chicago JK
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https://theringer.com/2017-nfl-draft-biggest-misses-scouts-executives-9b7afdd89a7e
Unless something bizarre happens next Thursday, Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett will become the 16th defensive player in the past 50 years to go first overall. Statistically speaking, though, there’s about a 50–50 shot that he won’t live up to the hype. Among his 15 predecessors dating back to 1967, just seven went on to make the Pro Bowl, which is a relatively low bar for a player who’s expected to be the best pro in his class. In fact, for any player chosen in the first round, the odds aren’t much better that he’ll even end up as a starter for the team that selects him.
To understate it, scouting college prospects for the NFL is hard, and evaluators get things wrong all the time. Surefire stars flame out, mid-round draft picks become All-World quarterbacks, and some players just end up in the wrong situation and never recover. So, in order to get a better idea of the challenges and conundrums that evaluators encounter, I asked a handful of them about the players they’ve missed on — and about why so many prospects don’t work out.
Unless something bizarre happens next Thursday, Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett will become the 16th defensive player in the past 50 years to go first overall. Statistically speaking, though, there’s about a 50–50 shot that he won’t live up to the hype. Among his 15 predecessors dating back to 1967, just seven went on to make the Pro Bowl, which is a relatively low bar for a player who’s expected to be the best pro in his class. In fact, for any player chosen in the first round, the odds aren’t much better that he’ll even end up as a starter for the team that selects him.
To understate it, scouting college prospects for the NFL is hard, and evaluators get things wrong all the time. Surefire stars flame out, mid-round draft picks become All-World quarterbacks, and some players just end up in the wrong situation and never recover. So, in order to get a better idea of the challenges and conundrums that evaluators encounter, I asked a handful of them about the players they’ve missed on — and about why so many prospects don’t work out.
