Significance of the running game in today's NFL

[Brooksey]

Unfortunately, my ideas are pretty tightly wedded to what actually happens in the games. If I could not get caught up in those realities, I would. I just want to see us do what's most likely to be effective.

I know I'm in the vast minority when it comes to not really caring particularly about balance (within reason) or about who's running the ball. I'm ok with that.

I would be interesting in knowing how time of possession on offense benefits a defense. Just guessing blindly, I'd assume the impact is measurable, but not all that significant. But I'm all for whatever's going to let us defend the pass better next season. Whether that's scheme or personnel or coaching, whatever it is, I'm in.

I'm assuming you played this game before, what position out of curiosity?

 

[maxdallasfan]

After Seattle wins another SB, teams will be moving back to the concept of physical defenses.

 

[AdamJT13]

Again, you can't get the concept that YPC is not the correct measurement of a rushing threat, especially on a per game basis.

I didn't say it was. I said YPC within a game is virtually meaningless when it comes to deciding which team wins or loses, and the numbers prove that.

 

[AdamJT13]

Wrong. You want to mathematically point to statistics as proof of something, but then admit the you have no way to measure the impact a rushing threat on passing effectively.

I certainly do have a way to measure it, using several definitions of a "rushing threat." I'm just waiting for you to tell me yours, so I can disprove that, too. But so far, you've been too afraid to even do that.

Defenses don't wait until the offense has gashed them for large amounts of yards before they adjust to stop the run.

So when do they do that? How do they make that decision? It obviously (according to you) cannot be based on the opponent's rushing attempts, rushing yards or play-calling tendencies, either within that game or in previous games, and (according to you) it cannot be based on who the running back(s) and quarterback are. So what it is based on?

 

[AdamJT13]

I must be as well because it makes little sense. If running can benefit the passing game then it importance to a team in scoring points and winning games then the run game was a factor in the win.
Anytime a part of your offense can force the opponent to alter their defense be it pass or run then it is that very thing that is making a difference in winning and losing

The benefits of the running game can be had no matter whether you run the ball well or run the ball poorly. Running the ball well (and stopping the run well) is not significantly better than running the ball poorly or stopping the run poorly, in terms of helping you win games. Whether you average 3.0 yards per carry or 5.0 yards per carry, and whether you allow 3.0 or 5.0, your chances of winning almost always come down to how well you pass and stop the pass.

 

[AdamJT13]

Adam has said that defenses should never defend the run at the expense of pass coverage.

I have never said that.

 

[links18]

Without a running game, I doubt the Packers game would have been as close as it was.

 

[Idgit]

I'm assuming you played this game before, what position out of curiosity?

Middle linebacker and left guard. Only at the high school level.

 

[coult44]

Baltimore Dallas Denver all out rushed their opponents last weekend. They all lost. Baltimore had 140 rushing yards to 14 for New England. Didnt matter. Teams that average 2 more yards rushing per play than their opponent, win 53% of the time. Compared that to teams that average 2 more yards passing per play than their opponent , win 92% of the time.

To me this just shows why teams are moving away from RBs and on to WRs, TEs and QBs. The reason dallas went 13-5 is because tony romo played at an MVP level. If murray prices himself out of town, I think Jerry will let him go. It's just not a position to overpay for anymore.

For the Dallas Cowboys I think the running game is more important than most teams because they have to try to keep the defense off the field. But in that GB game, passing the ball is what put points on the board.

Generally, being able to pass and defend the pass is what wins. Don't get me wrong, a running game helps. But if dallas is going to win in the playoffs, they should emphasize defending the pass this offseason, even if demarco murray is a casualty of that.

Here is a website that really illustrates how much more important passing is in the NFL.

http://thepowerrank.com/2014/01/10/which-nfl-teams-make-and-win-in-the-playoffs/

Tell this to the Marshawn and the Seahawks,

 

[Idgit]

Tell this to the Marshawn and the Seahawks,

You think Marshaw's even on that team next year? Or do they let him walk? I think he's gone after the season.

They'll keep that secondary, though.

 

[coult44]

You think Marshaw's even on that team next year? Or do they let him walk? I think he's gone after the season.

They'll keep that secondary, though.

Peter and the fans here love him. He's either going to be in Seattle, or retired. But without him last year they don't win a SB, that's the amount if weight this thread title holds...

 

[Idgit]

Peter and the fans here love him. He's either going to be in Seattle, or retired. But without him last year they don't win a SB, that's the amount if weight this thread title holds...

I've heard otherwise, but either way, it doesn't change the fact that they're reportedly going to part ways with him, anyway. You don't do that with players you need on your roster in order to win. You don't even let it get reported.

 

[TrailBlazer]

Tell this to the Marshawn and the Seahawks,

We're not looking at just one team. We're looking at a much bigger picture. The numbers don't lie. Seahawks pass efficiently and defend the pass better than any team in the league. Without those 2 things, they're not where they are.

 

[coult44]

We're not looking at just one team. We're looking at a much bigger picture. The numbers don't lie. Seahawks pass efficiently and defend the pass better than any team in the league. Without those 2 things, they're not where they are.

They have both of those things because of Lynch...

 

[jobberone]

I certainly do have a way to measure it, using several definitions of a "rushing threat." I'm just waiting for you to tell me yours, so I can disprove that, too. But so far, you've been too afraid to even do that.



So when do they do that? How do they make that decision? It obviously (according to you) cannot be based on the opponent's rushing attempts, rushing yards or play-calling tendencies, either within that game or in previous games, and (according to you) it cannot be based on who the running back(s) and quarterback are. So what it is based on?

I can't answer for him but for me you can look at how defenses react to a team's strengths and weaknesses. It didn't take long for teams to stack the box and even state they weren't going to allow our running game to beat them. You look at that and correlate it with points scored and your QBs stats. Romo even said the running game was making the team better, his job easier, and they were creating more problems for opposing offenses while scoring more. One stat you can look at is how often a team wins when it rushes for X yards or a player rushes for X yards. It won't be 100% predictive but should show a high correlation. I don't really think there is one stat that tells the entire story. I'd be interested in some definitive stats with a high correlation to an effective running game which predicts a highly successful team.

The question is why did an 8-8 team evolve into a 12-4 team.

 

[jobberone]

I usually look at points/series for this comparison. Offensively, we went from 4th (2.25) in the league last year to 2nd (2.62) this year. And from 30th (2.31) on defense to 16th (1.89). So, yeah, I guess you're right. It's about even the improvement between the offense and the defense over last season.

I think you're right about the defensive improvement which is 80 points but I can't isolate the offense from the defense. How they affect one another is fairly complex in one view.

 

[AdamJT13]

One stat you can look at is how often a team wins when it rushes for X yards or a player rushes for X yards. It won't be 100% predictive but should show a high correlation.

The problem with that is that teams run more when they're already ahead, which adds to their total rushing yards (and adds to a player's rushing yards). When teams are already behind, they have to abandon the run late in the game to try to catch up, and that makes their rushing yardage naturally lower. There have been plenty of studies done examining rushing and passing in various situations throughout games, and it's clear that total rushing yards is not WHY teams win but BECAUSE teams are already winning.

The question is why did an 8-8 team evolve into a 12-4 team.

Mostly because we were much better at passing and stopping the pass. The team that passed more effectively won all 18 of our games this season. The team with the higher YPC went 9-9.

 

[jobberone]

The problem with that is that teams run more when they're already ahead, which adds to their total rushing yards (and adds to a player's rushing yards). When teams are already behind, they have to abandon the run late in the game to try to catch up, and that makes their rushing yardage naturally lower. There have been plenty of studies done examining rushing and passing in various situations throughout games, and it's clear that total rushing yards is not WHY teams win but BECAUSE teams are already winning.




Mostly because we were much better at passing and stopping the pass. The team that passed more effectively won all 18 of our games this season. The team with the higher YPC went 9-9.

We didn't run the ball when we were ahead all the time. We ran the ball all the time even when I was screaming to throw it on first down more. So while I agree with you in general, that doesn't fit the Cowboys nor any run first team like the Balt team or say Sea. I do agree if you are down two TDs late then you are going to pass a lot more. Passing wins games but running can set the passing game up.

There used to be plenty of instances where teams ran to win and they still do somewhat. So total rushing yards are predictive of winning and it's not always because teams are running because they are ahead. In fact most teams never take there foot off the gas and completely run games out until very late in the game ahead substantially. But in general you are correct. But you can't say all teams do as you say. Not anymore. Some teams are going to run the ball then pass the ball more effectively for it. That's not the only way to win and in fact most teams don't do it that way most of the time.

Passing diff still wins in this league but running the ball can have a huge effect on that. A team that can run the ball forcing safeties to creep up into the box AND still pass the ball effectively are much more dangerous than a one dimensional team. Which we've been for some time until this year. My 2 cents.

Everyone have a good night.

 

[TheFinisher]

Amazing to me how some can attempt to minimalize what our running game did for us this season when we just had the best season in 2 decades.

 

[Idgit]

Amazing to me how some can attempt to minimalize what our running game did for us this season when we just had the best season in 2 decades.

You kinda gotta read the whole thread. It's not like people just want to slight running the football.