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The Grand Poobah
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Who’s Legit?
By Rafael Vela
Looking at the playoff rolls I think the Super Bowl field is pretty short, though not as short as folks might think. Using my formula of scoring offenses and scoring defenses (over 90% of Super Bowl teams ranked in the top ten in scoring offense and defense) and only one champion, the ‘06 Colts, had a defense ranked lower than 12th in scoring defense, I’m paring the field.
AFC
The experts peg this as a two team race, but by my schema, nearly every AFC team has a shot, however modest. Consider:
The Top Tier
1. Patriots (1st offense, 2nd defense)
Their elderly defense looked shaky against the Eagles and Ravens, but has bounced back nicely. It’s hard to argue with top two offensive and defensive scoring records. However…
2. Colts (3rd offense, 4th defense)
How close are the Colts to 15-0? This close — Peyton Manning threw six picks against the Chargers, yet the Colts only lost 23-21 because Adam Vinatieri missed a 29 yard field goal in the last two minutes. They had the Pats right where they wanted them down 20-10 at home. Then their receiving corps fell apart.
Indy had a perfect game plan — spread the Pats secondary and them hammer Joseph Addai. He averaged nearly 7 yards a carry in the first half and could not be stopped rushing or receiving. But when Anthony Gonzalez went down early in the second half, the Pats defended the run, doubling Dallas Clark and stacking the line for Addai. (Marvin Harrison didn’t dress that day.) When Manning needed game-icing first downs in the 4th quarter he was throwing to guys like Aubrey Moorehead, who let him down.
Imagine Dallas trying to protect a 4th quarter lead with T.O. and Patrick Crayton on the bench and you get the idea. This year’s Colts are much better than last year’s champs and I would not be at all surprised if they repeated.
Second Tier, but Still a Threat
3. Jaguars — (5th offense, 6th defense)
Top ten in both categories and they’re on a roll, winning six of their last seven, including an impressive win in Pittsburgh where they outslugged the Steelers. They’ll likely play San Diego in the first round, a team they’ve beaten already. That would send them to Indy, however. The Colts swept them this year, though the second game was a 28-25 grinder.
4. Steelers — (8th offense, 3rd defense)
A fourth AFC team to achieve the double dip. But the Steelers have looked poor against top teams lately. The Pats didn’t look too troubled beating them and the Jags beat them up. Losing Willie Parker hurts them.
5. Chargers — (6th offense, 7th defense)
How about that? Five AFC teams in the top ten in offensive and scoring defense. The Chargers have rebounded nicely after a slow start but they were outmanned against the Pats and the Colts had them on the run in the second half. I don’t trust Philip Rivers this year.
NFC
The Top Tier
1. Dallas (2nd offense, 12th defense)
The defense has risen steadily in the scoring category and now stands just outside the top ten. Having healthy starting corners makes all the difference in the world. So would a healthy T.O. and Andre Gurode.
2. Green Bay (4th offense, 8th defense)
Still legit, despite their blowout in Chicago.
3. Seattle (11th offense, 5th defense)
Don’t discount these guys, who have been Dallas in reverse. Their injuries were on the offensive side of the ball and now they’re on a roll, winning six of seven. They’ll likely beat whichever of Washington or Minnesota comes to visit them, setting up a Mike Holmgren homecoming — Seattle at Green Bay in the divisional round. His last playoff trip ended when Matt Hasselbeck predicted they would win, then threw the game deciding pick in overtime.
Again, don’t overlook them. They’ve got a good defense and have beaten Dallas twice in recent years, though both were close games played in Seattle.
Dark Horse
4. Tampa Bay (18th offense, 1st defense)
Defense matters and Tampa’s is salty, though their offense looks very pedestrian. And they would have to win two games on the road, where they are 3-5 this year.
Others
Overall, the AFC looks rather tight, though I still think it’s between the Pats and Colts. Then again, who thought the Colts would win last year? With so much quality conference wide, it will only take one upset to make the dominoes fall, as New England’s upset of San Diego last year opened the field.
In the NFC, I give Dallas a tiny edge over Green Bay and Seattle, because they’re going to be at home. But it’s a razor thin edge.
By Rafael Vela
Looking at the playoff rolls I think the Super Bowl field is pretty short, though not as short as folks might think. Using my formula of scoring offenses and scoring defenses (over 90% of Super Bowl teams ranked in the top ten in scoring offense and defense) and only one champion, the ‘06 Colts, had a defense ranked lower than 12th in scoring defense, I’m paring the field.
AFC
The experts peg this as a two team race, but by my schema, nearly every AFC team has a shot, however modest. Consider:
The Top Tier
1. Patriots (1st offense, 2nd defense)
Their elderly defense looked shaky against the Eagles and Ravens, but has bounced back nicely. It’s hard to argue with top two offensive and defensive scoring records. However…
2. Colts (3rd offense, 4th defense)
How close are the Colts to 15-0? This close — Peyton Manning threw six picks against the Chargers, yet the Colts only lost 23-21 because Adam Vinatieri missed a 29 yard field goal in the last two minutes. They had the Pats right where they wanted them down 20-10 at home. Then their receiving corps fell apart.
Indy had a perfect game plan — spread the Pats secondary and them hammer Joseph Addai. He averaged nearly 7 yards a carry in the first half and could not be stopped rushing or receiving. But when Anthony Gonzalez went down early in the second half, the Pats defended the run, doubling Dallas Clark and stacking the line for Addai. (Marvin Harrison didn’t dress that day.) When Manning needed game-icing first downs in the 4th quarter he was throwing to guys like Aubrey Moorehead, who let him down.
Imagine Dallas trying to protect a 4th quarter lead with T.O. and Patrick Crayton on the bench and you get the idea. This year’s Colts are much better than last year’s champs and I would not be at all surprised if they repeated.
Second Tier, but Still a Threat
3. Jaguars — (5th offense, 6th defense)
Top ten in both categories and they’re on a roll, winning six of their last seven, including an impressive win in Pittsburgh where they outslugged the Steelers. They’ll likely play San Diego in the first round, a team they’ve beaten already. That would send them to Indy, however. The Colts swept them this year, though the second game was a 28-25 grinder.
4. Steelers — (8th offense, 3rd defense)
A fourth AFC team to achieve the double dip. But the Steelers have looked poor against top teams lately. The Pats didn’t look too troubled beating them and the Jags beat them up. Losing Willie Parker hurts them.
5. Chargers — (6th offense, 7th defense)
How about that? Five AFC teams in the top ten in offensive and scoring defense. The Chargers have rebounded nicely after a slow start but they were outmanned against the Pats and the Colts had them on the run in the second half. I don’t trust Philip Rivers this year.
NFC
The Top Tier
1. Dallas (2nd offense, 12th defense)
The defense has risen steadily in the scoring category and now stands just outside the top ten. Having healthy starting corners makes all the difference in the world. So would a healthy T.O. and Andre Gurode.
2. Green Bay (4th offense, 8th defense)
Still legit, despite their blowout in Chicago.
3. Seattle (11th offense, 5th defense)
Don’t discount these guys, who have been Dallas in reverse. Their injuries were on the offensive side of the ball and now they’re on a roll, winning six of seven. They’ll likely beat whichever of Washington or Minnesota comes to visit them, setting up a Mike Holmgren homecoming — Seattle at Green Bay in the divisional round. His last playoff trip ended when Matt Hasselbeck predicted they would win, then threw the game deciding pick in overtime.
Again, don’t overlook them. They’ve got a good defense and have beaten Dallas twice in recent years, though both were close games played in Seattle.
Dark Horse
4. Tampa Bay (18th offense, 1st defense)
Defense matters and Tampa’s is salty, though their offense looks very pedestrian. And they would have to win two games on the road, where they are 3-5 this year.
Others
- Giants (14th offense, 14th defense)
- Commanders (19th offense, 13th defense)
- Vikings (12th offense, 10th defense)
Overall, the AFC looks rather tight, though I still think it’s between the Pats and Colts. Then again, who thought the Colts would win last year? With so much quality conference wide, it will only take one upset to make the dominoes fall, as New England’s upset of San Diego last year opened the field.
In the NFC, I give Dallas a tiny edge over Green Bay and Seattle, because they’re going to be at home. But it’s a razor thin edge.
..Well, on rare occasions, have my moments.
