CFZ Recent QB Contracts/Extensions and warning sign results

[gtb1943]

And yet the Cowboys are on the verge of winning 12 games for the third year in a row. That puts them up there with KC, especially if they get over the hump this year.

You sure swill the Jerry Jones kool aid

 

[gtb1943]

You can make the argument that Dak is right there with Allen except the Buffalo quarterback has a team. The big argument for Allen was that game against Kansas City that he lost last playoffs but nobody seems to remember what Dak did against Tampa that actually might be more impressive because Tampa had a bettter defense. Dak wet the bed twice against the best defense in football but Allen stinks it up against the Bengals at home. Let’s blame receivers I guess.

anytime someone is hanging their hat on a performance against a 8-9 team they have already lost the argument

 

[john van brocklin]

So many argue one way or another regarding Dak's 4-year/$160M deal as to whether he deserved it and where he ranks in terms of NFL QB's. Many also recognize that NFL QB contracts are getting out of control recently and that got me to thinking: given recent QB contracts/extensions how have those QB's performed and is it a warning sign for Owners/GM's for future deals of QB's like Burrows, Herbert, Hurts, Jackson, and Lawrence???

2022: Deshaun Watson 5-year/$230M w/CLE $230M guaranteed played in only 6 games due to suspension and had the worst season of his career and his contract pays him near $55M each of the next 4 years

2022: Russell Wilson 5-year $242M w/DEN $161M guaranteed after trading numerous draft picks and players to Seattle and giving Wilson a new deal, Wilson had the worst season of his career and led what many thought was a playoff team to a 4-11 record in his games played; his contract is untouchable for at least 3 more seasons at a significant dead money cap hit when Wilson will be 38-years old

2022: Kyler Murray 5-year $230.5M w/ARI $189.5M guaranteed played in only 11 games after tearing his ACL and led ARI to a 3-8 record in games played while amassing his worst stats year of his career and is expected to be out until after the start of the 2023 season; his contract balloons to $51M in 2024 and unless he is restructured ARI can't get out f the deal until after the 2024 season with a sizeable dead money cap hit

2022: Aaron Rodgers 3-year $150.8M w/GB $150.8M guaranteed led GB to an 8-9 season and missed the playoffs with a win and in-game vs. Detroit while putting up middle-of-the-road stats; GB rumored to have grown tired of Rodgers antics and talk of trade is throughout the league; his contract carries a $99.7M dead money hit if traded or release with the earliest out being after the 2023 season with a $24.4M dead money hit

2022: Derek Carr 3-year $121.5M w/LV $65.2M guaranteed after leading LV to a 6-9 record in games played in 2022 and having a mediocre statistical year, Carr was released by the Raiders and is now shopping for a new deal while reportedly seeking a long-term deal that averages $35M/year

2022: Matthew Stafford 4-year $160M w/LAR $130M guaranteed after leading the Rams to a Super Bowl victory in 2021 after having been traded from Detroit, Stafford led the Rams to a 3-6 record in games Played and missed 8 games due to injury in what was a terrible statistical season for Stafford; his contract is a manageable $20M in 2023 but jumps to $49.5M in 2024 with $36M in dead money remaining so the likely earliest out for a team with cap problems and no draft picks is after the 2024 season when Stafford will be 37-years old

2021: Josh Allen 6-year $258M w/BUF $150M guaranteed played at a high regular season level as the primary passing and rushing threat for the Bills but since leading the Bills to the AFC Championship game in 2020, Allen has led the Bills to a 2-2 playoff record; his contract is structured in a way where his cap hits aren't bad for 2023 and 2024 and gives Buffalo an out after the 2025 season when his cap hit jumps to $51M and a marginal dead money cap hit

2021: Dak Prescott 4-year/$160M w/DAL $126M guaranteed after missing 11 games due to injury in 2020, Dak signed a new deal and had a good 2021 statistically but missed another 5 games in 2022 and led Dallas to 2 heartbreaking playoff losses to SF in back to back years in spite of good regular season records; his contract has a 2023 cap hit of $49.1M and will force Dallas to restructure or face a $52M 2024 cap hit with $39.9M in dead money

2020: Ryan Tannehill 4-year $118M w/TENN $91M guaranteed had a good season statistically in 2020 but has an 0-2 playoff record since signing the deal and missed 5 games in 2022; Titans can save near $18M by releasing Tannehill this off-season in what is his last year of the contract with a $36.6M cap hit

2020: Patrick Mahomes 10-year $450M w/KC $141.1M guaranteed since signing the deal Mahomes has led KC to great regular season records with 3 AFC Championship appearances, 2 Super Bowl appearances, and 1 Super Bowl win while amassing great statistical seasons; his contract has a 2023 cap hit of $46.7M with $94.8M in dead money and is structured in a way where he has $0 dead money after the 2025 season when he will be 30 years old so a restructure or two is possible given his high-level of play.

I am sure I am missing a few that could be added to the above list but of the 10 recent QB contracts/extensions, you can argue that only 1 QB (Mahomes) has truly exceeded the contract, 1 QB (Allen) has played above the level of the contract, 2 QB's (Dak and Tannehill) have played barely at or below the contract, 5 QB's (Watson, Rodgers, Carr, Stafford, and Wilson) have played well below the contract, and 1 QB (Murray) suffered a major injury but was playing well below the contract prior.


What that amounts to, in my two cents opinion, is 20% of the QB's listed played above the level of the contract they were given and 60% played well below the contracts given.


While this is supposedly the "business side of the NFL and QB's" in terms of what QB's are being paid these days, with the likes of Burrows, Jackson, Hurts, Lawrence, and Herbert due up next, owners and GM's better think long and hard about devoting so much revenue and salary cap resources to existing QB's instead of looking to land a rookie QB on a rookie deal that can hopefully bring you success.

Very nice work!
I think they should limit the % of the total cap paid to a QB.
I think the Non-QBs would go for it as it would mean more money for them.

 

[kskboys]

Very nice work!
I think they should limit the % of the total cap paid to a QB.
I think the Non-QBs would go for it as it would mean more money for them.

They're going to be forced to do something, of that I'm sure.

 

[rambo2]

You sure swill the Jerry Jones kool aid

I just like having a good team and winning.

 

[john van brocklin]

They're going to be forced to do something, of that I'm sure.

Yep, QB'S making 50m
While half the team makes under 2m each,
Is just ridiculous.

 

[DandyDon52]

So many argue one way or another regarding Dak's 4-year/$160M deal as to whether he deserved it and where he ranks in terms of NFL QB's. Many also recognize that NFL QB contracts are getting out of control recently and that got me to thinking: given recent QB contracts/extensions how have those QB's performed and is it a warning sign for Owners/GM's for future deals of QB's like Burrows, Herbert, Hurts, Jackson, and Lawrence???

2022: Deshaun Watson 5-year/$230M w/CLE $230M guaranteed played in only 6 games due to suspension and had the worst season of his career and his contract pays him near $55M each of the next 4 years

2022: Russell Wilson 5-year $242M w/DEN $161M guaranteed after trading numerous draft picks and players to Seattle and giving Wilson a new deal, Wilson had the worst season of his career and led what many thought was a playoff team to a 4-11 record in his games played; his contract is untouchable for at least 3 more seasons at a significant dead money cap hit when Wilson will be 38-years old

2022: Kyler Murray 5-year $230.5M w/ARI $189.5M guaranteed played in only 11 games after tearing his ACL and led ARI to a 3-8 record in games played while amassing his worst stats year of his career and is expected to be out until after the start of the 2023 season; his contract balloons to $51M in 2024 and unless he is restructured ARI can't get out f the deal until after the 2024 season with a sizeable dead money cap hit

2022: Aaron Rodgers 3-year $150.8M w/GB $150.8M guaranteed led GB to an 8-9 season and missed the playoffs with a win and in-game vs. Detroit while putting up middle-of-the-road stats; GB rumored to have grown tired of Rodgers antics and talk of trade is throughout the league; his contract carries a $99.7M dead money hit if traded or release with the earliest out being after the 2023 season with a $24.4M dead money hit

2022: Derek Carr 3-year $121.5M w/LV $65.2M guaranteed after leading LV to a 6-9 record in games played in 2022 and having a mediocre statistical year, Carr was released by the Raiders and is now shopping for a new deal while reportedly seeking a long-term deal that averages $35M/year

2022: Matthew Stafford 4-year $160M w/LAR $130M guaranteed after leading the Rams to a Super Bowl victory in 2021 after having been traded from Detroit, Stafford led the Rams to a 3-6 record in games Played and missed 8 games due to injury in what was a terrible statistical season for Stafford; his contract is a manageable $20M in 2023 but jumps to $49.5M in 2024 with $36M in dead money remaining so the likely earliest out for a team with cap problems and no draft picks is after the 2024 season when Stafford will be 37-years old

2021: Josh Allen 6-year $258M w/BUF $150M guaranteed played at a high regular season level as the primary passing and rushing threat for the Bills but since leading the Bills to the AFC Championship game in 2020, Allen has led the Bills to a 2-2 playoff record; his contract is structured in a way where his cap hits aren't bad for 2023 and 2024 and gives Buffalo an out after the 2025 season when his cap hit jumps to $51M and a marginal dead money cap hit

2021: Dak Prescott 4-year/$160M w/DAL $126M guaranteed after missing 11 games due to injury in 2020, Dak signed a new deal and had a good 2021 statistically but missed another 5 games in 2022 and led Dallas to 2 heartbreaking playoff losses to SF in back to back years in spite of good regular season records; his contract has a 2023 cap hit of $49.1M and will force Dallas to restructure or face a $52M 2024 cap hit with $39.9M in dead money

2020: Ryan Tannehill 4-year $118M w/TENN $91M guaranteed had a good season statistically in 2020 but has an 0-2 playoff record since signing the deal and missed 5 games in 2022; Titans can save near $18M by releasing Tannehill this off-season in what is his last year of the contract with a $36.6M cap hit

2020: Patrick Mahomes 10-year $450M w/KC $141.1M guaranteed since signing the deal Mahomes has led KC to great regular season records with 3 AFC Championship appearances, 2 Super Bowl appearances, and 1 Super Bowl win while amassing great statistical seasons; his contract has a 2023 cap hit of $46.7M with $94.8M in dead money and is structured in a way where he has $0 dead money after the 2025 season when he will be 30 years old so a restructure or two is possible given his high-level of play.

I am sure I am missing a few that could be added to the above list but of the 10 recent QB contracts/extensions, you can argue that only 1 QB (Mahomes) has truly exceeded the contract, 1 QB (Allen) has played above the level of the contract, 2 QB's (Dak and Tannehill) have played barely at or below the contract, 5 QB's (Watson, Rodgers, Carr, Stafford, and Wilson) have played well below the contract, and 1 QB (Murray) suffered a major injury but was playing well below the contract prior.


What that amounts to, in my two cents opinion, is 20% of the QB's listed played above the level of the contract they were given and 60% played well below the contracts given.


While this is supposedly the "business side of the NFL and QB's" in terms of what QB's are being paid these days, with the likes of Burrows, Jackson, Hurts, Lawrence, and Herbert due up next, owners and GM's better think long and hard about devoting so much revenue and salary cap resources to existing QB's instead of looking to land a rookie QB on a rookie deal that can hopefully bring you success.

many of those u listed were just bad deals.
Arizona was stupid to draft murray, then made it worse by giving him the big contract.
Tannehill deal wasnt that big , and looking at their team , might as well let that play out.
Dak was a mistake, and jones like ariz will extend him and extend the problem
Watson was a huge mistake,and too much money.
Wilson looks bad, but I want to see what he looks like with peyton.
Allen deal not bad, and his coaching is suspect,and maybe needs some more talent to get to a SB.

Stafford was worth his contract because he did help get them the SB win they wanted badly.
you cant fault qb's for getting hurt and missing games.
It also takes more than a good qb to have success in playoffs and SB's
It takes a decent to good FO, and above avg HC and staff. Coaching is very important.

KC and Phil, last season, had the best coaching, and vg FO that got players they needed,. both wound up in SB.
They could both be back next season, or will surely be in the mix or Champ games.

 

[MistyAnn]

The bus driver offence with ball and clock control O-line would fall behind too quick nowadays with high scoring pass 1st offences.
The penalties for offensive and defensive holding , not to mention QB roughing penalties keep the glory in the hands of the QB.
Owners have no choice but to overpay the QB.
I sure prefer the old style game where the personality of a team was based and built on the meanness of the Defence.

 

[cnuball21]

Is the cap taken up by Prescott really keeping this team from putting better talent around him?

Good GM's that are good talent evaluators and cap managers will do well paying their QB's 40-50M.

It is not the QB's job to manage the cap and even help them do it. He is out to get as much as he can, just like every other player in the game. Rodgers close bud is Adams and he knew he was risking losing him if he went for the gold but he did and Adams was probably fine with that.

We could create 50 million in cap space just by doing restructures.

It’s not a hurdle bc of Daks contract, it’s a hurdle bc of our GM doesn’t want to.

 

[doomsday9084]

Is the cap taken up by Prescott really keeping this team from putting better talent around him?

Good GM's that are good talent evaluators and cap managers will do well paying their QB's 40-50M.

It is not the QB's job to manage the cap and even help them do it. He is out to get as much as he can, just like every other player in the game. Rodgers close bud is Adams and he knew he was risking losing him if he went for the gold but he did and Adams was probably fine with that.

If you look, there really isn't a long history of teams doing well paying their QB 40-50m. A disproportionate number of players who go deep in the playoffs are on their rookie deals. The list of successful QB's is basically:
1. Patrick Mahomes
. . . . and he did it once.

https://www.spotrac.com/spots/super-bowl-qb-cap-percentages-1397/

Almost all of those QB's were making 5 to 10% of the cap.

 

[JBond]

All this money to play a game is insane in my mind. There are very few posters here that have a net worth of 10 million on this forum. That isn't a shot at anyone, but the freaking money has become ridiculous.

These young kids should be doing more for the retired players that set this table up for them.

 

[Flamma]

The contract are going to get bigger with all the television money coming in. Herbert, Lawrence. Mahomes, and Burrow will ask for 60 million a season. Imagine if Dak breaks through next season (possible) and the Cowboys don’t restructure this season. You know some mediocre quarterback like Fields, Jones, or Goff will play like an All-Pro next season. It is the NFL and with the salary cap the owners are protected. I get the impression lots of fans are on the owners side when it come to money.

Being on the owners side is an unintended consequence of being a fan.

If I climb a tree to save my neighbor's cat, am I on my neighbor's side, or do I just love cats? I'm not going to cheer a record breaking contract if it hurts the rest of the team. I want the team to win. It would be just the opposite if there was no cap. I'd want ownership to pay the good players whatever it took to keep them on the team.

 

[USArmyVet]

And yet the Cowboys are on the verge of winning 12 games for the third year in a row. That puts them up there with KC, especially if they get over the hump this year.

First off how are they on the verge of a third 12-win season when no off-season moves have taken place nor the season started? Secondly, there is a big distinction between regular season wins and playoff success in the form of a Super Bowl win or appearance.

 

[USArmyVet]

Hey McFly, the Cowboys haven’t been to the Super Bowl in 26 years because of the QB play but because of the GM. But we get it. You hate Dak.

LOL...did I blame Dak for the last 30 years or is this another feeble attempt at you trying to disguise your morbid emotional defense of Dak at all costs when you perceive even the slightest of criticism, that which Dak surely deserves for his part of the last near 30 years.

 

[Flamma]

If you look, there really isn't a long history of teams doing well paying their QB 40-50m. A disproportionate number of players who go deep in the playoffs are on their rookie deals. The list of successful QB's is basically:
1. Patrick Mahomes
. . . . and he did it once.

https://www.spotrac.com/spots/super-bowl-qb-cap-percentages-1397/

Almost all of those QB's were making 5 to 10% of the cap.

Yep, not even winning the SB, just getting there. It's usually QBs with low cap hits or on rookie deals. Peyton Manning's cap hit with Denver was 15% in 2015. That's high too, but then again, he's pretty good. I don't know what Matt Ryan's was for 2016.

 

[doomsday9084]

Yep, not even winning the SB, just getting there. It's usually QBs with low cap hits or on rookie deals. Peyton Manning's cap hit with Denver was 15% in 2015. That's high too, but then again, he's pretty good. I don't know what Matt Ryan's was for 2016.

I'll just point to Aaron Rodgers. REALLY good QB and the organization isn't the Browns or something. Won the super bowl making 5.5% of the cap and never got there again. Was usually good enough to keep his team relevant but just didn't ever get over the hump.

Stories like that are legion. Paying a good QB top money seems like its a near guarantee of many playoff appearances with minimal playoff success.

 

[baltcowboy]

Being on the owners side is an unintended consequence of being a fan.

If I climb a tree to save my neighbor's cat, am I on my neighbor's side, or do I just love cats? I'm not going to cheer a record breaking contract if it hurts the rest of the team. I want the team to win. It would be just the opposite if there was no cap. I'd want ownership to pay the good players whatever it took to keep them on the team.

I get it but I know most fans if not all are in favor of our countries capitalism policies. It’s funny how the owners are benefiting from capitalism by taking every cent that they can get from television and merchandising but fans get upset because Dak is in a commercial or a mediocre player does rap music on the side. We as fans can’t have it both ways.

 

[CouchCoach]

I'll just point to Aaron Rodgers. REALLY good QB and the organization isn't the Browns or something. Won the super bowl making 5.5% of the cap and never got there again. Was usually good enough to keep his team relevant but just didn't ever get over the hump.

Stories like that are legion. Paying a good QB top money seems like its a near guarantee of many playoff appearances with minimal playoff success.

What is the alternative? Try to always have a QB in his first contract for 5 years and hope the tag amount isn't the same as a big contract?

That takes some planning and being set up and most likely not taking a QB in the top 3 spots because of a team's record.

Prescott had an impressive rookie season because they were set up for a QB to step in and execute and he was a later rounds pick. Same thing with Hurts stepping in, they were ready and then added some pieces.

Mahomes isn't the rule; he is the exception and the length of time it takes these rookies to develop and the teams around them is going to make it tough for teams not to go 2nd contract with them. Burrow, Herbert and Lawrence will all get their 2nd contracts and they will all be in that 45-50M range. Their owners have little choice.

The challenge for a lot of teams is what to do first? Get the guy and build around him or build it ready for the QB to step in? The latter seems the way to go if they can keep the pieces around him while he develops.

 

[Flamma]

I get it but I know most fans if not all are in favor of our countries capitalism policies. It’s funny how the owners are benefiting from capitalism by taking every cent that they can get from television and merchandising but fans get upset because Dak is in a commercial or a mediocre player does rap music on the side. We as fans can’t have it both ways.

The owners make all of the rules and have it all in their favor. The cap makes it a 0 sum game and they love it. But they don't play by that same game. Unless the sport becomes less popular nothing will change. I don't know why anyone would be upset by a Dak commercial. Is it with the mindset of taking less because he gets extra sponsors due to being the Cowboys QB? Again, that all falls into the same perspective of a fan. Hoping to make the team better. I'm not going to criticize him for making as much as he can.

I feel like I have to stress this point, but I don't necessarily disagree with you. What the owners make doesn't affect the product they can put on the field. The salary cap does. So when fans see Aaron Rodgers take a 3 year 50M per contract, basically taking them out of playoff contention just so that he can bathe in gold coins, that angers a lot of people because it affects the team. No one would care otherwise. They care because a man that has more money than he'll ever spend in a lifetime only thought about more money, not winning.

 

[Flamma]

I'll just point to Aaron Rodgers. REALLY good QB and the organization isn't the Browns or something. Won the super bowl making 5.5% of the cap and never got there again. Was usually good enough to keep his team relevant but just didn't ever get over the hump.

Stories like that are legion. Paying a good QB top money seems like its a near guarantee of many playoff appearances with minimal playoff success.

Agree 100%. But when you have a QB that good I'd pay him. Because you're in the mix most of the time. But I wouldn't do that with anything other than an elite QB. To me it's pointless to extend QBs not at or near that level.