Rafael Vela: Can We Expect a “Wade Phillips Effect?”

ethiostar

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I don't know if this has been posted already but it is a great read.

Mods, i couldn't post in the Daily Zone, so i posted it here. Please feel free to move it to the appropriate place.

http://theboysblog.com/

The Cowboys’ defensive players can barely contain themselves. They love the new Phillips’ 34 scheme they’ll play this year. They’ll have more freedom, play more aggressively.

Okay, but will it translate into better play on the field?

Wade Phillips has a lengthy track record, so I’ve looked at the changes in his teams’ won-loss records and defensive performances at each of his five previous NFL stops. Note that in both Denver and Buffalo, Phillips was elevated to the head coaching role, so I’m not taking those two seasons into account. I want to see the difference in year ones of Wade Phillips’ resume.

Stop One — Philadelphia, ‘86 through ‘88

Jeff Fisher and Gregg Williams come to mind when you think Buddy Ryan disciples, but Phillips was Ryan’s first DC when Buddy took over the Eagles.

Team Record Pts. Allowed Rank RushRank Pass Rank
‘85 Eagles 7-9 310 10th 5th 21st
‘86 Eagles5-10-1 312 12th 15th 19th

This is the only stop on Wade’s itinerary where his team dropped in wins during his first year on the job. The defensive performance from Marion Campbell’s ‘85 team to Ryan’s ‘86 team was about the same, allowing 310 points the first year and 312 the second. Note that Phillips was running Ryan’s 46 not the 34 he and daddy Bum Phillips perfected in Houston during the “Love ‘Ya Blue” ’70s.

Stop Two — Denver, 1989 through 1994

Phillips gets control of a 34, taking over for long time 34 guru Joe Collier under Dan Reeves.

Team Record Pts. Allowed Rank RushRank Pass Rank
‘88 Broncos 8-8 352 20th 27th 7th
‘89 Broncos 11-5 226 1st 7th 3rd

Phillips deserves a ton of credit for this turnaround. He adds rookie Steve Atwater to a veteran defense that has already gone to two Super Bowls under Collier and cuts their points allowed by 126 points, almost eight points per game. Phillips makes a huge improvement in rush defense, pulling the Broncos from 27th to 7th.

Stop Three — Buffalo, 1995 through 2000

Phillips enters a situation similar to Denver’s. He takes over a veteran defense that has already gone to four Super Bowls under 34 DC Walt Corey. The Bills, much like the ’90s Cowboys, dominate on the power of their offense, which ranked 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 7th its four Super Bowl years. The Bills’ defensive rankings those four seasons — in points allowed — were 6th, 19th, 14th and 5th. They had fallen to 22nd in Corey’s last year on the job.

Team Record Pts. Allowed Rank Rush Rank Pass Rank
‘94 Bills 7-9 356 22nd 8th 21st
‘95 Bills 10-6 335 12th 11th 20th

A modest improvement. Phillips got the aging defense to play at a slightly better level, as the Bills were 7-0 in games decided by six points or less.

Stop Four — Atlanta, 2002-2003

Phillips makes his second tour under Dan Reeves and revives the young Falcons D.

Team Record Pts. Allowed Rank Rush Rank Pass Rank
‘01 Falcons 7-9 377 24st 21st 13th
‘02 Falcons 9-6-1 314 8th 23rd 16th

Stop Five, San Diego 2004 - 2006

Phillips joins Marty Schottenheimer and contributes to an 8 win turnaround. Players like Drew Brees say he made the biggest difference in the transformation.

Team Record Pts. Allowed Rank Rush Rank Pass Rank
‘03 Chargers 4-12 441 31st 26th 23rd
‘04 Chargers12-4 313 11th 1st 32nd

Brees might be right. The ‘04 Chargers D had nowhere to go but up, ranking next to last in ‘03. Still, Phillips made the change greatly on scheme. Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips and Luis Castillo were all still in college at this point. Phillips used NT Jamal Williams as the anchor in his league-best run defense, contributing to a 128 drop in points allowed.

What can we conclude from this?

1. In his last four stops, where Phillips ran his own scheme, his teams improved an average of four wins a season, adding three each in Denver and Buffalo, two and a half in Atlanta and eight in San Deigo.

2. All his defenses reduced points allowed. Where the defenses were already pretty good, he improved them modestly. Where they were bad, he made vast improvements. The worst any of his first-year Ds finished was 12th in points allowed.

The ‘06 Cowboys were 20th. Draw your own conclusions where a top 12 to top 10 finish would leave the team, assuming good health on the offensive side of the ball.

3. Phillips’ attacking style does not come at the expense of run defense. Notice the turnarounds in Denver and San Diego, where his teams went from terrible to excellent in rush defense and reaped the benefits in the standings.

4. Weak secondaries have bedeviled Phillips. He hasn’t had a top-notch coverage group since his Denver days, when he had Mark Haynes, Steve Atwater and Dennis Smith in deep patrol. His Dallas team, with all its foibles, has a much better secondary than last year’s Chargers unit. He didn’t have a corner with Terence Newman’s skills at the Chargers. And though Roy Williams has flaws, he’s still better than any safety Phillips coached in San Diego.

Nothing is guaranteed, but if Phillips replicates his first-year defensive performances, we have every right to be as optimistic as the players.
 

superpunk

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That is one of the most encouraging things, that his track record breeds immediate results. I'm sure this was something Jerry considered before hiring him afor the short term.

The other thing that is fantastically encouraging is that our secondary is definitely vastly more talented than San Diego's. In SD, the only way they were stopping the pass was with pressure, because Terrence Kiel and Quentin Jammrer and new (super athletic savior) Antonio Cromartie sure weren't stopping anyone. I have a feeling alot more of those hurried passes could result in picks for our playmakers in the secondary.
 

ethiostar

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superpunk;1502729 said:
That is one of the most encouraging things, that his track record breeds immediate results. I'm sure this was something Jerry considered before hiring him afor the short term.

The other thing that is fantastically encouraging is that our secondary is definitely vastly more talented than San Diego's. In SD, the only way they were stopping the pass was with pressure, because Terrence Kiel and Quentin Jammrer and new (super athletic savior) Antonio Cromartie sure weren't stopping anyone. I have a feeling alot more of those hurried passes could result in picks for our playmakers in the secondary.

That is even more encouraging given the fact that based on his recent history, the 'pass rush' under WP doesn't improve, even gets worse. I guess that's the downside of a very aggressive, pass rushing defense. I do believe, however, we have one great CB in Newman and an above average one in Henry. With the addition of Hamlin we should be able to put up more of a fight than San Diego has in the past couple of years. For the record, I am a little worried.
 

Chocolate Lab

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ethiostar;1502734 said:
That is even more encouraging given the fact that based on his recent history, the 'pass rush' under WP doesn't improve, even gets worse.

Huh? :confused:
 

superpunk

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^^^^^Yes...explanation...I can't make heads or tails out of that either.

I assumed it was because I'm a moron - but CLab can't understand it either, so bupkus.
 

ethiostar

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superpunk;1502747 said:
^^^^^Yes...explanation...I can't make heads or tails out of that either.

I assumed it was because I'm a moron - but CLab can't understand it either, so bupkus.

I think we know who the moron is now don't we? Hint: it's neither you nor CLab.....:D
 
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