Twitter: SEMTEX is a new way to look at college production

[Texas_Pete]

It seems like a good predictor of how college QB success translates to the NFL.

PROLOGUE

I’ve been pretty cavalier about my skepticism with using college production for NFL evaluation purposes in the past. But I believe in being informed and personally testing everything, even methodologies I don’t buy into. So I started to look into production so I could see exactly how effective or ineffective it truly could be on a macro scale.

I started at the quarterback position. And I’ll be honest, I thought that I would find that college production was not predictive for signal callers. I could not have been more off-base. When optimized, college production can be very predictive at quarterback.

Before you jump around and yell about “box score scouting” — believe me, that’s the last thing I buy into — keep in mind that I am a tape evaluator first and foremost. Using film to identify translatable traits is vital to the NFL evaluation process and is always the first thing that should be looked at when analyzing a player. And when I say production is predictive, I don’t mean your typical passing yards and touchdowns. In fact, typical raw box score numbers have minuscule correlations to NFL success since 1999:

Here is every Gold passer drafted since 1999, sorted by MAVPY output:

1) Russell Wilson (won a SB).
2) Tom Brady (won a SB)
3) Cam (went to a SB)

Dak is tied with Matty Ice (who just went to a SB) and Aaron Rogers (who has won a SB) for 4th. Dak is in good company.

On the surface, SEMTEX seems legit. More info here:
https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl/introducing-semtex-new-way-look-college-production/

 

[dagreat1_87]

wonder what romos number would look like.

 

[Setackin]

I'm totally confused about all of that.

 

[darthseinfeld]

I'm totally confused about all of that.

Todd Husak was a Gold tier passer

 

[Sydla]

Isn't there a fairly noticeable name missing from this? Or did I miss it?

 

[DallasEast]

lol. This SEMTEX breaks quarterbacks into Gold, Silver and Bronze groups who were drafted since and before 1999. Quincy Carter (Bronze) gets a mentionable for this reason. Kellen Moore gets a mentionable also as an explanation for why undrafted free agents are excluded. Where's Romo? Who knows. There's a lot of data that should have been quantified better in my opinion.

 

[DeaconMoss]

Isn't there a fairly noticeable name missing from this? Or did I miss it?

Chicken parm tastes so good

 

[SDCowboy]

Isn't there a fairly noticeable name missing from this? Or did I miss it?

Who?

 

[stilltheguru88]

Dak is a gawd

 

[DeaconMoss]

lol. This SEMTEX breaks quarterbacks into Gold, Silver and Bronze groups who were drafted since and before 1999. Quincy Carter (Bronze) gets a mentionable for this reason. Kellen Moore gets a mentionable also as an explanation for why undrafted free agents are excluded. Where's Romo? Who knows. There's a lot of data that should have been quantified better in my opinion.

Romo wasn't drafted

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

Isn't there a fairly noticeable name missing from this? Or did I miss it?

Peyton Manning? Jameis Winston? Wentz? There's more than one missing.

 

[SDCowboy]

Peyton Manning? Jameis Winston? Wentz? There's more than one missing.

Peyton was drafted before '99. And you can see what his number is in the article.

Also Winston isn't on the gold list. He's on the silver list, also in the article.

 

[viman96]

Not sure why Wentz is not on the list. High profile draft pick that played the entire season so enough repos to qualify (if there such a thing with Semtex analysis).

 

[DallasEast]

Romo wasn't drafted

Neither was Moore.

 

[GhostOfPelluer]

Peyton was drafted before '99. And you can see what his number is in the article.

Also Winston isn't on the gold list. He's on the silver list, also in the article.

I read it and it still doesn't list Wentz. Also, it doesn't have Brad Johnson on any pre-1999 list. It has Kelly and Marino so I know Johnson should have been on there.

 

[speedkilz88]

Looks like Brad Kaaya & Jerod Evans have a shot at being the next Dak.



https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl/qbs-2017-nfl-draft-likely-succeed/

 

[zack]

It seems like a good predictor of how college QB success translates to the NFL.

Here is every Gold passer drafted since 1999, sorted by MAVPY output:

1) Russell Wilson (won a SB).
2) Tom Brady (won a SB)
3) Cam (went to a SB)

Dak is tied with Matty Ice (who just went to a SB) and Aaron Rogers (who has won a SB) for 4th. Dak is in good company.

On the surface, SEMTEX seems legit. More info here:
https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl/introducing-semtex-new-way-look-college-production/

I stopped reading when it had Cam Newton at #3.

 

[Hailmary]

What am I not understanding? If a certain collegiate statistics equal certain mavpy points, how can players like Brennan and Goff score a 0?

 

[LocimusPrime]

How is rg3 better than Alex smith. Comeon man.
Aaron Rogers is the 6th best qb.....not buying what they trying to sell

 

[RJ_MacReady]

Usual suspects are showing back up at the scene of the crime..