Running Back in '08 Draft? - Read This!

virginiacowboy

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While watching LSU and Arkansas Friday I pondered whether we should do all that we can to move up and take McFadden. Well, reading this article should add fuel to the debate. I know Vela has been in the CB camp rather than bet-the-farm on a running back.

Here is the article from today's NY Times:

November 25, 2007
Running the Ball: Anyone Can Do It?
By JOHN BRANCH

The debate has simmered for a decade, at least since the Denver Broncos began making a habit of turning unsung players into 1,000-yard rushers. Other championship-caliber teams, like the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots, began casting aside top running backs, finding younger and cheaper alternatives with no regrets.

But the question of whether N.F.L. running backs are overvalued — generally not worth the attention and money paid to them — has intensified in recent weeks, as a number of unheralded and little-known players have taken leading roles with their teams.

Running backs may be the most interchangeable parts of a football team. Mel Kiper Jr., the N.F.L. draft expert for ESPN, said he would never choose one in the first round.

“I’ve been saying this for 30 years,” Kiper said. “The easiest position to find a player is running back.”

Evidence is building weekly, it seems. The second-leading rusher in the league, Pittsburgh’s Willie Parker, was undrafted. Four of the top five rushers in games two weekends ago were undrafted. The Green Bay Packers are 10-1 after Thursday’s victory against Detroit, thanks in part to 101 yards from the starting running back Ryan Grant.

He, too, was undrafted. Signed by the Giants in 2005, he did not play a snap in two seasons and was shipped to the Packers on Sept. 1 for a late-round draft pick. The Giants saw no room for him among their top four running backs.

His success in Green Bay is the latest exhibit showing that the margin between starting running backs and their backups may be the slimmest of any position on the field.

Before the season began, running backs like Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Shaun Alexander, Reggie Bush, Steven Jackson and Rudi Johnson were among those deemed invaluable by franchise owners and fantasy football participants. None are among this season’s top 20 rushing leaders.

“I think you have three to five running backs that just can’t be replaced,” Giants linebacker Antonio Pierce said, declining to name them. “Rest of the guys, you know how this league is, every year you hear about a breakout runner.”

On Sunday, the Giants (7-3) and the Minnesota Vikings (4-6) will put the issue on full display at Giants Stadium. The Giants are tapping their depth after the retirement of Tiki Barber and injuries to his top two replacements. The Vikings will probably be without the rookie sensation Adrian Peterson, the league’s top rusher.

Peterson was the seventh overall choice in April’s draft. Through eight games, it appeared to be a brilliant pick. Peterson had 1,036 yards and set the N.F.L. record with 296 yards in a game against the Chargers.

But Peterson injured his knee Nov. 11. Chester Taylor played last week against the Raiders and gained 164 yards. It was the eighth-highest total for a running back this season; Peterson had two bigger games.

Taylor, a sixth-round choice of the Baltimore Ravens in 2002, never gained more than 714 yards in a season until the Vikings signed him as a free agent in 2006. Then he gained 1,216 — not enough, apparently, to persuade the Vikings to pass on Peterson on draft day.

“In this day and age, it is such a high-impact position that you better have a few of them,” Vikings Coach Brad Childress said of running backs. He added, “If you are a team that wants to run the football, I don’t think there is a downside to having a one-two punch.”

The Giants moved to that approach this season. The Giants replaced Barber with a combination of Brandon Jacobs (a fourth-round draft choice in 2005), Derrick Ward (a seventh-round choice of the Jets in 2004), and Reuben Droughns (a third-round choice of the Lions in 2000, now with his fourth team).

Jacobs and Ward have missed games with injuries, and Droughns is expected to start against the Vikings. Despite the shuffling, the Giants are seventh in the league in rushing — where they were a year ago through 10 games.

Giants General Manager Jerry Reese said he would consider taking a running back with a high draft choice, but he acknowledged it was an extra-risky gamble, partly because of the frequent and violent collisions backs absorb.

“You always want to have a game breaker at the running back position, but it’s always a roll of the dice,” Reese said. “You get a guy like the Peterson kid, and the guy is phenomenal, but he goes down with a knee injury because he gets hit a lot.”

Droughns was buried deep in the Broncos’ roster in 2004 — “a special-teams guy,” he said — before injuries boosted his role. He rushed for 1,240 yards and is now one of seven players to have led the Broncos in rushing the last 10 seasons. Not one was a first-round draft pick.

“He is not a chopped-liver guy,” Childress said of Droughns. He used the expression to describe Taylor, too.

But running backs, generally, have been losing cachet for years. Twelve times from 1970 to 1990, at least six running backs were chosen in the first 32 picks of the draft. Since 1991, no more than five running backs were chosen among the top 32.

The reasons are complex. N.F.L. offenses rely on receivers more than they used to. Successful teams have shown that there is a disposable quality to running backs. Struggling franchises have shown that Hall of Fame backs (including Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Earl Campbell, O. J. Simpson and Gale Sayers) do not always bring titles.

Increasingly, short careers are not conducive to the large upfront bonuses that top draft picks receive.

Five running backs were chosen with the first overall choice from 1977 to 1986, but there has not been one since Cincinnati selected Ki-Jana Carter in 1995. Carter blew out his knee on the third carry of his first preseason game. He gained 1,127 yards over an injury-riddled career that ended in 2003.

That has not entirely scared teams away from running backs. Fourteen have been chosen with top-10 picks since, varying in success from Lawrence Phillips (sixth in 1996) to LaDainian Tomlinson (fifth in 2001).

And despite the run of successful backup backs this year, 7 of the season’s top 10 rushers are former first-round choices. It should lead to more discussion over how to gauge highly acclaimed running backs.

Kiper sees them as fool’s gold. From memory, he recited names and draft rounds of more than a dozen unheralded running backs who ended up with top-tier careers — players like Barber, Curtis Martin and Terrell Davis.

Even the men who chase the backs do not see a wide disparity in talent.

“If you don’t look at the number on the jersey, you usually can’t tell who’s in there,” Giants defensive tackle Barry Cofield said.
 

theogt

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I can't believe people actually get paid to write articles this dumb.
 

CF74

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This argument could be made about any position:shoot4:
 

tunahelper

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I like Felix Jones from Arkansas. He would be like Reggie Bush for us.
 

Chuck 54

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If we give up extra first day picks for McFadden, then we are truly stupid. I wouldn't give up our draft picks for Peterson, and he's already had some great days, though mostly against crappy teams...and don't look now, but Chester Taylor is having those same huge games.

Our team needs WR's and CB's much more than we need a top of the draft RB.
 

jterrell

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Rbs were far more valuable when teams actually based their attacks on the running game.

It actually now more important to have a runner that can block and catch then to have a great pure rush guy.

RB would be a day 2 concern were I a GM.

There are always special talents you can't ignore but overall the position is largely interchangeable.

The leading rusher thus far this week? Kolby or maybe its Kobey Lewis of the Chiefs.
Oh.. and the Chiefs lost the game.
 

bbgun

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I don't think the writer (or Kiper, for that matter) would condemn a team for drafting a RB in the first round. But forfeiting multiple picks to draft one? Uh, yes.
 

NextGenBoys

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wayne motley;1788453 said:
If we give up extra first day picks for McFadden, then we are truly stupid. I wouldn't give up our draft picks for Peterson, and he's already had some great days, though mostly against crappy teams...and don't look now, but Chester Taylor is having those same huge games.

Our team needs WR's and CB's much more than we need a top of the draft RB.

When Chester Taylor breaks the NFL single game rushing record, and has two games of over 225 yards, then you can compare the two.

Untill then, the comparison is horrid. Not to mention Peterson is a rookie.

With the line the Vikings have, a lot of running backs would have huge days. Only special backs, which Peterson is, would have the monster games he has put up. If we can get a difference maker at running back, I'm all for it. Just as long as we dont have to give up the farm.
 

big dog cowboy

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No way I give up extra picks to get McFadden. All along I've said I would keep Julius and go WR and CB next April with those two #1's before I'd give up the farm for McFadden.
 

Thick 'N Hearty

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This is one of the dumbest articles I've read in a long time. "Don't draft Ladanian Tomlinson in the first round. He might not be that good." What kind of crap is that.

There are RBs that fall every year for a host of reasons that could've gone in the first round. But, the do fall and end up showing they were first round talent to begin with.

As far as Kiper goes, don't you think it's contradictory for him to say he'd never draft one in the first round, but say 3-4 will go in the first round just about every year? What an idiot.
 

BHendri5

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I would take McFadden if he were there for us when our time to pick came, or if we could make a trade not a high draft pick, but for a current player like Roy Williams and a 6th/7th round pick, or late future draft pick.

If not, then there will be plenty of RBs coming out. Barber would be our starter, a player like Slaton, Felix Jones,Allen Patrick or someone similar that got true wiggle and hands.

Not a player like Julius who has no wiggle and hands, but some seem to think he does.

If not, then we can take a player like Ray Rice, Johnathan Stewart, my point is there will be a lot of good RBs coming out, with a good/great O-line an average QB/RB will look like an allstar.
 

Future

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big dog cowboy;1788538 said:
No way I give up extra picks to get McFadden. All along I've said I would keep Julius and go WR and CB next April with those two #1's before I'd give up the farm for McFadden.
Thats what I would like to do. We've got a great run game already. I think resigning Julius for less than starter money is a pipe dream though.

tunahelper;1788439 said:
I like Felix Jones from Arkansas. He would be like Reggie Bush for us.
He's the guy we should target mid-late first round I think if we do decide to go RB.
 

FLcowboy

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Interesting theory, and one I might agree with to some extent. As I watched McFadden the other night, I kept wondering how he would do in the NFL, and frankly, I didn't see the power runner that he would have to be. A lot of his gains were misdirection plays, or options. How many direct snaps is he going to get in the NFL. I sure liked his speed though, once he got past the line.
 

sbark

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JimmyJohnson had the positions tagged to Salary cap ............in his 4-3 LB'rs were the low on the totem pole

looks like most teams in the workings of the Cap, save money in the rb position..........

I'd say: Spend money on the OLine...........Protects your big money QB position and lets a mid round rb still get the yards............Big money WR position performs...............

if a rb worthy of the pik is there, fine, but dont mortgage the farm to get him, too many other needs arise or are already there
 

NextGenBoys

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If somehow we could get DeShhawn Jackson and Felix Jones I'd be estatic.

Jones would be the PERFECT fit for Barber. A really quick, one cut runner who has breakaway speed and a little wiggle.

Oh my god our offense would be insane next year. Maybe Patriots good??
 
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Dallas won't be foolish enough to give up the farm for McFadden... I believe they will address CB and WR needs first.
 
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