CFZ Recent QB Contracts/Extensions and warning sign results

[USArmyVet]

So many argue one way or another regarding Dak's 4-year/$160M deal as to whether he deserved it and where he ranks in terms of NFL QB's. Many also recognize that NFL QB contracts are getting out of control recently and that got me to thinking: given recent QB contracts/extensions how have those QB's performed and is it a warning sign for Owners/GM's for future deals of QB's like Burrows, Herbert, Hurts, Jackson, and Lawrence???

2022: Deshaun Watson 5-year/$230M w/CLE $230M guaranteed played in only 6 games due to suspension and had the worst season of his career and his contract pays him near $55M each of the next 4 years

2022: Russell Wilson 5-year $242M w/DEN $161M guaranteed after trading numerous draft picks and players to Seattle and giving Wilson a new deal, Wilson had the worst season of his career and led what many thought was a playoff team to a 4-11 record in his games played; his contract is untouchable for at least 3 more seasons at a significant dead money cap hit when Wilson will be 38-years old

2022: Kyler Murray 5-year $230.5M w/ARI $189.5M guaranteed played in only 11 games after tearing his ACL and led ARI to a 3-8 record in games played while amassing his worst stats year of his career and is expected to be out until after the start of the 2023 season; his contract balloons to $51M in 2024 and unless he is restructured ARI can't get out f the deal until after the 2024 season with a sizeable dead money cap hit

2022: Aaron Rodgers 3-year $150.8M w/GB $150.8M guaranteed led GB to an 8-9 season and missed the playoffs with a win and in-game vs. Detroit while putting up middle-of-the-road stats; GB rumored to have grown tired of Rodgers antics and talk of trade is throughout the league; his contract carries a $99.7M dead money hit if traded or release with the earliest out being after the 2023 season with a $24.4M dead money hit

2022: Derek Carr 3-year $121.5M w/LV $65.2M guaranteed after leading LV to a 6-9 record in games played in 2022 and having a mediocre statistical year, Carr was released by the Raiders and is now shopping for a new deal while reportedly seeking a long-term deal that averages $35M/year

2022: Matthew Stafford 4-year $160M w/LAR $130M guaranteed after leading the Rams to a Super Bowl victory in 2021 after having been traded from Detroit, Stafford led the Rams to a 3-6 record in games Played and missed 8 games due to injury in what was a terrible statistical season for Stafford; his contract is a manageable $20M in 2023 but jumps to $49.5M in 2024 with $36M in dead money remaining so the likely earliest out for a team with cap problems and no draft picks is after the 2024 season when Stafford will be 37-years old

2021: Josh Allen 6-year $258M w/BUF $150M guaranteed played at a high regular season level as the primary passing and rushing threat for the Bills but since leading the Bills to the AFC Championship game in 2020, Allen has led the Bills to a 2-2 playoff record; his contract is structured in a way where his cap hits aren't bad for 2023 and 2024 and gives Buffalo an out after the 2025 season when his cap hit jumps to $51M and a marginal dead money cap hit

2021: Dak Prescott 4-year/$160M w/DAL $126M guaranteed after missing 11 games due to injury in 2020, Dak signed a new deal and had a good 2021 statistically but missed another 5 games in 2022 and led Dallas to 2 heartbreaking playoff losses to SF in back to back years in spite of good regular season records; his contract has a 2023 cap hit of $49.1M and will force Dallas to restructure or face a $52M 2024 cap hit with $39.9M in dead money

2020: Ryan Tannehill 4-year $118M w/TENN $91M guaranteed had a good season statistically in 2020 but has an 0-2 playoff record since signing the deal and missed 5 games in 2022; Titans can save near $18M by releasing Tannehill this off-season in what is his last year of the contract with a $36.6M cap hit

2020: Patrick Mahomes 10-year $450M w/KC $141.1M guaranteed since signing the deal Mahomes has led KC to great regular season records with 3 AFC Championship appearances, 2 Super Bowl appearances, and 1 Super Bowl win while amassing great statistical seasons; his contract has a 2023 cap hit of $46.7M with $94.8M in dead money and is structured in a way where he has $0 dead money after the 2025 season when he will be 30 years old so a restructure or two is possible given his high-level of play.

I am sure I am missing a few that could be added to the above list but of the 10 recent QB contracts/extensions, you can argue that only 1 QB (Mahomes) has truly exceeded the contract, 1 QB (Allen) has played above the level of the contract, 2 QB's (Dak and Tannehill) have played barely at or below the contract, 5 QB's (Watson, Rodgers, Carr, Stafford, and Wilson) have played well below the contract, and 1 QB (Murray) suffered a major injury but was playing well below the contract prior.


What that amounts to, in my two cents opinion, is 20% of the QB's listed played above the level of the contract they were given and 60% played well below the contracts given.


While this is supposedly the "business side of the NFL and QB's" in terms of what QB's are being paid these days, with the likes of Burrows, Jackson, Hurts, Lawrence, and Herbert due up next, owners and GM's better think long and hard about devoting so much revenue and salary cap resources to existing QB's instead of looking to land a rookie QB on a rookie deal that can hopefully bring you success.

 

[doomsday9084]

Good post and research.

There are times when a free market tends to overvalue something. The price goes up for one and others follow on like lemmings driving prices higher and higher. Eventually there is a correction. I'm starting to see signs that people in and around the NFL are figuring out that these massive QB salaries are a problem.

We are still probably a few years away from a league wide adjustment as I'm sure the agents are going to keep trying to hold organizations hostage with threats of "either pay this QB 20%+ of the cap or you have no QB".

I suspect that the whole Purdy thing was eye opening. Guys like Mahomes are rare and valuable. Don't get me wrong here but just because Mahomes is valuable, it doesn't mean Deshaun Watson is worth that much. If you have a good team (coaches, defense, O line and skilled position) there are a LOT of players who you can plug in and they will look fine. Not Mahomes, but fine. IMO, teams are better off spreading the wealth unless they have a Mahomes (or maybe Burrow).

As a last point, in the NFL i think that the O line is undervalued. A good O line helps the QB, the RB's and even the defense by keeping them off the field. Beyond that, O linemen have some of the longest careers at a high level. If you are going to pick which guys to keep around on second contracts, I would argue that O line is the place to go.

 

[USArmyVet]

Good post and research.

There are times when a free market tends to overvalue something. The price goes up for one and others follow on like lemmings driving prices higher and higher. Eventually there is a correction. I'm starting to see signs that people in and around the NFL are figuring out that these massive QB salaries are a problem.

We are still probably a few years away from a league wide adjustment as I'm sure the agents are going to keep trying to hold organizations hostage with threats of "either pay this QB 20%+ of the cap or you have no QB".

I suspect that the whole Purdy thing was eye opening. Guys like Mahomes are rare and valuable. Don't get me wrong here but just because Mahomes is valuable, it doesn't mean Deshaun Watson is worth that much. If you have a good team (coaches, defense, O line and skilled position) there are a LOT of players who you can plug in and they will look fine. Not Mahomes, but fine. IMO, teams are better off spreading the wealth unless they have a Mahomes (or maybe Burrow).

As a last point, in the NFL i think that the O line is undervalued. A good O line helps the QB, the RB's and even the defense by keeping them off the field. Beyond that, O linemen have some of the longest careers at a high level. If you are going to pick which guys to keep around on second contracts, I would argue that O line is the place to go.

Agreed regarding the QB market as well as the OL pay but I suppose just like QB's you can hit or miss in terms of player longevity versus new contract (Dallas' Tyron Smith vs. Zack Martin is a great example).
Things are crazy though when QB's are nearing $50M/AAV, WR's are nearing $25M/AAV, and other positions are approaching the $20M/AAV.....while the salary cap is going up, smart business is to foresee adjustments and apply the money where and when smart (KC is the great example given Mahomes contract structure and the way they traded Tyreek Hill and replaced him with lower cost guys that cumulatively achieved what Hill was doing).

 

[Flamma]

While this is supposedly the "business side of the NFL and QB's" in terms of what QB's are being paid these days, with the likes of Burrows, Jackson, Hurts, Lawrence, and Herbert due up next, owners and GM's better think long and hard about devoting so much revenue and salary cap resources to existing QB's instead of looking to land a rookie QB on a rookie deal that can hopefully bring you success.

Out of those guys, I'd pay Herbert and Burrow. Lawrence is next year. Your team has to be good enough to win despite your QBs cap hit. But I'm just using the mindset of winning. It's a business to owners. Staying popular, and having a winning record is better for business than winning 5 or 6 games a year looking for a quarterback.

Remember when the Bills GM talked about cap issues between them and the Bengals? Actually, Burrow and Chase weren't being paid much less than Allen and Diggs. Cap hit wise they were only about 6-7M different. This upcoming season it spikes. Allen's cap hit skyrockets, and Diggs doubles. That's going to give the Bengals a big advantage for about 2 years. After that, they're in the same boat. But some of these other QBs, the Ravens aren't winning anything with Jackson at a 40M cap hit. Or Hurts. Hell, I'm not sold on Lawrence. Signing them is to keep making money.

 

[baltcowboy]

The contract are going to get bigger with all the television money coming in. Herbert, Lawrence. Mahomes, and Burrow will ask for 60 million a season. Imagine if Dak breaks through next season (possible) and the Cowboys don’t restructure this season. You know some mediocre quarterback like Fields, Jones, or Goff will play like an All-Pro next season. It is the NFL and with the salary cap the owners are protected. I get the impression lots of fans are on the owners side when it come to money.

 

[USArmyVet]

The contract are going to get bigger with all the television money coming in. Herbert, Lawrence. Mahomes, and Burrow will ask for 60 million a season. Imagine if Dak breaks through next season (possible) and the Cowboys don’t restructure this season. You know some mediocre quarterback like Fields, Jones, or Goff will play like an All-Pro next season. It is the NFL and with the salary cap the owners are protected. I get the impression lots of fans are on the owners side when it come to money.

While I understand your point at the end I am not on the owners side but rather on the fans side, especially those of us that have waited nearly 30 years to see Dallas in the Super Bowl again.

 

[cnuball21]

FA signings / extensions hardly ever live up to the contract. It’s the nature of FA especially for QBs.

For our team, I’m more concerned with how inept our GM is at actually building a championship caliber roster.

 

[baltcowboy]

While I understand your point at the end I am not on the owners side but rather on the fans side, especially those of us that have waited nearly 30 years to see Dallas in the Super Bowl again.

If Jerry didn’t help create the salary cap from the start the Cowboys would not be in the position they are currently in. Jerry chose money over championships. Let’s not blame quarterbacks or any other player’s salary it’s the owner’s fault.

 

[Montanalo]

As long as the cap continues to increase year-on-year, we'll continue to see out-of-proportion contracts for QBs (and, OT, DE, WR).

I suspect most believe this is unsustainable long-term. I also suspect many more teams will adopt a "bus-driver" QB approach and invest funds in the OL and defense. May not be popular with fans, but it seems inevitable.

 

[Ken]

So many argue one way or another regarding Dak's 4-year/$160M deal as to whether he deserved it and where he ranks in terms of NFL QB's. Many also recognize that NFL QB contracts are getting out of control recently and that got me to thinking: given recent QB contracts/extensions how have those QB's performed and is it a warning sign for Owners/GM's for future deals of QB's like Burrows, Herbert, Hurts, Jackson, and Lawrence???

2022: Deshaun Watson 5-year/$230M w/CLE $230M guaranteed played in only 6 games due to suspension and had the worst season of his career and his contract pays him near $55M each of the next 4 years

2022: Russell Wilson 5-year $242M w/DEN $161M guaranteed after trading numerous draft picks and players to Seattle and giving Wilson a new deal, Wilson had the worst season of his career and led what many thought was a playoff team to a 4-11 record in his games played; his contract is untouchable for at least 3 more seasons at a significant dead money cap hit when Wilson will be 38-years old

2022: Kyler Murray 5-year $230.5M w/ARI $189.5M guaranteed played in only 11 games after tearing his ACL and led ARI to a 3-8 record in games played while amassing his worst stats year of his career and is expected to be out until after the start of the 2023 season; his contract balloons to $51M in 2024 and unless he is restructured ARI can't get out f the deal until after the 2024 season with a sizeable dead money cap hit

2022: Aaron Rodgers 3-year $150.8M w/GB $150.8M guaranteed led GB to an 8-9 season and missed the playoffs with a win and in-game vs. Detroit while putting up middle-of-the-road stats; GB rumored to have grown tired of Rodgers antics and talk of trade is throughout the league; his contract carries a $99.7M dead money hit if traded or release with the earliest out being after the 2023 season with a $24.4M dead money hit

2022: Derek Carr 3-year $121.5M w/LV $65.2M guaranteed after leading LV to a 6-9 record in games played in 2022 and having a mediocre statistical year, Carr was released by the Raiders and is now shopping for a new deal while reportedly seeking a long-term deal that averages $35M/year

2022: Matthew Stafford 4-year $160M w/LAR $130M guaranteed after leading the Rams to a Super Bowl victory in 2021 after having been traded from Detroit, Stafford led the Rams to a 3-6 record in games Played and missed 8 games due to injury in what was a terrible statistical season for Stafford; his contract is a manageable $20M in 2023 but jumps to $49.5M in 2024 with $36M in dead money remaining so the likely earliest out for a team with cap problems and no draft picks is after the 2024 season when Stafford will be 37-years old

2021: Josh Allen 6-year $258M w/BUF $150M guaranteed played at a high regular season level as the primary passing and rushing threat for the Bills but since leading the Bills to the AFC Championship game in 2020, Allen has led the Bills to a 2-2 playoff record; his contract is structured in a way where his cap hits aren't bad for 2023 and 2024 and gives Buffalo an out after the 2025 season when his cap hit jumps to $51M and a marginal dead money cap hit

2021: Dak Prescott 4-year/$160M w/DAL $126M guaranteed after missing 11 games due to injury in 2020, Dak signed a new deal and had a good 2021 statistically but missed another 5 games in 2022 and led Dallas to 2 heartbreaking playoff losses to SF in back to back years in spite of good regular season records; his contract has a 2023 cap hit of $49.1M and will force Dallas to restructure or face a $52M 2024 cap hit with $39.9M in dead money

2020: Ryan Tannehill 4-year $118M w/TENN $91M guaranteed had a good season statistically in 2020 but has an 0-2 playoff record since signing the deal and missed 5 games in 2022; Titans can save near $18M by releasing Tannehill this off-season in what is his last year of the contract with a $36.6M cap hit

2020: Patrick Mahomes 10-year $450M w/KC $141.1M guaranteed since signing the deal Mahomes has led KC to great regular season records with 3 AFC Championship appearances, 2 Super Bowl appearances, and 1 Super Bowl win while amassing great statistical seasons; his contract has a 2023 cap hit of $46.7M with $94.8M in dead money and is structured in a way where he has $0 dead money after the 2025 season when he will be 30 years old so a restructure or two is possible given his high-level of play.

I am sure I am missing a few that could be added to the above list but of the 10 recent QB contracts/extensions, you can argue that only 1 QB (Mahomes) has truly exceeded the contract, 1 QB (Allen) has played above the level of the contract, 2 QB's (Dak and Tannehill) have played barely at or below the contract, 5 QB's (Watson, Rodgers, Carr, Stafford, and Wilson) have played well below the contract, and 1 QB (Murray) suffered a major injury but was playing well below the contract prior.


What that amounts to, in my two cents opinion, is 20% of the QB's listed played above the level of the contract they were given and 60% played well below the contracts given.


While this is supposedly the "business side of the NFL and QB's" in terms of what QB's are being paid these days, with the likes of Burrows, Jackson, Hurts, Lawrence, and Herbert due up next, owners and GM's better think long and hard about devoting so much revenue and salary cap resources to existing QB's instead of looking to land a rookie QB on a rookie deal that can hopefully bring you success.

The qb contracts have been out of control and NONE of them are worth what they are paid.

They have opened pandora's box and it isn't going away anytime soon.

 

[shabazz]

Any team that pays Lamar Jackson 230 million in guaranteed money is crazy

is he phenomenal? Yes….and he’s a winner BUT the style of Qb he plays invites injuries. It’s has happened the last 2 years and WILL happen again

its funny how every ex athlete on all sports shows want to see him get that guaranteed money but don’t consider the adverse risk the team would be taking that signs a running quarterback

 

[jazzcat22]

So many argue one way or another regarding Dak's 4-year/$160M deal as to whether he deserved it and where he ranks in terms of NFL QB's. Many also recognize that NFL QB contracts are getting out of control recently and that got me to thinking: given recent QB contracts/extensions how have those QB's performed and is it a warning sign for Owners/GM's for future deals of QB's like Burrows, Herbert, Hurts, Jackson, and Lawrence???

2022: Deshaun Watson 5-year/$230M w/CLE $230M guaranteed played in only 6 games due to suspension and had the worst season of his career and his contract pays him near $55M each of the next 4 years

2022: Russell Wilson 5-year $242M w/DEN $161M guaranteed after trading numerous draft picks and players to Seattle and giving Wilson a new deal, Wilson had the worst season of his career and led what many thought was a playoff team to a 4-11 record in his games played; his contract is untouchable for at least 3 more seasons at a significant dead money cap hit when Wilson will be 38-years old

2022: Kyler Murray 5-year $230.5M w/ARI $189.5M guaranteed played in only 11 games after tearing his ACL and led ARI to a 3-8 record in games played while amassing his worst stats year of his career and is expected to be out until after the start of the 2023 season; his contract balloons to $51M in 2024 and unless he is restructured ARI can't get out f the deal until after the 2024 season with a sizeable dead money cap hit

2022: Aaron Rodgers 3-year $150.8M w/GB $150.8M guaranteed led GB to an 8-9 season and missed the playoffs with a win and in-game vs. Detroit while putting up middle-of-the-road stats; GB rumored to have grown tired of Rodgers antics and talk of trade is throughout the league; his contract carries a $99.7M dead money hit if traded or release with the earliest out being after the 2023 season with a $24.4M dead money hit

2022: Derek Carr 3-year $121.5M w/LV $65.2M guaranteed after leading LV to a 6-9 record in games played in 2022 and having a mediocre statistical year, Carr was released by the Raiders and is now shopping for a new deal while reportedly seeking a long-term deal that averages $35M/year

2022: Matthew Stafford 4-year $160M w/LAR $130M guaranteed after leading the Rams to a Super Bowl victory in 2021 after having been traded from Detroit, Stafford led the Rams to a 3-6 record in games Played and missed 8 games due to injury in what was a terrible statistical season for Stafford; his contract is a manageable $20M in 2023 but jumps to $49.5M in 2024 with $36M in dead money remaining so the likely earliest out for a team with cap problems and no draft picks is after the 2024 season when Stafford will be 37-years old

2021: Josh Allen 6-year $258M w/BUF $150M guaranteed played at a high regular season level as the primary passing and rushing threat for the Bills but since leading the Bills to the AFC Championship game in 2020, Allen has led the Bills to a 2-2 playoff record; his contract is structured in a way where his cap hits aren't bad for 2023 and 2024 and gives Buffalo an out after the 2025 season when his cap hit jumps to $51M and a marginal dead money cap hit

2021: Dak Prescott 4-year/$160M w/DAL $126M guaranteed after missing 11 games due to injury in 2020, Dak signed a new deal and had a good 2021 statistically but missed another 5 games in 2022 and led Dallas to 2 heartbreaking playoff losses to SF in back to back years in spite of good regular season records; his contract has a 2023 cap hit of $49.1M and will force Dallas to restructure or face a $52M 2024 cap hit with $39.9M in dead money

2020: Ryan Tannehill 4-year $118M w/TENN $91M guaranteed had a good season statistically in 2020 but has an 0-2 playoff record since signing the deal and missed 5 games in 2022; Titans can save near $18M by releasing Tannehill this off-season in what is his last year of the contract with a $36.6M cap hit

2020: Patrick Mahomes 10-year $450M w/KC $141.1M guaranteed since signing the deal Mahomes has led KC to great regular season records with 3 AFC Championship appearances, 2 Super Bowl appearances, and 1 Super Bowl win while amassing great statistical seasons; his contract has a 2023 cap hit of $46.7M with $94.8M in dead money and is structured in a way where he has $0 dead money after the 2025 season when he will be 30 years old so a restructure or two is possible given his high-level of play.

I am sure I am missing a few that could be added to the above list but of the 10 recent QB contracts/extensions, you can argue that only 1 QB (Mahomes) has truly exceeded the contract, 1 QB (Allen) has played above the level of the contract, 2 QB's (Dak and Tannehill) have played barely at or below the contract, 5 QB's (Watson, Rodgers, Carr, Stafford, and Wilson) have played well below the contract, and 1 QB (Murray) suffered a major injury but was playing well below the contract prior.


What that amounts to, in my two cents opinion, is 20% of the QB's listed played above the level of the contract they were given and 60% played well below the contracts given.


While this is supposedly the "business side of the NFL and QB's" in terms of what QB's are being paid these days, with the likes of Burrows, Jackson, Hurts, Lawrence, and Herbert due up next, owners and GM's better think long and hard about devoting so much revenue and salary cap resources to existing QB's instead of looking to land a rookie QB on a rookie deal that can hopefully bring you success.

Good write up. Not only the NFL but all sports are crazy with all these huge contracts.
I think the Texas Rangers are still paying off A-Rod.

 

[Ken]

Any team that pays Lamar Jackson 230 million in guaranteed money is crazy

is he phenomenal? Yes….and he’s a winner BUT the style of Qb he plays invites injuries. It’s has happened the last 2 years and WILL happen again

its funny how every ex athlete on all sports shows want to see him get that guaranteed money but don’t consider the adverse risk the team would be taking that signs a running quarterback

I would rather give Jackson 230 mill guaranteed than Watson. Talk about the dumbest trade/contract combo in history of the league...

 

[DallasEast]

If Jerry didn’t help create the salary cap from the start the Cowboys would not be in the position they are currently in. Jerry chose money over championships. Let’s not blame quarterbacks or any other player’s salary it’s the owner’s fault.

Jerry Jones did not create the current free agency/salary cap structure that began in the early 1990’s. It was a accumulated result of decades of labor strife between the owners and players’ union.

I have loathe the agreement since day one and have commented about it every year from its inception. The structure artificially enforces parity across the board. Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft masterfully capitalized on the setup afterwards, although having Tom Brady was certainly a bonus lol.

Of course, Jones did play a role though. He and other owners and team executives mandated that the agreement included a hard cap. Gene Upshaw and the NFLPA conceded that particular stipulation.

Both parties got basically what each wanted. Owners have seen labor conflicts in post-1994 lessen and become not as disruptive as pre-1993. Middle-to-top their players expanded their bidder base far wider across the league, along with their talent. The latter consequence has been the most difficult for Jerry Jones to successfully navigate for over a quarter century.

 

[kskboys]

I would rather give Jackson 230 mill guaranteed than Watson. Talk about the dumbest trade/contract combo in history of the league...

Gads no. Jackson will never take you there. Watson might.

 

[kskboys]

Basically, Mahomes has been the only one really worth the money. Maybe Allen.

 

[noshame]

That's why you draft a accurate QB every couple years . Just a average arm, strength wise is fine as long as he's accurate 2-4th round.
They are available.
If you want a stud fine you just need to allot funds and make sacrifices elsewhere

 

[fivetwos]

That's why you draft a accurate QB every couple years . Just a average arm, strength wise is fine as long as he's accurate 2-4th round.
They are available.
If you want a stud fine you just need to allot funds and make sacrifices elsewhere

Agreed.

Problem is it’s tough to commit a pick in those rounds to a developmental QB when you are using the draft to fill gaping holes in the starting lineup.

That’s what free agency is for, and our FO philosophy is why we are always going to be a step behind at our best.

They would have to be one of the best drafting teams in league history, consistently, in order for this “secret sauce” strategy to work.

McClay is probably the highest paid personnel guy in the league, so Jerry figures that’s what he ought to get in return. Not mention how highly they think of themselves.

 

[rambo2]

So many argue one way or another regarding Dak's 4-year/$160M deal as to whether he deserved it and where he ranks in terms of NFL QB's. Many also recognize that NFL QB contracts are getting out of control recently and that got me to thinking: given recent QB contracts/extensions how have those QB's performed and is it a warning sign for Owners/GM's for future deals of QB's like Burrows, Herbert, Hurts, Jackson, and Lawrence???

2022: Deshaun Watson 5-year/$230M w/CLE $230M guaranteed played in only 6 games due to suspension and had the worst season of his career and his contract pays him near $55M each of the next 4 years

2022: Russell Wilson 5-year $242M w/DEN $161M guaranteed after trading numerous draft picks and players to Seattle and giving Wilson a new deal, Wilson had the worst season of his career and led what many thought was a playoff team to a 4-11 record in his games played; his contract is untouchable for at least 3 more seasons at a significant dead money cap hit when Wilson will be 38-years old

2022: Kyler Murray 5-year $230.5M w/ARI $189.5M guaranteed played in only 11 games after tearing his ACL and led ARI to a 3-8 record in games played while amassing his worst stats year of his career and is expected to be out until after the start of the 2023 season; his contract balloons to $51M in 2024 and unless he is restructured ARI can't get out f the deal until after the 2024 season with a sizeable dead money cap hit

2022: Aaron Rodgers 3-year $150.8M w/GB $150.8M guaranteed led GB to an 8-9 season and missed the playoffs with a win and in-game vs. Detroit while putting up middle-of-the-road stats; GB rumored to have grown tired of Rodgers antics and talk of trade is throughout the league; his contract carries a $99.7M dead money hit if traded or release with the earliest out being after the 2023 season with a $24.4M dead money hit

2022: Derek Carr 3-year $121.5M w/LV $65.2M guaranteed after leading LV to a 6-9 record in games played in 2022 and having a mediocre statistical year, Carr was released by the Raiders and is now shopping for a new deal while reportedly seeking a long-term deal that averages $35M/year

2022: Matthew Stafford 4-year $160M w/LAR $130M guaranteed after leading the Rams to a Super Bowl victory in 2021 after having been traded from Detroit, Stafford led the Rams to a 3-6 record in games Played and missed 8 games due to injury in what was a terrible statistical season for Stafford; his contract is a manageable $20M in 2023 but jumps to $49.5M in 2024 with $36M in dead money remaining so the likely earliest out for a team with cap problems and no draft picks is after the 2024 season when Stafford will be 37-years old

2021: Josh Allen 6-year $258M w/BUF $150M guaranteed played at a high regular season level as the primary passing and rushing threat for the Bills but since leading the Bills to the AFC Championship game in 2020, Allen has led the Bills to a 2-2 playoff record; his contract is structured in a way where his cap hits aren't bad for 2023 and 2024 and gives Buffalo an out after the 2025 season when his cap hit jumps to $51M and a marginal dead money cap hit

2021: Dak Prescott 4-year/$160M w/DAL $126M guaranteed after missing 11 games due to injury in 2020, Dak signed a new deal and had a good 2021 statistically but missed another 5 games in 2022 and led Dallas to 2 heartbreaking playoff losses to SF in back to back years in spite of good regular season records; his contract has a 2023 cap hit of $49.1M and will force Dallas to restructure or face a $52M 2024 cap hit with $39.9M in dead money

2020: Ryan Tannehill 4-year $118M w/TENN $91M guaranteed had a good season statistically in 2020 but has an 0-2 playoff record since signing the deal and missed 5 games in 2022; Titans can save near $18M by releasing Tannehill this off-season in what is his last year of the contract with a $36.6M cap hit

2020: Patrick Mahomes 10-year $450M w/KC $141.1M guaranteed since signing the deal Mahomes has led KC to great regular season records with 3 AFC Championship appearances, 2 Super Bowl appearances, and 1 Super Bowl win while amassing great statistical seasons; his contract has a 2023 cap hit of $46.7M with $94.8M in dead money and is structured in a way where he has $0 dead money after the 2025 season when he will be 30 years old so a restructure or two is possible given his high-level of play.

I am sure I am missing a few that could be added to the above list but of the 10 recent QB contracts/extensions, you can argue that only 1 QB (Mahomes) has truly exceeded the contract, 1 QB (Allen) has played above the level of the contract, 2 QB's (Dak and Tannehill) have played barely at or below the contract, 5 QB's (Watson, Rodgers, Carr, Stafford, and Wilson) have played well below the contract, and 1 QB (Murray) suffered a major injury but was playing well below the contract prior.


What that amounts to, in my two cents opinion, is 20% of the QB's listed played above the level of the contract they were given and 60% played well below the contracts given.


While this is supposedly the "business side of the NFL and QB's" in terms of what QB's are being paid these days, with the likes of Burrows, Jackson, Hurts, Lawrence, and Herbert due up next, owners and GM's better think long and hard about devoting so much revenue and salary cap resources to existing QB's instead of looking to land a rookie QB on a rookie deal that can hopefully bring you success.

I'd argue that the Cowboys are in better position that nearly every team that you mentioned. Thanks for taking the time to point that out.

 

[Diehardblues]

I think what many don’t recognize with these huge QB contracts that no doubt place a burden in attempting to surround them with enough talent is that these QB’s bring stability to the franchise .

Stability is a known quantity in order to build around . Basically there are two types of teams in the NFL. One who has a franchise QB to build around and the other looking for one .

Of course the level of talent one of these Franchise QB presents is paramount. Not all Franchise QB’s are Elite which presents more of a challenge to build around within the Cap.

But even if you have a Qb who’s paid Market Price which means basically over paid it’s still a better position to be in than still looking for a QB.

We must remember as fans that the NFL is a business first and while winning championships is the ultimate goal , the immediate priority is putting together a playoff contender while keeping the interest of your fanbase.