If
Jason Garrett wants to keep his job, he’ll have to lead the Cowboys to the NFC Championship Game. NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport
tweets that Dallas will have to make the conference championship to prevent his firing.
https://www.profootballrumors.com/2019/12/latest-on-jason-garrett-cowboys
There is no possible way that he could know that.
I'm certain that the Cowboys have not made that decision at this point.
With the dynamic of Stephen Jones running the football operations but Jerry obviously being Jerry, there is no way to know to predict what will happen.
Personally, I'm convinced that Stephen Jones is adamantly apposed to giving Garrett another contract regardless of the season's outcome. He hates spending money and not getting a good return on investment.
Everything the past few years has been done based on the approach that Stephen Jones has defined in multiple radio interviews. The first major sign that SJones had been much more empowered was the Zack Martin over Johnny Football draft pick. Jerry loved Johnny but the pick ended up being an OG which is the least flashy and least Jerry-like 1st round pick possible.
SJones did lose on giving Dez the contract that he wanted; however, that appears to be the last time the Jerry has over-ridden SJones on any major decisions.
SJones negotiates all the big contracts including the DLaw contract and the on-going Dak and Cooper contracts. Jerry is completely removed from those other than the updates he gets from SJones and staff. The agent for DLaw said he basically had NO contact with Jerry in the negotiation process. SJones has also defined the free agency approach and was the architect of the Cooper trade.
The concept of keeping players on big contracts just because they were great in the past was a Jerry concept. SJones takes a business approach and moves on from older players and/or has them take a pay cut.
My Point:
With the unknown of the Stephen / Jerry dynamic and who will really make the final decision, it's impossible to know what will happen with the Cowboys Head Coaching situation.
If it was an option to just extend Garrett for 1 year, then maybe SJones would be more open to that option; however, it would require a 3-year contract just because the HC can't be seen as a lame duck again. I just don't think that SJones wants to commit to Garrett for 3 more years. He has seen that Garrett just does not have "it" with regards to being an NFL Head Coach.
Dumping the head coach is obviously on another level from player decisions. Even NFL owners that don't claim to be the GM get involved to some extent on those decisions.