Reasonably possible optimistic scenario

Verdict

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Let's assume for the sake of argument that the Cowboys organization decides to avoid going for the big splash or instant gratification and tries to build this team through the draft so that we will have the money to resign Lee, Dez and a few other important pieces to remain competitive for the long haul and still give us a chance to win a Super Bowl this year.

I think despite the poor line play this past year it is reasonable to count on the top two players of Bernadeaux, Costa and Killa to serve as the starting center and backup. I'm not saying they would be world beaters but if healthy would be an improvement over last year.

I would pass on resigning Spencer in this scenario for cap reasons. I would also let Felix and Jenkins walk in free agency and I would not resign a top tier free agent. The effect of this may net us two additional 3rd round comp picks for next year. That is huge. It would give us five total picks in the first three rounds in 2014. That cannot be understated.

I think that the Cowboys may be faced with a huge decision at #18. Unless there is a guy that they are really crazy about at #18 I would definitely try to move back just a few spots and add another pick.

I would keep Ratliff because releasing him creates too much dead money and it is reasonable to assume that if healthy it prevents us from being held hostage to go defensive line early. We might be able to even trade back twice in the first round, still not drop out of the first round, add two picks and still get an instant impact player in the first round. Those picks could conceivably be 3rd rounders. That would leave us with a very late 1st round pick, a 2nd, three 3rd rounders, a 4th, 5th, and a 6th for 8 total picks.

That could still allow us to get five players in the first three rounds at impact positions like defensive tackle, defensive end, guard, right tackle and a safety all in the top three rounds.

It sounds like this draft's sweet spot for us might be from say picks 30 to 50. We may be able to get a guy we really want at most of our need positions in that range. I'm not sure that right tackle falls into that category but the others probably do.

If our draft guys really know as much as we hope hey do, then Sensy might be on borrowed time as well. If Matt Johnson turns out to be the player that the team thinks he is then suddenly we aren't held hostage at safety quite so much either. Guys are often found there in later rounds and maybe we get fortunate enough for a guy like like the OU safety falling to us in the 4th round.

Not reaching based on need is the key. I'm not saying pass on a sure fire impact player at 18 but it would sure be nice to get back some of the draft depth we lost in the trade up last year to get Mo.

Personally I think that running back will be a little bit higher priority than everyone else thinks it will be. If we trade back like I propose, a running back could easily be selected in the 3rd or 4th rounds instead of picking up a guy off the bottom end and hoping it works out.

I also think it is very reasonable to think that Crawford will become a very strong versatile player for us this year that gets starter time in various different roles in different situations.

Linebacker was assumed to be a strength of this team last year, and we will need less this year so we may not feel the need to draft a linebacker this year.

I'm not saying these are the answers but if we keep Ratliff and get contributions from the other young guys we drafted last year like Johnson, Crawford, and Hanna (which is what you would expect if our scouts are doing a good job) and if Berny turns out to be healthy and plays well then suddenly we don't appear to have as many holes and we are not nearly as pressed to reach for need.

Will we be Super Bowl favorites in the 2013 preseason? No, probably not. But we will have jettisoned bad contracts in Free (and maybe Sensy) AND also gotten another year of production out of Ratliff so that he can be shown the door with much less dead money in 2014 if necessary. We will not be staring down the barrel of the gun so to speak from now on due to resigning Spencer.

If we really wanted to prepare for a huge push in 2014 we could trade one of the 3rd rounders we netted in the trade down I referred to above for a 2nd rounder next year which would put us in the driver's seat in next year' draft with all our picks plus an additional second and two additional third round picks.
 
What do you mean by "for the sake of argument?" The approach you're proposing as hypothetical is what's actually been happening throughout the Jason Garrett Head Coaching era.

The only real big splash free agent pickup in the Garrett coaching era has been Carr, and that was a fantastic free agent signing.

Other than that Garrett has spent the last 2 seasons getting rid of dead money vet free agent holdovers from the Parcells/Phillips eras, and building the roster through the draft; do names like Dez Bryant, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Demarco Murray, Tyron Smith and Maurice Claiborne sound familiar?

Why should we expect this offseason to be different, especially when we have limited cap room?

What you're hoping will generally happen, will happen; the Cowboys will continue to build through the draft and NOT bring back "name" free agents that have worn out their welcome (I.e. Mike Jenkins, Felix Jones and Kevin Ogletree, to name a few).

But, they will bring back Spencer, as they should, because they can clear the cap space needed to keep him, and because it makes great sense in the NFL to bring back your top free agents that can still produce at a high level.
 
Verdict;5003949 said:
Let's assume for the sake of argument that the Cowboys organization decides to avoid going for the big splash or instant gratification and tries to build this team through the draft so that we will have the money to resign Lee, Dez and a few other important pieces to remain competitive for the long haul and still give us a chance to win a Super Bowl this year.
Good post.

It is good to keep the comp picks in the back of your mind when considering signing top Free Agents. I wouldn't make the decision totally based on the possible comp picks, but it could sway the decision.

I'm am curious on the possibility of a Franchise-and-trade with Spencer.

I do think that they will need to sign some low and mid level Free Agents.

I think that there are many many Free Agents that can contribute while only getting 1/3 or 1/4 or less than the annual salary of Spencer or Mike Jenkins.

I think that some players must remain this year due to their base salaries being either partially or completely guaranteed.
Ratliff
Sensabaugh
Livings

Cuts: Free, Connor and Spears all need to go due to salary/performance.
 
AMERICAS_FAN;5003956 said:
What do you mean by "for the sake of argument?" The approach you're proposing as hypothetical is what's actually been happening throughout the Jason Garrett Head Coaching era.

The only real big splash free agent pickup in the Garrett coaching era has been Carr, and that was a fantastic free agent signing.

Other than that Garrett has spent the last 2 seasons getting rid of dead money vet free agent holdovers from the Parcells/Phillips eras, and building the roster through the draft; do names like Dez Bryant, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Demarco Murray, Tyron Smith and Maurice Claiborne sound familiar?

Why should we expect this offseason to be different, especially when we have limited cap room?

What you're hoping will generally happen, will happen; the Cowboys will continue to build through the draft and NOT bring back "name" free agents that have worn out their welcome (I.e. Mike Jenkins, Felix Jones and Kevin Ogletree, to name a few).

But, they will bring back Spencer, as they should, because they can clear the cap space needed to keep him, and because it makes great sense in the NFL to bring back your top free agents that can still produce at a high level.

Personally, I think the fans and the Cowboys are over valuing what Spencer brings to the table much like many did with MBIII. If we can resign him for 5 million per year, I think that is the max of what his is worth and is still a little on the high side. I know he will command more than that on the open market, but teams who have historically underspent will be driving salaries up, and teams like Dallas who have historically wasted cap dollars and are on the verge of cap hell should not fall into that trap of trying to compete in the salary escalation game.

If we resign Spencer and it costs us the ability to resign someone like Tyron Smith, Dez Bryant (assuming he continues to play like the end of last year) or Shaun Lee, I don't want to hear any of you Spencer jockies complain.

This isn't about resigning someone who may be able to help you (Spencer) ... it is about the opportunity cost resigning him brings to the party.
 
xwalker;5004132 said:
Good post.

It is good to keep the comp picks in the back of your mind when considering signing top Free Agents. I wouldn't make the decision totally based on the possible comp picks, but it could sway the decision.

I'm am curious on the possibility of a Franchise-and-trade with Spencer.

I do think that they will need to sign some low and mid level Free Agents.

I think that there are many many Free Agents that can contribute while only getting 1/3 or 1/4 or less than the annual salary of Spencer or Mike Jenkins.

I think that some players must remain this year due to their base salaries being either partially or completely guaranteed.
Ratliff
Sensabaugh
Livings

Cuts: Free, Connor and Spears all need to go due to salary/performance.

I would love to see us do that. But we have to obviously free up the cap room to play that game and we have to be totally sure that Spencer won't just sign the franchise tender. Granted, you would think the risk of that is low, but if you put your neck out there on the chopping block you have be willing to risk it actually happening.

If we could get a second rounder out of a trade for Spencer I think it would be a huge coup for us, especially this year. I also think that a guy with Spencer's potential could be drafted with a second round pick.
 
I don't know the history of 3rd round comp. picks, but I highly doubt we could get one for Jones or Jenkins. Spencer, maybe.

Our two biggest weakness' on this team is OL and DL with safety not far behind. This draft is deep in those three areas. With a smart FA and draft, the Cowboys could put themselves in great position.

FA - sign Brandon Moore and maybe Ronde Barber. These could be somewhat cheap deals and allows for some flexibility in the draft.

Cuts - Free/Conner/Spears are no brainers. Too much money and not enough production.

Draft - I prefer OL with the 1st (Cooper), but if a top DL is still on the board, then you don't pass up talent for need. Draft BPA and guys that can help from day 1. Stop with the "projects" that will take 2-3 years before they "show" anything.
 
Verdict;5004146 said:
I would love to see us do that. But we have to obviously free up the cap room to play that game and we have to be totally sure that Spencer won't just sign the franchise tender. Granted, you would think the risk of that is low, but if you put your neck out there on the chopping block you have be willing to risk it actually happening.

If we could get a second rounder out of a trade for Spencer I think it would be a huge coup for us, especially this year. I also think that a guy with Spencer's potential could be drafted with a second round pick.

They can still trade him if he signs the Franchise agreement. They just can't resend it after he signs it.
 
xwalker;5004178 said:
They can still trade him if he signs the Franchise agreement. They just can't resend it after he signs it.


I was thinking that if he signs it that a new team can't renegotiate his contract, but maybe I am wrong about that. But if so, then I would think that no team is going to take him on a one year deal.
 
AMERICAS_FAN;5003956 said:
What do you mean by "for the sake of argument?" The approach you're proposing as hypothetical is what's actually been happening throughout the Jason Garrett Head Coaching era.

The only real big splash free agent pickup in the Garrett coaching era has been Carr, and that was a fantastic free agent signing.

Other than that Garrett has spent the last 2 seasons getting rid of dead money vet free agent holdovers from the Parcells/Phillips eras, and building the roster through the draft; do names like Dez Bryant, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Demarco Murray, Tyron Smith and Maurice Claiborne sound familiar?

Why should we expect this offseason to be different, especially when we have limited cap room?

What you're hoping will generally happen, will happen; the Cowboys will continue to build through the draft and NOT bring back "name" free agents that have worn out their welcome (I.e. Mike Jenkins, Felix Jones and Kevin Ogletree, to name a few).

But, they will bring back Spencer, as they should, because they can clear the cap space needed to keep him, and because it makes great sense in the NFL to bring back your top free agents that can still produce at a high level.

The Carr signing was far from fantastic. He had an average year for his 50 million contract.

Dez and Lee were pre-Garrett picks. Garrett doesn't deserve credit for that drafting them. If these players have a future in Dallas, resigning Spencer hurts their chances. Better salary cap management and smarter contracts are needed if these quality young players are staying in Dallas.
 

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