Question about Drafting Philosophy

[Zordon]

Spent sometime on BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1 last night looking up prospects. They have a section on there where they compare the prospects from last year's draft to this year's draft. Here are a couple of examples:

2014 Defensive Tackle prospects vs 2013
Louis Nix < Sheldon Richardson
Timmy Jernigan < Star Lotulelei
Ra'Shede Hageman = Sharrif Floyd
Aaron Donald = Sylvester Williams
Ego Ferguson < Kawann Short
Anthony Johnson < Johnathan Hankins
Will Sutton > Bennie Logan
DaQuan Jones < John Jenkins

2012 Center prospects vs 2013
Travis Swanson < Travis Frederick
Weston Richburg > Brian Schwenke
Marcus Martin > Barrett Jones
Tyler Larsen = Khaled Holmes
Bryan Stork > Eric Kush
Russell Bodine > Jeff Baca
Gabe Ikard > T.J. Johnson
James Stone > Braxston Cave

2014 prospects vs 2013
Sammy Watkins > Tavon Austin
Mike Evans > DeAndre Hopkins
Marqise Lee > Cordarrelle Patterson
Kelvin Benjamin > Justin Hunter
Odell Beckham, Jr. > Robert Woods
Jarvis Landry > Aaron Dobson
Allen Robinson < Keenan Allen
Jordan Matthews = Terrance Williams

My question is do you think one of the responsibilities of the mgmt/scouts is to look ahead at future draft classes and try to match up position needs with the year those positions are deep? For instances it looks like we got a center in the right year as this year is weak. On the other hand it sucks we have so much need at DE and DT the same year both position groups are weak in the draft. Do you consider this poor planning or just how the chips fell?

 

[BigStar]

I am happy with Frederick (of course) and our scouts should be aware of the depth or talent of one draft class over another (position wise). Richardson/Star were out of reach, and Logan/Warford would've made a lot more sense than Escobar. Warford wasn't on our board yada yada. That's interesting that they rate Donald as being equal to Sly Williams whom I also liked. Hageman scares me bc of the passion/attitude rumors. Considering our draft board was constructed for a 3-4 DL in 2013, who knows tbh. McClay better bring his A game.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

I can't really buy this because they're using hindsight to judge last year's picks instead of comparing 2013 to 2014 from a pre-draft perspective. For example, they're downgrading Shariff Floyd now when they were way high on him last year. Also, they're rating Travis Frederick much higher now than they were before the draft.

 

[cowboys1981]

We will be fine. I wouldn't say the draft class is weak on the DL front when you have quality pass rushers who are mocked to going in rounds 2-3. Adding Melton really helps us draft day. Adding Donald gives us another young, formidable player who can impact the interior line. This team has been missing that for some time now.

I'm confident we'll add some key players in this draft that'll have an immediate impact.

 

[Doc50]

We will be fine. I wouldn't say the draft class is weak on the DL front when you have quality pass rushers who are mocked to going in rounds 2-3. Adding Melton really helps us draft day. Adding Donald gives us another young, formidable player who can impact the interior line. This team has been missing that for some time now.

I'm confident we'll add some key players in this draft that'll have an immediate impact.

I think Donald will be gone, though -- the Bears need him now more than ever (at #15).

So, we could trade down and still get Jernigan or Sutton, and then take a DE like Crichton. Would create a lot of stability and be a major upgrade.

 

[xwalker]

Spent sometime on BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1 last night looking up prospects. They have a section on there where they compare the prospects from last year's draft to this year's draft. Here are a couple of examples:

2014 Defensive Tackle prospects vs 2013
Louis Nix < Sheldon Richardson
Timmy Jernigan < Star Lotulelei
Ra'Shede Hageman = Sharrif Floyd
Aaron Donald = Sylvester Williams
Ego Ferguson < Kawann Short
Anthony Johnson < Johnathan Hankins
Will Sutton > Bennie Logan
DaQuan Jones < John Jenkins

2012 Center prospects vs 2013
Travis Swanson < Travis Frederick
Weston Richburg > Brian Schwenke
Marcus Martin > Barrett Jones
Tyler Larsen = Khaled Holmes
Bryan Stork > Eric Kush
Russell Bodine > Jeff Baca
Gabe Ikard > T.J. Johnson
James Stone > Braxston Cave

2014 prospects vs 2013
Sammy Watkins > Tavon Austin
Mike Evans > DeAndre Hopkins
Marqise Lee > Cordarrelle Patterson
Kelvin Benjamin > Justin Hunter
Odell Beckham, Jr. > Robert Woods
Jarvis Landry > Aaron Dobson
Allen Robinson < Keenan Allen
Jordan Matthews = Terrance Williams

My question is do you think one of the responsibilities of the mgmt/scouts is to look ahead at future draft classes and try to match up position needs with the year those positions are deep? For instances it looks like we got a center in the right year as this year is weak. On the other hand it sucks we have so much need at DE and DT the same year both position groups are weak in the draft. Do you consider this poor planning or just how the chips fell?

I guess they're just comparing based on where they are projected to be drafted because many of those are not similar players.

Nix is not remotely similar to Richardson and Donald is not similar to Sylvester Williams.

 

[Alexander]

Spent sometime on BAN-INCOMING-IN-3-2-1 last night looking up prospects. They have a section on there where they compare the prospects from last year's draft to this year's draft. Here are a couple of examples:

2014 Defensive Tackle prospects vs 2013
Louis Nix < Sheldon Richardson
Timmy Jernigan < Star Lotulelei
Ra'Shede Hageman = Sharrif Floyd
Aaron Donald = Sylvester Williams
Ego Ferguson < Kawann Short
Anthony Johnson < Johnathan Hankins
Will Sutton > Bennie Logan
DaQuan Jones < John Jenkins

2012 Center prospects vs 2013
Travis Swanson < Travis Frederick
Weston Richburg > Brian Schwenke
Marcus Martin > Barrett Jones
Tyler Larsen = Khaled Holmes
Bryan Stork > Eric Kush
Russell Bodine > Jeff Baca
Gabe Ikard > T.J. Johnson
James Stone > Braxston Cave

2014 prospects vs 2013
Sammy Watkins > Tavon Austin
Mike Evans > DeAndre Hopkins
Marqise Lee > Cordarrelle Patterson
Kelvin Benjamin > Justin Hunter
Odell Beckham, Jr. > Robert Woods
Jarvis Landry > Aaron Dobson
Allen Robinson < Keenan Allen
Jordan Matthews = Terrance Williams

My question is do you think one of the responsibilities of the mgmt/scouts is to look ahead at future draft classes and try to match up position needs with the year those positions are deep? For instances it looks like we got a center in the right year as this year is weak. On the other hand it sucks we have so much need at DE and DT the same year both position groups are weak in the draft. Do you consider this poor planning or just how the chips fell?

Take this example.

Bad QB year and you need a QB? Is a vet stopgap and waiting better than forcing a Christian Ponder pick or a Brandon Weeden pick? I think a lot of teams saw last year's QB class coming and that is why you saw what you did the previous year.

Teams also were glad to take trades for 2014 draft picks as it was projected to be strong.

 

[DFWJC]

Trying to project players a year out is pretty dicey.

Plus, these ratings by Walter have no basis on reality at all. They have no idea how these players are going to pan out compared to players with one year under their belt.

I suspect it's what xw was saying in the post before this one.

fwiw, I did really like Sly Williams last year.

 

[thunderpimp91]

Very interesting question. My guess would be yes they do take future draft classes into consideration, but very little. Its such a win now type attitude around the league that teams will take the best player in a position of need regardless of strength of the class. No coach/GM is ever safe from losing their jobs from one bad season (see Cleveland). Plus if you have lets say a D line player who you really like in the 2015 draft. You skip over the 2014 D line prospect you had your eye on and sign a run of the mill free agent for a year. Come 2015 your new D line prospect might be a top 10 pick. If you had a good 2014 season you wont be in position to get him, and if your team is then you might be out of a job. Best to address the need right away id say. The exception to that is replacing older players. For example lets say Doug Frees contract is up after next season(id have to look up when its actually up). Do I draft his replacement in 2014 or wait until 2015? That's where this question really comes into play.

 

[visionary]

Zordon, i hope you didnt ask the question that i think you just asked

we have a GM who cant even determine how strong THIS years draft is at various positions and you expect him to project about future years?

take pity on me, i am trying to eat

 

[reddyuta]

Zordon, i hope you didnt ask the question that i think you just asked

we have a GM who cant even determine how strong THIS years draft is at various positions and you expect him to project about future years?

take pity on me, i am trying to eat

Why blame jerry for everything? The scouts have been terrible and they never get the blame.why they insist on these small school duds who have no chance in the NFl is beyond me.

 

[visionary]

Why blame jerry for everything? The scouts have been terrible and they never get the blame.why they insist on these small school duds who have no chance in the NFl is beyond me.

what you say is entirely possible, however, what we know by his own admission is that jerry is the final decision maker and has been known to over-rule scouts. also, by design, they have made the decision-making hierarchy so fuzzy at valley ranch so that you canot point to one person and say, "he is the GM so this should have been his responsibility". this is done because all involved (jerry, stephen, jason, and perhaps others) are so incompetent they always want that little sliver of doubt in your mind that someone else was at fault.

when this happens, by default, fans will blame the most prominent person, and that is jerry

 

[lkelly]

I think I also read that Tom Brady < Brock Huard.

Seems legit.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Since I believe in trying to draft BPA as purely as possible, I think it would be insane to adjust your draft based on perceptions of what next year's draft might look like.

 

[Zordon]

Take this example.

Bad QB year and you need a QB? Is a vet stopgap and waiting better than forcing a Christian Ponder pick or a Brandon Weeden pick? I think a lot of teams saw last year's QB class coming and that is why you saw what you did the previous year.

Teams also were glad to take trades for 2014 draft picks as it was projected to be strong.

Yeah you get my point. Would it be better to sign a couple of JAGs like Mincey then to reach on premium picks for a weak DE class? I say yes.

Ideally the mgmt is looking 2-3 years down the line and projecting strengths/weaknesses for future drafts and using that information to adjust how they go about free agency.

 

[dcstands4]

The dline in this class isn't weak at all yes there seems to be clowney and everyone else but there is the possibility that if we wanted to we could Draft 2 dline starters in the first 2 rounds.

 

[Doomsday101]

Trying to project players a year out is pretty dicey.

Plus, these ratings by Walter have no basis on reality at all. They have no idea how these players are going to pan out compared to players with one year under their belt.

I suspect it's what xw was saying in the post before this one.

fwiw, I did really like Sly Williams last year.

I agree, SR you know will be in the draft but no one knows which underclassman will declare for the draft. Draft is a crap shoot to start with and while I have no doubts scouts look at many of these kids 2 and 3 years before they enter the draft but to project next years draft today is not going to help much when there are question you don't know in terms of who is coming out

 

[burmafrd]

considering the best drafts get you only about a 40% success rate on average trying to complicate it even more is just plain dumb

 

[conner01]

i don't think this class is weak at dline. the dt's are plentiful and talented. the de's are weak as there are so few who are starter ready i think but this is a good year to be drafting dt's

 

[DFWJC]

i don't think this class is weak at dline. the dt's are plentiful and talented. the de's are weak as there are so few who are starter ready i think but this is a good year to be drafting dt's

I agree. It looks like a deep class at Dline to me