Quick Hits

[jterrell]

Trading for Cassel: Dallas was able to do this (and C-Mike) because they lost Harris, Durant, Parnell and Murray in free agency. Adding only Hardy as a FA starter. Simple math suggests they'll get a couple late round picks back. They know they don't have 10-12 spots up for grabs on this roster so adding proven NFL talent for late picks is just a good use of those picks.

Run game: As Murray has proven in Philly the running game is a group effort. Our OL has been pretty bad (by their elite standards) honestly. All those penalties were insane and Zack Martin has been far below his play of last season. But it is very early. That run game should improve in Dallas.

Injuries: I think the injuries puts Dallas somewhere middle of the league in talent. But they know how to win now and have an edge in coaching on most teams. I think it is fair to ask them to go 5-3 over 8 games minus Romo/Dez.

 

[Direwolf63]

Trading for Cassel: Dallas was able to do this (and C-Mike) because they lost Harris, Durant, Parnell and Murray in free agency. Adding only Hardy as a FA starter. Simple math suggests they'll get a couple late round picks back. They know they don't have 10-12 spots up for grabs on this roster so adding proven NFL talent for late picks is just a good use of those picks.

Run game: As Murray has proven in Philly the running game is a group effort. Our OL has been pretty bad (by their elite standards) honestly. All those penalties were insane and Zack Martin has been far below his play of last season. But it is very early. That run game should improve in Dallas.

Injuries: I think the injuries puts Dallas somewhere middle of the league in talent. But they know how to win now and have an edge in coaching on most teams. I think it is fair to ask them to go 5-3 over 8 games minus Romo/Dez.

I think Martin's neck injury is bothering him more than he or the team is letting on. And it is affecting his play. It doesn't excuse the penalties though. The Eagles have a very good d-line. They give our o-line problems last year as well. Hopefully the o-line can clean things up in a hurry. They must because the running game will be a huge part of the offense that the bus driver QB has to manage.

I agree that as it stands today, this is a .500 team. If the QB doesn't turn the ball over, we should win as much as we lose until Romo/Dez return.

 

[jazzcat22]

Good point about the use of players vs. late round draft picks.
Right now we have 10 picks if we get 4 comp picks. Our 6th to SF, or we would have had 11.
Could be 9 with conditional 7th pick to Seattle.
Would still be 9 with conditional swap of 5th and 6th with Raiders for Butler.

2017 swap of 5th & 7th for Cassell, conditional too, but I don't know what those conditions are.
I think this is pretty good dealing from our FO. I was not in favor of the trade to get Swaim, as I think we could have had him anyway, by not selecting Gibson. But that's in the past. And now glad we did it.
Seems Hanna is not 100%, and is in last year of his contract. Witten now a bit banged upped. So Swaim is some decent depth, and will get better.

FA's next year for comps in 2017 is far off, but we would have had 22 going into this year, but thorough Dez & T. Crawford signing, and 3 released, and 1 retired. We are at 16 FA's.
Not sure if Hayden or J. Crawford were signed to extend contracts or not.
But there is a good chance with the names on the list, we end up with 4 comp picks in 2017 also.
Players like, Hardy, RoMac, Claiborne, C. White, Dunbar, Berney, Mincey, McCray, Clutts, Wilber, Weededn, Hanna, Leary, Heath, Hayden, J. Crawford.
But how many of these will we sign, and how many will actually get contracts to qualify as a comp pick.

 

[LandryFan]

2017 swap of 5th & 7th for Cassell, conditional too, but I don't know what those conditions are.

In every report I saw, there were no conditions tied to the Cassell trade, it was our fifth for Cassell and their seventh (in 2017).

 

[gimmesix]

I think Martin's neck injury is bothering him more than he or the team is letting on. And it is affecting his play. It doesn't excuse the penalties though.

I wonder about this as well. It was a pretty serious stringer that's forced him to wear a collar. The collar is somewhat limiting in itself, but he might not have full range of motion in his neck yet.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Trading for Cassel: Dallas was able to do this (and C-Mike) because they lost Harris, Durant, Parnell and Murray in free agency. Adding only Hardy as a FA starter. Simple math suggests they'll get a couple late round picks back. They know they don't have 10-12 spots up for grabs on this roster so adding proven NFL talent for late picks is just a good use of those picks.

This is just a fundamental misunderstanding of how talent acquisition and the draft works. You don't want to have the same number of draft picks as number of possible roster spots. You want many many more draft picks than the number of roster spots available. The best, and only proven, way to draft 2 good players is to draft 10 players. This is especially true with late-round picks.

That said, I have no problem with the Swaim trade - they used a pick to draft a player, just one year early. The Cassell trade seems prudent and doesn't change the net number of picks. I dislike the Michael trade--the only thing he's "proven" is that he's not good enough to force his way into playing time. Same with the Butler trade. When you target a guy at a specific position to address an immediate need, you're not going to get as good talent as when you choose from all the options available to pick somebody (as you do at the actual draft).

 

[silver]

This is just a fundamental misunderstanding of how talent acquisition and the draft works. You don't want to have the same number of draft picks as number of possible roster spots. You want many many more draft picks than the number of roster spots available. The best, and only proven, way to draft 2 good players is to draft 10 players. This is especially true with late-round picks.

That said, I have no problem with the Swaim trade - they used a pick to draft a player, just one year early. The Cassell trade seems prudent and doesn't change the net number of picks. I dislike the Michael trade--the only thing he's "proven" is that he's not good enough to force his way into playing time. Same with the Butler trade. When you target a guy at a specific position to address an immediate need, you're not going to get as good talent as when you choose from all the options available to pick somebody (as you do at the actual draft).

Panic mode?

 

[jterrell]

This is just a fundamental misunderstanding of how talent acquisition and the draft works. You don't want to have the same number of draft picks as number of possible roster spots. You want many many more draft picks than the number of roster spots available. The best, and only proven, way to draft 2 good players is to draft 10 players. This is especially true with late-round picks.

That said, I have no problem with the Swaim trade - they used a pick to draft a player, just one year early. The Cassell trade seems prudent and doesn't change the net number of picks. I dislike the Michael trade--the only thing he's "proven" is that he's not good enough to force his way into playing time. Same with the Butler trade. When you target a guy at a specific position to address an immediate need, you're not going to get as good talent as when you choose from all the options available to pick somebody (as you do at the actual draft).

Again, it is simple math.

When Dallas drafts 10 and adds 12 more UDFA or drafts 7 and adds 15 more UDFA the odds really don't change for finding players unless the draft choices lost/gained are rounds 5 and higher. Each 6th rounder may have a 12% chance to make the final roster but each subsequent additional 6th rounder's odds would then go down. Put another way if 5 guys race the 3rd fastest guy has some set odds to win... need a guy to stumble, cramp up whatever. Have 10 guys race and 5 of them are all equal speed at a tie for 3rd fastest and yes they have a 'slightly' greater chance to win as a group but not individually.

They KNOW Cassel and CMike and others can make the roster so they've used future picks to alleviate any real risk.
Alleviating risk is how you win in player acquisition.

Dallas has spent a fortune studying other teams because the player pool of the actual NFL is much stronger than that of any college class.
I.E. the 55th best player on an NFL team(i.e. highly preferred practice squader) is odds on better than the 220th(about where r7 starts) best draftee an enormous percentage of the time. --and there are 32 of them at a given time.

Put another way Dallas has drafted 11 7th rounders in the past 5 drafts. Of those guys only Ken Bishop and Geoff Swaim are on the team or in the league. --The LB Nzeocha is on IR.... Having 4 or 5 of those picks doesn't really help if you only have a handful of roster spots to take. See Ben Gardner or anyone else Dallas has kinda liked of late but just couldn't keep due to numbers.

Also because of compensatory picks it becomes EVEN SMARTER to make these low cost moves and not wait on them to hit free agency where they count against you. Essentially you are spending a future pick to then net a future pick... so you are cherry picking guys you like now at no real true cost!!!

If Dallas signed CMike in free agency next year and then started him that would have counted against Dallas in supplemental tabulation. But as they traded for him and he sits largely inactive assuring the conditions are basically null he can challenge to start next year if Dallas decides it does not want to pay/draft anyone else and needs a better option. By the same token keeping Cassel doesn't count against us next year if we feel he is the #2 had we signed him in free agency he does.