Rookie Quarterback On A Good Team

[DallasEast]

Count Mac Jones as the latest in a rare number of rookie quarterbacks ever graced with leading a team good enough to gain a playoff shot but he and his team falling short of reaching the Super Bowl or winning it. Football is a team sport requiring many factors to achieve ultimate success. Veteran experience can be an asset at every position, although there have been exceptions for that requirement during the past 56 years (and counting), just not at the head of the offense.

I wonder if the 2022 season will see a rookie quarterback-led team or teams into the playoffs? Guess the upcoming draft may provide the first indication for that possible 'what if'. Stay tuned.

 

[Flamma]

Count Mac Jones as the latest in a rare number of rookie quarterbacks ever graced with leading a team good enough to gain a playoff shot but he and his team falling short of reaching the Super Bowl or winning it. Football is a team sport requiring many factors to achieve ultimate success. Veteran experience can be an asset at every position, although there have been exceptions for that requirement during the past 56 years (and counting), just not at the head of the offense.

I wonder if the 2022 season will see a rookie quarterback-led team or teams into the playoffs? Guess the upcoming draft may provide the first indication for that possible 'what if'. Stay tuned.

It can happen. But the stars have to align just right. It's not just about inexperience. Look at Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. They weren't rookies technically, but might as well have been.

 

[DallasEast]

It can happen.

True but it has not happened and will not necessarily ever happen. Hopefully, I will live long enough to see it actually happen because others repeatedly remind me of that over half century unrealized assumption.

But the stars have to align just right.

I agree but "all the stars" should mean considering everything your team has already to push through to a title shot and, hopefully, a title win. That is the gamble any head coach (and perhaps even a team owner also sometimes) must gravely weigh because Super Bowl runs can be fleeting.

It's not just about inexperience.

True. It is also not just about the inner fear of losing your team's regular season mojo and basing your decision entirely on the euphoria of regular season winning streaks either. However, I do not think that was the case with New England. I believe Bill Belichick made a risk assessment of jettisoning veteran quarterback experience (e.g. Cam Newton) and gambled how far Mac Jones would take the offense and the team. It is highly likely Belichick factored in the enormous experience Jones would obtain, just like any other starting rookie quarterback, with the expectation that the team would not advance to the Super Bowl. Belichick is one of those rare head coaches who is always thinking three moves ahead of almost everyone else.

Look at Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. They weren't rookies technically, but might as well have been.

You are 100% correct. Both Brady and Warner were not rookies. All experience, whether it is gained on or off the field, should be considered at any position. That goes for quarterback as well. Holding a clipboard on the sideline. Working in more than just one training camp. Personally observing your team's and other teams' veteran quarterbacks, first-hand and up close, play at this level. Etc. These are all forms of accessible experience made available to any quarterback.

Warner and Brady? Warner played arena and NFL Europe football extensively several years along with a tiny bit of regular season action as a third-stringer. Brady worked his way up the depth chart from fourth to second string during his rookie season. When each player's opportunity to become the starter materialized, both had collected professional experience well-beyond that of any rookie quarterback who has ever entered the league.

Our franchise's own Troy Aikman was technically a rookie starting quarterback. Warner and Brady were not technically rookie starting quarterbacks.

 

[terra]

True but it has not happened and will not necessarily ever happen. Hopefully, I will live long enough to see it actually happen because others repeatedly remind me of that over half century unrealized assumption.
I agree but "all the stars" should mean considering everything your team has already to push through to a title shot and, hopefully, a title win. That is the gamble any head coach (and perhaps even a team owner also sometimes) must gravely weigh because Super Bowl runs can be fleeting.
True. It is also not just about the inner fear of losing your team's regular season mojo and basing your decision entirely on the euphoria of regular season winning streaks either. However, I do not think that was the case with New England. I believe Bill Belichick made a risk assessment of jettisoning veteran quarterback experience (e.g. Cam Newton) and gambled how far Mac Jones would take the offense and the team. It is highly likely Belichick factored in the enormous experience Jones would obtain, just like any other starting rookie quarterback, with the expectation that the team would not advance to the Super Bowl. Belichick is one of those rare head coaches who is always thinking three moves ahead of almost everyone else.
You are 100% correct. Both Brady and Warner were not rookies. All experience, whether it is gained on or off the field, should be considered at any position. That goes for quarterback as well. Holding a clipboard on the sideline. Working in more than just one training camp. Personally observing your team's and other teams' veteran quarterbacks, first-hand and up close, play at this level. Etc. These are all forms of accessible experience made available to any quarterback.

Warner and Brady? Warner played arena and NFL Europe football extensively several years along with a tiny bit of regular season action as a third-stringer. Brady worked his way up the depth chart from fourth to second string during his rookie season. When each player's opportunity to become the starter materialized, both had collected professional experience well-beyond that of any rookie quarterback who has ever entered the league.

Our franchise's own Troy Aikman was technically a rookie starting quarterback. Warner and Brady were not technically rookie starting quarterbacks.

And lets face it; the first SB win for the Pats came because of their D and Vinny. Brady was a bus driver in that game.

 

[DallasEast]

And lets face it; the first SB win for the Pats came because of their D and Vinny. Brady was a bus driver in that game.

I will defer to others' hindsight determine what Brady did or did not do to help New England win their first Super Bowl. Hopefully the thread will re-focus back upon discussing the probability of actual rookie starting quarterbacks ever leading a good team to a Super Bowl appearance or win. That probability remains at 0% after 56 years in the Super Bowl era.

 

[Flamma]

True but it has not happened and will not necessarily ever happen. Hopefully, I will live long enough to see it actually happen because others repeatedly remind me of that over half century unrealized assumption.
I agree but "all the stars" should mean considering everything your team has already to push through to a title shot and, hopefully, a title win. That is the gamble any head coach (and perhaps even a team owner also sometimes) must gravely weigh because Super Bowl runs can be fleeting.
True. It is also not just about the inner fear of losing your team's regular season mojo and basing your decision entirely on the euphoria of regular season winning streaks either. However, I do not think that was the case with New England. I believe Bill Belichick made a risk assessment of jettisoning veteran quarterback experience (e.g. Cam Newton) and gambled how far Mac Jones would take the offense and the team. It is highly likely Belichick factored in the enormous experience Jones would obtain, just like any other starting rookie quarterback, with the expectation that the team would not advance to the Super Bowl. Belichick is one of those rare head coaches who is always thinking three moves ahead of almost everyone else.
You are 100% correct. Both Brady and Warner were not rookies. All experience, whether it is gained on or off the field, should be considered at any position. That goes for quarterback as well. Holding a clipboard on the sideline. Working in more than just one training camp. Personally observing your team's and other teams' veteran quarterbacks, first-hand and up close, play at this level. Etc. These are all forms of accessible experience made available to any quarterback.

Warner and Brady? Warner played arena and NFL Europe football extensively several years along with a tiny bit of regular season action as a third-stringer. Brady worked his way up the depth chart from fourth to second string during his rookie season. When each player's opportunity to become the starter materialized, both had collected professional experience well-beyond that of any rookie quarterback who has ever entered the league.

Our franchise's own Troy Aikman was technically a rookie starting quarterback. Warner and Brady were not technically rookie starting quarterbacks.

Of course a good veteran QB is going to have an advantage over a rookie. But my opinion as to why a rookie never got there has more to do with circumstance. Very few opportunities. Most top QBs are drafted by teams that have zero chance at a championship regardless of who is playing QB. Any QBs drafted by good teams are usually not good QBs. If a good team finds a gem in the later rounds, that's the opportunity. How often does that happen?

 

[DallasEast]

Of course a good veteran QB is going to have an advantage over a rookie. But my opinion as to why a rookie never got there has more to do with circumstance. Very few opportunities. Most top QBs are drafted by teams that have zero chance at a championship regardless of who is playing QB. Any QBs drafted by good teams are usually not good QBs. If a good team finds a gem in the later rounds, that's the opportunity. How often does that happen?

Answer: It rarely happens. However, the 2021 New England Patriots was an even rarer exception. They selected Jones #15 overall. Same result.