Romo's Targets: Touchdowns

[percyhoward]

For Romo's career (min 50 targets)

Total Touchdowns
Owens 33
Austin 27
Witten 23
Bryant 22
Crayton 18
Williams 12
Robinson 11
Barber 6
Bennett 4
Ogletree 4
Glenn 3
Hurd 2
FJones 2
Murray 0
Choice 0

Touchdown Percentage
Robinson 79 tgt 11 td 13.92
Owens 360 tgt 33 td 9.17
Bryant 257 tgt 22 td 8.56
Crayton 224 tgt 18 td 8.04
Williams 157 tgt 12 td 7.64
Austin 379 tgt 27 td 7.12
Bennett 81 tgt 4 td 4.94
Ogletree 92 tgt 4 td 4.35
Glenn 71 tgt 3 td 4.23
Barber 160 tgt 6 td 3.75
Hurd 61 tgt 2 td 3.28
Witten 705 tgt 23 td 3.26
FJones 117 tgt 2 td 1.71
Murray 75 tgt 0 td 0.00
Choice 80 tgt 0 td 0.00

Effect on Touchdown Percentage
(Romo's Career TD% is 5.46. Number in parentheses is Romo's TD% w/o that player's targets.)
Owens + .46 (5.00)
Bryant + .26 (5.20)
Austin + .22 (5.24)
Robinson + .21 (5.25)
Crayton + .19 (5.27)
Williams + .11 (5.35)
Bennett - .02 (5.48)
Glenn - .03 (5.49)
Hurd - .04 (5.50)
Ogletree - .04 (5.50)
Barber - .09 (5.55)
FJones - .14 (5.60)
Choice - .14 (5.60)
Murray - .14 (5.60)
Witten - .61 (6.07)

 

[Eskimo]

Witten's TD rate is downright pathetic.

It'll be interesting to see if Callahan can get him the ball more.

The interesting thing I've noticed over the year is how tight Witten seems to get played inside the 10. He seems to be doubled a lot - why would teams do this given his low TD rate? Is the issue that his lack of quick-twitch athleticism doesn't allow him to get separation in tight spaces? It's always seemed a mystery why a guy who is 6-5 and 265 pounds with long arms and great hands doesn't catch more TD passes. Is it that Romo is afraid to go to him because of tight coverage - doesn't seem to stop him anywhere else. Is it because Garrett won't call a play with him as the primary target? Is it because he stays in to block a lot? Is it because he just can't get open?

Regardless, I'm hoping that Escobar can perhaps be the threat that Witten was never able to become or maybe even Hanna will the buy with his speed and quickness. Of course, we still have Dez who is deadly on slants, fades and backshoulder throws. That makes it almost impossible to play him without double-teaming him.

 

[percyhoward]

Witten's TD rate is downright pathetic.

It'll be interesting to see if Callahan can get him the ball more.

The interesting thing I've noticed over the year is how tight Witten seems to get played inside the 10. He seems to be doubled a lot - why would teams do this given his low TD rate? Is the issue that his lack of quick-twitch athleticism doesn't allow him to get separation in tight spaces? It's always seemed a mystery why a guy who is 6-5 and 265 pounds with long arms and great hands doesn't catch more TD passes. Is it that Romo is afraid to go to him because of tight coverage - doesn't seem to stop him anywhere else. Is it because Garrett won't call a play with him as the primary target? Is it because he stays in to block a lot? Is it because he just can't get open?

Regardless, I'm hoping that Escobar can perhaps be the threat that Witten was never able to become or maybe even Hanna will the buy with his speed and quickness. Of course, we still have Dez who is deadly on slants, fades and backshoulder throws. That makes it almost impossible to play him without double-teaming him.

Witten has been much better at finding the end zone when it isn't Romo throwing the ball.

Romo: 705 tgt 23 td 3.26
Kitna, McGee, Orton: 105 tgt 8 td 7.62

Could be that when Romo finds himself in the red zone, he's less likely to force it into a tight spot, and more likely than the backups (and more able) to let his receivers work themselves open. But like you said, throwing into tiny windows doesn't seem to be a problem for him outside the 20, and he's made some of those throws to WR in the red zone (the one to Austin in Tampa comes to mind).

I think defenses can afford to focus on Witten more in the red zone because of the smaller field, and our lack of a running threat.

 

[Eskimo]

Witten has been much better at finding the end zone when it isn't Romo throwing the ball.

Romo: 705 tgt 23 td 3.26
Kitna, McGee, Orton: 105 tgt 8 td 7.62

Could be that when Romo finds himself in the red zone, he's less likely to force it into a tight spot, and more likely than the backups (and more able) to let his receivers work themselves open. But like you said, throwing into tiny windows doesn't seem to be a problem for him outside the 20, and he's made some of those throws to WR in the red zone (the one to Austin in Tampa comes to mind).

I think defenses can afford to focus on Witten more in the red zone because of the smaller field, and our lack of a running threat.

Perhaps but I keep wondering about Gonzalez - the Chiefs had great running attacks but I wouldn't say the Falcons have the last couple of years.

Moreover, Barber was a great red zone running threat from 2005-8. I don't particularly recall Witten lighting things up back then either.

I do agree with you that defenses seem to play him really tight but is that him not running the routes well to get separation or is it the defenses cheating all their coverages towards him?

The thing about other QB's throwing to Witten in the end zone is a bit of an indirect comparison because most of those throws happened from 2003-5 when he was younger and maybe a step quicker. He also didn't have quite the same reputation around the league as a great pass catcher so defenses probably weren't as geared towards stopping him. I do wonder if there was something with Testaverde and Bledsoe, though. They are both bigger and taller QBs and it may be easier for them to spot Witten in the congested red zone than it is for Romo. I've often wondered how much of a role height has played in Romo's struggles to get Witten the ball in the end zone.

 

[Eskimo]

On another note, why did Laurent have to leave? Couldn't he see that he wasn't a #1 WR and that most of the money from the Jags was paper he might never receive? He could have continued to be something special as the #3 guy behind Dez and Miles with the special improvisational chemistry he had with Romo.

Why couldn't we have given him a 2- or 3-year deal when we signed him? What a glorious opportunity that was wasted. The Jags threw him into a role he couldn't handle and he got his head knocked off. Oh well - I hope he saved his money and doesn't have any lingering effects of all those concussions from last year.

 

[percyhoward]

Perhaps but I keep wondering about Gonzalez - the Chiefs had great running attacks but I wouldn't say the Falcons have the last couple of years.

Moreover, Barber was a great red zone running threat from 2005-8. I don't particularly recall Witten lighting things up back then either.

I do agree with you that defenses seem to play him really tight but is that him not running the routes well to get separation or is it the defenses cheating all their coverages towards him?

The thing about other QB's throwing to Witten in the end zone is a bit of an indirect comparison because most of those throws happened from 2003-5 when he was younger and maybe a step quicker. He also didn't have quite the same reputation around the league as a great pass catcher so defenses probably weren't as geared towards stopping him. I do wonder if there was something with Testaverde and Bledsoe, though. They are both bigger and taller QBs and it may be easier for them to spot Witten in the congested red zone than it is for Romo. I've often wondered how much of a role height has played in Romo's struggles to get Witten the ball in the end zone.

The numbers for other QB to Witten are since 2010 only, so youth doesn't factor in. And I think you can generally say that Witten has been more successful in the red zone when the Cowboys' run game was also. The exception would be 2010, by which time our run game was already weak, but there was a QB other than Romo throwing him the ball. Kitna isn't any taller than Romo, but Kitna was definitely less of an improvisor.

In 2012 especially, Witten was essentially our running game. It's a broad statement, but I think basically defenses were willing to give us that until we hit the red zone, where their philosophy changed. I also think Robinson and Williams both benefited from the attention Witten (and others) were getting in the red zone.

 

[percyhoward]

I think Robinson's departure was inevitable; we all knew he would go for the big payday and you can't blame him. Even in hindsight, assuming the concussions would have been an issue no matter where he played, it was probably for the best. Competent 3rd receivers have had an excellent TD history with Romo, we just made the huge mistake of thinking Ogletree (who had no TD, and had never caught anything beyond 20 yards in his career) could fill that role.

 

[CoCo]

I think Robinson's departure was inevitable; we all knew he would go for the big payday and you can't blame him. Even in hindsight, assuming the concussions would have been an issue no matter where he played, it was probably for the best. Competent 3rd receivers have had an excellent TD history with Romo, we just made the huge mistake of thinking Ogletree (who had no TD, and had never caught anything beyond 20 yards in his career) could fill that role.

Agreed on Laurent. I don't recall his contract specifics but the money he did receive - SB$ and 1st year salary, was a very big sure thing in his life I suspect. A million $ before taxes is one thing. But multiply that by two, three or four and I suspect that created financial security that would've always been otherwise at risk. I do hope he got that out of the move because his future NFL prospects suddenly look grim.

On top of that you can bet the default athlete attitude is belief in self beyond the odds. You bet he's going to take a shot at being a #1.

Regarding O-tree, I suppose Dallas believed that Robinson's success was there for the taking for the next guy in line. Ogletree was a painful experience for everyone. I even felt sorry for him.