Revisiting Romo's Late Game Stats

[percyhoward]

In response to Ntegrase96's post about the last 5 minutes of games. (I am on a new phone, and replying within that thread proved an insurmountable challenge.)

He compared the first 55 minutes vs. last 5. I will compare the first 45 minutes vs. the last 15 to show how the parameters drawn by the researcher can make all the difference in the world.

Also, for the sake of relevance, I'll only look at the 4th-quarter passes when the difference in the game was no more than one score (+ or - 8 points), and I'll also look at OT. That is how "Late and Close" is defined.

The first number is the player's late and close rating, the second is his rating through the first 3 quarters.

Rodgers 107.2 / 110.7 (-3.5)
Romo 95.7 / 94.1 (+1.6)
Brees 93.0 / 103.9 (-10.9)
PManning 88.9 / 103.7 (-14.8)
EManning 88.2 / 82.2 (+6.0)
Brady 85.9 / 102.5 (-16.6)
Roethlisbgr 82.1 / 96.4 (-14.3)
Ryan 81.2 / 99.0 (-17.8)
Rivers 69.0 / 99.9 (-30.9)

Most of these QB are 10+ points worse in late and close situations. On average, in fact, their rating goes down 11.3 points. Romo's actually goes up, which I think is good to know.

Remember, this does include the last 5 minutes of the game.

 

[EST_1986]

Give me the W's and L's that's the only stat that matters.

 

[JD_KaPow]

In response to Ntegrase96's post about the last 5 minutes of games. (I am on a new phone, and replying within that thread proved an insurmountable challenge.)

He compared the first 55 minutes vs. last 5. I will compare the first 45 minutes vs. the last 15 to show how the parameters drawn by the researcher can make all the difference in the world.

Also, for the sake of relevance, I'll only look at the 4th-quarter passes when the difference in the game was no more than one score (+ or - 8 points), and I'll also look at OT. That is how "Late and Close" is defined.

The first number is the player's late and close rating, the second is his rating through the first 3 quarters.

Rodgers 107.2 / 110.7 (-3.5)
Romo 95.7 / 94.1 (+1.6)
Brees 93.0 / 103.9 (-10.9)
PManning 88.9 / 103.7 (-14.8)
EManning 88.2 / 82.2 (+6.0)
Brady 85.9 / 102.5 (-16.6)
Roethlisbgr 82.1 / 96.4 (-14.3)
Ryan 81.2 / 99.0 (-17.8)
Rivers 69.0 / 99.9 (-30.9)

Most of these QB are 10+ points worse in late and close situations. On average, in fact, their rating goes down 11.3 points. Romeo's actually goes up, which I think is good to know.

Remember, this does include the last 5 minutes of the game.

That's all well and good, but did you factor the fact that he's the chokiest choker in choketown into your numbers?

 

[Denim Chicken]

Give me the W's and L's that's the only stat that matters.

If your trying to evaluate an individual player, that is the last stat that would matter.

 

[Section446]

Great to know, how many rings does he have?

 

[EST_1986]

If your trying to evaluate an individual player, that is the last stat that would matter.

So you mean it doesn't help prove the point so it's excluded.

 

[TrailBlazer]

If your trying to evaluate an individual player, that is the last stat that would matter.

Yeah maybe if you're evaluating a DT.

For a qb, wins and losses matter and they will eventually reflect ones legacy.

 

[TrailBlazer]

Stats will show you what you want to see. Anyone can find a stat to bck up their opinions even if they're the furthest thing from the truth.

 

[EST_1986]

And if we're taking the most important QB stat of wins out of the equation. We should also take out the yardage when a WR makes an amazing run after the catch or a DB slips or a missed tackle.

 

[the_h0wey]

In response to Ntegrase96's post about the last 5 minutes of games. (I am on a new phone, and replying within that thread proved an insurmountable challenge.)

He compared the first 55 minutes vs. last 5. I will compare the first 45 minutes vs. the last 15 to show how the parameters drawn by the researcher can make all the difference in the world.

Also, for the sake of relevance, I'll only look at the 4th-quarter passes when the difference in the game was no more than one score (+ or - 8 points), and I'll also look at OT. That is how "Late and Close" is defined.

The first number is the player's late and close rating, the second is his rating through the first 3 quarters.

Rodgers 107.2 / 110.7 (-3.5)
Romo 95.7 / 94.1 (+1.6)
Brees 93.0 / 103.9 (-10.9)
PManning 88.9 / 103.7 (-14.8)
EManning 88.2 / 82.2 (+6.0)
Brady 85.9 / 102.5 (-16.6)
Roethlisbgr 82.1 / 96.4 (-14.3)
Ryan 81.2 / 99.0 (-17.8)
Rivers 69.0 / 99.9 (-30.9)

Most of these QB are 10+ points worse in late and close situations. On average, in fact, their rating goes down 11.3 points. Romo's actually goes up, which I think is good to know.

Remember, this does include the last 5 minutes of the game.

Interesting, but who is Romeo?

 

[Denim Chicken]

Yeah maybe if you're evaluating a DT.

For a qb, wins and losses matter and they will eventually reflect ones legacy.

No, that is dumb. You are totally ignoring every other position on offense and Defense when you use W/L.

 

[burmafrd]

So you mean it doesn't help prove the point so it's excluded.

That means since you do not like it - it is also invalid.

Constantly amazed at how many think football is a one player game

 

[burmafrd]

And if we're taking the most important QB stat of wins out of the equation. We should also take out the yardage when a WR makes an amazing run after the catch or a DB slips or a missed tackle.

and in trying to make wins all about one player you just show the usual agenda

 

[EST_1986]

That means since you do not like it - it is also invalid.

Constantly amazed at how many think football is a one player game

I'm just not a huge stats are everything guy. I'm a did we win or lose guy and we're talking about one player in this one thread who has cost us some crucial games.

 

[Denim Chicken]

So you mean it doesn't help prove the point so it's excluded.

No, I mean any thinking person should know that there are 11 people on each side of the ball and to attribute W/L the one individual is simplistic and proves nothing.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Yeah maybe if you're evaluating a DT.

For a qb, wins and losses matter and they will eventually reflect ones legacy.

It's not even a real stat. It's amazing how dumb some people are.

 

[JD_KaPow]

So you mean it doesn't help prove the point so it's excluded.

Yes, because we should always assume people are being intellectually dishonest all the time.

W-L records are worthless for evaluating individual players. That's true in football and (apropos to another current thread) it's true in baseball. Can't speak for DC, but I for one apply that understanding across the board, and will never use individual wins and losses to argue for or against any player. John Elway was a great QB when his teams went 12-4 and when they went 5-11. Terry Bradshaw wasn't a great QB, even when his teams were winning the Super Bowl. And so on.

 

[EST_1986]

I know the Cowboys have been disappointing for a solid 20 years so I get that you're trying to make it better by saying look at these stats, wow the stats are great. But did we have a QB that took over and won in the clutch?

 

[Nova]

There's a chart with success rates for 4Q comebacks and game winning drives floating around the internet with regard to the top 20 or so quarterbacks.

The information is now outdated by a year, but I think it's still a relatively good indicator.

The 3 quarterbacks that have better than a 50% chance in those situations were Brady, Ryan, and Luck. So it's really surprising to see their struggles.

Romo was better than average in that regard, btw.

And to no one's surprise, it seems Eli Manning plays better to close out games.

Thanks, Percy

 

[Idgit]

I know the Cowboys have been disappointing for a solid 20 years so I get that you're trying to make it better by saying look at these stats, wow the stats are great. But did we have a QB that took over and won in the clutch?

This mentality is so frustrating to try to debate. You're literally saying you don't care about explanations, you only care about wins and losses, and then you're perfectly happy ignoring the tons of things that contribute to teams losing football games that have little or nothing to do with QB play. It is, obviously, a completely irrational argument to try to make.

And then, to write off people pointing out the exceedingly obvious as avoiding the point....gah! Your point is not your point. Your point is you're trying to hold somebody accountable for something they cannot be held solely accountable for. That's not an argument, that's a misunderstanding about how football games are won and lost.