Question about Comp Pick calculation formula

[lkelly]

I know that the comp pick formula isn't a well documented obvious thing, but in general, how does it work for the Tyron Smith contract? It's a base value of $6.5M with a ton of incentives mostly tied to playing time. Is only the base factored in when they determine the comp pick equivalent next year? Or if he starts every game and makes the bulk of closer to $20M is that then used? Could make a big difference in the round of the comp pick.

Any historical examples of this variance that can be referenced?

 

[jazzcat22]

32 comp picks are given out each year. No team gets more than 4.

They are based on the final contract value. If he meets the incentives, then chance are we get a comp pick. If not, and only gets the base value, chances are it will not qualify in the top 32.

 

[jazzcat22]

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

Of course this is not up to date and is only a very early projection.

There are some links at the top of the article that will help explain this. I believe one of them gives a shout out to AdamJT13 that they used his formula to use.
He used to post on here giving us the comp picks status. And he was never wrong.

 

[MikeT22]

32 comp picks are given out each year. No team gets more than 4.

They are based on the final contract value. If he meets the incentives, then chance are we get a comp pick. If not, and only gets the base value, chances are it will not qualify in the top 32.

Yeah, for players no team can receive more than 4. But you can receive additional comp picks if you a minority gets hired as a HC or GM.

49ers have 5 extra picks this year.

 

[jazzcat22]

Currently for those that are click challenged at this moment.

We could have 3 - 5ths, and a 6th round for comp picks. No other NFCE team has any so far.
If Tyron meets some incentives, that could go to a 4th.

We are currently the comp picks champs on our division. But it does not make us better.

 

[lkelly]

So my question wasn't around how many picks a team can get, etc. It was the dollar value which gets calculated into the round of the pick. It sounds like the pick will potentially improve (provided Dallas doesn't go on a free agent signing frenzy - fat chance) if he meets the incentives. There's a big difference betwen $6.5M APY and $20M APY.

 

[jujoboys]

32 comp picks are given out each year. No team gets more than 4.

They are based on the final contract value. If he meets the incentives, then chance are we get a comp pick. If not, and only gets the base value, chances are it will not qualify in the top 32.

Over the Cap has a 2025 projection. Actually, if Tyron stays at $6.5 million we are projected to get a 6th round pick right now. Starting at John Simpson signed by the Ravens there are currently 13 players making $6 million or less that qualify for 6th or 7th round picks so there are quite a few players (in the future) that would have to be signed for $6.5 million or more to remove Tyron from the equation. There are a lot of teams that lost players to contracts of $6.5 milion or more but plenty of those are cancelled out because that team that lost a player signed an equivalent player to replace them. Right now these are our projected comp picks for 2025.

5th for Tyler Biadasz
5th for Dorance Armstrong
6th for Tony Pollard
6th for Tyron Smith

If Tyron plays 71% of the snaps like he did last year then his compensation goes to $12.25 million and his comp pick goes from a 6th round pick to a 5th round pick. I think Smith plays the 12.2 games and we end up with three 5ths and one 6th.

 

[jujoboys]

So my question wasn't around how many picks a team can get, etc. It was the dollar value which gets calculated into the round of the pick. It sounds like the pick will potentially improve (provided Dallas doesn't go on a free agent signing frenzy - fat chance) if he meets the incentives. There's a big difference betwen $6.5M APY and $20M APY.

Tyron is set to net us a 6th round comp pick at $6.5 million. If he plays 71% of the snaps like he did for Dallas last year then his salary increases to $12.25 million and his comp pick moves to a 5th round pick. No way he plays enough to get to $20 million.

 

[jazzcat22]

So my question wasn't around how many picks a team can get, etc. It was the dollar value which gets calculated into the round of the pick. It sounds like the pick will potentially improve (provided Dallas doesn't go on a free agent signing frenzy - fat chance) if he meets the incentives. There's a big difference betwen $6.5M APY and $20M APY.

Right now a $6.5 million may not bring a comp pick. Over the cap site shows his contract at $12 million or so, and a 5th round comp pick.
However, another team lost a player with a contract a little over $13 million and a possible 4th round comp pick.
So Tyron's meeting incentive will get us a 4th, and possibly a 3rd. As a Buffalo player is at a $13 million deal and listed as a 3rd.

Of course all of this can change.

 

[jazzcat22]

Over the Cap has a 2025 projection. Actually, if Tyron stays at $6.5 million we are projected to get a 6th round pick right now. Starting at John Simpson signed by the Ravens there are currently 13 players making $6 million or less that qualify for 6th or 7th round picks so there are quite a few players (in the future) that would have to be signed for $6.5 million or more to remove Tyron from the equation. There are a lot of teams that lost players to contracts of $6.5 milion or more but plenty of those are cancelled out because that team that lost a player signed an equivalent player to replace them. Right now these are our projected comp picks for 2025.

5th for Tyler Biadasz
5th for Dorance Armstrong
6th for Tony Pollard
6th for Tyron Smith

If Tyron plays 71% of the snaps like he did last year then his compensation goes to $12.25 million and his comp pick goes from a 6th round pick to a 5th round pick. I think Smith plays the 12.2 games and we end up with three 5ths and one 6th.

Look at it again. It has been updated.

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

 

[jujoboys]

Look at it again. It has been updated.

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

The 5th round comp pick they are showing for Tyron Smith assumes he plays 71% of the snaps like last year and makes $12.25 million. Right now we are set to get a 6th round comp pick at $6.5 million and if he plays more his salary goes up and the comp pick gets better. Scroll down to the team area and you will see it shows Tyron with a $12.25 million salary.

 

[ThatJerryKid]

Over the Cap has a 2025 projection. Actually, if Tyron stays at $6.5 million we are projected to get a 6th round pick right now. Starting at John Simpson signed by the Ravens there are currently 13 players making $6 million or less that qualify for 6th or 7th round picks so there are quite a few players (in the future) that would have to be signed for $6.5 million or more to remove Tyron from the equation. There are a lot of teams that lost players to contracts of $6.5 milion or more but plenty of those are cancelled out because that team that lost a player signed an equivalent player to replace them. Right now these are our projected comp picks for 2025.

5th for Tyler Biadasz
5th for Dorance Armstrong
6th for Tony Pollard
6th for Tyron Smith

If Tyron plays 71% of the snaps like he did last year then his compensation goes to $12.25 million and his comp pick goes from a 6th round pick to a 5th round pick. I think Smith plays the 12.2 games and we end up with three 5ths and one 6th.

Nice!! Don’t sign anybody. Trade our first for a 2nd this year and a 1st next year. We can rebuild this team in 1.5 years. Trey Lance time!!

 

[Creeper]

Because Tyron is a 10 year vet or more, the most the Cowboys can get for his FA departure is a 5th round pick, no matter how much he makes, how much he plays, or how well he plays. It is one more quirk in the rules. Maybe it is in their to give teams a tiny bit more incentive to keep aging vets on the team? I don't know but I wish they would do more for players who have been with the same team for years only to leave when they get older for CAP reasons.

 

[lkelly]

Because Tyron is a 10 year vet or more, the most the Cowboys can get for his FA departure is a 5th round pick, no matter how much he makes, how much he plays, or how well he plays. It is one more quirk in the rules. Maybe it is in their to give teams a tiny bit more incentive to keep aging vets on the team? I don't know but I wish they would do more for players who have been with the same team for years only to leave when they get older for CAP reasons.

Interesting if that rule is in place as sites have Cousins bringing in a 3rd round comp pick due to his salary, but he's been in the league since 2012.

Edit: Ah, the exception for QBS:

• Players who have ten or more accrued seasons may only yield a maximum of a 5th round compensatory pick, even if their actual value would otherwise be assigned higher. See Alan Faneca in 2009, who only awarded Pittsburgh with a 5th round pick instead of a 3rd despite his contract, playing time, and postseason honors. However, App. V, §4 revealed that this rule does not apply to quarterbacks.

 

[fivetwos]

Continues to amaze me how people think comp picks mean much at all.

The highest any pick could possibly be is at the end of the third round.

The highest one they ever got was for Byron Jones and turned it into Nashon Wright.

Take a look at what they have done in the third round in the last handful of years overall and tell me there’s something to be excited about.

 

[lkelly]

Continues to amaze me how people think comp picks mean much at all.

The highest any pick could possibly be is at the end of the third round.

The highest one they ever got was for Byron Jones and turned it into Nashon Wright.

Take a look at what they have done in the third round in the last handful of years overall and tell me there’s something to be excited about.

Well, Dak Prescott was selected with a comp pick. Whether that triggers you and others is another discussion entirely.

Tom Brady was a comp pick. There's a list of a number of very impactful players including ones that signed top of the market free agent contracts, made numerous Pro Bowls, and won Super Bowl MVPs. In the end, they represent additional picks and with that another chance to add talent. Whether the GM is adept at finding day 3 talent is pretty critical of course. Some late picks may be Nashon Wright, some may be DeRon Bland.

 

[fivetwos]

Well, Dak Prescott was selected with a comp pick. Whether that triggers you and others is another discussion entirely.

Tom Brady was a comp pick. There's a list of a number of very impactful players including ones that signed top of the market free agent contracts, made numerous Pro Bowls, and won Super Bowl MVPs. In the end, they represent additional picks and with that another chance to add talent. Whether the GM is adept at finding day 3 talent is pretty critical of course. Some late picks may be Nashon Wright, some may be DeRon Bland.

Yeah sure, but it’s not as if it’s a franchise turning event. It’s a lottery ticket, and one of those very longshot ones.

 

[BotchedLobotomy]

 

[Vinnie2u]

Soooo let’s say Dakota becomes a free agent and signs a 60 million dollars a year contract somewhere else. I’m not advocating this.. asking for a friend. What’s the highest round we can get ..

 

[Chasing6]

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

Of course this is not up to date and is only a very early projection.

There are some links at the top of the article that will help explain this. I believe one of them gives a shout out to AdamJT13 that they used his formula to use.
He used to post on here giving us the comp picks status. And he was never wrong.

Those 3 potential 5th round comp picks next year = Championship!!!