Im going to try a new thing this year where I ask Zoners to make a complelling argument as to why a player should be considered in the draft. Its not necessarily going to be a guy I personally need to be sold, but I want to hear your arguments.
Ill try to do two a week. One offensive, one defensive
Not a fan at all. Horrible route runner and not a technician. Treylon Burks would give us 3 WR’s who are eh to mediocre route runners (Burks, Lamb, Gallup).
You know how the front office loves to emulate the last team that beat them. They probably see Deebo 2.0. A WR/ RB who can save a roster spot on Sundays so they can insert another non difference maker on the active roster. I say he has a shot to be the pick FWIW, more likely a lineman though if both Wolliams and Collins leave.
Not a fan at all. Horrible route runner and not a technician. Treylon Burks would give us 3 WR’s who are eh to mediocre route runners (Burks, Lamb, Gallup).
Burks is very similar to Dez Bryant. Great after the catch, huge hands with a large catch radius, major red zone weapon. Just like Dez, very raw as a route runner at this stage.
You know how the front office loves to emulate the last team that beat them. They probably see Deebo 2.0. A WR/ RB who can save a roster spot on Sundays so they can insert another non difference maker on the active roster. I say he has a shot to be the pick FWIW, more likely a lineman though if both Wolliams and Collins leave.
I would prefer Olave but wouldn't mind Burks. He was really the only weapon Arkansas had and opponents loaded up to stop him and couldn't Even against Alabama he had 8 catches for 139 so you know he's a gamer. Gallup's 40 was 4.51 and Burks was 4.55 and Burks weighed 20 pounds more.
Strengths
Premium size/speed ratio.
Huge hands with rare weight-room power for a wideout.
Has size and body control to mismatch cornerbacks.
Made 8 catches for 179 yards and two touchdowns against Alabama.
Quick and urgent in slipping past press attempts.
Releases into route with forward lean and hard push to threaten.
Suddenness to turn and present to passer underneath.
Smooth for his size when gliding through space.
Runs routes with proper leverage and turn acceleration.
Access to a second gear when he needs it.
Former all-state outfielder with skill to track and snag deep ball.
Sells his body out to make the catch.
Leaps and plucks it way up the ladder with strong hands.
Stiff-arm and build-up speed to make a short catch a long gain.
I would prefer Olave but wouldn't mind Burks. He was really the only weapon Arkansas had and opponents loaded up to stop him and couldn't Even against Alabama he had 8 catches for 139 so you know he's a gamer. Gallup's 40 was 4.51 and Burks was 4.55 and Burks weighed 20 pounds more.
Strengths
Premium size/speed ratio.
Huge hands with rare weight-room power for a wideout.
Has size and body control to mismatch cornerbacks.
Made 8 catches for 179 yards and two touchdowns against Alabama.
Quick and urgent in slipping past press attempts.
Releases into route with forward lean and hard push to threaten.
Suddenness to turn and present to passer underneath.
Smooth for his size when gliding through space.
Runs routes with proper leverage and turn acceleration.
Access to a second gear when he needs it.
Former all-state outfielder with skill to track and snag deep ball.
Sells his body out to make the catch.
Leaps and plucks it way up the ladder with strong hands.
Stiff-arm and build-up speed to make a short catch a long gain.
Im going to try a new thing this year where I ask Zoners to make a complelling argument as to why a player should be considered in the draft. Its not necessarily going to be a guy I personally need to be sold, but I want to hear your arguments.
Ill try to do two a week. One offensive, one defensive
I had the Rotoworld study for "Combine drills that translate" open for the Karlaftis thread... I'll just look at it again for this one.
Receivers (At least 6’0)
Combine Tests That Matter: Speed Score (kinda), Broad Jump (kinda)
Big receivers win in many different ways compared to small ones. There’s less side-to-side movement and more burst needed to win those vertical and crossing routes. That’s why speed score and the broad jump are the two tests to pay attention to for receivers checking in at 6’0 or taller. Now, there is zero relationship for average scores, but we can learn something at the low-end and high-end of each test. Big receivers with a speed score of 115 or above have my attention, and prospects with a speed score below 95 are in serious trouble. As for the broad jump, anything below 120 inches is troubling.
The short version is, you want to see big receivers with a good size/speed combo and with at least a 10'0" broad jump. The study defined size-speed using the Speed Score, which is (200*weight)/(40 time ^ 4).
Burks checks both boxes. He ran 4.55 (for his size, 4.60 and under is passing) and jumped 10'2". Not a strong pass, but he does pass.
Production is where he smashes the metrics. The things that matter for WR projection are target share and breakout age. Burks hogged Hog targets, ranking in the 93rd percentile for target share among college WRs. His 20yo sophomore breakout age is exactly 50th percentile... not bad, not special.
Subjectively,... the Combine doesn't measure upper body strength well and doesn't measure ball skills at all, and those 2 traits are sort of Burks' special sauce. His weakest athletic facet is his agility, and the Combine measures that well. Frankly, Burks is really stiff. His speed is middling by NFL standards, and again, the Combine measured that accurately. But he's not getting Combine credit for what he is athletically exceptional at. Burks is a rocked-up tank with phenomenal hands, and it's hard to not see Dez Bryant in him.
His game is raw, but we've seen tons of big, strong WRs win just by basically being big, strong WRs. Dez, Demaryius Thomas, Josh Gordon, AJ Brown... it's a skill set that translates well.
In a class that looks short on X receiver material, Burks is raw X receiver material. The only other sideline-type 1st round receiver I see in this class is Drake London, and he's going early. The rest of the guys... if you want a 190 lb slot, they're good. But Burks is the boundary guy.
