jday
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For those of you unfamiliar with this concept, this is my opportunity to grant a voice to my inner-optimist (ME), pessimist (MYSELF) and realist (I) all in one contribution, granting you (the reader) Ring Side Seats to my internal battle royale regarding our beloved Dallas Cowboys and my thoughts on the upcoming 2018 regular season.
Without further ado….
ME
As is usually the case in this concept, MYSELF has an unfair advantage in this debate; in this town, negative outlooks rise to the front page like a hot air balloon on a day without gravity. Furthermore, it is only human nature to ignore status quo from a year ago…we want new reasons for enthusiasm…Zeke, Dak, Tank and that offensive line are old news and very little added over the course of the offseason is equipped to inspire the brand of confidence we fans demand.
Granted, there’s the return and rise up the depth chart of one Randall Gregory, but he’s a poor decision away from a lifetime band…so I completely understand if the Cowboys fanbase is treating his situation with crossed-fingers, rabbits foot and horse shoes.
Sean Lee is healthy…but for how long?
Connor Williams figures to be the new starting Left Guard, but most agree it’s going to take a year and an offseason before we can chisel his likeness next to the others looking out from the Great Wall of Dallas (Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, La’el Collins, Travis Frederick).
Dorance Armstrong (drafted in the fourth round this year) was a pleasant surprise in training camp/preseason in a draft class that was otherwise underwhelming and looks to be the first-line backup to Gregory, but even 1st round pick defensive ends typically max out at around 5 sacks for the first season.
Tavon Austin and Deonte Thompson seem to add a much needed speed element to this offense, but at the same time, we were able to snag Tavon for a 6th round pick for a good reason and despite being cut to allow the Cowboys to move Noah Brown to IR, as far as we know, no one was banging down Deonte’s door to sign him before the Cowboys could, which is another way of saying 31 other teams liked their worst receiver on their 53 man roster better than Deonte…which should give you a pretty good idea of his nationally perceived value.
While I am admittedly giddy about the potential ascension of the above-discussed players, they are by no means doing the heavy-lifting for my optimism. My confidence hinges on three parts to what I believe to be the overarching big picture: overall team youth, the nationally and locally parroted doubt despite contrary trending analytics, and the Cowboys ability to control the clock through their elite ground & pound offense and shut down the oppositions run game in return.
Since the birth of football in our great nation, there have been plenty of examples of players who played well into their 30’s and continued to play great with very little to no slip in performance. But if you were to divide that count of players by the number of players who have played the game period, you are most likely looking at a very small percentage overall. Furthermore, if you were to ask those players who continued to play great into their 30’s, they would more than likely admit they had to figure out new techniques and rely more on their instincts as opposed to athleticism to compete with the younger players.
It’s not rocket science. Younger teams tend to play better late in games as well as down the stretch of seasons. They are less susceptible to injury. They typically are faster from top to bottom. And, of course, lady luck is a cougar…she loves her some young men.
Of the Cowboys 53 players that made the team this past weekend, only 2 are over 30: Sean “Snake” Lee (32) and L.P. Ladouceur (37). The Cowboys average age is presently 25.4, however, this number will fluctuate slightly over the next few weeks as the roster takes its final shape.
Over the offseason, recency-bias became one of my new favorite things that smart people say. If you look at the various predictions made by the so-called “experts,” you may notice they tend to predict the same teams that were in the playoffs the previous year will be in the playoffs the following year, which leads to teams on the outside looking in from a year before being discounted and ignored, despite potentially missing the playoffs due to extenuating circumstances (such as dealing with injuries and/or suspensions to major contributors). Historically, making predictions in this manner means you will be right more than you are wrong…but make no mistake, on a few teams (maybe more), you will be wrong because to my knowledge, the same collection of teams repeating in the playoffs back-to-back never happens. And don’t fact check me, because if it has happened, it is still exceptionally rare.
The parity in this league provides razor thin differences between teams that actually made it into the playoffs and the teams that just missed the cut, therefore with all the changes that tend to occur over the course of an offseason, teams swapping places in the pecking order is commonplace. It’s the natural order of things here in the NFL and what separates football from every single sport in our great nation.
By Cowboys nation’s standards, last year was a terrible year…and yet, they still finished 9 & 7. But given that win/loss ratio, and considering that aforementioned parity, not much separates the Cowboys from every team that did in fact make it to the playoffs last year, including the Super Bowl winning Eagles.
Consider: How many losses last year could have been avoided last season if it were not for one fateful play late in games. The Packers won by 4. The Rams won by 5. Had the Cowboys won even one of those, they would have most likely been in the playoffs and how we collectively define last season would have completely changed. Sure, we most likely would still be disappointed, but the lens through which we view last season would be far more complimentary. What if Zeke hadn’t been suspended for 6 games? Do you think we still miss the playoffs? On that point, I’m not certain, but I lean towards believing it would have completely changed what otherwise became a Nightmare November.
Nevertheless, the current trend for the Cowboys that has been in place since 2011 is that the Cowboys are good one year and bad the next. If you consider last year to have been bad, it stands to reason that they will most likely be good in 2018….particularly considering the level of national and local doubt that is being levied on the Cowboys going into the season. Doubt for the Cowboys is the soil they tend to flourish in.
Throughout this past offseason I preached that the Cowboys ultimate focus should be on acquiring talent for the defense that is adept at shutting down the oppositions run. Granted, you still want to be able to shut down the pass…I’m not advocating ignoring that aspect of the game. However, since the Cowboys run a ball control offense that prefers to use the ground game to control the clock, wear down the opposing defense, and keep the oppositions offense on the sideline and out of rhythm, it stands to reason that complementing that style of offense would be a defense that can shut down the opposing offenses ground game in return.
See the Rams game from last year in particular for what I’m talking about. In the first half of that game, the Cowboys dominated the Rams on both sides of the ball. However, in the second half, Todd Gurley started finding space after Sean Lee was injured. The Rams were able to nullify the Cowboys ball control offense by simply controlling the ball on offense themselves. At that point, the contest became anybody’s game and the Rams capitalized with the comeback win.
When the Cowboys drafted Leighton Vander Esch, I was very much against it, and the above is a big reason why. I saw him as more adept in coverage than a run-stopper. Granted, eventually he will get better in this area, however, this season I believed he would be slow to react and thus allow the action to come to him, in much the same way Jaylon did last year. At the time, I thought the Cowboys were looking at Leighton as their new stating Middle Linebacker and they would slide (the disappointing up to that point) Jaylon over to strongside linebacker, where he would mostly see the field in obvious run situations.
Over the course of training camp and preseason, Jaylon disabused me of my false notions regarding his abilities as a player. I did not miss all the noise regarding him having a great offseason; I just had adopted an “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach, in consideration of that same narrative following him into last year.
Jaylon, paired with Sean, and a front 7 that added 3 surprise players in Randall Gregory, Antwuan Woods, and Dorance Armstrong could be absolutely stifling against the opposition’s attempts to match the Cowboys ground game. And if the oppositions offense fails to contest (or at least keep stride with) the Cowboys ability to control the ball through the ground game, the Cowboys most likely win. It really is that simple.
So again, if you ignore all the negative noise that surrounds the boys in blue, and just look at the big picture, the Cowboys are set up remarkably well to be sneaky good this year. They don’t have the marquee receiver or tight end anymore. Their offensive line will likely display a noticeable limp without their bearded-ambassador-of-badassitude Travis Frederick. But, in the end, the Cowboys overall youth teamed with nationwide underestimation and an elite ground game complemented by a defense that manufactures a plethora of 3rd and longs will contribute to a marked improvement over 2017. I refuse to make predictions beyond the regular season, but as I have said for much of the offseason, I absolutely do believe 2018 is going to be an entertaining ride.
Part Myself & I
Without further ado….
ME
As is usually the case in this concept, MYSELF has an unfair advantage in this debate; in this town, negative outlooks rise to the front page like a hot air balloon on a day without gravity. Furthermore, it is only human nature to ignore status quo from a year ago…we want new reasons for enthusiasm…Zeke, Dak, Tank and that offensive line are old news and very little added over the course of the offseason is equipped to inspire the brand of confidence we fans demand.
Granted, there’s the return and rise up the depth chart of one Randall Gregory, but he’s a poor decision away from a lifetime band…so I completely understand if the Cowboys fanbase is treating his situation with crossed-fingers, rabbits foot and horse shoes.
Sean Lee is healthy…but for how long?
Connor Williams figures to be the new starting Left Guard, but most agree it’s going to take a year and an offseason before we can chisel his likeness next to the others looking out from the Great Wall of Dallas (Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, La’el Collins, Travis Frederick).
Dorance Armstrong (drafted in the fourth round this year) was a pleasant surprise in training camp/preseason in a draft class that was otherwise underwhelming and looks to be the first-line backup to Gregory, but even 1st round pick defensive ends typically max out at around 5 sacks for the first season.
Tavon Austin and Deonte Thompson seem to add a much needed speed element to this offense, but at the same time, we were able to snag Tavon for a 6th round pick for a good reason and despite being cut to allow the Cowboys to move Noah Brown to IR, as far as we know, no one was banging down Deonte’s door to sign him before the Cowboys could, which is another way of saying 31 other teams liked their worst receiver on their 53 man roster better than Deonte…which should give you a pretty good idea of his nationally perceived value.
While I am admittedly giddy about the potential ascension of the above-discussed players, they are by no means doing the heavy-lifting for my optimism. My confidence hinges on three parts to what I believe to be the overarching big picture: overall team youth, the nationally and locally parroted doubt despite contrary trending analytics, and the Cowboys ability to control the clock through their elite ground & pound offense and shut down the oppositions run game in return.
Since the birth of football in our great nation, there have been plenty of examples of players who played well into their 30’s and continued to play great with very little to no slip in performance. But if you were to divide that count of players by the number of players who have played the game period, you are most likely looking at a very small percentage overall. Furthermore, if you were to ask those players who continued to play great into their 30’s, they would more than likely admit they had to figure out new techniques and rely more on their instincts as opposed to athleticism to compete with the younger players.
It’s not rocket science. Younger teams tend to play better late in games as well as down the stretch of seasons. They are less susceptible to injury. They typically are faster from top to bottom. And, of course, lady luck is a cougar…she loves her some young men.
Of the Cowboys 53 players that made the team this past weekend, only 2 are over 30: Sean “Snake” Lee (32) and L.P. Ladouceur (37). The Cowboys average age is presently 25.4, however, this number will fluctuate slightly over the next few weeks as the roster takes its final shape.
Over the offseason, recency-bias became one of my new favorite things that smart people say. If you look at the various predictions made by the so-called “experts,” you may notice they tend to predict the same teams that were in the playoffs the previous year will be in the playoffs the following year, which leads to teams on the outside looking in from a year before being discounted and ignored, despite potentially missing the playoffs due to extenuating circumstances (such as dealing with injuries and/or suspensions to major contributors). Historically, making predictions in this manner means you will be right more than you are wrong…but make no mistake, on a few teams (maybe more), you will be wrong because to my knowledge, the same collection of teams repeating in the playoffs back-to-back never happens. And don’t fact check me, because if it has happened, it is still exceptionally rare.
The parity in this league provides razor thin differences between teams that actually made it into the playoffs and the teams that just missed the cut, therefore with all the changes that tend to occur over the course of an offseason, teams swapping places in the pecking order is commonplace. It’s the natural order of things here in the NFL and what separates football from every single sport in our great nation.
By Cowboys nation’s standards, last year was a terrible year…and yet, they still finished 9 & 7. But given that win/loss ratio, and considering that aforementioned parity, not much separates the Cowboys from every team that did in fact make it to the playoffs last year, including the Super Bowl winning Eagles.
Consider: How many losses last year could have been avoided last season if it were not for one fateful play late in games. The Packers won by 4. The Rams won by 5. Had the Cowboys won even one of those, they would have most likely been in the playoffs and how we collectively define last season would have completely changed. Sure, we most likely would still be disappointed, but the lens through which we view last season would be far more complimentary. What if Zeke hadn’t been suspended for 6 games? Do you think we still miss the playoffs? On that point, I’m not certain, but I lean towards believing it would have completely changed what otherwise became a Nightmare November.
Nevertheless, the current trend for the Cowboys that has been in place since 2011 is that the Cowboys are good one year and bad the next. If you consider last year to have been bad, it stands to reason that they will most likely be good in 2018….particularly considering the level of national and local doubt that is being levied on the Cowboys going into the season. Doubt for the Cowboys is the soil they tend to flourish in.
Throughout this past offseason I preached that the Cowboys ultimate focus should be on acquiring talent for the defense that is adept at shutting down the oppositions run. Granted, you still want to be able to shut down the pass…I’m not advocating ignoring that aspect of the game. However, since the Cowboys run a ball control offense that prefers to use the ground game to control the clock, wear down the opposing defense, and keep the oppositions offense on the sideline and out of rhythm, it stands to reason that complementing that style of offense would be a defense that can shut down the opposing offenses ground game in return.
See the Rams game from last year in particular for what I’m talking about. In the first half of that game, the Cowboys dominated the Rams on both sides of the ball. However, in the second half, Todd Gurley started finding space after Sean Lee was injured. The Rams were able to nullify the Cowboys ball control offense by simply controlling the ball on offense themselves. At that point, the contest became anybody’s game and the Rams capitalized with the comeback win.
When the Cowboys drafted Leighton Vander Esch, I was very much against it, and the above is a big reason why. I saw him as more adept in coverage than a run-stopper. Granted, eventually he will get better in this area, however, this season I believed he would be slow to react and thus allow the action to come to him, in much the same way Jaylon did last year. At the time, I thought the Cowboys were looking at Leighton as their new stating Middle Linebacker and they would slide (the disappointing up to that point) Jaylon over to strongside linebacker, where he would mostly see the field in obvious run situations.
Over the course of training camp and preseason, Jaylon disabused me of my false notions regarding his abilities as a player. I did not miss all the noise regarding him having a great offseason; I just had adopted an “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach, in consideration of that same narrative following him into last year.
Jaylon, paired with Sean, and a front 7 that added 3 surprise players in Randall Gregory, Antwuan Woods, and Dorance Armstrong could be absolutely stifling against the opposition’s attempts to match the Cowboys ground game. And if the oppositions offense fails to contest (or at least keep stride with) the Cowboys ability to control the ball through the ground game, the Cowboys most likely win. It really is that simple.
So again, if you ignore all the negative noise that surrounds the boys in blue, and just look at the big picture, the Cowboys are set up remarkably well to be sneaky good this year. They don’t have the marquee receiver or tight end anymore. Their offensive line will likely display a noticeable limp without their bearded-ambassador-of-badassitude Travis Frederick. But, in the end, the Cowboys overall youth teamed with nationwide underestimation and an elite ground game complemented by a defense that manufactures a plethora of 3rd and longs will contribute to a marked improvement over 2017. I refuse to make predictions beyond the regular season, but as I have said for much of the offseason, I absolutely do believe 2018 is going to be an entertaining ride.
Part Myself & I
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