Romo's 3rd Down Targets (updated thru 10 games)

percyhoward

percyhoward

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Ranked by total first downs. (conversion percentage)

Romo's conversion percentage includes sacks.

Romo 57 of 79 742 yd 7 td 1 int 46 fd 125.6 (51%)

Witten 15 of 19 145 yd 2 td 0 int 13 fd 133.6 (68%)
Bryant 14 of 20 225 yd 2 td 1 int 12 fd 119.8 (60%)
Beasley 6 of 8 51 yd 0 td 0 int 6 fd 91.1 (75%)
Escobar 5 of 5 62 yd 2 td 0 int 5 fd 157.9 (100%)
Williams 4 of 10 73 yd 1 td 0 int 4 fd 99.2 (40%)
Dunbar 5 of 6 52 yd 0 td 0 int 3 fd 102.8 (50%)
Murray 6 of 8 64 yd 0 td 0 int 2 fd 97.9 (25%)
others 2 of 3 70 yd 0 td 0 int 1 fd 109.7 (33%)
 
dstovall5

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So what you're saying is on passing 3rd downs we need to use Escobar and Dez as the outside WRs, Beasely in the slot, Dunbar in the backfield, and Witten as the TE?

I like it. :thumbup:
 
Sportsbabe

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percyhoward said:
Ranked by total first downs. (conversion percentage)

Romo's conversion percentage includes sacks.

Romo 57 of 79 742 yd 7 td 1 int 46 fd 125.6 (51%)

Witten 15 of 19 145 yd 2 td 0 int 13 fd 133.6 (68%)
Bryant 14 of 20 225 yd 2 td 1 int 12 fd 119.8 (60%)
Beasley 6 of 8 51 yd 0 td 0 int 6 fd 91.1 (75%)
Escobar 5 of 5 62 yd 2 td 0 int 5 fd 157.9 (100%)
Williams 4 of 10 73 yd 1 td 0 int 4 fd 99.2 (40%)
Dunbar 5 of 6 52 yd 0 td 0 int 3 fd 102.8 (50%)
Murray 6 of 8 64 yd 0 td 0 int 2 fd 97.9 (25%)
others 2 of 3 70 yd 0 td 0 int 1 fd 109.7 (33%)
Click to expand...

WT???:)
 
TheCount

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Crown Royal said:
Our third down offense this year is the x factor in our success, IMO
Click to expand...

It's not even an x-factor. It's the single stat most tied to winning games in the NFL. We've gone from 35% last year to 53% this year, it's kind of ridiculous actually.
 
percyhoward

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TheCount said:
It's not even an x-factor. It's the single stat most tied to winning games in the NFL.
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Not exactly. 3rd down conversion percentage has a moderate to strong correlation. Other stats (drive success rate, which is similar) have a stronger correlation. I'm tracking 3rd downs because it's easy, and because we were so bad at it last year.
 
TheCount

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percyhoward said:
Not exactly. 3rd down conversion percentage has a moderate to strong correlation. Other stats (drive success rate, which is similar) have a stronger correlation. I'm tracking 3rd downs because it's easy, and because we were so bad at it last year.
Click to expand...

It's my understanding that DSR is a compilation of multiple stats, so I wouldn't classify it as a "single stat". That's if we want to be picky, which apparently we do.
 
percyhoward

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TheCount said:
It's my understanding that DSR is a compilation of multiple stats, so I wouldn't classify it as a "single stat".
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Yeah, it's a single stat. DSR is just the percentage of down series that result in a first down. And there are several stats with higher win correlations than DSR. Points per drive and pass rating, for example.
 
CCBoy

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percyhoward said:
Yeah, it's a single stat. DSR is just the percentage of down series that result in a first down. And there are several stats with higher win correlations than DSR. Points per drive and pass rating, for example.
Click to expand...

What could become interesting, Percy, is a stat comparison between the NFL's top undrafted quarterbacks...such as Unitas and Warner, with Romo.
 
percyhoward

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CCBoy said:
What could become interesting, Percy, is a stat comparison between the NFL's top undrafted quarterbacks...such as Unitas and Warner, with Romo.
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May be worth looking into. Romo's consistency is what sets him apart from most other QB, no matter how they got into the league. Barring a total collapse, he's on his way to another top 10 season in passer rating. It would be his 8th in a row. Only six players have ever done that -- Manning, Montana, Brady, Dawson, Fouts, and Young.
 
percyhoward

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TheCount said:
Only if you consider a touchdown to be a first down. Which, again, is semantics.
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Well, no. That's what DSR is, regardless of whether you treat TD as 1st downs. But of course, it makes sense to to consider a TD as a 1st down anyway
.
If you get three first downs on a drive, and then punt, your DSR for that drive is 75% (3 of 4). If you get three first downs, and then score a TD, your DSR for that drive is 100% (4 of 4).

If you didn't consider a touchdown to be a first down, the DSR for both drives would be 75%, so that wouldn't make any sense at all.
 
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