Rival Blowouts

[DCBlueStar]

Every year I like to have a bit of fun by tracking the NFC East and charting how they do +/- with their scoring differentials vs like opponents.

It comes from a natural curiosity of how it’s always “You haven’t played anyone yet!” when most NFCE fans are too fickle to understand that we all play 85.71% of the same games that our rivals do (outside of playing themselves 2x a year).

So over time I’ve tinkered with different ways to measure the quality of our wins and found the best way was to compare like matchups to our foes.

However, I do think there is another way to judge potential.

As I said before, I get curious. I love learning about odd facts regarding the NFL. And what I discover, I enjoy sharing.

——-

According to my research via Pro Football Reference data... there have been 4044 rivalry games played between 1999-2018.

Of those 4044 games, 3053 of them were within 8 points (one score) or less.

That's 75.5%...

The Cowboys have won twice this year. winning by more than one score, vs NFCE opponents (+18, +10).

That’s wildly encouraging, to say the least. If they do it even once more, they’d be in rare territory. They have 6 games left to try it in.

 

[Hot_Toddy]

Great research and post.

So we are winning by an average of 2 TD against NFCE opponents this year.

Our first two games vs NFCE opponents last year were both losses. And we only beat one NFCE opponent last year by more than 1 TD (8 points).

I'll take this upgrade!

 

[cowboy_ron]

Every year I like to have a bit of fun by tracking the NFC East and charting how they do +/- with their scoring differentials vs like opponents.

It comes from a natural curiosity of how it’s always “You haven’t played anyone yet!” when most NFCE fans are too fickle to understand that we all play 85.71% of the same games that our rivals do (outside of playing themselves 2x a year).

So over time I’ve tinkered with different ways to measure the quality of our wins and found the best way was to compare like matchups to our foes.

However, I do think there is another way to judge potential.

As I said before, I get curious. I love learning about odd facts regarding the NFL. And what I discover, I enjoy sharing.

——-

According to my research via Pro Football Reference data... there have been 4044 rivalry games played between 1999-2018.

Of those 4044 games, 3053 of them were within 8 points (one score) or less.

That's 75.5%...

The Cowboys have won twice this year. winning by more than one score, vs NFCE opponents (+18, +10).

That’s wildly encouraging, to say the least. If they do it even once more, they’d be in rare territory. They have 6 games left to try it in.

I have always admired your analysis on different things DC....your posts are always a good read.

 

[xwalker]

Every year I like to have a bit of fun by tracking the NFC East and charting how they do +/- with their scoring differentials vs like opponents.

It comes from a natural curiosity of how it’s always “You haven’t played anyone yet!” when most NFCE fans are too fickle to understand that we all play 85.71% of the same games that our rivals do (outside of playing themselves 2x a year).

So over time I’ve tinkered with different ways to measure the quality of our wins and found the best way was to compare like matchups to our foes.

However, I do think there is another way to judge potential.

As I said before, I get curious. I love learning about odd facts regarding the NFL. And what I discover, I enjoy sharing.

——-

According to my research via Pro Football Reference data... there have been 4044 rivalry games played between 1999-2018.

Of those 4044 games, 3053 of them were within 8 points (one score) or less.

That's 75.5%...

The Cowboys have won twice this year. winning by more than one score, vs NFCE opponents (+18, +10).

That’s wildly encouraging, to say the least. If they do it even once more, they’d be in rare territory. They have 6 games left to try it in.

Something appears to be off with those numbers.

You indicated: 3053 games with a points differential of 8 or less from 1999 to 2018 of "rivalry games".

By my queries of ALL NFL regular season games from 1999 to 2018:
Points Diff Less than or equal 8: 2546 (49.96% of total)
Points Diff Greater than 8: 2550
Total: 5096

Note:
31 teams from 1999 to 2011 with 248 total games/season.
32 teams from 2002 to 2018 with 256 games/season
3*248 + 17*256 = 5096

#games......Point Diff
9 ................ 0
204 ............ 1
193 ............ 2
783 ............ 3
247 ............ 4
166 ............ 5
286 ............ 6
478 ............ 7
180 ............ 8
82 .............. 9
295 ............ 10
127 ............ 11
80 .............. 12
156 ............ 13
247 ............ 14
785 ............ >14, <=21
687 ............ >21, <=35
91 .............. >35

 

[xwalker]

It comes from a natural curiosity of how it’s always “You haven’t played anyone yet!” when most NFCE fans are too fickle to understand that we all play 85.71% of the same games that our rivals do (outside of playing themselves 2x a year).

The NFC East teams each played 8 common opponents in 2018 not including each other.

That 50% for common opponents not including opponents not in the division.

From 2018 sorted with the 8 common opponents at the top of each list:

Cowboys
Opp
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders
Detroit Lions
Seattle Seahawks

Giants
Opp
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans
New Orleans Saints
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders
Chicago Bears
San Francisco 49ers

Eagles
Opp
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans
New Orleans Saints
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
New York Giants
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders
Minnesota Vikings
Los Angeles Rams

Skins
Opp
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans
New Orleans Saints
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay Packers
Arizona Cardinals

Points Diff in the 8 common opponent games:
21 of 32 with 8 points of less differential (65.625%).
Cowboys
3
8
3
23
33
7
14
3

Giants
3
2
5
1
5
3
17
15

Eagles
6
4
2
4
6
6
3
41

Skins
24
6
2
12
3
13
9
24

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

What qualifies as a ‘rivalry game’? Can’t be just a game against a divisional opponent since we only have 4 left. (You suggest we have 6 left.)

 

[DCBlueStar]

I’ll be honest, not sure what happened with the data. Must’ve been when I was under the influence of migraine meds. When I get back home I’ll check on my computer to see if I can figure out what messed up. I had to post on my cell the other day and don’t even remember doing it.

 

[DCBlueStar]

What qualifies as a ‘rivalry game’? Can’t be just a game against a divisional opponent since we only have 4 left. (You suggest we have 6 left.)

Yeah IDK there was a goof there. “Official” rivalries. Within the division. Would have to account for the league expansion and pre-realignment divisional opponents.