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Now, on with the show, with five teams I liked last weekend, and three I didn't.
The five teams I liked
1. Miami. It started before the draft. In 2006 tight end Anthony Fasano was the 53rd player picked in the draft, by Dallas. In 2007 linebacker Akin Ayodele started 14 games for Dallas. The Dolphins acquired those two players for the 100th pick in the 2008 draft, their fourth-rounder. Are either of those guys great players? No. But Bill Parcells always believes in improving every spot on the roster, 1 through 53, and this trade was part of that.
Miami drafted a franchise tackle who could be in the lineup for the next 10 years, and it might have gotten its quarterback of the future with an absolute steal in Chad Henne at 57 -- using the pick acquired in the Chris Chambers trade to San Diego last season. The roster churns. Lucky for the Dolphins no one came up with a great offer for Jason Taylor.
2. Philadelphia. The Eagles always ask for too much in trade. Always. They couldn't get rid of Lito Sheppard last weekend, but that was primarily because Sheppard, who gets hurt too much, wants a new contract even though he has four years left on his current one. But the Eagles were able to auction off the 19th pick in the draft for a mind-boggling sum, which they got from Carolina -- second- and fourth-round picks this year and the Panthers' first-round pick next year.
On the draft-trade chart, the 19th-overall pick is worth 875 points. If you assign Carolina an average 2008 season and give them the 16th pick in the first round next year, this trade will be worth 1,546 points on the trade chart -- almost double what the 19th pick is worth. In terms of real additions this year, DeSean Jackson as a receiver/returner with the 49th pick is excellent value.
3. Minnesota. In a span of five days, the Vikings added the best available pass-rusher in football (Jared Allen), the best safety in the draft (Tyrell Johnson of Arkansas State), and a good challenger to put a little heat on Tarvaris Jackson, USC quarterback John David Booty.
Like I've said throughout this Allen deal, long-term it has some real risks I would not have taken. But on opening day 2008, one of the top five defenses in football will have the biggest impact acquisition of the offseason in Allen, and it will also have either the best special-teams gunner or best young tackling safety in football in Johnson.
4. Arizona. Value City. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, picked at 16, was the top-rated corner on the draft boards of two very smart personnel guys who I know. Calais Campbell (50) was taken to reproduce the pass-rush flash of Calvin Pace, and Early Doucet (81) lasted waaaaay too long after a starry career but groin-ravaged senior year at LSU. Could the Cards deal Anquan Boldin to Washington or Dallas this summer? (Well, not Washington anymore, not with the 'Skins drafting Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly.) Stay tuned.
5. Jacksonville. I christen this draft the "We Are Desperate To Sack Peyton Manning and Will Sell Our Souls to Do So Draft." The Jags started the weekend with six picks in the top 150 of the draft. They exited the weekend with two players, and both are former SEC defensive ends -- Derrick Harvey of Florida and Quentin Groves of Auburn, picked at eight and 52, respectively. If you're going to pay for quality, you can't be afraid, and Jag GM James Harris was not on Saturday.
The three teams I didn't like:
1. Chicago. The Bears had 12 draft choices this year. No quarterback picked. Chicago had nine draft choices in 2007. No quarterback picked. Chicago had seven draft choices in 2006. Three years with a quarterback need, 28 draft choices, and never a passer picked. This isn't odd. It's negligent.
The thing that drives me craziest about the draft is when you see a team with talent not doing enough to bolster the most important position on the field, over and over and over again. With Chad Henne, who absolutely should have been a first-rounder, and solid guy Brian Brohm on the board, the Bears passed on both and picked a very productive running back from Tulane, Matt Forte.
There's a slight chance -- maybe 20 or 25 percent, I'd say -- that the Bears have their quarterback of the future on the roster in either Rex Grossman or Kyle Orton. Maybe. But whether you believe it or not, you have to admit it's silly not to backstop the most important position in sports. What is it about the undying love of Grossman that makes Chicago unable or unwilling to turn the page?
2. Cincinnati. For one reason: The Bengals stubbornly turned down Washington's offer of first- and third-round picks for Chad Johnson (and the ransom could have gone higher, to a second-rounder with decent production by Johnson and a first-rounder if he starred in Washington). I am in full agreement that what Johnson is doing is selfish and the team should not stand for it. But I guess this would be my question -- if Johnson were a decent, quiet, all-team guy at age 30, wouldn't you think it wise to deal him for first- and second-round picks. I sure would.
3. Tennessee. I should call this the Matt Millen Memorial Wide Receiver Stat of the Week, in honor of the Detroit executive who picked wide receivers in the top 10 of the draft in three consecutive years: The Tennessee Titans have taken a running back in the top 50 picks of the draft three years in a row -- Chris Johnson in 2008 (24th overall), Chris Henry in 2007 (50th), and LenDale White in 2006 (45th). I'm not really interested in hearing an explanation on that. It's just wrong.
Stat of the Week
My new BFF and radio partner on Sirius NFL Radio, Randy Cross, had an interesting observation on the air the other day about how football players feel about the money they make. "At any given time,'' he said, "I'd say about a third of all players are unhappy with their contracts.''
It left me wondering what the Minnesota Vikings players, particularly on defense, feel about the six-year, $73.3 million contract Jared Allen signed after being acquired from the Chiefs. Check out the stat box to the right.
So Allen will make $16.2 million in 2008. The combined 2008 salaries of the six best incumbent Minnesota defensive players -- cornerback Antoine Winfield, linebackers Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson, safety Darren Sharper, and tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams -- is $16.9 million.
Two other points about the contract:
• By all appearances Allen appears to have tamed the off-field problems that resulted in his two driving-while-impaired arrests while in Kansas City. But if Allen, who has two strikes against him in the NFL's substance-abuse program, has another slipup, it will be tremendously costly to him -- depending on when it occurs.
His 2009 contract is injury-guaranteed, meaning if he can't play because of a football injury, he'll get his money. But if he can't play because of an off-field problem, the team can cut him and be off the hook for the rest of the contract. His 2010 roster bonus is guaranteed for injury only, but will have to be paid if he is on the Vikings' roster on opening day 2009. So the key for Allen to be a very rich man is to be a Viking in Week One of 2009. If he isn't, it could cost him $57 million.
• Moral of the story, in a quote from Kansas City president Carl Peterson: "The Chiefs are happy with the deal, the Vikings are happy with the deal, and I'm sure Jared Allen is very, very happy with the deal.''
Ten Things I Think I Think
1. I think you did the right thing by staying put, Jerry Jones, and not selling the farm for Darren McFadden.
It's simple. Dallas would not have been able to get McFadden the touches to justify the pick if Jones had paid the high price to go up to get him. McFadden would have had, at most, 175 rushes and receptions with a healthy Marion Barber in the backfield with him. Imagine paying a guy $25 million guaranteed to be a backup.
2. I think -- I guess -- Jerry Reese didn't think he got enough value from New Orleans for Jeremy Shockey. I would think an unhappy tight end who's missed time with injuries would be worth second- and sixth-round draft picks (or a second this year and a fifth next year). I like Reese a lot, but I think he'll think back on this moment in October and say, "I really should have taken that deal for Shockey.''
3. I think these are my quick-hit observations of the TV weekend:
a. Wendi Nix, in Kansas City for ESPN, said in a predraft show that the Chiefs would be "comfortable'' if 75 percent of the team's draftees were in the starting lineup by opening day. Comfortable? Are you kidding? Nine starters from one draft, playing in the 22-person starting lineup for any team? Comfortable is not the right way to put it. More like "best draft in NFL history.''
b. Why is the lead item on the ESPN scroll during the first hour of the predraft show about Brett Favre appearing on the cover of the Madden video game? Other than pimping a sponsor, what remote news value does that have?
c. ESPN did not have a team of people covering the draft. It had an armada.
d. Ron Jaworski had the best analysis of the pre-show. It was about Joe Flacco, and about how the complex zone blitz of Villanova really bothered him. I mean, when a guy gives you a tidbit from Delaware-Villanova, you've got to respect that.
e. Steve Young had one of the more interesting quotes of the day, when discussing what the Titans should do at number 24 in the first round. "Vince Young has done everything you could ask of a young quarterback,'' he said. Oh, he has? His two-year QB rating: 69.0. Touchdowns: 21. Interceptions: 30. Passing yards per game: 158.
f. I missed most of the NFL Network Saturday telecast, which I heard had some really good points, including Adam Schefter calling every pick before Roger Goodell hit the podium, and Mike Mayock starring in his first-round picks. But I did see where the Network had Brian Billick talk about the "art of evaluating quarterbacks.'' Uh, isn't that the reason Billick is not the coach of the Ravens anymore? Because he didn't do a very good job of evaluating quarterbacks?
g. Jag-warz, announcers. Please. Please! Not Jag-wires. How can you pronounce it Jag-wires? There is no long i sound. There is no i.
4. I think Matt Ryan has some idea, but not a lot, about what he's gotten himself into with this replacing Mike Vick business. On Saturday I read a few of the message boards that Falcons "fans'' log on to, and some of the posts are, shall we say, intense. There's still an awful lot of Michael Vick emotion in that city.
5. I think I like San Diego picking cornerback Antoine Cason 27th overall, because after losing Drayton Florence in free-agency, the Chargers were down to two starting-caliber cornerbacks. GM A.J. Smith knew they had to fortify the spot even if it meant they'd be paying a third corner a lot of dough. "We believe in having three starting corners,'' he said Saturday night. So do I. Look at the percentage of the snaps corners play on each team. I bet you'll find half the teams in the league have three corners playing at least 50 percent of the plays, maybe more.
6. I think, if you gave him sodium pentathol, Chris Long would tell you he wishes he had gone to the Patriots, even if it would have cost him a lot of money to do so.
7. I think the Ravens' draft, obviously, will ultimately be judged on whether Joe Flacco can play or not. And if you've been reading this site, you know I thought the Ravens' guy was Chad Henne, not Flacco. Someday, maybe I'll get the truth on that one, but I think it came down to the Ravens having an internal debate on whether to pick Henne or Flacco, and the offensive coordinator thought Flacco's upside was significantly better.
I think he might struggle. The edge Henne had was that he played quarterback for four years as a starter at a big program, Michigan, and Baltimore is a team that needs a quarterback to play now. How will Flacco be more pro-ready than Henne? He won't be. It'll be an interesting experiment.
8. I think congratulations are in order for Len Pasquarelli, who won the prestigious McCann Award for distinguished service to our profession and will be honored in August at the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Lenny's recuperating from an illness at home in suburban Atlanta, and he's been missed out on the combine/draft trail this offseason.
Len has always been appointment reading for me, the most important NFL beat guy for me to keep up with every day. No one in our business works harder and writes as often and as coherently. I know it's killing him to not be working now. But if you're reading this, Lenny, I've got some sage advice for you: The NFL will still be here when you get back. And one other thing: You're missed. Seriously missed.
9. I think I've got two sporting bets on whether Brett Favre plays again. I say no. He'd better not play. I've got $3 at stake here.
LINK
Now, on with the show, with five teams I liked last weekend, and three I didn't.
The five teams I liked
1. Miami. It started before the draft. In 2006 tight end Anthony Fasano was the 53rd player picked in the draft, by Dallas. In 2007 linebacker Akin Ayodele started 14 games for Dallas. The Dolphins acquired those two players for the 100th pick in the 2008 draft, their fourth-rounder. Are either of those guys great players? No. But Bill Parcells always believes in improving every spot on the roster, 1 through 53, and this trade was part of that.
Miami drafted a franchise tackle who could be in the lineup for the next 10 years, and it might have gotten its quarterback of the future with an absolute steal in Chad Henne at 57 -- using the pick acquired in the Chris Chambers trade to San Diego last season. The roster churns. Lucky for the Dolphins no one came up with a great offer for Jason Taylor.
2. Philadelphia. The Eagles always ask for too much in trade. Always. They couldn't get rid of Lito Sheppard last weekend, but that was primarily because Sheppard, who gets hurt too much, wants a new contract even though he has four years left on his current one. But the Eagles were able to auction off the 19th pick in the draft for a mind-boggling sum, which they got from Carolina -- second- and fourth-round picks this year and the Panthers' first-round pick next year.
On the draft-trade chart, the 19th-overall pick is worth 875 points. If you assign Carolina an average 2008 season and give them the 16th pick in the first round next year, this trade will be worth 1,546 points on the trade chart -- almost double what the 19th pick is worth. In terms of real additions this year, DeSean Jackson as a receiver/returner with the 49th pick is excellent value.
3. Minnesota. In a span of five days, the Vikings added the best available pass-rusher in football (Jared Allen), the best safety in the draft (Tyrell Johnson of Arkansas State), and a good challenger to put a little heat on Tarvaris Jackson, USC quarterback John David Booty.
Like I've said throughout this Allen deal, long-term it has some real risks I would not have taken. But on opening day 2008, one of the top five defenses in football will have the biggest impact acquisition of the offseason in Allen, and it will also have either the best special-teams gunner or best young tackling safety in football in Johnson.
4. Arizona. Value City. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, picked at 16, was the top-rated corner on the draft boards of two very smart personnel guys who I know. Calais Campbell (50) was taken to reproduce the pass-rush flash of Calvin Pace, and Early Doucet (81) lasted waaaaay too long after a starry career but groin-ravaged senior year at LSU. Could the Cards deal Anquan Boldin to Washington or Dallas this summer? (Well, not Washington anymore, not with the 'Skins drafting Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly.) Stay tuned.
5. Jacksonville. I christen this draft the "We Are Desperate To Sack Peyton Manning and Will Sell Our Souls to Do So Draft." The Jags started the weekend with six picks in the top 150 of the draft. They exited the weekend with two players, and both are former SEC defensive ends -- Derrick Harvey of Florida and Quentin Groves of Auburn, picked at eight and 52, respectively. If you're going to pay for quality, you can't be afraid, and Jag GM James Harris was not on Saturday.
The three teams I didn't like:
1. Chicago. The Bears had 12 draft choices this year. No quarterback picked. Chicago had nine draft choices in 2007. No quarterback picked. Chicago had seven draft choices in 2006. Three years with a quarterback need, 28 draft choices, and never a passer picked. This isn't odd. It's negligent.
The thing that drives me craziest about the draft is when you see a team with talent not doing enough to bolster the most important position on the field, over and over and over again. With Chad Henne, who absolutely should have been a first-rounder, and solid guy Brian Brohm on the board, the Bears passed on both and picked a very productive running back from Tulane, Matt Forte.
There's a slight chance -- maybe 20 or 25 percent, I'd say -- that the Bears have their quarterback of the future on the roster in either Rex Grossman or Kyle Orton. Maybe. But whether you believe it or not, you have to admit it's silly not to backstop the most important position in sports. What is it about the undying love of Grossman that makes Chicago unable or unwilling to turn the page?
2. Cincinnati. For one reason: The Bengals stubbornly turned down Washington's offer of first- and third-round picks for Chad Johnson (and the ransom could have gone higher, to a second-rounder with decent production by Johnson and a first-rounder if he starred in Washington). I am in full agreement that what Johnson is doing is selfish and the team should not stand for it. But I guess this would be my question -- if Johnson were a decent, quiet, all-team guy at age 30, wouldn't you think it wise to deal him for first- and second-round picks. I sure would.
3. Tennessee. I should call this the Matt Millen Memorial Wide Receiver Stat of the Week, in honor of the Detroit executive who picked wide receivers in the top 10 of the draft in three consecutive years: The Tennessee Titans have taken a running back in the top 50 picks of the draft three years in a row -- Chris Johnson in 2008 (24th overall), Chris Henry in 2007 (50th), and LenDale White in 2006 (45th). I'm not really interested in hearing an explanation on that. It's just wrong.
Stat of the Week
My new BFF and radio partner on Sirius NFL Radio, Randy Cross, had an interesting observation on the air the other day about how football players feel about the money they make. "At any given time,'' he said, "I'd say about a third of all players are unhappy with their contracts.''
It left me wondering what the Minnesota Vikings players, particularly on defense, feel about the six-year, $73.3 million contract Jared Allen signed after being acquired from the Chiefs. Check out the stat box to the right.
So Allen will make $16.2 million in 2008. The combined 2008 salaries of the six best incumbent Minnesota defensive players -- cornerback Antoine Winfield, linebackers Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson, safety Darren Sharper, and tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams -- is $16.9 million.
Two other points about the contract:
• By all appearances Allen appears to have tamed the off-field problems that resulted in his two driving-while-impaired arrests while in Kansas City. But if Allen, who has two strikes against him in the NFL's substance-abuse program, has another slipup, it will be tremendously costly to him -- depending on when it occurs.
His 2009 contract is injury-guaranteed, meaning if he can't play because of a football injury, he'll get his money. But if he can't play because of an off-field problem, the team can cut him and be off the hook for the rest of the contract. His 2010 roster bonus is guaranteed for injury only, but will have to be paid if he is on the Vikings' roster on opening day 2009. So the key for Allen to be a very rich man is to be a Viking in Week One of 2009. If he isn't, it could cost him $57 million.
• Moral of the story, in a quote from Kansas City president Carl Peterson: "The Chiefs are happy with the deal, the Vikings are happy with the deal, and I'm sure Jared Allen is very, very happy with the deal.''
Ten Things I Think I Think
1. I think you did the right thing by staying put, Jerry Jones, and not selling the farm for Darren McFadden.
It's simple. Dallas would not have been able to get McFadden the touches to justify the pick if Jones had paid the high price to go up to get him. McFadden would have had, at most, 175 rushes and receptions with a healthy Marion Barber in the backfield with him. Imagine paying a guy $25 million guaranteed to be a backup.
2. I think -- I guess -- Jerry Reese didn't think he got enough value from New Orleans for Jeremy Shockey. I would think an unhappy tight end who's missed time with injuries would be worth second- and sixth-round draft picks (or a second this year and a fifth next year). I like Reese a lot, but I think he'll think back on this moment in October and say, "I really should have taken that deal for Shockey.''
3. I think these are my quick-hit observations of the TV weekend:
a. Wendi Nix, in Kansas City for ESPN, said in a predraft show that the Chiefs would be "comfortable'' if 75 percent of the team's draftees were in the starting lineup by opening day. Comfortable? Are you kidding? Nine starters from one draft, playing in the 22-person starting lineup for any team? Comfortable is not the right way to put it. More like "best draft in NFL history.''
b. Why is the lead item on the ESPN scroll during the first hour of the predraft show about Brett Favre appearing on the cover of the Madden video game? Other than pimping a sponsor, what remote news value does that have?
c. ESPN did not have a team of people covering the draft. It had an armada.
d. Ron Jaworski had the best analysis of the pre-show. It was about Joe Flacco, and about how the complex zone blitz of Villanova really bothered him. I mean, when a guy gives you a tidbit from Delaware-Villanova, you've got to respect that.
e. Steve Young had one of the more interesting quotes of the day, when discussing what the Titans should do at number 24 in the first round. "Vince Young has done everything you could ask of a young quarterback,'' he said. Oh, he has? His two-year QB rating: 69.0. Touchdowns: 21. Interceptions: 30. Passing yards per game: 158.
f. I missed most of the NFL Network Saturday telecast, which I heard had some really good points, including Adam Schefter calling every pick before Roger Goodell hit the podium, and Mike Mayock starring in his first-round picks. But I did see where the Network had Brian Billick talk about the "art of evaluating quarterbacks.'' Uh, isn't that the reason Billick is not the coach of the Ravens anymore? Because he didn't do a very good job of evaluating quarterbacks?
g. Jag-warz, announcers. Please. Please! Not Jag-wires. How can you pronounce it Jag-wires? There is no long i sound. There is no i.
4. I think Matt Ryan has some idea, but not a lot, about what he's gotten himself into with this replacing Mike Vick business. On Saturday I read a few of the message boards that Falcons "fans'' log on to, and some of the posts are, shall we say, intense. There's still an awful lot of Michael Vick emotion in that city.
5. I think I like San Diego picking cornerback Antoine Cason 27th overall, because after losing Drayton Florence in free-agency, the Chargers were down to two starting-caliber cornerbacks. GM A.J. Smith knew they had to fortify the spot even if it meant they'd be paying a third corner a lot of dough. "We believe in having three starting corners,'' he said Saturday night. So do I. Look at the percentage of the snaps corners play on each team. I bet you'll find half the teams in the league have three corners playing at least 50 percent of the plays, maybe more.
6. I think, if you gave him sodium pentathol, Chris Long would tell you he wishes he had gone to the Patriots, even if it would have cost him a lot of money to do so.
7. I think the Ravens' draft, obviously, will ultimately be judged on whether Joe Flacco can play or not. And if you've been reading this site, you know I thought the Ravens' guy was Chad Henne, not Flacco. Someday, maybe I'll get the truth on that one, but I think it came down to the Ravens having an internal debate on whether to pick Henne or Flacco, and the offensive coordinator thought Flacco's upside was significantly better.
I think he might struggle. The edge Henne had was that he played quarterback for four years as a starter at a big program, Michigan, and Baltimore is a team that needs a quarterback to play now. How will Flacco be more pro-ready than Henne? He won't be. It'll be an interesting experiment.
8. I think congratulations are in order for Len Pasquarelli, who won the prestigious McCann Award for distinguished service to our profession and will be honored in August at the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Lenny's recuperating from an illness at home in suburban Atlanta, and he's been missed out on the combine/draft trail this offseason.
Len has always been appointment reading for me, the most important NFL beat guy for me to keep up with every day. No one in our business works harder and writes as often and as coherently. I know it's killing him to not be working now. But if you're reading this, Lenny, I've got some sage advice for you: The NFL will still be here when you get back. And one other thing: You're missed. Seriously missed.
9. I think I've got two sporting bets on whether Brett Favre plays again. I say no. He'd better not play. I've got $3 at stake here.
LINK
