Runs on 1st & 10 (2014 v 2015)

[percyhoward]

Average gain
1st & 10
2014 5.2
2015 4.8

all other runs
2014 3.9
2015 4.4

The average team gains 0.3 more yards on 1st & 10, which is pretty close to the 0.4-yard advantage we had in 2015.

Nothing close to the 1.3-yard advantage we had in 2014.

Why was our running game so dominating on 1st and 10 in 2014, and so average on the other runs?

Why did we lose this advantage in 2015?

 

[Beats_By_Zeke]

Romo?

 

[NeonDeion21]

Average gain
1st & 10
2014 5.2
2015 4.8

all other runs
2014 3.9
2015 4.4

The average team gains 0.3 more yards on 1st & 10, which is pretty close to the 0.4-yard advantage we had in 2015.

Nothing close to the 1.3-yard advantage we had in 2014.

Why was our running game so dominating on 1st and 10 in 2014, and so average on the other runs?

Why did we lose this advantage in 2015?

However, look how bad Dallas ran on 1st and 10 during December in 2014.

 

[percyhoward]

However, look how bad Dallas ran on 1st and 10 during December in 2014.

Maybe some similarity in the way defenses played us on 1st and 10 between late 2014 and most of 2015?

 

[robjay04]

Maybe some similarity in the way defenses played us on 1st and 10 between late 2014 and most of 2015?

Correct, teams didn't have to worry about a passing game with the rubbish we had playing QB. Defenses were one dimensional.

 

[big dog cowboy]

In 2015 the defenses we faced knew the ball wasn't going more than 10 yards downfield. That really shortens the amount of space you have to defend.

 

[percyhoward]

Correct, teams didn't have to worry about a passing game with the rubbish we had playing QB. Defenses were one dimensional.

I think this is it, but I was looking for some evidence (about Dec 2014) from Neon, who's an all-22 guy.

 

[percyhoward]

Romo?

I'm with you all the way, but then there's this...

all other runs
2014 3.9
2015 4.4

 

[Toruk_Makto]

I'm with you all the way, but then there's this...

all other runs
2014 3.9
2015 4.4

More 3rd and shorts in 2014? More goaline runs in 2014? More situations grinding out the clock in wins in 2014? More explosive backs than Murray in 2015? Combo of all these things?

 

[noshame]

Because on all other downs this year we (at times) gave up trying to pass and ran. For instance on a 3rd and long there were times we just ran, so picking up 5-6yds was easy. Conversely in '14 we had huge success running on first down leaving many 2nd and short, sure we'd run and get a first, but teams would b playing run and stop us for a gain of 3. So we gain a couple and get the first, but the run would average poorly.

 

[DandyDon1722]

I think this is it, but I was looking for some evidence (about Dec 2014) from Neon, who's an all-22 guy.

Percy, maybe in the all-22 tape you can see LB's in gaps and safeties moved up. It's just a guess but the line of scrimmage seemed awfully crowded this year.

I would also add that although these numbers are an indictment of the offense per se - I think they reflect a pretty decent job by the offensive line, especially in the all other runs category. Everybody in the world knew we couldn't pass effectively which put a huge burden them the entire year.

It's another reason why I'm bullish on next season with Tony's return.

 

[percyhoward]

Because on all other downs this year we (at times) gave up trying to pass and ran. For instance on a 3rd and long there were times we just ran, so picking up 5-6yds was easy. Conversely in '14 we had huge success running on first down leaving many 2nd and short, sure we'd run and get a first, but teams would b playing run and stop us for a gain of 3. So we gain a couple and get the first, but the run would average poorly.

I think this explains the league-wide advantage of +0.3 yards on 1st and 10 very nicely. I don't think it explains why Dallas was able to average more yards on non-1st-and-10 plays in 2015 than in 2014. We actually ran on 3rd and long more than twice as often in 2014.

 

[Beats_By_Zeke]

I honestly think that we had more longer runs then we did in 2014. McFadden and broke off more long runs than Murray did. It's just that Murray ran it 400 times.

I'm with you all the way, but then there's this...

all other runs
2014 3.9
2015 4.4

 

[percyhoward]

Excluding QB kneels, which we had a lot of in 2014.

2014
1st and 10
289 rushes 1540 yards
all other runs
204 rushes 827 yards (4.1)

2015
1st and 10
213 rushes 1069 yards
all other runs
187 rushes 827 yards (4.4)

The difference goes down from 0.5 yards to 0.3 yards, but 2015 is still better.

 

[Oh_Canada]

Tells me McFadden was pretty good. Noshame's theory has some merit, just don't know the sample size.

 

[percyhoward]

More 3rd and shorts in 2014? More goaline runs in 2014? More situations grinding out the clock in wins in 2014? More explosive backs than Murray in 2015? Combo of all these things?

Lots of good suggestions there. Thanks.

These are all the non 1st-and-10 runs, btw.

Removing short-yardage and goal line runs gives 2015 an even bigger edge.
2014: 4.2
2015: 4.8

Removing runs in 4th qtr, > one-score lead almost closes the gap, but 2015 is still better.
2014: 4.4
2015: 4.5

Removing all the 20+ yard runs yields similar results, but again 2015 is better.
2014: 3.7
2015: 3.8

 

[NeonDeion21]

I think this is it, but I was looking for some evidence (about Dec 2014) from Neon, who's an all-22 guy.

We had a very high run tendency on first down in 2014, regardless of what the defensive alignment was. On top of that, Murray really wore down by the end of the season.

 

[jobberone]

Average gain
1st & 10
2014 5.2
2015 4.8

all other runs
2014 3.9
2015 4.4

The average team gains 0.3 more yards on 1st & 10, which is pretty close to the 0.4-yard advantage we had in 2015.

Nothing close to the 1.3-yard advantage we had in 2014.

Why was our running game so dominating on 1st and 10 in 2014, and so average on the other runs?

Why did we lose this advantage in 2015?

Romo, Romo he's our man if he can't do it nobody can!!

Sorry, I had to edit out @BrAinPaiNt and put another Cheerleader in due to copyright restrictions.

 

[jobberone]

We had a very high run tendency on first down in 2014, regardless of what the defensive alignment was. On top of that, Murray really wore down by the end of the season.

Teams generally did try to cheat in the box on first but Romo generally got them to back out of it eventually and play us more honestly. I .do think Garrett is a tad stubborn at times in not throwing it sooner in those situations. He generally just establishes the pattern then works off it. I don't like wasting a possession trying to run into defenses selling out on the run.

 

[percyhoward]

We had a very high run tendency on first down in 2014, regardless of what the defensive alignment was. On top of that, Murray really wore down by the end of the season.

Murray, Sep-Nov
1st and 10: 180 for 994 (5.5)
all other runs: 112 for 451 (4.0)

Murray in Dec
1st and 10: 62 for 281 (4.5)
all other runs: 43 for 137 (3.2)

In December, Murray still averaged half-a-yard per carry better on his 1st-and-10 runs (4.5) than he had averaged on his "other" runs earlier in the season (4.0). I had understood you to be saying that defenses started loading the box more on 1st and 10 late in the season, and was curious if you have any numbers about the alignments we ran against. That's the thing that you really can't find anywhere unless you watch the all-22 and make note of it specifically. Got anything like that?