Rob Ryan's defenses-- a statistical look...

[silverbear]

As many of you probably know by now, I am not as thrilled by the prospect of Rob Ryan as a defensive coordinator as the majority of the media, and this board are... when I have asked why you guys are so high on this potential hire, the responses are generally that they like his fire, and that he plays an "attacking defense"...

Well, "fire" doesn't impress me all that much, some of the greatest coaches I've ever seen were icy, even stoic on the sidelines... but perhaps this defense could use a bit of attitude...

But as for "attacking defenses", I think we can all agree that we'd like some of that in Dallas... when I think of attacking defenses, I think of lots of sacks, and lots of turnovers... I think of forcing the opposing offense into mistakes... so if Ryan brings an attacking defense, I'd be all for it...

I'm sorry, though, his reputation does not square with the statistical facts... Rob has been a defensive coordinator for 7 years now, 5 with the Raiders and 2 with the Browns... in that time, his teams have put up 223 sacks (in 112 games), and average of just barely under 2 a game... meanwhile, the Cowboys defense that we criticize as being too passive has put up 286 sacks in the same time, 53 more, for an average of nearly 2.6 sacks per game...

As for turnovers, his teams the last 7 years have had 85 interceptions and 62 fumble recoveries, for a total of 147 turnovers forced-- 21 turnovers per season... in the same time, the Boys have had 104 interceptions and 77 fumble recoveries, for a total of 181 turnovers forced-- just under 26 turnovers a year...

So, Ryan's "aggressive" defenses have averaged fewer sacks per game, and fewer turnovers per season, than our "passive" defense that has us all so irritated (and don't get me wrong, I'm not saying our defense was aggressive, I'm saying that Rob's most certainly weren't)...

So tell me, where's this aggressive defense y'all are talking about?? Seems to me that you're arguing basically that "if you give Rob our talent, he can put together a killer defense", but to me there's a lot of suppositions and precious little concrete facts in that argument...

 

[ZBTHorton]

I think a lot of the support also comes from the fact that we didn't see a whole lot of other options out there.

When I look at our defense, other than Safety, I still think we're a fairly talented team. I refuse to believe that Jenkins simply stopped being able to play. I refuse to believe that Spencer fell off the face of the earth last year. I think there problems lie almost as much in motivation as they do in scheme. Do I wish this wasn't the case? Of course. But we have to play the cards we are dealt, and some people on our team have lost focus in the past year.

Therefore, I think Ryan at least has potential. Something many of the other "boring" DC candidates out there don't have nearly as much of.

 

[RoyTheHammer]

Nice post silver.

Lot of assumptions and speculation out there for sure about what Rob "could" do with a more talented team.

The fact is he's had marginal talent to work with in his career. If he does come here, and doesn't help this D succeed, im pretty sure this will be the end of his career. Certainly, if he can't succeed here, the talk of him being considered for a HC position (which is largely based around things he himself says) will fade away.

That being said, i think there's a chance he can succeed here. He can definately confuse offenses, knows how to make adjustments, and if the only thing he can get this D to do is play with more fire and intensity.. then that alone would be something i haven't seen out of a Dallas Cowboys defense in far too long.

There are some positives and negatives about the guy for sure though.

 

[rkell87]

i hold nothing against anyone involved with the raiders since '03

 

[ajk23az]

There is also a little saying that goes somewhat like, "stats don't tell the whole truth".

 

[RoyTheHammer]

There is also a little saying that goes somewhat like, "stats don't tell the whole truth".

There's also a saying that says "the stats don't lie".

Just sayin..

 

[ajk23az]

There's also a saying that says "the stats don't lie".

Just sayin..

True. And the only way to find out is time.

 

[CanuckCowboysFan]

who cares about the past? I mean really. You're judge on what you do NOW.

By that logic, Wade Phillips should still be this teams coordinator. After all, in 2009 we had the 3rd best defense in the league, right?

THIS, I repeat THIS season, Cleveland had 28 turnovers. Dallas had 30. Oh, and Cleveland's best player is TJ ward. And nobody quote this saying Joe Haden.

RDE - Kenyon Coleman
NT - Ahtyba Rubin
LDE - Brian Schaefering

OLB - Matt Roth
MLB - Eric Barton
MLB - Chris Gocong
OLB - David Bowens

CB - Joe Haden
CB - Sheldon Brown

SS - Abram Elam
FS - TJ Ward

WHAT A TALENTED DEFENSE!!!!!! The fact that, that defense had 2 less turnovers then Dallas THIS year is truly sad. So tell me, what can Dom Capers, Mike Nolan, Dennis Thurman, Rex Ryan, or Dick Lebeau do with that amazingly talented defense? Just look at all the pro bowlers.
:laugh2:

Out of curiosity, who would you prefer be DC, out of whats available?

 

[RoyTheHammer]

who cares about the past? I mean really. You're judge on what you do NOW.

By that logic, Wade Phillips should still be this teams coordinator. After all, in 2009 we had the 3rd best defense in the league, right?

THIS, I repeat THIS season, Cleveland had 28 turnovers. Dallas had 30. Oh, and Cleveland's best player is TJ ward. And nobody quote this saying Joe Haden.

RDE - Kenyon Coleman
NT - Ahtyba Rubin
LDE - Brian Schaefering

OLB - Matt Roth
MLB - Eric Barton
MLB - Chris Gocong
OLB - David Bowens

CB - Joe Haden
CB - Sheldon Brown

SS - Abram Elam
FS - TJ Ward

WHAT A TALENTED DEFENSE!!!!!! The fact that, that defense had 2 less turnovers then Dallas THIS year is truly sad. So tell me, what can Dom Capers, Mike Nolan, Dennis Thurman, Rex Ryan, or Dick Lebeau do with that amazingly talented defense? Just look at all the pro bowlers.
:laugh2:

Out of curiosity, who would you prefer be DC, out of whats available?

That's not a very bad group of LB's or DB's there to be honest.

..and Rubin was an absolutely beast this year, pro bowl level.

 

[dadymat]

There's also a saying that says "the stats don't lie".

Just sayin..

unless those stats involve Tony Romo huh?

 

[RoyTheHammer]

True. And the only way to find out is time.

I agree. As i said, i don't think there's any doubt this D has talent. His chance to make a name for himself in the NFL is now (if we hire him).

 

[rkell87]

joe haden




hey i didnt quote it

 

[RoyTheHammer]

unless those stats involve Tony Romo huh?

Not sure what you mean.. but the stats don't lie about Romo, imo.

 

[rkell87]

Not sure what you mean.. but the stats don't lie about Romo, imo.

he means that stats lie about romo, or thats what people claim

 

[CanuckCowboysFan]

That's not a very bad group of LB's or DB's there to be honest.

..and Rubin was an absolutely beast this year, pro bowl level.

LOL. You're kidding, right? That has to be one of the worst linebacking cores in the NFL. And Sheldon Brown is absolutely ATROCIOUS, Elam is HORRIBLE.

Rubin was a beast. How much of that is credited to Ryan or Cox? I'd like to see what he does without them.

 

[7footer]

I've been keeping quiet on the Ryan rumor, partly because it isn't official yet, and parley because I just don't know what to think.

Yes, he comes from a defensive-minded pedigree and is known for his aggressive defenses. However, his tenure in Oakland and Cleveland haven't produced dominant defenses by any stretch of the imagination. Yes, it's Oakland and Cleveland we're talking about and I'm really trying to factor that into the expectations, but I still think he's more than a bit unproven as of yet.

I guess the bottom line for me is that I would be generally happy with the signing, because he sure as shoot beats having Paul P. Also, I've been yearning for the day when our corners stopped allowing 10-yard cushions on the receivers just to prevent getting beat deep, and from everything I know about Ryan, I believe his schemes will be much more physical and agressive.

I think he has the potential to turn our defense into a formidable unit, but his stats at his previous teams haven't yet reflected that. Maybe with the right personnel (which we are loaded with compared to Oak and Cle) he can live up to all the hype, but we just don't have any real proof of that yet. Anyway, here's hoping that Ryan is everything we hope for, and that maybe his hire could also facilitate a Nnamdi signing as well ;-)

 

[RoyTheHammer]

LOL. You're kidding, right? That has to be one of the worst linebacking cores in the NFL. And Sheldon Brown is absolutely ATROCIOUS, Elam is HORRIBLE.

Rubin was a beast. How much of that is credited to Ryan or Cox? I'd like to see what he does without them.

Roth is a guy i'd love to see on this team.

TJ Ward and Haden both had very good seasons for Cleveland and Sheldon Brown was always solid at CB for the Eagles.

Barton has 5 years with 100 or more tackles.

Its just a team of tough, solid guys. Gocong, Elam, Roth, Rubin.. Mangini loved all these guys, and for good reason.

I agree you have to credit what Rubin has done to Ryan (and Mangini), but with his high motor and will to succeed, i think he'll do just fine under the new regime in Cleveland.

 

[silverbear]

The total defense rankings of the 7 teams for which Rob Ryan has been a defensive coordinator:

2004 Raiders-- 30th
2005 Raiders-- 27th
2006 Raiders-- 3rd
2007 Raiders-- 22nd
2208 Raiders-- 27th
2009 Browns-- 31st
2010 Browns-- 22nd

So, in 7 years as a defensive coordinator, he's had one team that even cracked the top 20 in total defense... that 2006 season was semi-impressive, but loses some luster when the Raiders dropped back to ineptitude the following season...

And now, the points per game allowed rankings for those teams:

2004-- 31st
2005-- 25th
2006-- 18th
2007-- 26th
2008-- 24th
2009-- tied 21st
2010-- 13th

That's 7 years, and not one of those teams even finished in the league's top 12...

Next, the rush defense numbers for those 7 seasons... you might want to chug some Mylanta before reading this:

2004-- 22nd
2005-- 25th
2006-- 25th
2007-- 31st
2008-- 31st
2009-- 28th
2010-- 27th

Friends, that's AWFUL... bluntly put, opposing offenses have always been able to run pretty much at will on a Rob Ryan defense... which is why in his 7 years as a defensive coordinator, teams have run the ball 3625 times (32.3 times per game), while passing it only 3349 times (29.7 times per game)...

In the modern NFL, you expect a 55 per cent pass, 45 per cent run mix, that's considered "balanced"... but with Rob, you get 55 per cent run, 45 per cent pass... so all you Rob fans, don't come griping to me if you look up at midseason to see that opponents are averaging 30 carries a game against us...

Now, we come to the passing stats... these will be a little kinder to him:

2004-- 30th
2005-- 18th
2006-- 1st
2007-- 8th
2008-- 10th
2009-- 29th
2010-- 18th

OK, the meat of those numbers is the 2006-2008 span, when his Raiders' defense were 1st, 8th and 10th in pass defense... that's the strongest part of his resume as a defensive coordinator to date, but even those stats need to be examined a little more deeply...

The 06 defense was a good one, no doubt about it... they also ranked 3rd in what I consider to be the most important pass defense, yards per attempt... but at the same time, opponents only threw the ball 410 times that season, versus 542 runs... you're not gonna put up big passing yardage throwing it just over 25 times a game, but why throw it if you can run it successfully 35 times a game??

The 07 and 08 defenses look good on paper, but they fall short in my favorite pass defense stat, YPA... in 07, they were 29th in the league at 7.6 YPA, in 08 they were 22nd at 7.7... and again, opponents ran the ball 1028 times versus 910 passes in those two seasons...

Just the facts, make of them what you will...

 

[silverbear]

2004 Raiders-- C minus... though they ranked 30th in total defense, 31st in scoring defense, 22nd in rush defense and 30th in pass defense, I have to grade on a curve, because Rob walked into a bad situation... I would have given him a D for this year, but I recognize that I am biased against him, so I figure this argument will be stronger if I grade generously...

2005 Raiders-- D ... 27th total defense, 25th scoring defense, 25th rush defense and 18th pass defense... the pass defense stat keeps him from getting an F here...

2006 Raiders-- A minus... 3rd total defense, 18th scoring defense, 25th rush defense, 1st pass defense... the scoring defense and rush defense stats keep me from giving him an A here...

2007 Raiders-- D plus... when you go from 3rd in total defense to 22nd the next season, you have not done a good job, period... but the pass defense ranking makes it a D plus rather than a D...

2008 Raiders-- D... two years after putting together the 3rd best defense in the league, this one was 27th (and 31st in rush defense)... again, ranking in the top 10 in pass defense bumps his grade up a little...

2009 Browns-- D... again, he walked into a kitchen with a bare cupboard, but his defense was still pathetic...

2010 Browns-- C... only the scoring defense numbers are decent, but once again, we're talking about the Browns here... finishing 22nd in total defense and 18th in pass defense is respectable with that motley crew...

And if I sum it all up, I'd give him a C minus for his seven years of work... sorry, that's not good enough for me as a Cowboys fan, I want better...

 

[Cowboys&LakersFan]

There's also a saying that says "the stats don't lie".

Just sayin..

Which is not true, stats definitely lie sometimes.