TheSport78
The Excellence of Execution
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Anybody really frustrated with his play-calling on 2nd and long situations?
On 2nd-and-10, a play only counts as successful if it gains 6 or more yards, yet league data shows that draw plays almost never get there, and that’s exactly why Schottenheimer’s repeated 2nd-and-10 draw calls are so frustrating. Across recent seasons, runs on 2nd-and-10 have about a 32–35% success rate, but draws specifically drop to just 22–27%, making them one of the least efficient choices in the sport. EPA paints the same picture: 2nd-and-10 passes sit around neutral or slightly positive, while runs average –0.15 EPA, and draws sink even further to –0.20 to –0.28 EPA, consistently putting the offense behind schedule and setting up predictable 3rd-and-long situations. Modern defenses, which are built on two-high shells, fast-trigger safeties, match rules, and simulated pressures, are no longer tricked by slow-developing draw concepts, which is why the play underperforms almost universally. That’s why Schottenheimer’s insistence on dialing it up in obvious passing situations feels so outdated and counterproductive; with all the data and structural disadvantages working against it, calling a 2nd-and-10 draw in normal game flow is essentially handing the defense a free down. Maybe it's the ghost of "MartyBall?"
On 2nd-and-10, a play only counts as successful if it gains 6 or more yards, yet league data shows that draw plays almost never get there, and that’s exactly why Schottenheimer’s repeated 2nd-and-10 draw calls are so frustrating. Across recent seasons, runs on 2nd-and-10 have about a 32–35% success rate, but draws specifically drop to just 22–27%, making them one of the least efficient choices in the sport. EPA paints the same picture: 2nd-and-10 passes sit around neutral or slightly positive, while runs average –0.15 EPA, and draws sink even further to –0.20 to –0.28 EPA, consistently putting the offense behind schedule and setting up predictable 3rd-and-long situations. Modern defenses, which are built on two-high shells, fast-trigger safeties, match rules, and simulated pressures, are no longer tricked by slow-developing draw concepts, which is why the play underperforms almost universally. That’s why Schottenheimer’s insistence on dialing it up in obvious passing situations feels so outdated and counterproductive; with all the data and structural disadvantages working against it, calling a 2nd-and-10 draw in normal game flow is essentially handing the defense a free down. Maybe it's the ghost of "MartyBall?"
