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How non-playoff players, coaches foresee the postseason playing out
For my money there's no better weekend on the NFL calendar than the Saturday and Sunday quadruple-header of divisional-round play, when the four top seeds play host to the four first-round winners for the right to move on to next week's conference championships. It usually makes for the best football of the entire season, as the higher seeds and the notion of home-field advantage get tested by the teams that already have a playoff win under their belts.
I went looking for analysis and some kind of scouting-report consensus on the NFL's elite eight this week, and it seemed only logical to talk to players, coaches and personnel men on teams that played -- and lost to -- many of the remaining divisional-round survivors.
What I heard could be summarized thusly: Almost unanimous enthusiasm for the playoff-ready winning formula of the AFC's sixth-seeded Baltimore Ravens. There was also great respect for the Super Bowl chances of the battle-tested and top-seeded New York Giants in the NFC, providing they can somehow find a way to squeak past their pesky division rival Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. (All of which made me feel even better about having picked a Ravens-Giants Super Bowl matchup before the start of last week's first round. But I digress).
So here's what a quarterback, a linebacker, a head coach, a position coach and two personnel men had to say about the four divisional-round games:
• "To me, the best team is Baltimore,'' said Dallas backup quarterback Brad Johnson, whose Cowboys finished the season by playing four of the remaining eight teams, all in December -- losing at Pittsburgh, beating the Giants at home, losing at home to the Ravens and losing at Philadelphia. "I love the way the Ravens are playing. They can stop anybody, and they can score. And that quarterback, they're not giving the rookie (Joe Flacco) enough credit up there. He doesn't turn the ball over, and he make throws from anywhere on the field. He can really change the field quickly.
"And with that defense, if you beat them, you better beat them 17-13. If you get behind them 10 points, by two scores, it's tough. It's pretty much over at that point. And they've got a great kicker in Matt Stover. I really like them. I think they're the best we faced this year.''
Including Dallas's Week 6 loss at Arizona, the Cowboys played seven games against five different elite eight teams this season, which was tied for most in the NFL. Throw in their preseason opener at San Diego, and the Cowboys saw all but Carolina and Tennessee at some point in 2008. But with two games each against the Giants and Eagles, each of whom they split with, winning at home and losing on the road, the Cowboys are well positioned to weigh in on Sunday's third Eagles-Giants matchup of the season.
"You can beat the Giants, but they're good,'' Johnson said. "And at home they have a real advantage. I think if they win this week, they win next week too and get to the Super Bowl. But Philly can play them very tough and make them earn it. New York played a great game against the Eagles earlier in the year, and then kind of sputtered a little bit in the rematch.
"Eli Manning hasn't been turning the ball over, and that's a big plus this time of year. But if you're the Giants, the whole deal could be missing Plaxico Burress, because that takes away three big pass plays a game, and that's a lot to make up for. It's going to come down to that running game to take up the slack. If Brandon Jacobs is healthy, they're going to get their yards. They'll be fine. But I see it as Baltimore and the Giants. Those are the two best teams.''
• Cowboys receivers coach Ray Sherman, who next week will interview for the Rams head coaching job, foresees a different outcome for the Eagles-Giants showdown.
"I think Philly can beat the Giants, because the Giants don't have Plax,'' said Sherman, a former offensive coordinator with the Steelers and Vikings. "Without him, Philly defensive backs can take the Giants receivers out of the game. I think New York is going to have problems without Plax if it has to throw the ball. He was the big difference maker.
"I don't see them beating the Eagles in the air. And if Philly can stop the Giants from pounding it and running the ball all day with Jacobs, that plays right into the Eagles' hands. Jim Johnson (the Eagles defensive coordinator) does one of the best jobs I've ever seen at getting ready for you when he gets to play you a couple times. Trust me, he'll have a great game plan for New York. I just like the way the Eagles are playing right now. They're not afraid of the Giants. They beat them before in New York and they can do it again. Their defense is just as tough as the Giants defense, and they can take things away from New York's offense. So I'm going with Philly to beat the Giants.''
Like Johnson, Sherman walked away from Baltimore's Week 16 win at Dallas greatly impressed by the Ravens' blend of defense, running game and steady, mistake-free quarterbacking. Sherman predicted wins this weekend for Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Carolina and Philadelphia. He doesn't foresee Baltimore getting past the Steelers next week, but it's hard to tell that when you listen to him rave about the Ravens.
"I just think the Ravens are a wrecking machine right now,'' Sherman said. "They're a dominating team on defense and they'll do enough on offense to move the ball. They're a strong contender for this thing. I'm giving them an edge this weekend at Tennessee because they're a little bit better at the skill positions of receiver and tight end than the Titans. I think the Ravens defense will take Tennessee's receivers out of it and force them to run the football.''
In the other two divisional-round games, Sherman, like others, can't muster much support for the two warm-weather teams (Arizona and San Diego) that have to fly east and play in the colder climates of Charlotte and Pittsburgh, respectively.
"Not having Anquan Boldin healthy really hurts Arizona, and they just don't have the mindset to play in cold weather,'' he said. "When they go on the road, and it's cold, they're not the same team as they are at home. I think the buzzsaw is going to hit them and it's going to be over early at Carolina.
"And it'll be a tough game for San Diego to win in that stadium, in that Pittsburgh weather. That Steelers defense is too good. It's better even than Baltimore's defense. Which is why I like the Steelers next week, because their defense is too strong for Baltimore's offense. And if it would be Pittsburgh at Tennessee, I still like the Steelers because of what the Titans did last month when they beat Pittsburgh, stomping on their Terrible Towel. You don't do that stuff. That'll come back to haunt them. You never give your opponent something like that to use against you in the future.''
• Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis saw more of the NFL's elite eight teams this season than he would have preferred. The Bengals played seven games against five of the eight divisional round teams, going 0-7. Cincinnati opened the season at Baltimore, home against Tennessee, and at the Giants, losing all of them, although the Bengals did take New York into overtime. Cincinnati also faced Philadelphia, Pittsburgh twice, and the Ravens again.
"What jumps out at you is that so many of these teams play great defense,'' said Lewis, the former Ravens and Commanders defensive coordinator. "The Giants, Philly, Tennessee, Baltimore and Pittsburgh all have overpowering defenses. The other common factor is that so many of these teams can run the football. The majority of them anyway. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Carolina, New York and San Diego can all run the ball, even if the Steelers haven't run as much as usual this year.
"[That] shortens the game. When you run the ball and play defense the way these teams do -- and even Philly with its short passing game, which is almost an extension of its running game -- you don't get into those shootout-type games. You already have a lot of the bases covered.''
Given that Lewis was the Ravens defensive coordinator when they made their surprising run to the Super Bowl title in 2000, I was eager to know if he saw echoes of that Baltimore team in this year's club, as so many have already noted. Could the Ravens ride the same formula of defense, a clock-killing running game and mistake-free quarterbacking to another ring, with the unflappable Flacco in the role that was then played by veteran quarterback Trent Dilfer?
"There's no question they have the same components as that team,'' Lewis said. "They really do. Joe's a more accurate passer than Trent, but Trent didn't make mistakes that year. He didn't throw interceptions. He threw it down the field vertically, and either we caught it or we got a pass interference call our way. He didn't give us bad field position all year.
"Baltimore is a dangerous team because they haven't been out of any games here at the end, except in the (Week 11) Giants game. And when you play a team a second time, like this rematch against Tennessee, veteran players are going to be ready to go. To me, the Ravens are the ones who really have the right mindset. They have something special going, and they're coached by a guy who's going to let them win. I just wonder if Kerry Collins can continue to carry Tennessee? I don't know. He's going to get hit in the face a couple times this week. Let's see how he handles that.''
The potential landmines the Giants must be aware of as they prepare to defend their championship this month center on some off-field issues, Lewis said.
"If the Giants get beyond this week, they'll be fine,'' he said. "But if they get tripped up by anything it might be by the stuff that sometimes gets a defending champion, the Super Bowl talk, or the talk of coaches leaving for other jobs. That stuff gets in the way sometimes of a team reaching its goals.''
• Houston Texans director of pro personnel Brian Gardner is yet another member of the growing Ravens fan club this month. The Texans lost at home to Baltimore in Week 10, after opening the season with road losses at Pittsburgh and at Tennessee. The Texans beat the Titans in Houston in Week 15, and Gardner can't help but conjure up comparisons to the 2000 Ravens when he assesses Baltimore's chances.
"The thing with Baltimore is, you've seen them go down this path before,'' Gardner said. "They've won this way before, having to go on the road in the playoffs, and playing a physical style game, running the ball, and not putting the quarterback in the position of having to do too much. A defensive-minded team like them, they're difficult to knock out.
"I'm just extremely impressed with the Ravens. I'm intrigued by them, and by this weekend's matchup with Tennessee. The Titans are a good football team, but Baltimore knows how to win at this style of game.''
• I asked Commanders middle linebacker London Fletcher to focus his analysis on the Eagles-Giants matchup, given that Washington played each team twice, going 0-2 against New York, but sweeping the Eagles, including a 10-3 win at home in Week 16 -- the loss that most thought all but eliminated Philadelphia from the playoff chase.
"Both teams know each other so well, so there won't be any surprises,'' Fletcher said Friday morning. "The Eagles are a very dangerous team right now. That defense is playing lights out, creating turnovers, scoring, doing it all. And I think the Eagles are playing very loose and very confident because they are playing with house money at this point. There's more pressure on the Giants this weekend because they're at home and they're the defending Super Bowl champs. But don't discount New York. They've got a great defense and a great running game, and they're used to playing in big games now.''
Fletcher, however, is one of the few NFL figures I interviewed who made a point of not letting me off the phone until he had registered his belief in the Super Bowl chances of No. 2 seed Carolina.
"I really like Carolina's team,'' he said. "The running game with those two explosive running backs, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. And then there's the Steve Smith factor. The things he creates are so valuable. Because if you double cover him, you leave yourself open to their running game. And that Panthers defense is a little underrated as well. Carolina is a very dangerous team, and it wouldn't be surprising at all if they're representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.''
• Lastly, I spoke with one longtime AFC personnel man who warned me not to forget about the Chargers, they of the 9-8 record and the tried and true chip on their shoulder.
"They're a hot team right now,'' the AFC personnel man said. "And they feel like it's them against the world, and that's a great mentality to have in the playoffs. That's what the Giants had last year. For them, it's very important to protect Philip Rivers this week at Pittsburgh. If they can, they've got a real chance. They can't get themselves into third and long and let the Steelers outside linebackers to wreak havoc. That's going to be critical. Rivers is the guy. Protect him, keep it close, and don't make any big mistakes, and San Diego could win that game.''
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/don_banks/01/09/divisional/1.html
For my money there's no better weekend on the NFL calendar than the Saturday and Sunday quadruple-header of divisional-round play, when the four top seeds play host to the four first-round winners for the right to move on to next week's conference championships. It usually makes for the best football of the entire season, as the higher seeds and the notion of home-field advantage get tested by the teams that already have a playoff win under their belts.
I went looking for analysis and some kind of scouting-report consensus on the NFL's elite eight this week, and it seemed only logical to talk to players, coaches and personnel men on teams that played -- and lost to -- many of the remaining divisional-round survivors.
What I heard could be summarized thusly: Almost unanimous enthusiasm for the playoff-ready winning formula of the AFC's sixth-seeded Baltimore Ravens. There was also great respect for the Super Bowl chances of the battle-tested and top-seeded New York Giants in the NFC, providing they can somehow find a way to squeak past their pesky division rival Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. (All of which made me feel even better about having picked a Ravens-Giants Super Bowl matchup before the start of last week's first round. But I digress).
So here's what a quarterback, a linebacker, a head coach, a position coach and two personnel men had to say about the four divisional-round games:
• "To me, the best team is Baltimore,'' said Dallas backup quarterback Brad Johnson, whose Cowboys finished the season by playing four of the remaining eight teams, all in December -- losing at Pittsburgh, beating the Giants at home, losing at home to the Ravens and losing at Philadelphia. "I love the way the Ravens are playing. They can stop anybody, and they can score. And that quarterback, they're not giving the rookie (Joe Flacco) enough credit up there. He doesn't turn the ball over, and he make throws from anywhere on the field. He can really change the field quickly.
"And with that defense, if you beat them, you better beat them 17-13. If you get behind them 10 points, by two scores, it's tough. It's pretty much over at that point. And they've got a great kicker in Matt Stover. I really like them. I think they're the best we faced this year.''
Including Dallas's Week 6 loss at Arizona, the Cowboys played seven games against five different elite eight teams this season, which was tied for most in the NFL. Throw in their preseason opener at San Diego, and the Cowboys saw all but Carolina and Tennessee at some point in 2008. But with two games each against the Giants and Eagles, each of whom they split with, winning at home and losing on the road, the Cowboys are well positioned to weigh in on Sunday's third Eagles-Giants matchup of the season.
"You can beat the Giants, but they're good,'' Johnson said. "And at home they have a real advantage. I think if they win this week, they win next week too and get to the Super Bowl. But Philly can play them very tough and make them earn it. New York played a great game against the Eagles earlier in the year, and then kind of sputtered a little bit in the rematch.
"Eli Manning hasn't been turning the ball over, and that's a big plus this time of year. But if you're the Giants, the whole deal could be missing Plaxico Burress, because that takes away three big pass plays a game, and that's a lot to make up for. It's going to come down to that running game to take up the slack. If Brandon Jacobs is healthy, they're going to get their yards. They'll be fine. But I see it as Baltimore and the Giants. Those are the two best teams.''
• Cowboys receivers coach Ray Sherman, who next week will interview for the Rams head coaching job, foresees a different outcome for the Eagles-Giants showdown.
"I think Philly can beat the Giants, because the Giants don't have Plax,'' said Sherman, a former offensive coordinator with the Steelers and Vikings. "Without him, Philly defensive backs can take the Giants receivers out of the game. I think New York is going to have problems without Plax if it has to throw the ball. He was the big difference maker.
"I don't see them beating the Eagles in the air. And if Philly can stop the Giants from pounding it and running the ball all day with Jacobs, that plays right into the Eagles' hands. Jim Johnson (the Eagles defensive coordinator) does one of the best jobs I've ever seen at getting ready for you when he gets to play you a couple times. Trust me, he'll have a great game plan for New York. I just like the way the Eagles are playing right now. They're not afraid of the Giants. They beat them before in New York and they can do it again. Their defense is just as tough as the Giants defense, and they can take things away from New York's offense. So I'm going with Philly to beat the Giants.''
Like Johnson, Sherman walked away from Baltimore's Week 16 win at Dallas greatly impressed by the Ravens' blend of defense, running game and steady, mistake-free quarterbacking. Sherman predicted wins this weekend for Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Carolina and Philadelphia. He doesn't foresee Baltimore getting past the Steelers next week, but it's hard to tell that when you listen to him rave about the Ravens.
"I just think the Ravens are a wrecking machine right now,'' Sherman said. "They're a dominating team on defense and they'll do enough on offense to move the ball. They're a strong contender for this thing. I'm giving them an edge this weekend at Tennessee because they're a little bit better at the skill positions of receiver and tight end than the Titans. I think the Ravens defense will take Tennessee's receivers out of it and force them to run the football.''
In the other two divisional-round games, Sherman, like others, can't muster much support for the two warm-weather teams (Arizona and San Diego) that have to fly east and play in the colder climates of Charlotte and Pittsburgh, respectively.
"Not having Anquan Boldin healthy really hurts Arizona, and they just don't have the mindset to play in cold weather,'' he said. "When they go on the road, and it's cold, they're not the same team as they are at home. I think the buzzsaw is going to hit them and it's going to be over early at Carolina.
"And it'll be a tough game for San Diego to win in that stadium, in that Pittsburgh weather. That Steelers defense is too good. It's better even than Baltimore's defense. Which is why I like the Steelers next week, because their defense is too strong for Baltimore's offense. And if it would be Pittsburgh at Tennessee, I still like the Steelers because of what the Titans did last month when they beat Pittsburgh, stomping on their Terrible Towel. You don't do that stuff. That'll come back to haunt them. You never give your opponent something like that to use against you in the future.''
• Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis saw more of the NFL's elite eight teams this season than he would have preferred. The Bengals played seven games against five of the eight divisional round teams, going 0-7. Cincinnati opened the season at Baltimore, home against Tennessee, and at the Giants, losing all of them, although the Bengals did take New York into overtime. Cincinnati also faced Philadelphia, Pittsburgh twice, and the Ravens again.
"What jumps out at you is that so many of these teams play great defense,'' said Lewis, the former Ravens and Commanders defensive coordinator. "The Giants, Philly, Tennessee, Baltimore and Pittsburgh all have overpowering defenses. The other common factor is that so many of these teams can run the football. The majority of them anyway. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Carolina, New York and San Diego can all run the ball, even if the Steelers haven't run as much as usual this year.
"[That] shortens the game. When you run the ball and play defense the way these teams do -- and even Philly with its short passing game, which is almost an extension of its running game -- you don't get into those shootout-type games. You already have a lot of the bases covered.''
Given that Lewis was the Ravens defensive coordinator when they made their surprising run to the Super Bowl title in 2000, I was eager to know if he saw echoes of that Baltimore team in this year's club, as so many have already noted. Could the Ravens ride the same formula of defense, a clock-killing running game and mistake-free quarterbacking to another ring, with the unflappable Flacco in the role that was then played by veteran quarterback Trent Dilfer?
"There's no question they have the same components as that team,'' Lewis said. "They really do. Joe's a more accurate passer than Trent, but Trent didn't make mistakes that year. He didn't throw interceptions. He threw it down the field vertically, and either we caught it or we got a pass interference call our way. He didn't give us bad field position all year.
"Baltimore is a dangerous team because they haven't been out of any games here at the end, except in the (Week 11) Giants game. And when you play a team a second time, like this rematch against Tennessee, veteran players are going to be ready to go. To me, the Ravens are the ones who really have the right mindset. They have something special going, and they're coached by a guy who's going to let them win. I just wonder if Kerry Collins can continue to carry Tennessee? I don't know. He's going to get hit in the face a couple times this week. Let's see how he handles that.''
The potential landmines the Giants must be aware of as they prepare to defend their championship this month center on some off-field issues, Lewis said.
"If the Giants get beyond this week, they'll be fine,'' he said. "But if they get tripped up by anything it might be by the stuff that sometimes gets a defending champion, the Super Bowl talk, or the talk of coaches leaving for other jobs. That stuff gets in the way sometimes of a team reaching its goals.''
• Houston Texans director of pro personnel Brian Gardner is yet another member of the growing Ravens fan club this month. The Texans lost at home to Baltimore in Week 10, after opening the season with road losses at Pittsburgh and at Tennessee. The Texans beat the Titans in Houston in Week 15, and Gardner can't help but conjure up comparisons to the 2000 Ravens when he assesses Baltimore's chances.
"The thing with Baltimore is, you've seen them go down this path before,'' Gardner said. "They've won this way before, having to go on the road in the playoffs, and playing a physical style game, running the ball, and not putting the quarterback in the position of having to do too much. A defensive-minded team like them, they're difficult to knock out.
"I'm just extremely impressed with the Ravens. I'm intrigued by them, and by this weekend's matchup with Tennessee. The Titans are a good football team, but Baltimore knows how to win at this style of game.''
• I asked Commanders middle linebacker London Fletcher to focus his analysis on the Eagles-Giants matchup, given that Washington played each team twice, going 0-2 against New York, but sweeping the Eagles, including a 10-3 win at home in Week 16 -- the loss that most thought all but eliminated Philadelphia from the playoff chase.
"Both teams know each other so well, so there won't be any surprises,'' Fletcher said Friday morning. "The Eagles are a very dangerous team right now. That defense is playing lights out, creating turnovers, scoring, doing it all. And I think the Eagles are playing very loose and very confident because they are playing with house money at this point. There's more pressure on the Giants this weekend because they're at home and they're the defending Super Bowl champs. But don't discount New York. They've got a great defense and a great running game, and they're used to playing in big games now.''
Fletcher, however, is one of the few NFL figures I interviewed who made a point of not letting me off the phone until he had registered his belief in the Super Bowl chances of No. 2 seed Carolina.
"I really like Carolina's team,'' he said. "The running game with those two explosive running backs, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. And then there's the Steve Smith factor. The things he creates are so valuable. Because if you double cover him, you leave yourself open to their running game. And that Panthers defense is a little underrated as well. Carolina is a very dangerous team, and it wouldn't be surprising at all if they're representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.''
• Lastly, I spoke with one longtime AFC personnel man who warned me not to forget about the Chargers, they of the 9-8 record and the tried and true chip on their shoulder.
"They're a hot team right now,'' the AFC personnel man said. "And they feel like it's them against the world, and that's a great mentality to have in the playoffs. That's what the Giants had last year. For them, it's very important to protect Philip Rivers this week at Pittsburgh. If they can, they've got a real chance. They can't get themselves into third and long and let the Steelers outside linebackers to wreak havoc. That's going to be critical. Rivers is the guy. Protect him, keep it close, and don't make any big mistakes, and San Diego could win that game.''
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/don_banks/01/09/divisional/1.html
