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Running away from an NFL trend
By Pat Kirwan
SuperBowl.com
(Jan. 10, 2005) -- I have been in and around football for my entire adult life. Like many people who have worked in football, I believed the ability to run the ball was the foundation of a good football team. I still believe it, but the game is changing. There is a trend that showed up last year in the playoffs and it is right back in the picture this season.
So what is it? In seven of the 11 playoff games last year, the winning team did not have a 100-yard rusher. Not that 100 yards is a benchmark for running the ball, but it was passing yardage that determined winning more than a 100-yard rusher.
Well, with four playoff games in the books for January 2005, not one winning team (Jets, Colts, Vikings or Rams) had a 100-yard rushing performance. In fact, nobody from a winning team rushed for more than 66 yards. The Vikings' leading rusher was Daunte Culpepper with 54 yards. Imagine, a scrambling QB -- who wanted to throw the ball but couldn't find an open receiver -- was his team's leading rusher!
Curtis Martin led the NFL in rushing this season with 1,697 yards, which is better than 100 yards per game, but in the Jets' playoff victory against the Chargers, he gained only 66 yards. Marshall Faulk had 55 yards to lead the Rams, and Edgerrin James accounted for 63 yards.
So in the past five rounds of the playoffs -- over a two-year period -- 11 of the 15 winning teams did not produce a 100-yard rusher. This piqued my interest. I decided to go back and look at the 2002 playoffs to see if things were different two years ago.
That season, only two of the 11 postseason games featured a 100-yard rusher for the winning team. So in the past nine rounds of the playoffs, 20 of the 26 winning teams did not produce a 100-yard rusher.
Clearly, establishing a running game has not the most critical factor to winning in the playoffs in recent history. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl after the 2002 season and did not even have a 1,000-yard rusher. Last season, the Patriots won the Super Bowl without a 1,000-yard back.
I don't know if the Super Bowl XXXIX champion will have a 1,000-yard back on its roster or not, but there's a pretty good chance he will not rush for 100 yards in any of the playoff games, especially when you consider that teams have won playoff games without a 100-yard rusher 77 percent of the time since January 2003.
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The question is: Why don't winning teams do it, and how are they winning?
I asked a few NFL coaches why teams don't seem to run the ball very well in the playoffs but still win games.
One offensive coordinator said, "Only the best quarterbacks are left when we get to the playoffs, and they have a better chance of beating you with their arm than by handing off."
A defensive coordinator suggested, "We are so wired to a team's running game after 16 games that we are very well prepared to stop most good backs."
A personnel man offered, "You get against a team like Indianapolis or Minnesota, and you can't score fast enough on the ground to stay with them."
All interesting points of view. That led me to think the game really has changed and it's OK to think the NFL really is a pass-to-set-up-the-run league.
A couple of teams still alive in the playoffs look like they can run the ball if they want to, but might shy away from it in the next round. The Jets ran for 120 yards on 20 first-down carries against the Chargers, but now they will face Pittsburgh's top-ranked rushing defense. The Steelers love to run the ball, which protects young Ben Roethlisberger well, but if the Jets can score points early, they might be tempted to abandon it.
As good of a running team as the Panthers were last year, even they cracked the 100-yard rushing mark in only one of their three playoff games.
Might Pittsburgh's defense force the Jets to turn away from Curtis Martin?
The Colts don't have a very good run defense, but their offense scores so fast. That often means opponents are taken out of their run offense and have to play catch-up. In 16 regular-season games, the Colts scored on their first possession 10 times, and their second seven times. Before you know it, you could be losing 14-0 to Peyton Manning, and it's catch-up time.
Heck, I think Michael Vick, Culpepper and maybe even Donovan McNabb -- who's now without Terrell Owens -- have the best chance to crack the century mark with the way they can scramble.
The game is changing, and the wild-card winners from this past week are a good reminder of how the game is being won these days. Remember when the old adage was, "Most passing records are set in losing efforts"? The four winning quarterbacks combined for 1,333 yards -- an average of 333 yards.
More than ever, throwing the ball seems to be the formula to winning in the playoffs.
By Pat Kirwan
SuperBowl.com
(Jan. 10, 2005) -- I have been in and around football for my entire adult life. Like many people who have worked in football, I believed the ability to run the ball was the foundation of a good football team. I still believe it, but the game is changing. There is a trend that showed up last year in the playoffs and it is right back in the picture this season.
So what is it? In seven of the 11 playoff games last year, the winning team did not have a 100-yard rusher. Not that 100 yards is a benchmark for running the ball, but it was passing yardage that determined winning more than a 100-yard rusher.
Well, with four playoff games in the books for January 2005, not one winning team (Jets, Colts, Vikings or Rams) had a 100-yard rushing performance. In fact, nobody from a winning team rushed for more than 66 yards. The Vikings' leading rusher was Daunte Culpepper with 54 yards. Imagine, a scrambling QB -- who wanted to throw the ball but couldn't find an open receiver -- was his team's leading rusher!
Curtis Martin led the NFL in rushing this season with 1,697 yards, which is better than 100 yards per game, but in the Jets' playoff victory against the Chargers, he gained only 66 yards. Marshall Faulk had 55 yards to lead the Rams, and Edgerrin James accounted for 63 yards.
So in the past five rounds of the playoffs -- over a two-year period -- 11 of the 15 winning teams did not produce a 100-yard rusher. This piqued my interest. I decided to go back and look at the 2002 playoffs to see if things were different two years ago.
That season, only two of the 11 postseason games featured a 100-yard rusher for the winning team. So in the past nine rounds of the playoffs, 20 of the 26 winning teams did not produce a 100-yard rusher.
Clearly, establishing a running game has not the most critical factor to winning in the playoffs in recent history. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl after the 2002 season and did not even have a 1,000-yard rusher. Last season, the Patriots won the Super Bowl without a 1,000-yard back.
I don't know if the Super Bowl XXXIX champion will have a 1,000-yard back on its roster or not, but there's a pretty good chance he will not rush for 100 yards in any of the playoff games, especially when you consider that teams have won playoff games without a 100-yard rusher 77 percent of the time since January 2003.
NFL Network
NFL Network
Analysis, opinions, features and more!
Field Pass
Listen LIVE to NFL games, plus watch video news and features of your favorite team.
The question is: Why don't winning teams do it, and how are they winning?
I asked a few NFL coaches why teams don't seem to run the ball very well in the playoffs but still win games.
One offensive coordinator said, "Only the best quarterbacks are left when we get to the playoffs, and they have a better chance of beating you with their arm than by handing off."
A defensive coordinator suggested, "We are so wired to a team's running game after 16 games that we are very well prepared to stop most good backs."
A personnel man offered, "You get against a team like Indianapolis or Minnesota, and you can't score fast enough on the ground to stay with them."
All interesting points of view. That led me to think the game really has changed and it's OK to think the NFL really is a pass-to-set-up-the-run league.
A couple of teams still alive in the playoffs look like they can run the ball if they want to, but might shy away from it in the next round. The Jets ran for 120 yards on 20 first-down carries against the Chargers, but now they will face Pittsburgh's top-ranked rushing defense. The Steelers love to run the ball, which protects young Ben Roethlisberger well, but if the Jets can score points early, they might be tempted to abandon it.
As good of a running team as the Panthers were last year, even they cracked the 100-yard rushing mark in only one of their three playoff games.
Might Pittsburgh's defense force the Jets to turn away from Curtis Martin?
The Colts don't have a very good run defense, but their offense scores so fast. That often means opponents are taken out of their run offense and have to play catch-up. In 16 regular-season games, the Colts scored on their first possession 10 times, and their second seven times. Before you know it, you could be losing 14-0 to Peyton Manning, and it's catch-up time.
Heck, I think Michael Vick, Culpepper and maybe even Donovan McNabb -- who's now without Terrell Owens -- have the best chance to crack the century mark with the way they can scramble.
The game is changing, and the wild-card winners from this past week are a good reminder of how the game is being won these days. Remember when the old adage was, "Most passing records are set in losing efforts"? The four winning quarterbacks combined for 1,333 yards -- an average of 333 yards.
More than ever, throwing the ball seems to be the formula to winning in the playoffs.