Romo's Targets: Passer Rating

[percyhoward]

This is for Romo's career, for receivers with at least 50 targets.

The first list is just a longer version of my sig, with a lot more information.
receivers' point of view: catches of targets (catch rate)
QB's point of view: completions of attempts (completion percentage)

Robinson  53 of  79 (67.1%)  853 yd (10.80) 11 td (13.93)  2 int (2.53) 132.0
Bryant   166 of 257 (64.6%) 2448 yd  (9.53) 22 td  (8.56)  5 int (1.95) 116.0
Crayton  141 of 224 (62.9%) 2191 yd  (9.78) 18 td  (8.04)  6 int (2.68) 110.9
Austin   235 of 379 (62.0%) 3578 yd  (9.44) 27 td  (7.12)  9 int (2.37) 106.9
Barber   132 of 160 (82.5%)  995 yd  (6.22)  6 td  (3.75)  0 int (0.00) 105.1
Witten   509 of 705 (72.3%) 5738 yd  (8.14) 23 td  (3.26) 18 int (2.55)  96.4
FJones    97 of 117 (82.9%)  730 yd  (6.24)  2 td  (1.71)  1 int (0.85)  94.8
Owens    198 of 360 (55.0%) 3105 yd  (8.63) 33 td  (9.17) 19 int (5.28)  92.4
Choice    58 of  80 (72.5%)  451 yd  (5.64)  0 td  (0.00)  0 int (0.00)  86.0
Williams  75 of 157 (47.8%) 1086 yd  (6.92) 12 td  (7.64)  4 int (2.55)  85.6
Murray    61 of  75 (81.3%)  434 yd  (5.79)  0 td  (0.00)  1 int (1.33)  85.2
Hurd      32 of  61 (52.5%)  484 yd  (7.93)  2 td  (3.28)  1 int (1.64)  83.0
Bennett   53 of  81 (65.4%)  516 yd  (6.37)  4 td  (4.94)  4 int (4.94)  79.0
Ogletree  56 of  92 (60.9%)  694 yd  (7.54)  4 td  (4.35)  6 int (6.52)  71.6
Glenn     43 of  71 (60.6%)  672 yd  (9.46)  3 td  (4.23)  6 int (8.45)  70.9

The second list is more important, because the players at the top and bottom have had the biggest effect on the rating (and thus on the team). For example, Robinson is 4th despite his high rating because he had so few targets.

Effect on Passer Rating
(Romo's career passer rating is 95.6. Number in parentheses is Romo's rating w/o that player's targets)
Bryant + 1.7 (93.9)
Austin + 1.5 (94.1)
Crayton + 1.1 (94.5)
Robinson + 1.1 (94.5)
Barber + 0.7 (94.9)
Witten + 0.2 (95.4)
FJones + 0.1 (95.5)
Murray even (95.6)
Hurd - .03 (95.9)
Choice - .03 (95.9)
Owens - 0.4 (96.0)
Bennett - 0.4 (96.0)
Williams - 0.5 (96.1)
Glenn - 0.6 (96.2)
Ogletree - 0.7 (96.3)

 

[blackbull]

Again, why is witten and not dez the number 1 option? Smh

 

[Future]

Again, why is witten and not dez the number 1 option? Smh

Dez is the #1...Those numbers are over like a 7 year period. Last I checked, Dez has only been in the league for 3.

 

[Nova]

I want to say that I'm surprised to see Owens in the middle of the pack, but I'm really not. It seemed like they were trying to run the offense through him and it wasn't doing us any favors in 2008.

 

[percyhoward]

I want to say that I'm surprised to see Owens in the middle of the pack, but I'm really not. It seemed like they were trying to run the offense through him and it wasn't doing us any favors in 2008.

In 2008, Owens was one of only 6 WR with 1,000 yards and 10 TD, and many were arguing that he should have gone to the Pro Bowl. But the passer rating on his targets that year was only 72.0, and Romo's INT% ranked 29th in the league. Substitute Dez's 2012 targets for Owens' in 2008 and it would have moved Romo up from 29th to 6th in INT% that year.

You can't overstate the impact that had on the team.

 

[percyhoward]

Take Romo's 2008 numbers (276 of 450 3448 yd 26 td 14 int),
subtract Owens' targets (56 of 115 905 yd 9 td 7 int),
and you get 220 of 335 2543 yd 17 td 7 int.

Add to that Bryant's 2012 targets (92 of 137 1382 yd 12 td 2 int),
and you get 312 of 472 3925 yd 29 td 9 int.
That's a 104.4 rating, which would have been the highest in Romo's career.

In 2008, with a broken hand, and Roy Williams on the team.

 

[Oh_Canada]

Bryant best player on the team and will be recognized as one of the VERY best in the league by the end of this season...say it loud and say it proud!

 

[percyhoward]

More grist for the mill.

2007: Owens 81 of 141 (57.4%) 1355 yd (9.61 YPT) 15 td (10.64 TD%) 9 int (6.38 INT%) 98.9 (Pro Bowl, 1st team All-Pro)
2009: Austin 81 of 121 (66.9%) 1320 yd (10.9 YPT) 11 td (9.09 TD%) 2 int (1.65 INT%) 126.7 (Pro Bowl)
2012: Bryant 92 of 137 (67.2%) 1382 yd (10.1 YPT) 12 td (8.76 TD%) 2 int (1.46 INT%) 123.2

 

[arglebargle]

More grist for the mill.

2007: Owens 81 of 141 (57.4%) 1355 yd (9.61 YPT) 15 td (10.64 TD%) 9 int (6.38 INT%) 98.9 (Pro Bowl, 1st team All-Pro)
2009: Austin 81 of 121 (66.9%) 1320 yd (10.9 YPT) 11 td (9.09 TD%) 2 int (1.65 INT%) 126.7 (Pro Bowl)
2012: Bryant 92 of 137 (67.2%) 1382 yd (10.1 YPT) 12 td (8.76 TD%) 2 int (1.46 INT%) 123.2

I think Bryant's issue there was he got hot the last half of the season, whereas a bunch of the voting/rating happened in the first half of the season. If he continues his trajectory from the last half of last season, All Pro status is within reach.

Great stats research, interesting analysis, and always a good read!