Verdict
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Let's assume for the sake of argument that the Cowboys organization decides to avoid going for the big splash or instant gratification and tries to build this team through the draft so that we will have the money to resign Lee, Dez and a few other important pieces to remain competitive for the long haul and still give us a chance to win a Super Bowl this year.
I think despite the poor line play this past year it is reasonable to count on the top two players of Bernadeaux, Costa and Killa to serve as the starting center and backup. I'm not saying they would be world beaters but if healthy would be an improvement over last year.
I would pass on resigning Spencer in this scenario for cap reasons. I would also let Felix and Jenkins walk in free agency and I would not resign a top tier free agent. The effect of this may net us two additional 3rd round comp picks for next year. That is huge. It would give us five total picks in the first three rounds in 2014. That cannot be understated.
I think that the Cowboys may be faced with a huge decision at #18. Unless there is a guy that they are really crazy about at #18 I would definitely try to move back just a few spots and add another pick.
I would keep Ratliff because releasing him creates too much dead money and it is reasonable to assume that if healthy it prevents us from being held hostage to go defensive line early. We might be able to even trade back twice in the first round, still not drop out of the first round, add two picks and still get an instant impact player in the first round. Those picks could conceivably be 3rd rounders. That would leave us with a very late 1st round pick, a 2nd, three 3rd rounders, a 4th, 5th, and a 6th for 8 total picks.
That could still allow us to get five players in the first three rounds at impact positions like defensive tackle, defensive end, guard, right tackle and a safety all in the top three rounds.
It sounds like this draft's sweet spot for us might be from say picks 30 to 50. We may be able to get a guy we really want at most of our need positions in that range. I'm not sure that right tackle falls into that category but the others probably do.
If our draft guys really know as much as we hope hey do, then Sensy might be on borrowed time as well. If Matt Johnson turns out to be the player that the team thinks he is then suddenly we aren't held hostage at safety quite so much either. Guys are often found there in later rounds and maybe we get fortunate enough for a guy like like the OU safety falling to us in the 4th round.
Not reaching based on need is the key. I'm not saying pass on a sure fire impact player at 18 but it would sure be nice to get back some of the draft depth we lost in the trade up last year to get Mo.
Personally I think that running back will be a little bit higher priority than everyone else thinks it will be. If we trade back like I propose, a running back could easily be selected in the 3rd or 4th rounds instead of picking up a guy off the bottom end and hoping it works out.
I also think it is very reasonable to think that Crawford will become a very strong versatile player for us this year that gets starter time in various different roles in different situations.
Linebacker was assumed to be a strength of this team last year, and we will need less this year so we may not feel the need to draft a linebacker this year.
I'm not saying these are the answers but if we keep Ratliff and get contributions from the other young guys we drafted last year like Johnson, Crawford, and Hanna (which is what you would expect if our scouts are doing a good job) and if Berny turns out to be healthy and plays well then suddenly we don't appear to have as many holes and we are not nearly as pressed to reach for need.
Will we be Super Bowl favorites in the 2013 preseason? No, probably not. But we will have jettisoned bad contracts in Free (and maybe Sensy) AND also gotten another year of production out of Ratliff so that he can be shown the door with much less dead money in 2014 if necessary. We will not be staring down the barrel of the gun so to speak from now on due to resigning Spencer.
If we really wanted to prepare for a huge push in 2014 we could trade one of the 3rd rounders we netted in the trade down I referred to above for a 2nd rounder next year which would put us in the driver's seat in next year' draft with all our picks plus an additional second and two additional third round picks.
I think despite the poor line play this past year it is reasonable to count on the top two players of Bernadeaux, Costa and Killa to serve as the starting center and backup. I'm not saying they would be world beaters but if healthy would be an improvement over last year.
I would pass on resigning Spencer in this scenario for cap reasons. I would also let Felix and Jenkins walk in free agency and I would not resign a top tier free agent. The effect of this may net us two additional 3rd round comp picks for next year. That is huge. It would give us five total picks in the first three rounds in 2014. That cannot be understated.
I think that the Cowboys may be faced with a huge decision at #18. Unless there is a guy that they are really crazy about at #18 I would definitely try to move back just a few spots and add another pick.
I would keep Ratliff because releasing him creates too much dead money and it is reasonable to assume that if healthy it prevents us from being held hostage to go defensive line early. We might be able to even trade back twice in the first round, still not drop out of the first round, add two picks and still get an instant impact player in the first round. Those picks could conceivably be 3rd rounders. That would leave us with a very late 1st round pick, a 2nd, three 3rd rounders, a 4th, 5th, and a 6th for 8 total picks.
That could still allow us to get five players in the first three rounds at impact positions like defensive tackle, defensive end, guard, right tackle and a safety all in the top three rounds.
It sounds like this draft's sweet spot for us might be from say picks 30 to 50. We may be able to get a guy we really want at most of our need positions in that range. I'm not sure that right tackle falls into that category but the others probably do.
If our draft guys really know as much as we hope hey do, then Sensy might be on borrowed time as well. If Matt Johnson turns out to be the player that the team thinks he is then suddenly we aren't held hostage at safety quite so much either. Guys are often found there in later rounds and maybe we get fortunate enough for a guy like like the OU safety falling to us in the 4th round.
Not reaching based on need is the key. I'm not saying pass on a sure fire impact player at 18 but it would sure be nice to get back some of the draft depth we lost in the trade up last year to get Mo.
Personally I think that running back will be a little bit higher priority than everyone else thinks it will be. If we trade back like I propose, a running back could easily be selected in the 3rd or 4th rounds instead of picking up a guy off the bottom end and hoping it works out.
I also think it is very reasonable to think that Crawford will become a very strong versatile player for us this year that gets starter time in various different roles in different situations.
Linebacker was assumed to be a strength of this team last year, and we will need less this year so we may not feel the need to draft a linebacker this year.
I'm not saying these are the answers but if we keep Ratliff and get contributions from the other young guys we drafted last year like Johnson, Crawford, and Hanna (which is what you would expect if our scouts are doing a good job) and if Berny turns out to be healthy and plays well then suddenly we don't appear to have as many holes and we are not nearly as pressed to reach for need.
Will we be Super Bowl favorites in the 2013 preseason? No, probably not. But we will have jettisoned bad contracts in Free (and maybe Sensy) AND also gotten another year of production out of Ratliff so that he can be shown the door with much less dead money in 2014 if necessary. We will not be staring down the barrel of the gun so to speak from now on due to resigning Spencer.
If we really wanted to prepare for a huge push in 2014 we could trade one of the 3rd rounders we netted in the trade down I referred to above for a 2nd rounder next year which would put us in the driver's seat in next year' draft with all our picks plus an additional second and two additional third round picks.
