Research - Dak's Deep Passing

[Crown Royal]

A few days ago I posted an article describing how I feel the Cowboys should spend their 10 days between a great win against NOLA and how to improve. In that article, I posted a hypothesis that I have since repeated elsewhere:

Mechanics, Timers and Awareness: Dak played really good[SIC]. His mistakes are still forcing him short of being brilliant. He needs to take a day off today and maybe tomorrow, then drill mechanics for the remainder of the weak. The missed passes need to reduce (all QBs have them, but when you have a streaking WR deep, you cannot miss as much as he does). Single high press coverage invites the sideline streak and we are not taking advantage enough - I think we are something like 1 for 7 on opportunities to the go route the last 3-4 games. The OL owns bad protection, and that's just something that needs to be considered, but Dak needs to get the timer in his head that says after 2.5/3 seconds, either run the ball and pick up a couple or throw it away. THose are the options. Too many sacks are killing drives. A throw away or gain of 2 yards is a good play on 1st and 2nd down.

I've mentioned the 1 for 7 on the go-route a few times, and while I haven't been challenged, I continue to see a few threads mentioning that every QB misses these and Dak is fine on downfield passing. I decided to turn to Next Gen Stats and take a look at Dak's performance since the bi-week on passes over 20 yards. While I'm specifically focused on SideLine passes, I'll go ahead and include deep seam pass as well, because there is one in Washington that he get credit as throwing a 90 yard TD. I think this means the pass Amari took to the house is counted not as far as it went in the air, but the YAC as well.

As a benchmark, I'll also be comparing the opposing QB's efficiency on >20 yards. It would be better to baseline the same QB through multiple games, but I only have so much free time.

SOURCE: Next Gen Stats
NOTE - I HIGHLY recommend you check the charts out by QB, week by week. They're very neat.

Week 9 - Tennessee Titans

Prescott: 3 Attempts, 0 Completions
Mariotta: 1 Attempt, 1 Completion

Week 9 - Philadelphia Eagles

Prescott: 2 Attempts, 0 Completions
Wentz: 5 Attempts, 1 Completion

Week 9 - Atlanta Falcons

Prescott: 3 Attempts, 0 Completions
Ryan: 5 Attempts, 1 Compltion

Week 9 - Washington

Prescott: 3 Attempts, 1 Completion
McCoy: 3 Attempts, 1 Completion

Week 9 - New Orleans Saints

Prescott: 3 Attempts, 1 Completion
Brees: 1 Attempt, 1 Completion

TOTALS:

Prescott: 14 Attempts, 2 Completions (14%)
Opponents: 15 Attempts, 5 Completions (33%)


CONCLUSION:

While my totals hypothesis was a little off, it was only in volume, as I had about half the attempts and completions in my head. Prescott has attempted 14 passes beyond 20 yards, completing two of them. One was a TD strike to Amari in the seam (after watching a replay, it looks like the ball itself travelled just at 25-30 yards), the other being the long pass to open the game against NOLA. Other QBs have fared slightly better, completing 3 more of those passes with just one more attempt.

With more time and the benefit of film, one could determine the quality of opportunities and attempts - something I don't really have time for. My view is that I would like to see these passes hit 33%, though. With the looks we get, just 3 more completions would be enough. The easiest way is for Dak to work on mechanics - there are 2-3 opportunities that have been missed that were uncontested. Just hitting those get's us to opponent baseline average!

Thanks for reading.

 

[fansince68]

Honestly, it seems life this staff does not look at film. We continue to make the same mistakes with little to no adjustments. This defense is playing lights out. All that is needed is for the offense to step up their game. Inject some creativity. Throw at least 2 balls deep early to get the single high safety thinking, couple that with some designed runs for Dak to keep the lbs and box safety thinking as well. And for gods sake, stop running Zeke just to run him. Don't run him again after he breaks a 15 yrd run, its late in the season, chances are he is not going to give you the exact same effort as the previous run. Perfect time to do a play action pass and let Zeke block.

 

[jazzcat22]

Consider the fact that this offense is a "take what the defense gives you" type of approach.
Yes conservative, do not force the ball. Ground game, long methodical drives. It also leaves more room for error if one wants to look at it that way.

But that is what they count on, ball protection. Though Dak needs to get that under control. But they count on taking those shorter passes. And now with Cooper they can make those YAC plays, and for long gains as we have seen.
And they have been taking several shots down field with Gallup. Not the ball in the air 60 yards like some want. But they are trying the higher % down the sideline passes of 30 yards or more over the 50 or 60 yard passes.

I am fine with that.
Maybe once Austin returns, they will have more opportunities for those. Cooper, Gallup, Austin and that opens it up for Beasley and the TE's in the middle, or seam routes. Eventually they hit on those passes.

 

[CWR]

One thing I dont often see mentioned on here is Dak and his success throwing intermediate balls. I haven't looked at nextgen or anywhere else but just watching the games he throws a pretty nice rope on the mid range passes. I think its one of his saving graces. That and his running ability are huge parts of his overall game.

 

[Crown Royal]

One thing I dont often see mentioned on here is Dak and his success throwing intermediate balls. I haven't looked at nextgen or anywhere else but just watching the games he throws a pretty nice rope on the mid range passes. I think its one of his saving graces. That and his running ability are huge parts of his overall game.

Eh, that's actually a weak area of his game according to NextGenStats. He isn't particularly dominant (as far as rating is concerned) in the 10-20 yard passing stats. See below. Now, I'd have to dig deep to see what the Amari Cooper affect may be, but I would say that past 10 yards is an area of opportunity for him to improve.

 

[Crown Royal]

Honestly, it seems life this staff does not look at film. We continue to make the same mistakes with little to no adjustments. This defense is playing lights out. All that is needed is for the offense to step up their game. Inject some creativity. Throw at least 2 balls deep early to get the single high safety thinking, couple that with some designed runs for Dak to keep the lbs and box safety thinking as well. And for gods sake, stop running Zeke just to run him. Don't run him again after he breaks a 15 yrd run, its late in the season, chances are he is not going to give you the exact same effort as the previous run. Perfect time to do a play action pass and let Zeke block.

There are certainly things the coaching team needs to improve as far as creating more opportunities, but I don't think deep passing is one of them. Dak attempted only 1 less passes deep than the opponents over the last 5 games, he just missed more than the opponents did, and some of these on some GREAT opportunities.

Your points are well taken, but as far as this thread is concerned, I have to say that this rests fully on Dak's shoulders, although a case can be made for his position coach failing to improve his technique.

 

[Crown Royal]

Consider the fact that this offense is a "take what the defense gives you" type of approach.
Yes conservative, do not force the ball. Ground game, long methodical drives. It also leaves more room for error if one wants to look at it that way.

But that is what they count on, ball protection. Though Dak needs to get that under control. But they count on taking those shorter passes. And now with Cooper they can make those YAC plays, and for long gains as we have seen.
And they have been taking several shots down field with Gallup. Not the ball in the air 60 yards like some want. But they are trying the higher % down the sideline passes of 30 yards or more over the 50 or 60 yard passes.

I am fine with that.
Maybe once Austin returns, they will have more opportunities for those. Cooper, Gallup, Austin and that opens it up for Beasley and the TE's in the middle, or seam routes. Eventually they hit on those passes.

They specifically aren't doing what you mentioned in bold. This analysis took into account all attemps over 20 yards. They are neither at a higher % nor completion than the competition. This is an area of opportunity for Dak and the offense, because I think everyone would agree the opportunities are there.

 

[erod]

Honestly, it seems life this staff does not look at film. We continue to make the same mistakes with little to no adjustments. This defense is playing lights out. All that is needed is for the offense to step up their game. Inject some creativity. Throw at least 2 balls deep early to get the single high safety thinking, couple that with some designed runs for Dak to keep the lbs and box safety thinking as well. And for gods sake, stop running Zeke just to run him. Don't run him again after he breaks a 15 yrd run, its late in the season, chances are he is not going to give you the exact same effort as the previous run. Perfect time to do a play action pass and let Zeke block.

They call it. He just doesn't throw it.

 

[mattjames2010]

Honestly, it seems life this staff does not look at film. We continue to make the same mistakes with little to no adjustments. This defense is playing lights out. All that is needed is for the offense to step up their game. Inject some creativity. Throw at least 2 balls deep early to get the single high safety thinking, couple that with some designed runs for Dak to keep the lbs and box safety thinking as well. And for gods sake, stop running Zeke just to run him. Don't run him again after he breaks a 15 yrd run, its late in the season, chances are he is not going to give you the exact same effort as the previous run. Perfect time to do a play action pass and let Zeke block.

Have you ever watched Linehan teams in the past? LOL he is all about the deep ball. That simply isn’t Dak’s game.

 

[phildadon86]

Have you ever watched Linehan teams in the past? LOL he is all about the deep ball. That simply isn’t Dak’s game.

He was mostly the deep ball guy when he has had Megatron, Dez etc. hasnt really been a part of this offense even when romo was here

 

[Willfreedom909]

Tells me Dak is better than Romo.

 

[pansophy]

A few days ago I posted an article describing how I feel the Cowboys should spend their 10 days between a great win against NOLA and how to improve. In that article, I posted a hypothesis that I have since repeated elsewhere:



I've mentioned the 1 for 7 on the go-route a few times, and while I haven't been challenged, I continue to see a few threads mentioning that every QB misses these and Dak is fine on downfield passing. I decided to turn to Next Gen Stats and take a look at Dak's performance since the bi-week on passes over 20 yards. While I'm specifically focused on SideLine passes, I'll go ahead and include deep seam pass as well, because there is one in Washington that he get credit as throwing a 90 yard TD. I think this means the pass Amari took to the house is counted not as far as it went in the air, but the YAC as well.

As a benchmark, I'll also be comparing the opposing QB's efficiency on >20 yards. It would be better to baseline the same QB through multiple games, but I only have so much free time.

SOURCE: Next Gen Stats
NOTE - I HIGHLY recommend you check the charts out by QB, week by week. They're very neat.

Week 9 - Tennessee Titans

Prescott: 3 Attempts, 0 Completions
Mariotta: 1 Attempt, 1 Completion

Week 9 - Philadelphia Eagles

Prescott: 2 Attempts, 0 Completions
Wentz: 5 Attempts, 1 Completion

Week 9 - Atlanta Falcons

Prescott: 3 Attempts, 0 Completions
Ryan: 5 Attempts, 1 Compltion

Week 9 - Washington

Prescott: 3 Attempts, 1 Completion
McCoy: 3 Attempts, 1 Completion

Week 9 - New Orleans Saints

Prescott: 3 Attempts, 1 Completion
Brees: 1 Attempt, 1 Completion

TOTALS:

Prescott: 14 Attempts, 2 Completions (14%)
Opponents: 15 Attempts, 5 Completions (33%)


CONCLUSION:

While my totals hypothesis was a little off, it was only in volume, as I had about half the attempts and completions in my head. Prescott has attempted 14 passes beyond 20 yards, completing two of them. One was a TD strike to Amari in the seam (after watching a replay, it looks like the ball itself travelled just at 25-30 yards), the other being the long pass to open the game against NOLA. Other QBs have fared slightly better, completing 3 more of those passes with just one more attempt.

With more time and the benefit of film, one could determine the quality of opportunities and attempts - something I don't really have time for. My view is that I would like to see these passes hit 33%, though. With the looks we get, just 3 more completions would be enough. The easiest way is for Dak to work on mechanics - there are 2-3 opportunities that have been missed that were uncontested. Just hitting those get's us to opponent baseline average!

Thanks for reading.

Hard to judge this based on 1 game. Not that I expect you to do it, but I would be way more convinced if it was for the season. Yes Dak missed Gallup against the Saints but he has hit a number of go routes this year and imo has started to throw outside the numbers more often too, deeper than 10 yards.

 

[Crown Royal]

Hard to judge this based on 1 game. Not that I expect you to do it, but I would be way more convinced if it was for the season. Yes Dak missed Gallup against the Saints but he has hit a number of go routes this year and imo has started to throw outside the numbers more often too, deeper than 10 yards.

I'm not sure you read what I posted. This was a study of the last 5 games, not just the saints game.

 

[pansophy]

I'm not sure you read what I posted. This was a study of the last 5 games, not just the saints game.

Ah, I saw "Week 9" for all the comparisons. That threw me...

 

[Crown Royal]

Ah, I saw "Week 9" for all the comparisons. That threw me...

Whoops! Sorry I copied the format the first time and forgot to change the week.

 

[Kevinicus]

Eh, that's actually a weak area of his game according to NextGenStats. He isn't particularly dominant (as far as rating is concerned) in the 10-20 yard passing stats. See below. Now, I'd have to dig deep to see what the Amari Cooper affect may be, but I would say that past 10 yards is an area of opportunity for him to improve.

See that bottom green corner? That's Zeke right there.

 

[pansophy]

Whoops! Sorry I copied the format the first time and forgot to change the week.

I like the next gen stats a lot...

 

[Crown Royal]

See that bottom green corner? That's Zeke right there.

Yep. You know it's funny, I don't have access to the all 22 but I feel like there are 2-4 pass plays per game that Dak could dump it off to Zeke and gain 8-12 yards. On the occasion he does (outside of screens) it seems like he was about a half second late on the throw allowing the defense time to adjust.

Again, that's conjecture and without the benefit of all 22 to understand the defense fully, but I know there have been missed opportunities earlier in the season.

 

[Aviano90]

Not worried about low % plays ran a low % of time. I'd rather he focus on improving some of the other mistakes on the higher % plays that are being made.

 

[Ken]

I'm not sure you read what I posted. This was a study of the last 5 games, not just the saints game.

It is actually through week 10 and does not include the saints, falcons or the Commanders game.

Not that it matter much because quickly cruching the numbers, Dak is 2 for 8 and opponents are 3-9.