Here's what we know: Belichick and helper Scott Pioli landed Brady in his first draft (2000), then crushed the next three (2001-03). Nailing picks is the NFL's biggest ongoing advantage, especially after the first round; it's the best way to circumvent the salary cap, by getting cheap labor. Those four drafts directly set up the 2003-04 seasons: 34 wins, 4 losses and two Super Bowl titles. Not an accident.
The following two drafts (2004-05) went fine. Nothing special. Things fell apart in 2006 when only kicker Stephen Gostkowski panned out. The Pats took Laurence Maroney over D'Angelo Williams, traded up from No. 52 (Greg Jennings) to No. 36 (WR Chad Jackson, a bust) and chose tight end David Thomas over Owen Daniels. Egads. As far as drafts go, this was Belichick's "Funny People" -- such a mess that you almost want to pretend it never happened.
The next three drafts looked worse than they actually were because they lost the Spygate pick (No. 32 in 2008) and dealt two picks for Wes Welker and Randy Moss, but from 2007-09, only Mayo has emerged as an impact player, and only three current starters (Gostkowski, Mayo and Brandon Meriweather) came from the last four Patriots drafts (even though the team had three firsts, six seconds and five thirds over that time). When seventh-rounder Julian Edelman emerged as Welker Jr. this summer, I remember being shocked that we finally struck pay dirt with a non-first-rounder. Not a good sign.
Did Belichick lose his touch, or has it just been a prolonged cold streak? Like with so many other teams, you could play the "damn, we could have had so-and-so" game with every Pats draft from 2005 to 2009 -- Frank Gore, Justin Tuck, Santonio Holmes, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jon Beason, Steve Slaton, etc. (it's a long list) -- but Belichick's Patriots were never "like so many other teams." It's a little sobering. The last few years, he's been drafting by need instead of just taking the best players, which he never used to do. And he spends so much time flipping picks that I reached the "can't we just stand pat and take the best guy?" point two years ago. Just this spring, instead of moving up 2-3 spots to grab game-breaker Percy Harvin or just taking tackle Michael Oher at No. 23 (now a staple of Baltimore's excellent offensive line), the Patriots traded down twice, picking up a second and two thirds (none of whom are starting). Quantity over quality yet again.
Contrast that to Baltimore's success over that same 2006-09 stretch: With four firsts, three seconds and seven thirds, they landed seven starters (Oher, Ray Rice, Joe Flacco, Chris Chester, Ben Grubbs, Haloti Ngata, Tavares Gooden) and three more in later rounds (Le'Ron McClain, Sam Koch, Dawan Landry). In a related story, the Ravens might be the best AFC team right now. And it's not like the Pats were making up for botched picks in free agency; they continue to eschew big-salary guys and gravitate towards on-their-last-legs veterans (Shawn Springs, Fred Taylor, etc.) and smart bargain pickups (Leigh Bodden, Sammy Morris, etc.). Of the key players on the 2009 team, only Mayo is younger than 27.
(Gulp.)
And so we have to go here ...
