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Through Pain Comes Clarity
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Despite reports late last week, it appears Ohio State rush end/linebacker Vernon Gholston is not negotiating a contract with Bill Parcells' Dolphins. Parcells has only entered serious conversations with Jake Long to this point. I wouldn't rule out Chris Long still being the pick, but it will come down to the player willing to take the cheapest contract. The top selection in 2008 is highly unlikely to sign a deal exceeding JaMarcus Russell's (six years, $61 million with $32 million guaranteed).
1. Dolphins - Michigan OT Jake Long
Until contract talks break off (Bill Parcells has given Long a deadline to sign a deal), Michigan's road-grading left tackle is the clear favorite to be chosen first. Parcells loves players with great size, and at 6'7/315, Long fits the bill.
2. Rams - LSU DT Glenn Dorsey
Dorsey has arguably been the best player in the nation for the last year. His health concerns, which were made news by a St. Louis-based reporter, may be a smokescreen. Drafting Dorsey would allow the Rams to move Adam Carriker to end, instantly upgrading their bulk up front.
3. Falcons - USC DT Sedrick Ellis
With Trey Lewis (torn ACL) questionable for Week 1, the Falcons lack run stoppers on the interior. Ellis is a safe bet to be a Pro Bowl-caliber player, and with so many needs, Atlanta won't take big risks. Due to a huge dropoff after Dorsey and Ellis, the top two defensive tackles will go quick.
4. Oakland - UVA DE/OLB Chris Long
Al Davis is desperate for a postseason push. Long can make a surefire impact against both the run and the pass. Being Howie's son is especially reassuring. The Raiders could put Long at right end and move Derrick Burgess to the weak side, where he'd be run on less frequently.
5. Kansas City - Boise State LT Ryan Clady
The Chiefs are incorporating zone-blocking concepts into their run-heavy offense and Clady's athleticism is ideal for that system. Slotting Branden Albert here is a nice thought, but the Chiefs probably aren't that creative.
6. New York (AFC) - Ohio State DE/OLB Vernon Gholston
The addition of Calvin Pace makes outside linebacker a less obvious need, but Bryan Thomas is coming off a poor season and Pace could be used like Adalius Thomas as an inside/outside linebacker hybrid. The Jets can't let Gholston's outrageous talent fall to the Pats at No. 7.
7. New England - Virginia OL Branden Albert
Aside from Darren McFadden, who is not believed to be on New England's radar, Albert may be the player with the highest ceiling left on the board. Albert can play four positions on the offensive line and could eventually replace Matt Light at left tackle.
8. Baltimore - Boston College QB Matt Ryan
The Ravens are doing a good job pretending their quarterback situation isn't dire. There's no way Baltimore's new coaching staff could like what it's seen on tape of Steve McNair.
9. Cincinnati - Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall
The Bengals' biggest problems were on the other side of the ball last year, but they took steps to improve there by signing DE Antwan Odom. LB Odell Thurman will likely be welcomed back from suspension. Mendenhall has no character concerns, which is a big plus for Cincinnati.
10. New Orleans - Troy CB Leodis McKelvin
After Mike McKenzie, there isn't a proven starting cornerback on the Saints' roster, and McKenzie is rehabbing a torn ACL. McKelvin comes from an unheralded college program, but is NFL ready.
11. Buffalo - Michigan State WR Devin Thomas
The Bills have no problem "reaching" to fill a need. Thomas gives them a big (6'2/217), run after the catch threat to play opposite Lee Evans. He has Anquan Boldin-like characteristics with better straight-line speed.
(Not a chance)12. Denver - Arkansas RB Darren McFadden
A dream scenario for Mike Shanahan, but it's more realistic because of McFadden's character flags. The Broncos are willing to take risks on those types and have seemingly realized their mistake of signing Travis Henry. There's also a pretty good chance that if McFadden gets by the Jets, a team will swoop in before No. 12 to take him. But we're not forecasting trades here.
13. Carolina - Florida DE Derrick Harvey
Harvey and Phillip Merling are the only clearly starting caliber 4-3 defensive end prospects left on the board. Harvey is a far superior pass rusher. This is more of a need than left tackle for the Panthers and they still get exceptional value.
14. Chicago - Pittsburgh OT Jeff Otah
Whether he's playing the left or right, Otah (6'6/336) is everything the Bears want in an offensive tackle. They'll have to look at power running backs like Matt Forte or possibly Kevin Smith in the next two rounds.
15. Detroit - Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart
Tatum Bell is kidding himself if he thinks the Lions are heading to the season with him as their feature back. If Stewart or Mendenhall slips to 15, Detroit shouldn't hesitate. Coach Rod Marinelli wants to use his second-round pick on a linebacker.
16. Arizona - South Florida CB Mike Jenkins
Jenkins would give the Cardinals a cornerback to challenge contract-year starter Eric Green, possibly play the nickel, and contribute in the return game. Arizona would be in big trouble if Green or Roderick Hood got hurt and Ralph Brown was forced to start.
17. Minnesota - Clemson DE Phillip Merling
Merling is recovering from sports hernia surgery and may only be a disruptive force on early downs as a rookie. But the Vikings can't be choosy at such a massive need spot, especially with Brian Robison (4.5 sacks/five starts as a rookie) available to nickel rush. Merling could move inside to spell Pat Williams on third downs, giving the Vikes a formidable pass rushing upgrade.
18. Houston - Vanderbilt LT Chris Williams
The Texans understand how hard it is to find a quality left tackle (see Seth Wand, Charles Spencer) and can fill a major need on Matt Schaub's blind side with Williams, who's well worth the pick. Williams needs to beef up, but possesses ideal athleticism to zone block and can mirror and slide with quick defensive ends.
19. Philadelphia - Kansas CB Aqib Talib
Assuming the Birds deal Lito Sheppard -- which is expected -- they'll need another corner to play behind Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown. Talib must polish his technique, but has the size to match up with big receivers in the division like Plaxico Burress and Terrell Owens.
20. Tampa Bay - Virginia Tech CB Brandon Flowers
The Bucs appear to be opening their left cornerback spot to competition. A rugged, physical tackler like Flowers makes sense here. Assuming they don't swing trades, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay can wait until the second and third rounds to target big wideouts with passable starters in place.
21. Washington - Texas WR Limas Sweed
Sweed isn't your prototypical West Coast wideout, but he's closer than anyone else on Washington's roster. The flashy, confident senior would play split end in Jim Zorn's offense. Santana Moss will likely move to Deion Branch's flanker spot with Antwaan Randle El becoming Zorn's younger, speedier version of Bobby Engram.
22. Dallas - Tennessee State CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
DRC has become a little overrated during a stellar offseason. While he's an exceptional talent, offensive coordinators didn't game plan around him in even the Ohio Valley and those amazing ball skills brought Rodgers-Cromartie only two picks as a senior. Like his cousin, DRC needs a year as a sub-package corner before he's counted on for significant NFL snaps.
23. Pittsburgh - North Carolina DL Kentwan Balmer
Balmer would be a slight reach at No. 23, something Pittsburgh isn't known for doing. But the Steelers have a serious depth need behind two-gap ends Brett Keisel and Aaron Smith, who's coming off a biceps tear and just turned 32. At 6'5/308, Balmer is made to play end in the 3-4.
24. Tennessee - USC DE Lawrence Jackson
Jevon Kearse isn't going to get it done as an every-down replacement for 2007's combination of Travis LaBoy and Antwan Odom, who both left in free agency. Jackson had an up-and-down college career and needs to play in a rotation as a rookie.
25. Seattle - USC OLB Keith Rivers
We saw it with Lance Briggs at the start of free agency; 4-3 outside linebackers that don't rush the passer just aren't that valued in the NFL. Rivers will be a highly productive pro, but it'll be a big surprise if he goes in the top ten like some are predicting.
26. Jacksonville - Miami (FL) S Kenny Phillips
It's hard to imagine the Jaguars counting on Gerald Sensabaugh to start at strong safety considering he's coming off surgery on both shoulders. Phillips has experience at the free safety position as well, so if the Jags need to move Reggie Nelson to corner at some point, they'd have options.
27. San Diego - Boston College RT Gosder Cherilus
The Chargers plan to move current starting right tackle Jeromey Clary to guard when Mike Goff's contract expires in 2009. Cherilus protected Matt Ryan's blind side as a senior, but is a natural on the opposite end.
28. Dallas - California WR DeSean Jackson
The Cowboys have never seemed satisfied with Miles Austin on kick returns. Jackson would be a speed upgrade there and learn behind Terry Glenn for a few games before replacing him in the starting lineup down the stretch.
29. San Francisco - Auburn OLB Quentin Groves
The Niners aren't concerned about Groves' recent heart procedure, which is expected to make him healthier in the long run. San Francisco is desperate for a weak-side pass rush.
30. Green Bay - Arizona CB Antoine Cason
GM Ted Thompson loves big corners and Cason meets the profile at 6'1/190. The 2007 Jim Thorpe Award winner has few flaws in his game. Al Harris and Charles Woodson are getting old.
31. New York (NFC) - Tennessee LB Jerod Mayo
The Giants would be fine entering the season with Gerris Wilkinson on the weak side, but he needs more competition than Danny Clark. Mayo (6'1/242) can also play inside. Giants MLB Antonio Pierce turns 30 this season and Chase Blackburn isn't a long-term option behind him.
Notably left out: Arkansas RB Felix Jones, Penn State LB Dan Connor, Louisville QB Brian Brohm, Michigan QB Chad Henne, Purdue TE Dustin Keller, Delaware QB Joe Flacco, Miami (FL) DE Calais Campbell, Oklahoma LB Curtis Lofton, Michigan WR Mario Manningham, USC TE Fred Davis
1. Dolphins - Michigan OT Jake Long
Until contract talks break off (Bill Parcells has given Long a deadline to sign a deal), Michigan's road-grading left tackle is the clear favorite to be chosen first. Parcells loves players with great size, and at 6'7/315, Long fits the bill.
2. Rams - LSU DT Glenn Dorsey
Dorsey has arguably been the best player in the nation for the last year. His health concerns, which were made news by a St. Louis-based reporter, may be a smokescreen. Drafting Dorsey would allow the Rams to move Adam Carriker to end, instantly upgrading their bulk up front.
3. Falcons - USC DT Sedrick Ellis
With Trey Lewis (torn ACL) questionable for Week 1, the Falcons lack run stoppers on the interior. Ellis is a safe bet to be a Pro Bowl-caliber player, and with so many needs, Atlanta won't take big risks. Due to a huge dropoff after Dorsey and Ellis, the top two defensive tackles will go quick.
4. Oakland - UVA DE/OLB Chris Long
Al Davis is desperate for a postseason push. Long can make a surefire impact against both the run and the pass. Being Howie's son is especially reassuring. The Raiders could put Long at right end and move Derrick Burgess to the weak side, where he'd be run on less frequently.
5. Kansas City - Boise State LT Ryan Clady
The Chiefs are incorporating zone-blocking concepts into their run-heavy offense and Clady's athleticism is ideal for that system. Slotting Branden Albert here is a nice thought, but the Chiefs probably aren't that creative.
6. New York (AFC) - Ohio State DE/OLB Vernon Gholston
The addition of Calvin Pace makes outside linebacker a less obvious need, but Bryan Thomas is coming off a poor season and Pace could be used like Adalius Thomas as an inside/outside linebacker hybrid. The Jets can't let Gholston's outrageous talent fall to the Pats at No. 7.
7. New England - Virginia OL Branden Albert
Aside from Darren McFadden, who is not believed to be on New England's radar, Albert may be the player with the highest ceiling left on the board. Albert can play four positions on the offensive line and could eventually replace Matt Light at left tackle.
8. Baltimore - Boston College QB Matt Ryan
The Ravens are doing a good job pretending their quarterback situation isn't dire. There's no way Baltimore's new coaching staff could like what it's seen on tape of Steve McNair.
9. Cincinnati - Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall
The Bengals' biggest problems were on the other side of the ball last year, but they took steps to improve there by signing DE Antwan Odom. LB Odell Thurman will likely be welcomed back from suspension. Mendenhall has no character concerns, which is a big plus for Cincinnati.
10. New Orleans - Troy CB Leodis McKelvin
After Mike McKenzie, there isn't a proven starting cornerback on the Saints' roster, and McKenzie is rehabbing a torn ACL. McKelvin comes from an unheralded college program, but is NFL ready.
11. Buffalo - Michigan State WR Devin Thomas
The Bills have no problem "reaching" to fill a need. Thomas gives them a big (6'2/217), run after the catch threat to play opposite Lee Evans. He has Anquan Boldin-like characteristics with better straight-line speed.
(Not a chance)12. Denver - Arkansas RB Darren McFaddenA dream scenario for Mike Shanahan, but it's more realistic because of McFadden's character flags. The Broncos are willing to take risks on those types and have seemingly realized their mistake of signing Travis Henry. There's also a pretty good chance that if McFadden gets by the Jets, a team will swoop in before No. 12 to take him. But we're not forecasting trades here.
13. Carolina - Florida DE Derrick Harvey
Harvey and Phillip Merling are the only clearly starting caliber 4-3 defensive end prospects left on the board. Harvey is a far superior pass rusher. This is more of a need than left tackle for the Panthers and they still get exceptional value.
14. Chicago - Pittsburgh OT Jeff Otah
Whether he's playing the left or right, Otah (6'6/336) is everything the Bears want in an offensive tackle. They'll have to look at power running backs like Matt Forte or possibly Kevin Smith in the next two rounds.
15. Detroit - Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart
Tatum Bell is kidding himself if he thinks the Lions are heading to the season with him as their feature back. If Stewart or Mendenhall slips to 15, Detroit shouldn't hesitate. Coach Rod Marinelli wants to use his second-round pick on a linebacker.
16. Arizona - South Florida CB Mike Jenkins
Jenkins would give the Cardinals a cornerback to challenge contract-year starter Eric Green, possibly play the nickel, and contribute in the return game. Arizona would be in big trouble if Green or Roderick Hood got hurt and Ralph Brown was forced to start.
17. Minnesota - Clemson DE Phillip Merling
Merling is recovering from sports hernia surgery and may only be a disruptive force on early downs as a rookie. But the Vikings can't be choosy at such a massive need spot, especially with Brian Robison (4.5 sacks/five starts as a rookie) available to nickel rush. Merling could move inside to spell Pat Williams on third downs, giving the Vikes a formidable pass rushing upgrade.
18. Houston - Vanderbilt LT Chris Williams
The Texans understand how hard it is to find a quality left tackle (see Seth Wand, Charles Spencer) and can fill a major need on Matt Schaub's blind side with Williams, who's well worth the pick. Williams needs to beef up, but possesses ideal athleticism to zone block and can mirror and slide with quick defensive ends.
19. Philadelphia - Kansas CB Aqib Talib
Assuming the Birds deal Lito Sheppard -- which is expected -- they'll need another corner to play behind Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown. Talib must polish his technique, but has the size to match up with big receivers in the division like Plaxico Burress and Terrell Owens.
20. Tampa Bay - Virginia Tech CB Brandon Flowers
The Bucs appear to be opening their left cornerback spot to competition. A rugged, physical tackler like Flowers makes sense here. Assuming they don't swing trades, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay can wait until the second and third rounds to target big wideouts with passable starters in place.
21. Washington - Texas WR Limas Sweed
Sweed isn't your prototypical West Coast wideout, but he's closer than anyone else on Washington's roster. The flashy, confident senior would play split end in Jim Zorn's offense. Santana Moss will likely move to Deion Branch's flanker spot with Antwaan Randle El becoming Zorn's younger, speedier version of Bobby Engram.
22. Dallas - Tennessee State CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
DRC has become a little overrated during a stellar offseason. While he's an exceptional talent, offensive coordinators didn't game plan around him in even the Ohio Valley and those amazing ball skills brought Rodgers-Cromartie only two picks as a senior. Like his cousin, DRC needs a year as a sub-package corner before he's counted on for significant NFL snaps.
23. Pittsburgh - North Carolina DL Kentwan Balmer
Balmer would be a slight reach at No. 23, something Pittsburgh isn't known for doing. But the Steelers have a serious depth need behind two-gap ends Brett Keisel and Aaron Smith, who's coming off a biceps tear and just turned 32. At 6'5/308, Balmer is made to play end in the 3-4.
24. Tennessee - USC DE Lawrence Jackson
Jevon Kearse isn't going to get it done as an every-down replacement for 2007's combination of Travis LaBoy and Antwan Odom, who both left in free agency. Jackson had an up-and-down college career and needs to play in a rotation as a rookie.
25. Seattle - USC OLB Keith Rivers
We saw it with Lance Briggs at the start of free agency; 4-3 outside linebackers that don't rush the passer just aren't that valued in the NFL. Rivers will be a highly productive pro, but it'll be a big surprise if he goes in the top ten like some are predicting.
26. Jacksonville - Miami (FL) S Kenny Phillips
It's hard to imagine the Jaguars counting on Gerald Sensabaugh to start at strong safety considering he's coming off surgery on both shoulders. Phillips has experience at the free safety position as well, so if the Jags need to move Reggie Nelson to corner at some point, they'd have options.
27. San Diego - Boston College RT Gosder Cherilus
The Chargers plan to move current starting right tackle Jeromey Clary to guard when Mike Goff's contract expires in 2009. Cherilus protected Matt Ryan's blind side as a senior, but is a natural on the opposite end.
28. Dallas - California WR DeSean Jackson
The Cowboys have never seemed satisfied with Miles Austin on kick returns. Jackson would be a speed upgrade there and learn behind Terry Glenn for a few games before replacing him in the starting lineup down the stretch.
29. San Francisco - Auburn OLB Quentin Groves
The Niners aren't concerned about Groves' recent heart procedure, which is expected to make him healthier in the long run. San Francisco is desperate for a weak-side pass rush.
30. Green Bay - Arizona CB Antoine Cason
GM Ted Thompson loves big corners and Cason meets the profile at 6'1/190. The 2007 Jim Thorpe Award winner has few flaws in his game. Al Harris and Charles Woodson are getting old.
31. New York (NFC) - Tennessee LB Jerod Mayo
The Giants would be fine entering the season with Gerris Wilkinson on the weak side, but he needs more competition than Danny Clark. Mayo (6'1/242) can also play inside. Giants MLB Antonio Pierce turns 30 this season and Chase Blackburn isn't a long-term option behind him.
Notably left out: Arkansas RB Felix Jones, Penn State LB Dan Connor, Louisville QB Brian Brohm, Michigan QB Chad Henne, Purdue TE Dustin Keller, Delaware QB Joe Flacco, Miami (FL) DE Calais Campbell, Oklahoma LB Curtis Lofton, Michigan WR Mario Manningham, USC TE Fred Davis
