Romo's Best (and Worst) Targets in 2014

[percyhoward]

Bryant   86 of 125 (68.8%) 1305 yd (10.52) 15 td (12.10) 5 int  (4.00) 125.8 +5.2
Escobar   9 of  13 (69.2%)  105 yd  (8.08)  4 td (30.77) 0 int  (0.00) 133.0 +2.5
Beasley  36 of  47 (76.6%)  408 yd  (8.68)  4 td  (8.51) 0 int  (0.00) 130.5 +2.0
Williams 33 of  57 (57.9%)  545 yd  (9.56)  7 td (12.28) 1 int  (1.75) 122.4 +1.5
Dunbar   16 of  20 (80.0%)  165 yd  (8.25)  0 td  (0.00) 0 int  (0.00) 101.0 -0.5
Harris    6 of  11 (54.5%)  104 yd  (9.45)  0 td  (0.00) 0 int  (0.00)  86.9 -0.7
Murray   52 of  59 (88.1%)  382 yd  (5.79)  0 td  (0.00) 0 int  (0.00)  93.6 -1.7
Witten   56 of  81 (69.1%)  608 yd  (7.50)  4 td  (4.94) 1 int  (1.23) 102.3 -2.5
others   11 of  19 (57.9%)   90 yd  (4.74)  0 td  (0.00) 2 int (20.52)  30.5 -1.3
Murray  389 of 392 (99.2%) 1845 yd  (4.71) 13 td  (3.32) 3 fum  (0.77)  94.1

If you just ranked them based on the pass rating, Escobar would top the list. I ranked them based on the effect of their targets on Romo's overall rating. Romo's season rating was 113.2, but it would have been 108.0 without Dez's targets, so +5.2 was the effect of Dez's targets on Romo's rating. Even though the ratings on Escobar's and Beasley's targets were higher than the rating on Dez's targets, those two players combined were targeted less than half as often as Dez, so their targets had less effect on the overall rating.

Bryant not only led the league in TD receptions with 16 (15 from Romo), he was also #1 in TD receptions of 20+ yards with 8. His catch rate of 53.6% on deep balls also led the league. The rating on all of his targets (including Weeden's attempts) was 121.2, which ranked 4th among players with at least 100 targets.

Just for curiosity's sake, the last entry on the list treats Murray's runs as pass targets, counting his lost fumbles on those runs as interceptions. The 94.1 rating shows how little weight is given to completion percentage in figuring pass rating.

I've been doing this for the last three years, and these ratings represent by far the smallest range from top to bottom for players who were targeted with any regularity. To put it in perspective, in 2012, we had 3 players (Ogletree, Beasley, Harris) who were targeted 104 times at a 66.7 rating, while Dez had 137 targets and a 123 rating. In 2012, the #3 receiving situation was broken because Ogletree didn't know how to play the position, and the other two weren't ready yet. As a result, Romo's rating was 90.5 for the season and people thought he was in decline, but the 104 attempts at 66.7 to those three guys was what killed his rating, which obviously hurt the offense.

There was nothing even close to that in 2014. Bryant, Witten, Williams, Beasley, and Murray all represented legitimate threats. The biggest improvement this past season was on 3rd down.

Pass Rating
3rd or 4th down, 2014 (2013)
Romo 115.3 (79.8)
Beasley 17 tgt 145.2 (120.6)
Bryant 29 tgt 113.0 (112.5)
Witten 34 tgt 109.2 (93.9)
Murray 10 tgt 99.6 (88.3)
Williams 17 tgt 58.9 (35.6)

Conversion Percentage on Pass Plays
3rd or 4th down, 2014 (2013)
Romo 49.0% (35.2%)
Beasley 17 tgt 64.7% (63.2%)
Witten 34 tgt 59.5% (38.8%)
Bryant 29 tgt 47.1% (42.9%)
Williams 17 tgt 38.9% (34.8%)
Murray 10 tgt 30.0% (28.6%)

Part of the reason for the better performance is the running game creating more manageable distances on 3rd down. The Cowboys average distance to go on 3rd down in 2014 was 7.4 yards, down from 7.8 the year before. But Dallas moved up from 23rd last year to 5th this year in conversion percentage on 3rd and 8+, which accounted for 42% of all its 3rd down pass plays. Those are situations when the run got you nothing on 1st and 2nd, and the defense knows to expect pass on 3rd.

Even with that improvement, breaking down 3rd down attempts by target, you can see that Terrance Williams (apart from his signature catch in Seattle) has yet to contribute much at all on this down. For his career, the rating on Williams' targets from Romo is 45.8 on 3rd and 4th down, and 139.7 on 1st and 2nd.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Wow, that hand off to Murray has a 99% completion rate

 

[pancakeman]

Dez is amazing. My sense is that he's often drawing double teams that open up the rest of the offense, so he's not exactly underused, but feels undertargeted sometimes. But then I look up and he has more touchdowns than anybody in the league. What a weapon.

 

[pancakeman]

Harris definitely started to seem more dispensable in both returner and WR duties this season.

 

[SHAMSzy]

Williams slacking..

Beasley is a monster

 

[johnson2]

catch rate of 53.6% on deep balls

do you have this for every year? id love to see his ratings compared to calvin demarius jordy other top wr's since hes been in the league.

I saw another time it was talking about TD% in the redzone and I think he was #1 on that as well

 

[arglebargle]

Harris definitely started to seem more dispensable in both returner and WR duties this season.

Harris had a number of big plays (pass, run, and return) called back due to penalty. It was like he was cursed.

 

[xwalker]

Bryant   86 of 125 (68.8%) 1305 yd (10.52) 15 td (12.10) 5 int  (4.00) 125.8 +5.2
Escobar   9 of  13 (69.2%)  105 yd  (8.08)  4 td (30.77) 0 int  (0.00) 133.0 +2.5
Beasley  36 of  47 (76.6%)  408 yd  (8.68)  4 td  (8.51) 0 int  (0.00) 130.5 +2.0
Williams 33 of  57 (57.9%)  545 yd  (9.56)  7 td (12.28) 1 int  (1.75) 122.4 +1.5
Dunbar   16 of  20 (80.0%)  165 yd  (8.25)  0 td  (0.00) 0 int  (0.00) 101.0 -0.5
Harris    6 of  11 (54.5%)  104 yd  (9.45)  0 td  (0.00) 0 int  (0.00)  86.9 -0.7
Murray   52 of  59 (88.1%)  382 yd  (5.79)  0 td  (0.00) 0 int  (0.00)  93.6 -1.7
Witten   56 of  81 (69.1%)  608 yd  (7.50)  4 td  (4.94) 1 int  (1.23) 102.3 -2.5
others   11 of  19 (57.9%)   90 yd  (4.74)  0 td  (0.00) 2 int (20.52)  30.5 -1.3
Murray  389 of 392 (99.2%) 1845 yd  (4.71) 13 td  (3.32) 3 fum  (0.77)  94.1

If you just ranked them based on the pass rating, Escobar would top the list. I ranked them based on the effect of their targets on Romo's overall rating. Romo's season rating was 113.2, but it would have been 108.0 without Dez's targets, so +5.2 was the effect of Dez's targets on Romo's rating. Even though the ratings on Escobar's and Beasley's targets were higher than the rating on Dez's targets, those two players combined were targeted less than half as often as Dez, so their targets had less effect on the overall rating.

Bryant not only led the league in TD receptions with 16 (15 from Romo), he was also #1 in TD receptions of 20+ yards with 8. His catch rate of 53.6% on deep balls also led the league. The rating on all of his targets (including Weeden's attempts) was 121.2, which ranked 4th among players with at least 100 targets.

Just for curiosity's sake, the last entry on the list treats Murray's runs as pass targets, counting his lost fumbles on those runs as interceptions. The 94.1 rating shows how little weight is given to completion percentage in figuring pass rating.

I've been doing this for the last three years, and these ratings represent by far the smallest range from top to bottom for players who were targeted with any regularity. To put it in perspective, in 2012, we had 3 players (Ogletree, Beasley, Harris) who were targeted 104 times at a 66.7 rating, while Dez had 137 targets and a 123 rating. In 2012, the #3 receiving situation was broken because Ogletree didn't know how to play the position, and the other two weren't ready yet. As a result, Romo's rating was 90.5 for the season and people thought he was in decline, but the 104 attempts at 66.7 to those three guys was what killed his rating, which obviously hurt the offense.

There was nothing even close to that in 2014. Bryant, Witten, Williams, Beasley, and Murray all represented legitimate threats. The biggest improvement this past season was on 3rd down.

Pass Rating
3rd or 4th down, 2014 (2013)
Romo 115.3 (79.8)
Beasley 17 tgt 145.2 (120.6)
Bryant 29 tgt 113.0 (112.5)
Witten 34 tgt 109.2 (93.9)
Murray 10 tgt 99.6 (88.3)
Williams 17 tgt 58.9 (35.6)

Conversion Percentage on Pass Plays
3rd or 4th down, 2014 (2013)
Romo 49.0% (35.2%)
Beasley 17 tgt 64.7% (63.2%)
Witten 34 tgt 59.5% (38.8%)
Bryant 29 tgt 47.1% (42.9%)
Williams 17 tgt 38.9% (34.8%)
Murray 10 tgt 30.0% (28.6%)

Part of the reason for the better performance is the running game creating more manageable distances on 3rd down. The Cowboys average distance to go on 3rd down in 2014 was 7.4 yards, down from 7.8 the year before. But Dallas moved up from 23rd last year to 5th this year in conversion percentage on 3rd and 8+, which accounted for 42% of all its 3rd down pass plays. Those are situations when the run got you nothing on 1st and 2nd, and the defense knows to expect pass on 3rd.

Even with that improvement, breaking down 3rd down attempts by target, you can see that Terrance Williams (apart from his signature catch in Seattle) has yet to contribute much at all on this down. For his career, the rating on Williams' targets from Romo is 45.8 on 3rd and 4th down, and 139.7 on 1st and 2nd.

Any comparison of Beasley to Williams is somewhat apples-to-oranges. The type of routes that Beasley runs should result in high completion percentages. Romo only throws to him if he is truly open. Williams runs a lot of longer routes, was thrown contested balls and probably got covered by the #2 or #1 CB on most plays; whereas, Beasley was often covered by the #3 or #4 CB.

 

[theogt]

That guy others must suck.

 

[percyhoward]

Any comparison of Beasley to Williams is somewhat apples-to-oranges. The type of routes that Beasley runs should result in high completion percentages. Romo only throws to him if he is truly open. Williams runs a lot of longer routes, was thrown contested balls and probably got covered by the #2 or #1 CB on most plays; whereas, Beasley was often covered by the #3 or #4 CB.

Right, that's why you look at their pass ratings, which were both outstanding. The catch rate (from a QB's point of view, "completion percentage") is only a part of the pass rating, and a very minor part at that. If completion percentage/catch rate were important, that would make the backs the team's best targets, and Chad Pennington a Hall of Fame candidate. The pass ratings on the targets to Beasley (113.9) and Williams (112.2) the last two years are almost identical.

If you're talking about 3rd down only, then no, there's nothing about that down that would necessarily make the #2 WR have a rating in the 40's.

3rd Down Pass Rating
Romo to #2 WR, 2006-14
2006 Glenn 110.8
2007-08 Crayton 112.1
2009 RWilliams 46.5
2011-12 Austin 90.4
2013-14 TWilliams 45.8

 

[Alexander]

Good stuff as usual, Percy.

Thank you.

 

[percyhoward]

catch rate of 53.6% on deep balls

do you have this for every year? id love to see his ratings compared to calvin demarius jordy other top wr's since hes been in the league.

I saw another time it was talking about TD% in the redzone and I think he was #1 on that as well

That's where catch rate really does mean something, because those are all throws of 20+ yards.

btw, the OP says Dez was #1 in TD receptions "of 20+ yards" with 8. That should read "on throws of 20+ yards," as opposed to catch and run.

Catch Rate
Throws of 20+ Yards
Nelson 51 of 91 56.0%
Thomas 46 of 108 42.6%
Bryant 45 of 112 40.2%
CJohnson 67 of 187 35.8%

What hurt Dez was a horrible 2013. After not having enough targets to qualify in 2010, in 2011 he was 11th, in 2012 he was 2nd, in 2013 he was 20th, and this past year he was 1st.

 

[percyhoward]

Dez is amazing. My sense is that he's often drawing double teams that open up the rest of the offense, so he's not exactly underused, but feels undertargeted sometimes. But then I look up and he has more touchdowns than anybody in the league. What a weapon.

It's been 16 years since another WR had more TD on fewer targets than Dez had this past season. Data on targets only goes back to 1998. The only WR with more TD on fewer targets than Dez was Moss in 1998 (17 TD on 124 targets)

 

[Nightman]

Bryant   86 of 125 (68.8%) 1305 yd (10.52) 15 td (12.10) 5 int  (4.00) 125.8 +5.2
Escobar   9 of  13 (69.2%)  105 yd  (8.08)  4 td (30.77) 0 int  (0.00) 133.0 +2.5
Beasley  36 of  47 (76.6%)  408 yd  (8.68)  4 td  (8.51) 0 int  (0.00) 130.5 +2.0
Williams 33 of  57 (57.9%)  545 yd  (9.56)  7 td (12.28) 1 int  (1.75) 122.4 +1.5
Dunbar   16 of  20 (80.0%)  165 yd  (8.25)  0 td  (0.00) 0 int  (0.00) 101.0 -0.5
Harris    6 of  11 (54.5%)  104 yd  (9.45)  0 td  (0.00) 0 int  (0.00)  86.9 -0.7
Murray   52 of  59 (88.1%)  382 yd  (5.79)  0 td  (0.00) 0 int  (0.00)  93.6 -1.7
Witten   56 of  81 (69.1%)  608 yd  (7.50)  4 td  (4.94) 1 int  (1.23) 102.3 -2.5
others   11 of  19 (57.9%)   90 yd  (4.74)  0 td  (0.00) 2 int (20.52)  30.5 -1.3
Murray  389 of 392 (99.2%) 1845 yd  (4.71) 13 td  (3.32) 3 fum  (0.77)  94.1

If you just ranked them based on the pass rating, Escobar would top the list. I ranked them based on the effect of their targets on Romo's overall rating. Romo's season rating was 113.2, but it would have been 108.0 without Dez's targets, so +5.2 was the effect of Dez's targets on Romo's rating. Even though the ratings on Escobar's and Beasley's targets were higher than the rating on Dez's targets, those two players combined were targeted less than half as often as Dez, so their targets had less effect on the overall rating.

Bryant not only led the league in TD receptions with 16 (15 from Romo), he was also #1 in TD receptions of 20+ yards with 8. His catch rate of 53.6% on deep balls also led the league. The rating on all of his targets (including Weeden's attempts) was 121.2, which ranked 4th among players with at least 100 targets.

Just for curiosity's sake, the last entry on the list treats Murray's runs as pass targets, counting his lost fumbles on those runs as interceptions. The 94.1 rating shows how little weight is given to completion percentage in figuring pass rating.

I've been doing this for the last three years, and these ratings represent by far the smallest range from top to bottom for players who were targeted with any regularity. To put it in perspective, in 2012, we had 3 players (Ogletree, Beasley, Harris) who were targeted 104 times at a 66.7 rating, while Dez had 137 targets and a 123 rating. In 2012, the #3 receiving situation was broken because Ogletree didn't know how to play the position, and the other two weren't ready yet. As a result, Romo's rating was 90.5 for the season and people thought he was in decline, but the 104 attempts at 66.7 to those three guys was what killed his rating, which obviously hurt the offense.

There was nothing even close to that in 2014. Bryant, Witten, Williams, Beasley, and Murray all represented legitimate threats. The biggest improvement this past season was on 3rd down.

Pass Rating
3rd or 4th down, 2014 (2013)
Romo 115.3 (79.8)
Beasley 17 tgt 145.2 (120.6)
Bryant 29 tgt 113.0 (112.5)
Witten 34 tgt 109.2 (93.9)
Murray 10 tgt 99.6 (88.3)
Williams 17 tgt 58.9 (35.6)

Conversion Percentage on Pass Plays
3rd or 4th down, 2014 (2013)
Romo 49.0% (35.2%)
Beasley 17 tgt 64.7% (63.2%)
Witten 34 tgt 59.5% (38.8%)
Bryant 29 tgt 47.1% (42.9%)
Williams 17 tgt 38.9% (34.8%)
Murray 10 tgt 30.0% (28.6%)

Part of the reason for the better performance is the running game creating more manageable distances on 3rd down. The Cowboys average distance to go on 3rd down in 2014 was 7.4 yards, down from 7.8 the year before. But Dallas moved up from 23rd last year to 5th this year in conversion percentage on 3rd and 8+, which accounted for 42% of all its 3rd down pass plays. Those are situations when the run got you nothing on 1st and 2nd, and the defense knows to expect pass on 3rd.

Even with that improvement, breaking down 3rd down attempts by target, you can see that Terrance Williams (apart from his signature catch in Seattle) has yet to contribute much at all on this down. For his career, the rating on Williams' targets from Romo is 45.8 on 3rd and 4th down, and 139.7 on 1st and 2nd.

I liked how you put Murray's year into a passing stat. I think it also shows that fumbles do have any more of an impact than INTs. Many fans want to dump Murray because of his early season fumbles but will overlook Romo's INTs and disregard Demarco's 8 straight 100 yd games.

 

[DFWJC]

Harris had a number of big plays (pass, run, and return) called back due to penalty. It was like he was cursed.

He had least one TD called back.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Harris definitely started to seem more dispensable in both returner and WR duties this season.

I'm not sure what is driving that but you are right. It's frustrating and I won't be surprised to see the Cowboys make some changes this summer.