percyhoward
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While doing research on how passer ratings go down in garbage time, I noticed an addition to PFR's game play finder that I hadn't explored, that breaks down every pass in the NFL by target distance (how far the ball traveled in the air). Passer rating is still the individual stat with the highest correlation to wins, despite criticisms of the stat. One of these is that it rewards dink-and-dunk passes that involve little risk on the part of the QB. Pass rating makes no distinction between a pass caught at the line of scrimmage with 20 yards gained after the catch, and a pass caught 20 yards beyond the LOS with 0 yards gained after the catch.
ESPN's "total QBR" does address this issue, but then dilutes the results by making it situation-dependent and adding in subjective elements like who to blame for interceptions, etc. I wanted to see a comparison of QB efficiency based on target distance only, without all that other noise.
PFR divides all pass attempts into either "short" or "deep." Based on a look at the individual plays, "short" refers to throws that went no more than 15 yards in the air. Since 2006, here is the pass rating on those attempts, compared to the rating on all other (longer) attempts:
Pass thrown 15 yards or less, 2006-14
118,643 att 79,430 comp 67.0% 729,225 yd 4,317 td 2,252 int 6.1 ypa 87.7
Pass thrown more than 15 yards, 2006-14
27,832 att 11,234 comp 40.4% 316, 594 yd 1,993 td 1,875 int 11.4 ypa 78.9
Pass rating drops 8.8 points on the longer throws. Predictably, completion percentage goes way down, but yards per attempt goes way up. Because the longer throws account for only 18.5 % of all attempts -- and because another 0.5% are throwaways, spikes, or batted balls that kill the rating -- the average passer rating since 2006 is 84.2, and much of that (81%) comes from these shorter throws that barely manage 6 yards per attempt. So which players' ratings have benefited the most by these shorter throws?
Pass thrown 15 yards or less, 2006-14
active player, min 800 att
1 Rodgers (1) 106.8
2 Peyton (2) 104.1
3 Brady (3) 102.2
4 Wilson (5) 100.1
5 Rivers (6) 99.3
6 Brees (4) 97.8
7 Roethlisberger (8) 97.4
8 Romo (7) 95.4
9 Ryan (10) 95.0
10 Schaub (11) 91.4
Basically, we're talking about 4 out of every 5 passes thrown in the NFL. So the guys we've been used to seeing at the top in passer rating over the last nine seasons will naturally appear on that list. Their ranking in passer rating on all passes is in parentheses. Some players move up slightly, Brees and Romo are the only ones who move down, but they're both still top 8, and there isn't a whole lot of movement either way.
Now let's flip it over, and look at all the other pass attempts -- the ones thrown more than 15 yards.
Pass thrown more than 15 yards, 2006-14
active player, min 200 att
1 Romo (7) 110.2
2 Brees (4) 109.9
3 Rodgers (1) 109.6
4 Wilson (5) 104.8
5 Brady (3) 99.2
6 Rivers (6) 98.9
7 Peyton (2) 98.7
8 Schaub (11) 94.7
9 Dalton (17) 89.4
10 Kaepernick (9) 88.0
Much more movement here, which is to be expected with the smaller sample. It's the number in parentheses that is the most important as it relates to winning, and passer rating slightly favors shorter passes. So you want a QB who can do both well, but if he doesn't do both well (see Dalton), you'll win more games with a QB who rates higher on the shorter passes than the longer ones in normal game situations.
But it struck me that a player who is known in some circles as a compiler of stats, hasn't benefited at all in an area that the stats favor, and actually has been better than everybody else in an area that the stats don't reward as much.
If you're wondering, Romo hasn't benefited from longer throws in garbage time either. Trailing by 20+ in the 2nd half, his rating drops exactly 20 points on these passes. Brees' drops less than 7 points.
@Sturm1310
ESPN's "total QBR" does address this issue, but then dilutes the results by making it situation-dependent and adding in subjective elements like who to blame for interceptions, etc. I wanted to see a comparison of QB efficiency based on target distance only, without all that other noise.
PFR divides all pass attempts into either "short" or "deep." Based on a look at the individual plays, "short" refers to throws that went no more than 15 yards in the air. Since 2006, here is the pass rating on those attempts, compared to the rating on all other (longer) attempts:
Pass thrown 15 yards or less, 2006-14
118,643 att 79,430 comp 67.0% 729,225 yd 4,317 td 2,252 int 6.1 ypa 87.7
Pass thrown more than 15 yards, 2006-14
27,832 att 11,234 comp 40.4% 316, 594 yd 1,993 td 1,875 int 11.4 ypa 78.9
Pass rating drops 8.8 points on the longer throws. Predictably, completion percentage goes way down, but yards per attempt goes way up. Because the longer throws account for only 18.5 % of all attempts -- and because another 0.5% are throwaways, spikes, or batted balls that kill the rating -- the average passer rating since 2006 is 84.2, and much of that (81%) comes from these shorter throws that barely manage 6 yards per attempt. So which players' ratings have benefited the most by these shorter throws?
Pass thrown 15 yards or less, 2006-14
active player, min 800 att
1 Rodgers (1) 106.8
2 Peyton (2) 104.1
3 Brady (3) 102.2
4 Wilson (5) 100.1
5 Rivers (6) 99.3
6 Brees (4) 97.8
7 Roethlisberger (8) 97.4
8 Romo (7) 95.4
9 Ryan (10) 95.0
10 Schaub (11) 91.4
Basically, we're talking about 4 out of every 5 passes thrown in the NFL. So the guys we've been used to seeing at the top in passer rating over the last nine seasons will naturally appear on that list. Their ranking in passer rating on all passes is in parentheses. Some players move up slightly, Brees and Romo are the only ones who move down, but they're both still top 8, and there isn't a whole lot of movement either way.
Now let's flip it over, and look at all the other pass attempts -- the ones thrown more than 15 yards.
Pass thrown more than 15 yards, 2006-14
active player, min 200 att
1 Romo (7) 110.2
2 Brees (4) 109.9
3 Rodgers (1) 109.6
4 Wilson (5) 104.8
5 Brady (3) 99.2
6 Rivers (6) 98.9
7 Peyton (2) 98.7
8 Schaub (11) 94.7
9 Dalton (17) 89.4
10 Kaepernick (9) 88.0
Much more movement here, which is to be expected with the smaller sample. It's the number in parentheses that is the most important as it relates to winning, and passer rating slightly favors shorter passes. So you want a QB who can do both well, but if he doesn't do both well (see Dalton), you'll win more games with a QB who rates higher on the shorter passes than the longer ones in normal game situations.
But it struck me that a player who is known in some circles as a compiler of stats, hasn't benefited at all in an area that the stats favor, and actually has been better than everybody else in an area that the stats don't reward as much.
If you're wondering, Romo hasn't benefited from longer throws in garbage time either. Trailing by 20+ in the 2nd half, his rating drops exactly 20 points on these passes. Brees' drops less than 7 points.
@Sturm1310
