Romo's Sudden and Mysterious Rise

[percyhoward]

"Tony Romo is having the best season of his career to this point, and I am not even sure it is close. He is having a simply amazing season and, of course, picked a rather unlikely time to do it in his career arc." -- Bob Sturm

When Romo signed his contract extension, he said that he was not an 8-8 quarterback. If you're one of those like Sturm, you probably though he was just blowing smoke. After all, look at his "career arc." In his first four years, three Pro Bowls, a couple of top 5 seasons in passer rating and three trips to the playoffs. Since then, no Pro Bowls, only one top 5 season and never able to lead his team above .500. He'd become little more than an average quarterback. Now he's suddenly the #2 rated passer in the NFL, and his team has its best record this late in a season since 2009. Amazing. Unlikely.

Whatever.

These are the team's yearly rankings during the Romo era, excluding pass offense. The first ranking is the average rank in rushing yards/TD, the second is defensive pass rating/points allowed per drive. I then took the average of both rankings to make a "rest of team" ranking (in parentheses)

2006 8th, 21st (14.5)
2007 13th, 9th (11.0)
2008 21st, 17th (19.0)
2009 11th, 9th (10.0)
2010 22nd, 24th (23.0)
2011 24th, 22nd (23.0)
2012 29th, 27th (28.0)
2013 25th, 28th (26.5)
2014 7th, 17th (12.0)

If you were paying attention, you knew this when it was happening -- excluding the pass offense, from 2010-13, this was a bad team that would have had about 5 wins per season with an average QB performance.

Romo's best season was when he had his most complete receiving corps (2011 -- Dez, healthy Miles, Robinson). His season rating was above 100, but this didn't show in W-L because of how weak the rest of the team was. His next two best years (2009, 2007) were when he had his best teams around him. His worst year was 2012 when he had his worst team around him. These are not coincidences.

Top 5 Rated Passers Since 2010
Rogers 111.3 (17th, 12th) 14.5
Manning 105.1 (15th, 15th) 15.0
Brady 100.3 (7th, 13th) 10.0
Brees 100.2 (17th, 20th) 18.5
Romo 98.0 (21st, 24th) 22.5

The rankings in parentheses are for those teams' running games and defenses. The last number is the average of those two ranks -- it's where the team ranks without the passing game. Romo said it all with the words, "I'm not an 8-8 quarterback." Of course he isn't. His numbers over the last five seasons are up there with the game's elites. The main difference between him and the other four is that Romo did most of this on a bottom 10 team.

Which tends to have an effect on your career arc.

The whole point of looking at individual statistics is to separate the performance of the team from that of the individual player. If you weren't paying attention to the player's individual performance on bad teams (or didn't understand their significance), then naturally you are surprised by his individual performance this year. Sure it's his best season so far, but there's nothing amazing or unlikely about it.

 

[kramskoi]

I think play-calling, o-line play and lack of a commitment to running the football has also done him no favors over the years, especially under Garrett.

 

[Cowboys606]

He's clearly on HGH or steroids of some sort.

 

[THEHEREAFTER]

Excellent thread!

 

[percyhoward]

I think play-calling, o-line play and lack of a commitment to running the football has also done him no favors over the years, especially under Garrett.

I agree, and I think these things are reflected in the rushing yards/TD rankings.

 

[Direwolf63]

Percy, the points you make above should be obvious to anyone who has been watching the games since Romo came on the scene. The problem has never been Romo, but the players around him. Even Stephen said as much a couple of weeks ago.

Thanks for putting together the objective numbers that support the observations of many, including myself.

 

[Fletch]

Elite?

Dangit! There's that word again.

 

[kramskoi]

Percy, the points you make above should be obvious to anyone who has been watching the games since Romo came on the scene. The problem has never been Romo, but the players around him. Even Stephen said as much a couple of weeks ago.

Thanks for putting together the objective numbers that support the observations of many, including myself.

Man I have seen lots of garbage comparing Romo to Trent Dilfer of all people. You watch, it will always be something else attributed to Romo's success. It will never be his prowess as a signal-caller. Never...never...never...never, as Nixon used to say!

 

[Crown Royal]

I think this year is his best body of work regardless of external factors.

I still maintain that 2011 is his best year as the QB of the cowboys that doesn't reflect in the stats, considering the team around him. He legit won games that we had no business winning that season. We were a 3-5 win team without him that year.

 

[Dave_in-NC]

Romo is exactly what Parcells said he was. NOW he has the team around him to prove it.

 

[Pessimist_cowboy]

2011 and this season are close . Keep it up

 

[perrykemp]

IMHO what you are seeing with Romo now is exactly what you should expect when you surround a really good QB with a great OL, great running game, and elite pass receivers (Dez, Witten, etc) as well as a serviceable defense.

Those things allow him to maximize his potential and shine. There are very few QBs who've been able to perform at a very high level without most of those things.

 

[WillieBeamen]

Romo in 2011>Romo in 2014 but its close

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

The only thing Romo did better in 2011 was throw the deep ball. There is no way there's even a comparison. I don't think people realize Romo has only 6 int's and 3 of them came in the 1st game of the season.

 

[Rockport]

You don't need stats to determine if a QB is any good. All you have to do is watch him play. Romo has showed from the first game Parcells started him that he is more than capable of leading a good team to a Super Bowl win. Many haters either don't watch the games and get their takes from the national media or they just are stupid.

 

[Crown Royal]

The only thing Romo did better in 2011 was throw the deep ball. There is no way there's even a comparison. I don't think people realize Romo has only 6 int's and 3 of them came in the 1st game of the season.

He only threw 10 in 2011. His starting day one OL, if I remember correctly, was Doug Free at LT, Kyle Kosier (and he was DONE), Phil Costa (retired now), Bill Nagy, Tyron Smith. Just look at the middle of that line and tell me you don't cringe.

This was also Garrett's first year, sMiles was starting the long road to a crappy hammy, etc. He was often the only thing keeping us in the game.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

He only threw 10 in 2011. His starting day one OL, if I remember correctly, was Doug Free at LT, Kyle Kosier (and he was DONE), Phil Costa (retired now), Bill Nagy, Tyron Smith. Just look at the middle of that line and tell me you don't cringe.

This was also Garrett's first year, sMiles was starting the long road to a crappy hammy, etc. He was often the only thing keeping us in the game.

Yeah but since week 1 he's only thrown 3 INT's. Factor in he's had a bad back, missed a game and his offense is much more reliant on the rushing attack? There's no comparison IMO. Not to mention we were 8-8 that year lol. And he's far more efficient this year than he was that year. I'll say this. His deep balls and arm were better. His chemistry with Laurent was a thing of beauty.

 

[bark]

He's clearly on HGH or steroids of some sort.

Beat me too it !

 

[big dog cowboy]

You don't need stats to determine if a QB is any good. All you have to do is watch him play. Romo has showed from the first game Parcells started him that he is more than capable of leading a good team to a Super Bowl win. Many haters either don't watch the games and get their takes from the national media.

There you go. It's no wonder Romo had back problems after carrying this team for many years.

 

[WillieBeamen]

The only thing Romo did better in 2011 was throw the deep ball. There is no way there's even a comparison. I don't think people realize Romo has only 6 int's and 3 of them came in the 1st game of the season.

Romo didnt start playing at an elite level this season until the New Orleans game. In 2011 with one of the worst o lines in the league Tony had some of his most classic games ie; the San Francisco game, the Bills game where he set the cowboys record for most consecutive pass completions and completion pct., and the tampa game (4tds in the 1st half). He led a terrible team almost into the playoffs by himself, Turned a jag wr into a legitimate wr and got him paid in the offseason, all while playing a quarter of the season with broken ribs. Im not taking away anything hes doing this year though. This yr and 2011 are definately his best imo.