Return of the Dak

[xwalker]

Be it based on percentage or count, the issue remains the same. I am very familiar with the study you are referring to because I'm the one that dropped the video on it. The guy that conducted this study explained they went threw every pass thrown by QB's last year and counted all the catches completed to receivers who had a defender close by.

So think about it: Sure, a portion of those passes may have spoke to Dak's accuracy, however, I'd bet there are a few of those passes they used to support this claim that wasn't a result of accuracy but in fact inaccuracy. For instance, what about all those times where the receiver beat the corner responsible for covering him and had a couple steps on him when Dak threw, but because the ball was underthrown or late, the defender was able to close the window before the ball arrived. On the surface, that catch may have looked like a really accurate pass, but the ugly truth is had he put more air under it or thrown it a second sooner, the receiver would have been able to catch the pass in stride, still had the step and would have likely taken the ball further if not for a touchdown.

Please understand. I am not one of those advocating Dak be replaced. I believe he is the franchise QB. Furthermore, I'm not one of those lazy analyst that looks at the stats accrued over the course of the season, note the disparity between his first and second season and assume he had a Sophomore Slump. As I hinted in the OP, up until the Atlanta game, Dak played great. After that Atlanta game, however, the offense simply fell apart and regressed to it's 2015 self.

Is it all Dak's fault? Absolutely not...not even close, in my opinion. I blame coaching before I blame anyone for that Atlanta debacle. But it did happen, it did clearly impact Dak's game and so I am hoping whatever was broken down the stretch was fixed over the course of the offseason.

Good point. You thought through this before replying with is always my goal when posting. It makes for good debate and my own preceptions become more clear when debating a topic.

My first response is that stats from a different source show that the Cowboys receivers had poor separation numbers with (oddly) only TWill getting decent separation while the others were all below average.

If the WR/TE group had below average separation then there is a high probability that most throws were indeed into legit tight windows.

I'm going to call your your scenario of a late ball a statistical data error. I think even with the possible error margin that it would still only mean he was a little lower in the ranking. Maybe if the analysis was really sloppy his ranking with the data error margin removed would be #5 instead of #1. I don't think there is a possibility that he was really bottom 16.

My general point is that the narrative keeps getting repeated that he had terrible accuracy. Much of that narrative is emotional more than factual.

Even Romo was not the most accurate QB. Neither Romo or Dak close to Aikman in that category.

Aikman was the most accurate QB in history based on many many analysis that I've seen. He was stressed out one time because he had been targeting the top of the numbers on Kevin Williams' jersey and had just realized that Williams preferred the ball at the botton of the jersey numbers. It's similar to how LP snaps the ball on field goas such that the laces are in a specific spot when it gets to the holder. He is repeatable to with 1/4 turn of the ball.

Romo had his share of misses. I remember a few that were behind Witten on crossing routes for example. One of those hit Witten's foot and got kicked up and intercepted.

The main reason for the Dak narrative, IMO, was not due to his actual inaccurate throws but was instead based on throws fans thought were wildly inaccurate but in reality were just throwaways when Dez ran the route incorrectly or because Dez was not open.

Dak waited longer on Dez to get open than you would normally want a QB to wait. Often by the time he had waited for Dez to get open it was too late to go elsewhere with the ball. I think he was coached to wait on Dez.

I think the coaches bought into the concept that you have to give Dez more time but it will pay off. This was a huge part of what Romo did during his years with Dez. Romo would buy extra time and eventually Dez would get open or at least into a favorable position for a jump ball. I think Garrett pushed this concept onto Dak. Unfortunately since 2014 when Romo was last really healthy, Dez had lost the ability to reward the QB for waiting.

Some of the most obvious were when Dez was near the sideline. Dak would eventually just throw it away over his head or sometimes when the DB was completely behind Dez, then Dak would throw it short. Many times he did what I would call a partial throw away. He would throw it not really expecting Dez to catch but close enough that if Dez were able to react that he might have a chance to catch it. The balls thrown short when Dez was near the sideline and about 10 yards downfield come to mind. In repeated reviews you could see times where if Dez reacted towards the ball at just the right time that he had a chance but the ball was in a spot where the defense had zero chance for on INT.

Fans thought all of these types of throws were just inaccurate. What they could not realize is that it was different with other receivers. Dak was not waiting on other receiving options the way he waited on Dez and therefore was not often in those situations were he was going to wait for Dez to get positioning on the DB or time was up and he just threw it away.

 

[jday]

Good point. You thought through this before replying with is always my goal when posting. It makes for good debate and my own preceptions become more clear when debating a topic.

My first response is that stats from a different source show that the Cowboys receivers had poor separation numbers with (oddly) only TWill getting decent separation while the others were all below average.

If the WR/TE group had below average separation then there is a high probability that most throws were indeed into legit tight windows.

I'm going to call your your scenario of a late ball a statistical data error. I think even with the possible error margin that it would still only mean he was a little lower in the ranking. Maybe if the analysis was really sloppy his ranking with the data error margin removed would be #5 instead of #1. I don't think there is a possibility that he was really bottom 16.

My general point is that the narrative keeps getting repeated that he had terrible accuracy. Much of that narrative is emotional more than factual.

Even Romo was not the most accurate QB. Neither Romo or Dak close to Aikman in that category.

Aikman was the most accurate QB in history based on many many analysis that I've seen. He was stressed out one time because he had been targeting the top of the numbers on Kevin Williams' jersey and had just realized that Williams preferred the ball at the botton of the jersey numbers. It's similar to how LP snaps the ball on field goas such that the laces are in a specific spot when it gets to the holder. He is repeatable to with 1/4 turn of the ball.

Romo had his share of misses. I remember a few that were behind Witten on crossing routes for example. One of those hit Witten's foot and got kicked up and intercepted.

The main reason for the Dak narrative, IMO, was not due to his actual inaccurate throws but was instead based on throws fans thought were wildly inaccurate but in reality were just throwaways when Dez ran the route incorrectly or because Dez was not open.

Dak waited longer on Dez to get open than you would normally want a QB to wait. Often by the time he had waited for Dez to get open it was too late to go elsewhere with the ball. I think he was coached to wait on Dez.

I think the coaches bought into the concept that you have to give Dez more time but it will pay off. This was a huge part of what Romo did during his years with Dez. Romo would buy extra time and eventually Dez would get open or at least into a favorable position for a jump ball. I think Garrett pushed this concept onto Dak. Unfortunately since 2014 when Romo was last really healthy, Dez had lost the ability to reward the QB for waiting.

Some of the most obvious were when Dez was near the sideline. Dak would eventually just throw it away over his head or sometimes when the DB was completely behind Dez, then Dak would throw it short. Many times he did what I would call a partial throw away. He would throw it not really expecting Dez to catch but close enough that if Dez were able to react that he might have a chance to catch it. The balls thrown short when Dez was near the sideline and about 10 yards downfield come to mind. In repeated reviews you could see times where if Dez reacted towards the ball at just the right time that he had a chance but the ball was in a spot where the defense had zero chance for on INT.

Fans thought all of these types of throws were just inaccurate. What they could not realize is that it was different with other receivers. Dak was not waiting on other receiving options the way he waited on Dez and therefore was not often in those situations were he was going to wait for Dez to get positioning on the DB or time was up and he just threw it away.

I actually agree with just about everything you said here. You are correct in your diagnosis stating that many people have sited poor throws on Dak when you can clearly see that he and the receiver were simply not on the same page. For instance, there is one pass I recall where the ball sailed over Zeke's head as he was running out of the back field. The first time I saw it, it just looked like a duck that got away from Dak. But in the subsequent watches, I think what happened is Zeke went off script because he thought the blitz would get there before Dak could pass it, so he cut off his route. Dak threw the ball where he thought Zeke was going to be because the rush was in his face and he didn't see that Zeke had turned around to try and give him his numbers to throw to. To the untrained eye, it looked like a horribly inaccurate and overthrown ball when in reality Zeke didn't finish the route. Had he kept running, the ball would have hit him in stride for a decent gain.

I also think there is a small contingency of fans who don't understand that sometimes throwing the ball away is a smart play. They don't know this because for all the greatness Romo brought to Dallas, he had a tendency to try and make something out of nothing far too often and it would set the offense back with him taking a sack instead of throwing it away. That is what both made Romo great at times and terrible to live with at times.

I don't think Dak's inaccurate nor have I ever parroted that narrative to my knowledge. This particular debate started when you quoted that "tight window study." My arguments, to be clear, was merely pointing out that I don't think that particular study is an accurate way to determine accuracy for the aforementioned reasons in my last post. I did not, however, argue the point to prove Dak is inaccurate...just siting my opinion on that particular study.

Dak issues, in my opinion, was that he lost faith in his supporting cast (namely the OL and his WR's). For the lack of a better description, he seem to be playing scared down the stretch following the Atlanta game. Like I said in the OP, after what happened in the Atlanta game it's hard to blame him, but here's hoping they've fixed whatever ailed him.

For what it's worth, I have no doubts they've done everything in there power to solve that riddle. I also think, piggy-backing on your point about having to wait on Dez to gain separation, that this new and improved receiver group will be more conducive to Dak's ascension as the QB for the Dallas Cowboys. For the most part, they focused on bringing in guys who are strong route runners and adept at being where they are supposed to be when they are supposed to be. That will be significant for Dak, because he can now go back to just throwing the ball to whomever is open and not have to deal with guys lobbying for balls.

I love both Dez and Witten, but it would not surprise me learn that when the game was on the line these guys were petitioning to save the day. Mind you, being the competitive players that they are, I honestly can't blame them. But I don't think that was fair to Dak considering he's not Romo and therefore unable to read defenses as fast as Romo to get the ball to them even when the defense knows it's coming to them. Dak might eventually get there, but he's not there yet. So I honestly believe the removal of both Dez and Witten from the equation was a true addition by subtraction.

 

[dallasdave]

oh, and I also think Rico Gathers is going to be pretty doggone good.

 

[Cowboy4ever]

I didn't read the novel in the first post but does it mean we can return Dak to MS. State and exchange him for a good QB? That would be awesome.

 

[jday]

I didn't read the novel in the first post but does it mean we can return Dak to MS. State and exchange him for a good QB? That would be awesome.

I'll bite.

Why do you think Dak is not a good QB?

 

[Bullflop]

The 2017 version of the Cowboys OL was nothing more than a vain attempt to be the dominating equal of what the 2016 OL was. Dak did what he could to counteract what the OL was able to do but it would have taken a miracle performance from one of very modest experience could do. 2018 will more than likely be a different story to anyone with enough knowledge to know that. If that's not enough, the schedule will still be tough but one that is somewhat easier than that of 2017. Dak will be a year more advanced in experience and better prepared to shine. Be optimistic in the chances for his return to greater achievement if you have any semblance of good sense. The level of his team support certainly indicates as much.

 

[xwalker]

I actually agree with just about everything you said here. You are correct in your diagnosis stating that many people have sited poor throws on Dak when you can clearly see that he and the receiver were simply not on the same page. For instance, there is one pass I recall where the ball sailed over Zeke's head as he was running out of the back field. The first time I saw it, it just looked like a duck that got away from Dak. But in the subsequent watches, I think what happened is Zeke went off script because he thought the blitz would get there before Dak could pass it, so he cut off his route. Dak threw the ball where he thought Zeke was going to be because the rush was in his face and he didn't see that Zeke had turned around to try and give him his numbers to throw to. To the untrained eye, it looked like a horribly inaccurate and overthrown ball when in reality Zeke didn't finish the route. Had he kept running, the ball would have hit him in stride for a decent gain.

I also think there is a small contingency of fans who don't understand that sometimes throwing the ball away is a smart play. They don't know this because for all the greatness Romo brought to Dallas, he had a tendency to try and make something out of nothing far too often and it would set the offense back with him taking a sack instead of throwing it away. That is what both made Romo great at times and terrible to live with at times.

I don't think Dak's inaccurate nor have I ever parroted that narrative to my knowledge. This particular debate started when you quoted that "tight window study." My arguments, to be clear, was merely pointing out that I don't think that particular study is an accurate way to determine accuracy for the aforementioned reasons in my last post. I did not, however, argue the point to prove Dak is inaccurate...just siting my opinion on that particular study.

Dak issues, in my opinion, was that he lost faith in his supporting cast (namely the OL and his WR's). For the lack of a better description, he seem to be playing scared down the stretch following the Atlanta game. Like I said in the OP, after what happened in the Atlanta game it's hard to blame him, but here's hoping they've fixed whatever ailed him.

For what it's worth, I have no doubts they've done everything in there power to solve that riddle. I also think, piggy-backing on your point about having to wait on Dez to gain separation, that this new and improved receiver group will be more conducive to Dak's ascension as the QB for the Dallas Cowboys. For the most part, they focused on bringing in guys who are strong route runners and adept at being where they are supposed to be when they are supposed to be. That will be significant for Dak, because he can now go back to just throwing the ball to whomever is open and not have to deal with guys lobbying for balls.

I love both Dez and Witten, but it would not surprise me learn that when the game was on the line these guys were petitioning to save the day. Mind you, being the competitive players that they are, I honestly can't blame them. But I don't think that was fair to Dak considering he's not Romo and therefore unable to read defenses as fast as Romo to get the ball to them even when the defense knows it's coming to them. Dak might eventually get there, but he's not there yet. So I honestly believe the removal of both Dez and Witten from the equation was a true addition by subtraction.

Great points.

I remember the throw to Zeke very well. I totally agree with your conclusion. Dak threw where he expected Zeke to be located when the ball arrived but Zeke stopped or slowed up to be short of that location. Dak also wanted to get extra loft on the ball to clear the DL between him and Zeke This is the perfect example of fans misunderstanding what happened.

I would need to watch again but I think Zeke might have been able to get back out to the ball if he had just reacted a little earlier. IIRC the DL may have blocked his view of the ball for a split second.

Side note:
Romo sometimes struggled with the RB in the flat throws. It was not a big problem but for a guy will really good touch on some throws (back shoulder to Dez, etc) it was odd that he struggled to have touch on those.

I noticed the new QB White has above average touch on those throws to RBs. Touch is probably the best part of his game. Touch being accuracy but also speed and loft angle.

I think Dak has decent touch. He would zip it really aggressively at times, especially on specific quick throws to Witten but on other throws he would throw a ball with some loft that is easy to catch. I think that is one reason TWill had a better catch percentage in the two years with Dak than his years with Romo. TWill can't deal with high velocity throws very well.

Dak and Pressure
Percy had stats on games with less than and more than 40% pressure. Dak's stats were down in the over 40% games even on plays that the defense didn't get pressure.

I don't think he was scared or rattled. My observation was that he consciously decided that he needed to speed up and get rid of the ball faster. When he tried to speed up his delivery it caused him to throw harder and the balls would end up high at the target.

Dak does not have a compact delivery. His release is fast enough but obviously not like Romo who had one of the all-time quickest releases.

Where his delivery is occasionally a concern is not as much about speed but he needs more space around him than Romo to avoid being affected by pass rushers. It's not a huge issue but as we already know he does need a good OL to be successful. Aikman needed a good OL also; whereas, Romo could manage better than most QBs when the pass protection struggled.

Dak's interceptions were also (in general) a result of a conscious decision to take more risks in the 2nd half when they were struggling. After rewatching games many times you start to see patterns and things you don't notice originally. With Dak would come out on a possession at some point in the 2nd half when they were struggling and you could almost see a switch had flipped in his head and he would start taking more chances. It was still not Farve type risk taking but it was obvious that on the sideline he had decided it was time to be more agressive.

 

[Cowboy4ever]

I'll bite.

Why do you think Dak is not a good QB?

I just think he is very limited by his actual talent to play the position. I do think that if we get everything else elite level, i.e. running game, pass protection and defense, he will be fine and we will win games and maybe even a SB. But he is the defination of a game manager, bus driver, whatever you want to call it. He will never be in the same class of QB as Brees,Ryan, Eli, Romo, Big Ben, etc. He is more of a Brad Johnson type, who had a very nice career and won a SB with a Dominate D, so it can be done. But if I am looking for someone with true QB ability (able to read a D, able to make all the throws, able to anticapate throws, pocket awareness, able to pick up the slack of those around him, etc) then Dak is not that guy, IMO. But we will see this year and take it from there. I will be rooting every sunday for win and a SB trip but it's hard to win in this league with either an Elite D or an Elite QB, so we need to pray our D takes a big step forward.

 

[Cowboy4ever]

Great points.

I remember the throw to Zeke very well. I totally agree with your conclusion. Dak threw where he expected Zeke to be located when the ball arrived but Zeke stopped or slowed up to be short of that location. Dak also wanted to get extra loft on the ball to clear the DL between him and Zeke This is the perfect example of fans misunderstanding what happened.

I would need to watch again but I think Zeke might have been able to get back out to the ball if he had just reacted a little earlier. IIRC the DL may have blocked his view of the ball for a split second.

Side note:
Romo sometimes struggled with the RB in the flat throws. It was not a big problem but for a guy will really good touch on some throws (back shoulder to Dez, etc) it was odd that he struggled to have touch on those.

I noticed the new QB White has above average touch on those throws to RBs. Touch is probably the best part of his game. Touch being accuracy but also speed and loft angle.

I think Dak has decent touch. He would zip it really aggressively at times, especially on specific quick throws to Witten but on other throws he would throw a ball with some loft that is easy to catch. I think that is one reason TWill had a better catch percentage in the two years with Dak than his years with Romo. TWill can't deal with high velocity throws very well.

Dak and Pressure
Percy had stats on games with less than and more than 40% pressure. Dak's stats were down in the over 40% games even on plays that the defense didn't get pressure.

I don't think he was scared or rattled. My observation was that he consciously decided that he needed to speed up and get rid of the ball faster. When he tried to speed up his delivery it caused him to throw harder and the balls would end up high at the target.

Dak does not have a compact delivery. His release is fast enough but obviously not like Romo who had one of the all-time quickest releases.

Where his delivery is occasionally a concern is not as much about speed but he needs more space around him than Romo to avoid being affected by pass rushers. It's not a huge issue but as we already know he does need a good OL to be successful. Aikman needed a good OL also; whereas, Romo could manage better than most QBs when the pass protection struggled.

Dak's interceptions were also (in general) a result of a conscious decision to take more risks in the 2nd half when they were struggling. After rewatching games many times you start to see patterns and things you don't notice originally. With Dak would come out on a possession at some point in the 2nd half when they were struggling and you could almost see a switch had flipped in his head and he would start taking more chances. It was still not Farve type risk taking but it was obvious that on the sideline he had decided it was time to be more agressive.

If you guys are talking the Seattle game with the over throw of Zeke, I have to disagree with your conclusions. That was a horrible throw, one of if not the worst I have seen espeically at the NFL level. Dak rushed his throw because he felt pressure tha wasn't there, he used horrible mechanics and that is what resulted in a overthrowing Zeke by 5 or 6 yards when Zeke was only 3-5 yards from him. It's just not something you expect an NFL QB to do.

 

[Hennessy_King]

I think someone warned me of these posts

 

[jday]

I just think he is very limited by his actual talent to play the position. I do think that if we get everything else elite level, i.e. running game, pass protection and defense, he will be fine and we will win games and maybe even a SB. But he is the defination of a game manager, bus driver, whatever you want to call it. He will never be in the same class of QB as Brees,Ryan, Eli, Romo, Big Ben, etc. He is more of a Brad Johnson type, who had a very nice career and won a SB with a Dominate D, so it can be done. But if I am looking for someone with true QB ability (able to read a D, able to make all the throws, able to anticapate throws, pocket awareness, able to pick up the slack of those around him, etc) then Dak is not that guy, IMO. But we will see this year and take it from there. I will be rooting every sunday for win and a SB trip but it's hard to win in this league with either an Elite D or an Elite QB, so we need to pray our D takes a big step forward.

Fair enough.

 

[dallasdave]

The 2017 version of the Cowboys OL was nothing more than a vain attempt to be the dominating equal of what the 2016 OL was. Dak did what he could to counteract what the OL was able to do but it would have taken a miracle performance from one of very modest experience could do. 2018 will more than likely be a different story to anyone with enough knowledge to know that. If that's not enough, the schedule will still be tough but one that is somewhat easier than that of 2017. Dak will be a year more advanced in experience and better prepared to shine. Be optimistic in the chances for his return to greater achievement if you have any semblance of good sense. The level of his team support certainly indicates as much.

2018 O-Line will be dominate