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http://www.gbnreport.com/scoutsnotebook.htm
THE SCOUT'S NOTEBOOK
WHO'S HOT; WHO'S NOT AND WHAT ELSE IS COOKING FOR 2010 DRAFT
by Colin Lindsay, Editor and Publisher, Great Blue North Draft Report
March 16, 2010
Clock ticking on 2010 draft … There are just over 5 weeks to go until the picks start to come off the board at the 2010 draft and usually at this point in time value boards around the league really start to come into focus. And that certainly appears to be the case this year, at least as it relates to the very top of the board. At the same time, though, it appears that there is still a lot of sorting out to be done among the 10-15 slots. On the one hand, there are a lot of talented players in the upcoming draft, however, there are also still a lot of red flags that have yet to be addressed.
Top 5 pretty settled … Obviously there will be some exceptions around the league; there will also be some variation in how the individual players are ranked, however, it appears that there is a pretty solid consensus around the NFL that the top5 players in the 2010 draft class include DTs Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska and Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, Tennessee safety Eric Berry and Oklahoma State OT Russell Okung. Indeed, unless a team like Washington takes a flyer on Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen, there’s a very good likelihood that the five will be the first players off the board next month in some order.
After those first 5 players, though, things start to get a little murky. Indeed, there is a good possibility that a lot of teams are having trouble the 6-10 box on their value boards. Iowa OT Brian Bulaga appears to have comfortably established himself as the solid #2 player at the position behind Oklahoma State’s Okung and has likely earned a top 10 grade. Georgia Tech DE Derrick Morgan also likely rates a top 6-10 grade on many team’s value boards, but it may not be totally unanimous as he lacks elite-level closing speed. Then there’s Notre Dame’s Clausen who seems to be all over the place on boards around the league. Some teams like his arm strength and confidence and have him rated as either a top 10 prospect, or at least not that far off. Others, though, are concerned about his lack of consistency and don’t have him rated quite that high. Indeed, if any player seems susceptible to the kind of painful draft day wait experienced by former Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn back in 2007, it’s his replacement with the Irish.
And after that, it seems there are almost as many questions as answers. Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant, for example, clearly has top 10 - and maybe even top 5 physical potential - but character issues have dropped his stock like a stone. On the other hand, there are no character issues with either Alabama MLB Rolando McClain or Florida CB Joe Haden, both of whom were considered almost locks to be top 10 picks this year not so long ago, however, revelations about a non-football illness, as well as the fact that he doesn‘t quite have prototype 3-down foot speed have hurt McClain, while Haden‘s stock took a hit when he posted some very disappointing 40 times in the 4.6 range at last month‘s scouting combine in Indianapolis. Its not expected that either player drops al that far, but both likely will at least slip out of the top 10.
As the top RB in this year’s draft field, and as one of the fastest players in the country period, Clemson RB C.J. Spiller has moved up into the top half of the first round and could ultimately sneak into the top 10 on draft day, however, the fact that he’s under 200 pounds and seldom had to carry the load all by himself with the Tigers is also likely going to make him something of a reach were he to be selected too early on April 22nd. Same story for OTs Trent Williams of Oklahoma and Rutgers’ Anthony Davis, both of whom could be top 10 picks this coming April, if no other reason than they both can play he valued LT spot. Again, however, there are issues with both. Williams, for example, has eye-popping athletic ability, but still plays stiff and somewhat mechanically, while Davis, a prototype wide-body with long arms and reasonably quick feet, isn’t very athletic and may be one of the least mature prospects in the entire draft. And so it goes. South Florida DE Jason Pierre-Paul is another 2010 prospect with top 10 physical potential, but barely half a season of major college football experience may not be enough to justify a top 10-15 pick.
On the other hand, once past the top 10, the number of players at the next levels tends to grow exponentially. Indeed, while there are may be as few as 7-8 players carrying legitimate top 10 grades, there may be as many as 40 players with potential first round grades. Obviouly, boards around the NFL are going to differ significantly, however, below is the current GBN Value Board. In fact, value boards are a far better schemata with which to considerhow players are ranked than a pure numrerical listing 1-100 or whatever. Indeed, as a general rule good teams always take a player from the last row from on which players are still available, but match needs by taking the player that best fits either their needs or what they are hoping to build from that last row.
Top of GBN Value Board
ROW 1 (Top 5A)
DT Ndamukong Sun
QB Sam Bradford
ROW 2 (Top 5B)
DT Gerald McCoy FS Eric Berry
OT Russell Okung
ROW 3 (Top 6-10) OT Brian Bulaga
DE Derrick Morgan
ROW 4 (Top 11-15)
QB Jimmy Clausen
RB C.J. Spiller WR Dez Bryant OT Trent Williams LB Rolando McClain CB Joe Haden
ROW 5 (Top 15-20)
OT Anthony Davis OT Bruce Campbell OG Mike Iupati DE Jason Pierre-Paul FS Taylor Mays FS Earl Thomas DE Everson Griffin
ROW 6 (Top 21-30)
WR Golden Tate
WR Regus Benn TE Jermaine Gresham OT Charles Brown RB Ryan Mathews RB Jonathan Dwyer C Maurkice Pouncey
DT Dan Williams
DT Brian Price
DT Jared Odrick
DT Terrence Cody DE Brandon Graham
DE Carlos Dunlap
DE/LB Jerry Hughes
LB Sergio Kindle
CB Kyle Wilson
CB Devin McCourty
Who's hot ... Missouri LB Sean Weatherspon started the year rated as a potential top 15 prospect for the 2010 draft, but slipped well back following a somewhat pedestrian senior season. Weatherspoon, though, has been on a role with a strong off-season and appears to have made up most of the ground he lost during the season. Meanwhile, Tennessee DT Dan Williams appears to have separated himself from Brian Price and Jared Odrick in the race to be the third ranked DT this year behind Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy. And with a number of teams looking for some size, strength and intensity along the interior of their defensive front fours, it wouldn't be a shock to see Williams, a 325-pounder with explosive first step and a great motor for a big man, get a call as early as the early 20s.
<>And speaking of DTs, Texas DT Lamarr Houston, an athletic 300-plus pounder, who like Tennessee's Williams has a solid work ethic, has made a case this off-season that he should be included in that group of excellent second-tier DTs in the middle of the second round. Meanwhile, for a long time, the 2010 draft looked like it could be a CB wasteland after Joe Haden of Florida, however, both CB Kyle Wilson of Boise State and CB Devin McCourty have had great pre-draft workouts. Wilson, in particular, had a super Senior Bowl and followed it up with a solid combine and could ultimately get some late top 20 consideration this April. For his part, McCourty look like a solid late first rounder, especially given the importance of the position on draft day. There is a similar story at RB which was not thought to be that strong this year, but a number of backs have stepped up this winter. Leading the way is RB Ryan Mathews of Fresno State, the nation's leading rusher in 2009 with a special combination of size, speed and agility, who could start to get some consideration somewhere between to 20th and 25th picks this year.
Honorable mentions among players moving up: Indiana T/G Rodger Saffold, Virginia CB/S Chris Cook; Ohio WR Taylor Pice; RBs Ben Tate of Auburn and Tennessee's Montario Hardesty; BYU TE Dennis Pitta, Boston College C Matt Tenant and Colorado State OG Shelley Snmith.
Other guys to watch: Arizona DT Earl Mitchell has never gotten much national pub, but he's a near 300-pounder with sub-4.8 quickness and an improving work ethic. Texas Christian T/G Marshall Newhouse is a little short (6-3) to be an OT at the next level, but he's a 320-pounder with real quickness and athleticism; plus he got plenty of pass protection reps in the high-octane TCUoffense. WR is one of those positions with almsot as many questions as answers, but a couple of wideouts to keep an eye include Carlton Mitchell of South Florida and UConn's Marcus Easley, both of whom are big receivers with real speed.
Didn't you guys used to be ... Nobody in the 2010 draft class have been picked over more than Florida QB Tim Tebow, USC safety Taylor Mays and Alabama NT Terrence Cody. As pro teams have gone back to the tapes to verify workout observations they have seen that all three guys make plays. Of course, it didn't hurt that Cody has lost a bunch of weight since his disastrous Senior Bowl appearnce, that Mays as expected had a great combine workout, and that Tebow is at least making the effort to refine his throwing motion. At the same time, it would be a stretch to suggest that any of the three is rocketing up draft boards around the league, but the sense is that all three have at least stopped the bleeding and are heading in the right direction.
Who's not ... Florida State CB Patrick Robinson was often inconsistent in college, but was considered to have the athleticsim to outrun a lot of mistakes, however, he was barely able to crack the 4.6 mark for the 40 at the combine and just didn't look at all quick or instinctive and as a result could drop into the second day of this year's draft. Same story for Michigan CB Donovan Warren, who was even slower at the combine, although he did put up better numbers at his pro day, however, those pesky combine numbers have a way of staying with people. UMass Vlad Ducasse made a big, both literally and figuratively, splash at the Senior Bowl with his size and strength, but hasn't shown much in the way of agility since; indeed, more than one edge rusher has made it look like his cleats were nailed to the turf such that he was being pegged as a pure RT or even OG prospect. For the record, though, the assessment of Ducasse is very similar to that that plagued former Oklahoma OT Phil Loadholt last year; Loadholt, though, went on to have an excellent year starting all season at RT for Minnesota. Meanwhile, both Kansas WR Dezmon Briscoe and Duke DT Vince Oghabaase, both of whom have next-level size, but both have also been very slow in pre-draft workouts. Meanwhile, there is growing concern about the lingering effects of the back injury that forced Arizona TE Rob Gronkowski to miss the 2009 season after he didn't participate in the Wildcats' pro day last week. Gronkowski has a private workout scheduled for later in the month, but it may come too late to erase all doubt.
Today's trivia question is what do Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant, Rutgers' OT Anthony Davis, Florida DE Carlos Dunalp, Oklahoma State CB Perrish Cox, Syracuse WR Mike Williams and Abilene Christian OT Tony Washington have in common. The answer, of course, is that each has seen his draft grade slide in some fashior or other because of off-field issues and questions about attitude and work ethic. Bryant, Davis and Dunlap, though, are still likely to be first round picks this year, although questions persist. Bryant, for example, reportedly did a nice job explaining away how he came to be suspended for most the season at the combine, but then took another couple of steps back when he opted not to work out at the Oklahoma State pro day despite the fact a literal who's-who of NFL personnel types were there, many of whom specifically to watch him. Same story for Rutgers' Davis who reminded pro teams why he is considered to be one of the most immature players in the 2010 draft class when he too refused to participate in the team's pro day, again with a number of pro scouts in the stands just to see him. No one has anything on Oklahoma State's Cox, who somehow managed to get himself banned from his own team's pro dayand may very well have played himself completely off some teams draft boards. Same for Syacuse's Williams who has done very little to explain just why he upped and quit the team late this season. When considering off-field stuff it is always wise to keep in mind that no player got more bad press for this kind of stuff last year than Alabama OT Andre Smith, but he was still ultimately taken 6th overall by Cincinnati.
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A Very, Very Early Look at the 2011 Draft
by Colin Lindsay, GBN Editor and Publisher
February 1, 2010
Of course, it’s still a long, long way until the 2011, but smart NFL teams always try and keep an eye out for what is coming down the road when factoring which direction to go at the upcoming draft. And, again, while it is still early, the early book on the 2011 draft is that it could be another relatively strong draft. Here’s a quick preview of some of the likely strengths and weaknesses of the 2011 draft class.
The strength of the 2010 draft appears to be along the defensive line where there is a ton of both talent and depth at both DE and DT. Teams that aren’t able to upgrade their defensive lines, though, won’t have to wait all that long to address that need as it looks like the position will be strong again in 2011. Indeed, next year’s DT crop could actually even be stronger than this year’s group, despite the fact that Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska and Oklahoma junior Gerald McCoy are the consensus top two prospects at any position in this year‘s draft field. Its unlikely any DT will go quite that high in 2011, however, next year’s class at the position could be deeper starting with Marvin Austin of North Carolina, Arian Taylor of Oklahoma, Allen Bailey of Miami, Florida’s Lawrence Marsh, Chris Neildd of West Virginia, 355-pound Phil Taylor of Baylor, Jerrel Powe of Ole Miss and Clemson’s Jarvis Jenkins. The best of the bunch, though, could ultimately juniors Jared Crick, Suh’s partner in crime at Nebraska who had 9.5 sacks of his own last fall, and Marcus Fortson of Miami.
The talent level at DE may not be quite as high at DT next April, however, Greg Romeus of Pittsburgh and Clemson junior Da‘Quan Bowers have top 10-20 potential, while Robert Quinn of North Carolina, Iowa’s Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward of Ohio State, Jeremy Beal of Oklahoma, and Sam Acho of Texas all should figure somewhere before the end of the third round.
In fact, defense could be the name of the game at the 2011 as there are also relatively strong groups at both inside and outside LB. The headliners at OLB next April should include Greg Jones of Michigan State, Texas A&M’s Von Miller and Bruce Carter of North Carolina, each of whom has first-round potential, as might juniors Akeem Ayers of UCLA and Travis Lewis of Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Michael Morgan of Southern Cal, Ross Homan of Ohio State and Miami’s Colin McCarthy for the nucleus of a solid second-tier crop of OLBs.
At the same time, the MLB class may not have any superstar prospects like Rolando McClain of Alabama this year, but still should feature a number of very good players such as Kelvin Sheppard of LSU, Alex Wujiack of Maryland, North Carolina’s Quan Sturdivant, Mike Mohammad of California and Mark Herzlich of Boston College. No matter where he is drafted, though, BC’s Herslich is sure to be one of the 2011 drafts best stories after he missed the past season recovering from a rare form of cancer. And the MLB crop for the 2011 draft could get even better if either or both of talented juniors Donta’ Hightower of Alabama or Chris Gallippo of Southern Cal leave school early next winter, although Hightower will be coming back from a serious knee injury that sidelined him most of the past season.
If there is a potential weak spot on defense at the 2011 draft it could be on the corner where for the second straight year it looks like there won’t be many first round locks. Virginia CB Ras-I Dowling, who many thought had a chance to be the second or third corner off the board had he entered this year’s draft, though, is an exception as may be a number of juniors including Patrick Peterson of LSU, Texas’ AaronWilliams and Trevin Wade of Arizona. Meanwhile, CBs that should generate top 100 interest at the 2011 draft include DeAndre Morgan of NC State, North Carolina’s Kendric Burney, Brandon Harris of Miami, Prince Amukamara of Nebraska, and Virginia Tech’s Rashad Carmichael.
There also isn’t likely to be any Eric Berrys at safety at the 2011 draft, although there should be decent depth at the position including free safeties Deunta Williams of North Carolina, South Carolina’s Chris Culliver, Jeron Johnson of Boise State, Zac Etheridge of Auburn, Quinton Carter of Oklahoma and Brett Greenwood of Iowa and strong safeties DeAndre McDaniel of Clemson and Florida’s Ahmad Black. Some of the best safieties in the country, though, are juniors such as UCLA FS Rahim Moore and SSs Marc Barron of Alabama and Tyler Sash of Iowa.
If there is one position that has pro scouts really excited for 2011, though, is at WR where there could be a number of truly outstanding underclassemen who would have been top prospects had they been eligible this year including A.J. Green of Georgia, Julio Jones of Alabama, Jon Baldwin of Pittsburgh, Ryan Broyles of Oklahoma, Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd, and DeAndre Brown of Southern Miss. There is a major drop-off at the position after the underclassmen, although veterans such as Leonard Hankerson of Miami, Greg Little of North Carolina and Duval Kamara of Notre Dame should provide some interesting veteran depth in the latter second and third rounds.
If there is an early consensus favorite to be the #1 pick in 2011 it would be Washington QB Jake Locker, who likely would have challenged Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh to be the first player taken this year if he had opted to enter the 2009. Locker just has to hope his decision to return to school for another year works out better than it did for Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, the consensus choice to be the top pick last year before he chose to return to school, who barely played this fall after being injured in the Sooners’ season opener. Meanwhile, strong-armed Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett also could figure in next year’s top 10, while athletic Jerrod Johnson could be something of a first-round sleeper. And there should be some decent depth at QB in 2011 including Christian Ponder of Florida State, Houston gunslinger Case Keenum, Colin Kaepernick of Nevada, Andy Dalton of TCU, Taylor Potts of Texas Tech and former Penn State transfer Pat Devlin of Delaware.
On the other hand, while it looks like there will be some good backs in the 2011 class, it isn’t clear at this point that there are any great ones. Indeed, it wouldn’t be a total shock if no RB were taken in the opening round that year, although Evan Royster of Penn State, DeMarco Murray of Oklahoma, USF’s Mike Ford, Harvey Unga of BYU and West Virginia mighty-mite Noel Devine have top 100 potential, as do several juniors like John Clay, the battering ram from Wisconsin, Alabama’s Mark Ingram, this year’s Heisman Trophy winner and Oregon speedster Jacquizz Rodgers.
Upfront, the OTs usually take center stage over their counterparts at OG, however, the strength along the offensive line in 2011 looks like it will be inside where Rodney Hudson of Florida State, Florida’s Mike Pouncey, John Moffitt of Wisconsin and Justin Boren of Ohio State head a very strong group. On the other hand, there may be as many questions as answers at OT which features a lot of good prospects including Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi, Lee Ziemba of Auburn, Carl Johnson of Florida, Kyle Hix of Texas, Chris Hairston of Clemson, Anthony Castonzo of Boston College and Jarriel King of South Carolina among others, however, none has yet to really establish himself as an elite type. Meanwhile, Kris O‘Dowd of Southern Cal and Steve Wisniewski of Penn State are potentially two of the better C prospects to come along in a while.
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http://www.gbnreport.com/scoutsnotebook.htm
THE SCOUT'S NOTEBOOK
WHO'S HOT; WHO'S NOT AND WHAT ELSE IS COOKING FOR 2010 DRAFT
by Colin Lindsay, Editor and Publisher, Great Blue North Draft Report
March 16, 2010
Clock ticking on 2010 draft … There are just over 5 weeks to go until the picks start to come off the board at the 2010 draft and usually at this point in time value boards around the league really start to come into focus. And that certainly appears to be the case this year, at least as it relates to the very top of the board. At the same time, though, it appears that there is still a lot of sorting out to be done among the 10-15 slots. On the one hand, there are a lot of talented players in the upcoming draft, however, there are also still a lot of red flags that have yet to be addressed.
Top 5 pretty settled … Obviously there will be some exceptions around the league; there will also be some variation in how the individual players are ranked, however, it appears that there is a pretty solid consensus around the NFL that the top5 players in the 2010 draft class include DTs Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska and Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, Tennessee safety Eric Berry and Oklahoma State OT Russell Okung. Indeed, unless a team like Washington takes a flyer on Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen, there’s a very good likelihood that the five will be the first players off the board next month in some order.
After those first 5 players, though, things start to get a little murky. Indeed, there is a good possibility that a lot of teams are having trouble the 6-10 box on their value boards. Iowa OT Brian Bulaga appears to have comfortably established himself as the solid #2 player at the position behind Oklahoma State’s Okung and has likely earned a top 10 grade. Georgia Tech DE Derrick Morgan also likely rates a top 6-10 grade on many team’s value boards, but it may not be totally unanimous as he lacks elite-level closing speed. Then there’s Notre Dame’s Clausen who seems to be all over the place on boards around the league. Some teams like his arm strength and confidence and have him rated as either a top 10 prospect, or at least not that far off. Others, though, are concerned about his lack of consistency and don’t have him rated quite that high. Indeed, if any player seems susceptible to the kind of painful draft day wait experienced by former Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn back in 2007, it’s his replacement with the Irish.
And after that, it seems there are almost as many questions as answers. Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant, for example, clearly has top 10 - and maybe even top 5 physical potential - but character issues have dropped his stock like a stone. On the other hand, there are no character issues with either Alabama MLB Rolando McClain or Florida CB Joe Haden, both of whom were considered almost locks to be top 10 picks this year not so long ago, however, revelations about a non-football illness, as well as the fact that he doesn‘t quite have prototype 3-down foot speed have hurt McClain, while Haden‘s stock took a hit when he posted some very disappointing 40 times in the 4.6 range at last month‘s scouting combine in Indianapolis. Its not expected that either player drops al that far, but both likely will at least slip out of the top 10.
As the top RB in this year’s draft field, and as one of the fastest players in the country period, Clemson RB C.J. Spiller has moved up into the top half of the first round and could ultimately sneak into the top 10 on draft day, however, the fact that he’s under 200 pounds and seldom had to carry the load all by himself with the Tigers is also likely going to make him something of a reach were he to be selected too early on April 22nd. Same story for OTs Trent Williams of Oklahoma and Rutgers’ Anthony Davis, both of whom could be top 10 picks this coming April, if no other reason than they both can play he valued LT spot. Again, however, there are issues with both. Williams, for example, has eye-popping athletic ability, but still plays stiff and somewhat mechanically, while Davis, a prototype wide-body with long arms and reasonably quick feet, isn’t very athletic and may be one of the least mature prospects in the entire draft. And so it goes. South Florida DE Jason Pierre-Paul is another 2010 prospect with top 10 physical potential, but barely half a season of major college football experience may not be enough to justify a top 10-15 pick.
On the other hand, once past the top 10, the number of players at the next levels tends to grow exponentially. Indeed, while there are may be as few as 7-8 players carrying legitimate top 10 grades, there may be as many as 40 players with potential first round grades. Obviouly, boards around the NFL are going to differ significantly, however, below is the current GBN Value Board. In fact, value boards are a far better schemata with which to considerhow players are ranked than a pure numrerical listing 1-100 or whatever. Indeed, as a general rule good teams always take a player from the last row from on which players are still available, but match needs by taking the player that best fits either their needs or what they are hoping to build from that last row.
Top of GBN Value Board
ROW 1 (Top 5A)
DT Ndamukong Sun
QB Sam Bradford
ROW 2 (Top 5B)
DT Gerald McCoy FS Eric Berry
OT Russell Okung
ROW 3 (Top 6-10) OT Brian Bulaga
DE Derrick Morgan
ROW 4 (Top 11-15)
QB Jimmy Clausen
RB C.J. Spiller WR Dez Bryant OT Trent Williams LB Rolando McClain CB Joe Haden
ROW 5 (Top 15-20)
OT Anthony Davis OT Bruce Campbell OG Mike Iupati DE Jason Pierre-Paul FS Taylor Mays FS Earl Thomas DE Everson Griffin
ROW 6 (Top 21-30)
WR Golden Tate
WR Regus Benn TE Jermaine Gresham OT Charles Brown RB Ryan Mathews RB Jonathan Dwyer C Maurkice Pouncey
DT Dan Williams
DT Brian Price
DT Jared Odrick
DT Terrence Cody DE Brandon Graham
DE Carlos Dunlap
DE/LB Jerry Hughes
LB Sergio Kindle
CB Kyle Wilson
CB Devin McCourty
Who's hot ... Missouri LB Sean Weatherspon started the year rated as a potential top 15 prospect for the 2010 draft, but slipped well back following a somewhat pedestrian senior season. Weatherspoon, though, has been on a role with a strong off-season and appears to have made up most of the ground he lost during the season. Meanwhile, Tennessee DT Dan Williams appears to have separated himself from Brian Price and Jared Odrick in the race to be the third ranked DT this year behind Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy. And with a number of teams looking for some size, strength and intensity along the interior of their defensive front fours, it wouldn't be a shock to see Williams, a 325-pounder with explosive first step and a great motor for a big man, get a call as early as the early 20s.
<>And speaking of DTs, Texas DT Lamarr Houston, an athletic 300-plus pounder, who like Tennessee's Williams has a solid work ethic, has made a case this off-season that he should be included in that group of excellent second-tier DTs in the middle of the second round. Meanwhile, for a long time, the 2010 draft looked like it could be a CB wasteland after Joe Haden of Florida, however, both CB Kyle Wilson of Boise State and CB Devin McCourty have had great pre-draft workouts. Wilson, in particular, had a super Senior Bowl and followed it up with a solid combine and could ultimately get some late top 20 consideration this April. For his part, McCourty look like a solid late first rounder, especially given the importance of the position on draft day. There is a similar story at RB which was not thought to be that strong this year, but a number of backs have stepped up this winter. Leading the way is RB Ryan Mathews of Fresno State, the nation's leading rusher in 2009 with a special combination of size, speed and agility, who could start to get some consideration somewhere between to 20th and 25th picks this year.
Honorable mentions among players moving up: Indiana T/G Rodger Saffold, Virginia CB/S Chris Cook; Ohio WR Taylor Pice; RBs Ben Tate of Auburn and Tennessee's Montario Hardesty; BYU TE Dennis Pitta, Boston College C Matt Tenant and Colorado State OG Shelley Snmith.
Other guys to watch: Arizona DT Earl Mitchell has never gotten much national pub, but he's a near 300-pounder with sub-4.8 quickness and an improving work ethic. Texas Christian T/G Marshall Newhouse is a little short (6-3) to be an OT at the next level, but he's a 320-pounder with real quickness and athleticism; plus he got plenty of pass protection reps in the high-octane TCUoffense. WR is one of those positions with almsot as many questions as answers, but a couple of wideouts to keep an eye include Carlton Mitchell of South Florida and UConn's Marcus Easley, both of whom are big receivers with real speed.
Didn't you guys used to be ... Nobody in the 2010 draft class have been picked over more than Florida QB Tim Tebow, USC safety Taylor Mays and Alabama NT Terrence Cody. As pro teams have gone back to the tapes to verify workout observations they have seen that all three guys make plays. Of course, it didn't hurt that Cody has lost a bunch of weight since his disastrous Senior Bowl appearnce, that Mays as expected had a great combine workout, and that Tebow is at least making the effort to refine his throwing motion. At the same time, it would be a stretch to suggest that any of the three is rocketing up draft boards around the league, but the sense is that all three have at least stopped the bleeding and are heading in the right direction.
Who's not ... Florida State CB Patrick Robinson was often inconsistent in college, but was considered to have the athleticsim to outrun a lot of mistakes, however, he was barely able to crack the 4.6 mark for the 40 at the combine and just didn't look at all quick or instinctive and as a result could drop into the second day of this year's draft. Same story for Michigan CB Donovan Warren, who was even slower at the combine, although he did put up better numbers at his pro day, however, those pesky combine numbers have a way of staying with people. UMass Vlad Ducasse made a big, both literally and figuratively, splash at the Senior Bowl with his size and strength, but hasn't shown much in the way of agility since; indeed, more than one edge rusher has made it look like his cleats were nailed to the turf such that he was being pegged as a pure RT or even OG prospect. For the record, though, the assessment of Ducasse is very similar to that that plagued former Oklahoma OT Phil Loadholt last year; Loadholt, though, went on to have an excellent year starting all season at RT for Minnesota. Meanwhile, both Kansas WR Dezmon Briscoe and Duke DT Vince Oghabaase, both of whom have next-level size, but both have also been very slow in pre-draft workouts. Meanwhile, there is growing concern about the lingering effects of the back injury that forced Arizona TE Rob Gronkowski to miss the 2009 season after he didn't participate in the Wildcats' pro day last week. Gronkowski has a private workout scheduled for later in the month, but it may come too late to erase all doubt.
Today's trivia question is what do Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant, Rutgers' OT Anthony Davis, Florida DE Carlos Dunalp, Oklahoma State CB Perrish Cox, Syracuse WR Mike Williams and Abilene Christian OT Tony Washington have in common. The answer, of course, is that each has seen his draft grade slide in some fashior or other because of off-field issues and questions about attitude and work ethic. Bryant, Davis and Dunlap, though, are still likely to be first round picks this year, although questions persist. Bryant, for example, reportedly did a nice job explaining away how he came to be suspended for most the season at the combine, but then took another couple of steps back when he opted not to work out at the Oklahoma State pro day despite the fact a literal who's-who of NFL personnel types were there, many of whom specifically to watch him. Same story for Rutgers' Davis who reminded pro teams why he is considered to be one of the most immature players in the 2010 draft class when he too refused to participate in the team's pro day, again with a number of pro scouts in the stands just to see him. No one has anything on Oklahoma State's Cox, who somehow managed to get himself banned from his own team's pro dayand may very well have played himself completely off some teams draft boards. Same for Syacuse's Williams who has done very little to explain just why he upped and quit the team late this season. When considering off-field stuff it is always wise to keep in mind that no player got more bad press for this kind of stuff last year than Alabama OT Andre Smith, but he was still ultimately taken 6th overall by Cincinnati.
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A Very, Very Early Look at the 2011 Draft
by Colin Lindsay, GBN Editor and Publisher
February 1, 2010
Of course, it’s still a long, long way until the 2011, but smart NFL teams always try and keep an eye out for what is coming down the road when factoring which direction to go at the upcoming draft. And, again, while it is still early, the early book on the 2011 draft is that it could be another relatively strong draft. Here’s a quick preview of some of the likely strengths and weaknesses of the 2011 draft class.
The strength of the 2010 draft appears to be along the defensive line where there is a ton of both talent and depth at both DE and DT. Teams that aren’t able to upgrade their defensive lines, though, won’t have to wait all that long to address that need as it looks like the position will be strong again in 2011. Indeed, next year’s DT crop could actually even be stronger than this year’s group, despite the fact that Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska and Oklahoma junior Gerald McCoy are the consensus top two prospects at any position in this year‘s draft field. Its unlikely any DT will go quite that high in 2011, however, next year’s class at the position could be deeper starting with Marvin Austin of North Carolina, Arian Taylor of Oklahoma, Allen Bailey of Miami, Florida’s Lawrence Marsh, Chris Neildd of West Virginia, 355-pound Phil Taylor of Baylor, Jerrel Powe of Ole Miss and Clemson’s Jarvis Jenkins. The best of the bunch, though, could ultimately juniors Jared Crick, Suh’s partner in crime at Nebraska who had 9.5 sacks of his own last fall, and Marcus Fortson of Miami.
The talent level at DE may not be quite as high at DT next April, however, Greg Romeus of Pittsburgh and Clemson junior Da‘Quan Bowers have top 10-20 potential, while Robert Quinn of North Carolina, Iowa’s Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward of Ohio State, Jeremy Beal of Oklahoma, and Sam Acho of Texas all should figure somewhere before the end of the third round.
In fact, defense could be the name of the game at the 2011 as there are also relatively strong groups at both inside and outside LB. The headliners at OLB next April should include Greg Jones of Michigan State, Texas A&M’s Von Miller and Bruce Carter of North Carolina, each of whom has first-round potential, as might juniors Akeem Ayers of UCLA and Travis Lewis of Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Michael Morgan of Southern Cal, Ross Homan of Ohio State and Miami’s Colin McCarthy for the nucleus of a solid second-tier crop of OLBs.
At the same time, the MLB class may not have any superstar prospects like Rolando McClain of Alabama this year, but still should feature a number of very good players such as Kelvin Sheppard of LSU, Alex Wujiack of Maryland, North Carolina’s Quan Sturdivant, Mike Mohammad of California and Mark Herzlich of Boston College. No matter where he is drafted, though, BC’s Herslich is sure to be one of the 2011 drafts best stories after he missed the past season recovering from a rare form of cancer. And the MLB crop for the 2011 draft could get even better if either or both of talented juniors Donta’ Hightower of Alabama or Chris Gallippo of Southern Cal leave school early next winter, although Hightower will be coming back from a serious knee injury that sidelined him most of the past season.
If there is a potential weak spot on defense at the 2011 draft it could be on the corner where for the second straight year it looks like there won’t be many first round locks. Virginia CB Ras-I Dowling, who many thought had a chance to be the second or third corner off the board had he entered this year’s draft, though, is an exception as may be a number of juniors including Patrick Peterson of LSU, Texas’ AaronWilliams and Trevin Wade of Arizona. Meanwhile, CBs that should generate top 100 interest at the 2011 draft include DeAndre Morgan of NC State, North Carolina’s Kendric Burney, Brandon Harris of Miami, Prince Amukamara of Nebraska, and Virginia Tech’s Rashad Carmichael.
There also isn’t likely to be any Eric Berrys at safety at the 2011 draft, although there should be decent depth at the position including free safeties Deunta Williams of North Carolina, South Carolina’s Chris Culliver, Jeron Johnson of Boise State, Zac Etheridge of Auburn, Quinton Carter of Oklahoma and Brett Greenwood of Iowa and strong safeties DeAndre McDaniel of Clemson and Florida’s Ahmad Black. Some of the best safieties in the country, though, are juniors such as UCLA FS Rahim Moore and SSs Marc Barron of Alabama and Tyler Sash of Iowa.
If there is one position that has pro scouts really excited for 2011, though, is at WR where there could be a number of truly outstanding underclassemen who would have been top prospects had they been eligible this year including A.J. Green of Georgia, Julio Jones of Alabama, Jon Baldwin of Pittsburgh, Ryan Broyles of Oklahoma, Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd, and DeAndre Brown of Southern Miss. There is a major drop-off at the position after the underclassmen, although veterans such as Leonard Hankerson of Miami, Greg Little of North Carolina and Duval Kamara of Notre Dame should provide some interesting veteran depth in the latter second and third rounds.
If there is an early consensus favorite to be the #1 pick in 2011 it would be Washington QB Jake Locker, who likely would have challenged Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh to be the first player taken this year if he had opted to enter the 2009. Locker just has to hope his decision to return to school for another year works out better than it did for Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, the consensus choice to be the top pick last year before he chose to return to school, who barely played this fall after being injured in the Sooners’ season opener. Meanwhile, strong-armed Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett also could figure in next year’s top 10, while athletic Jerrod Johnson could be something of a first-round sleeper. And there should be some decent depth at QB in 2011 including Christian Ponder of Florida State, Houston gunslinger Case Keenum, Colin Kaepernick of Nevada, Andy Dalton of TCU, Taylor Potts of Texas Tech and former Penn State transfer Pat Devlin of Delaware.
On the other hand, while it looks like there will be some good backs in the 2011 class, it isn’t clear at this point that there are any great ones. Indeed, it wouldn’t be a total shock if no RB were taken in the opening round that year, although Evan Royster of Penn State, DeMarco Murray of Oklahoma, USF’s Mike Ford, Harvey Unga of BYU and West Virginia mighty-mite Noel Devine have top 100 potential, as do several juniors like John Clay, the battering ram from Wisconsin, Alabama’s Mark Ingram, this year’s Heisman Trophy winner and Oregon speedster Jacquizz Rodgers.
Upfront, the OTs usually take center stage over their counterparts at OG, however, the strength along the offensive line in 2011 looks like it will be inside where Rodney Hudson of Florida State, Florida’s Mike Pouncey, John Moffitt of Wisconsin and Justin Boren of Ohio State head a very strong group. On the other hand, there may be as many questions as answers at OT which features a lot of good prospects including Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi, Lee Ziemba of Auburn, Carl Johnson of Florida, Kyle Hix of Texas, Chris Hairston of Clemson, Anthony Castonzo of Boston College and Jarriel King of South Carolina among others, however, none has yet to really establish himself as an elite type. Meanwhile, Kris O‘Dowd of Southern Cal and Steve Wisniewski of Penn State are potentially two of the better C prospects to come along in a while.
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