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http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=NFL&columnid=60&articleid=35149
by Evan Silva
Final Mock: Spiller Goes Sixth
The 2010 NFL Draft is days away, and the rumor mill is red hot in anticipation. More trades are fully expected before the St. Louis Rams go on the clock, but this -- tentatively -- is our final mock draft before the real thing. Leading up to Thursday evening, we'll make changes here if necessary.
The draft will be covered extensively on the Rotoworld news page beginning Thursday afternoon, with Chris Wesseling and myself doing most of the updates throughout the three-day affair. For further analysis and opinions, follow me at @evansilva and Wess at @ChrisWesseling on Twitter.
Also be sure to check Profootballtalk.com for Mike Florio, Gregg Rosenthal, and Michael David Smith's valuable insight.
1. St. Louis Rams - Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford
With no pre-draft contract in place, speculation is inevitable that the Rams will trade out of the No. 1 spot while on the clock, or even move Bradford elsewhere after selecting him. The most likely scenario remains G.M. Billy Devaney hanging tightly to Bradford as St. Louis' franchise savior.
2. Detroit Lions - Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh
The latest buzz has Detroit leaning toward Russell Okung if GM Martin Mayhew executes a move for Albert Haynesworth. We're not bold enough to predict draft-day trades (and Mayhew may well balk if Washington demands the No. 66 pick), so we'll give the Lions the best available player.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy
The most crucial position in the Buccaneers' Tampa-2 defense is three-technique defensive tackle, and McCoy is perhaps the best "three-tech" prospect to emerge from the college ranks since Tommie Harris in 2004. Incumbent Ryan Sims was dreadful in the role last season.
4. Washington Commanders - Oklahoma OT Trent Williams
Okung's track record, strength, and length are more impressive, but superior athleticism makes Williams the better fit for Washington's zone-blocking scheme. With no one on the current roster capable of protecting Donovan McNabb's blind side, left tackle is the Skins' biggest need.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Oklahoma State OT Russell Okung
Oklahoma State led the Big 12 in rushing in each of Okung's four years as a starter, and he let up just one sack as a senior. Only five NFL teams surrendered more sacks than the Chiefs last year. If that keeps up, new offensive coordinator Charlie Weis' pass-first attack will be destined to fail.
6. Seattle Seahawks - Clemson RB C.J. Spiller
In his mocks for NFL.com, longtime Pete Carroll confidant and Jets co-worker Pat Kirwan has consistently predicted that Carroll will draft Spiller. The Seahawks arguably have bigger needs at left tackle, defensive end, and in the secondary, but Spiller's play-making ability is too enticing.
7. Cleveland Browns - Tennessee S Eric Berry
Those covering the team are convinced that the Browns will use their first-round pick on a defensive back, and Berry is the premier, can't-miss prospect at the position. Club president Mike Holmgren will likely wait until the second round (Colt McCoy) to draft his quarterback of the future.
8. Oakland Raiders - Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen
This match may make too much sense for such an illogically-run organization, but Clausen would present an immediate upgrade as Oakland's opening-day starter. JaMarcus Russell weighs 290 pounds, Bruce Gradkowski has a torn pectorals muscle, and Kyle Boller is a UFL-caliber passer.
9. Buffalo Bills - Iowa LT Bryan Bulaga
After years of first-round reaching, Buffalo settles for an NFL-ready player from a pro-style system at a position of glaring need. Bulaga's detractors say he lacks the arm length to succeed at left tackle long term, but he'd still be a day-one starter on the right side in a worst-case scenario.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars - Alabama LB Rolando McClain
Jacksonville has moved Justin Durant to the weak side and will keep Daryl Smith at strong-side linebacker, creating a hole in the middle. A "low-floor" prospect, McClain would give the Jags a formidable nucleus on the interior behind highly promising nose tackle Terrance Knighton.
11. Denver Broncos - Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant
Having just traded away Brandon Marshall, the Broncos are dangerously short on offensive play-makers. Coach Josh McDaniels vehemently defended Bryant's character in a press conference last Friday, and isn't going to enter the season with Jabar Gaffney as his No. 1 wide receiver.
12. Miami Dolphins - Tennessee DT Dan Williams
What good would the signing of inside linebacker Karlos Dansby be if the Dolphins can't keep blockers off their five-year, $43 million investment? A squatty and powerful nose tackle with Wilforkian size, Williams would tag team with Paul Soliai to eat up space on the inside.
13. San Francisco 49ers - Florida CB Joe Haden
Haden confirmed that he's plenty fast by running a 4.4 forty at the Gators' Pro Day, though it may still not be enough to vault him into the top 12 of a talent-rich draft. In San Francisco, Haden would make Nate Clements expendable, or allow the overpaid cornerback to slide to safety.
14. Seattle Seahawks - USC OT Charles Brown
This may be considered a reach, but Pete Carroll's familiarity with Brown and the prospect's ideal athleticism make it a sensible landing spot as Seattle installs Alex Gibbs' zone-blocking scheme. Ray Willis, who struggles in space, lined up at left tackle during the team's pre-draft minicamp.
15. New York Giants - Idaho OG Mike Iupati
Drafting Iupati would improve three positions on the Giants' offensive line, with promising William Beatty entering the lineup at left tackle, David Diehl kicking to the right side, and incumbent left guard Rich Seubert heading to the bench. Seubert was a run-blocking liability in 2009.
16. Tennessee Titans - Georgia Tech DE Derrick Morgan
A clean prospect with no concerns in terms of character, motor, or durability, Morgan projects as an immediate 8-10 sack threat and every-down player. The Titans can address their cornerback need later in a deep draft at the position. 60-snap, 4-3 defensive ends are harder to come by.
17. San Francisco 49ers - Rutgers OT Anthony Davis
Davis deserves to go earlier based on talent alone, but his history of weight fluctuation and enigmatic offseason will likely push him down the board. Acting Niners GM Trent Baalke should do cartwheels if he emerges from round one with Haden and the Scarlet Knights' offensive tackle.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers - Boise State CB Kyle Wilson
The Steelers' biggest need is at cornerback considering the failed William Gay experiment and Ike Taylor's continued maddening inconsistency. Speedy with ball skills, Wilson is versed in press-man and zone coverage, and coordinator Dick LeBeau employs both schemes.
19. Atlanta Falcons - South Florida DE Jason Pierre-Paul
A boom or bust prospect with just one year of D-I football on his resume, Pierre-Paul entered draft season with a top-ten projection, but may be available later than expected. He's failed to interview well, and is short on polish and production. JPP's upside should still keep him in the top 20.
20. Houston Texans - Fresno State RB Ryan Mathews
Dallas Morning News columnist Rick Gosselin, annually among the most accurate draft prognosticators, has projected Mathews inside the top 14 in each of his first two mocks. We don't think Mathews will go so high, but also doubt the Texans would pass on the draft's top big back.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Texas S Earl Thomas
This pick may come down to Thomas and Taylor Mays. Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer loves a thumper in the back end, but Thomas has a big edge in terms of ball skills and range. The Bengals played musical chairs at the safety positions for much of last season.
22. New England Patriots - Georgia Tech WR Demaryius Thomas
Along with linebacker and five-technique end, wideout ranks high on New England's needs list as Randy Moss enters a contract year and Wes Welker recovers from a torn ACL. Thomas would fill a hole at split end in year one, and potentially replace Moss as the Pats' long-term deep threat.
23. Green Bay Packers - Texas DE Sergio Kindle
Kindle's production was down in 2009 and he didn't exhibit ideal initial burst at the Combine, but he is NFL ready as a cover linebacker and blitzer off the edge. The latter qualities encompass exactly what Green Bay needs in a left outside linebacker to complement ROLB Clay Matthews.
24. Philadelphia Eagles - Alabama CB Kareem Jackson
A late riser because he was overshadowed by All-American Javier Arenas and many didn't expect Jackson to declare early for the draft, the Nick Saban disciple is now a consensus first-round prospect. And unlike current Eagles top corner Asante Samuel, Jackson can tackle.
25. Baltimore Ravens - Penn State DE Jared Odrick
Though Odrick lacks double-digit sack upside, he is ideally built to play end in a 3-4, a position at which the Ravens have weakened. Justin Bannan and Dwan Edwards are gone, 35-year-old Trevor Pryce is entering a contract season, and Cory Redding is an injury-prone underachiever.
26. Arizona Cardinals - Missouri LB Sean Weatherspoon
The draft's No. 2 non-rush linebacker, Weatherspoon is a tackle machine with leadership potential and a pro-ready skill set. Arizona is treading on thin ice at inside linebacker, having lost Karlos Dansby and penciled in 32-year-old journeyman Paris Lenon as the starter next to Gerald Hayes.
27. Dallas Cowboys - South Florida S Nate Allen
Better all-around talents are available at this point in the draft, but Dallas may have to reach a bit to fill a void after cutting Ken Hamlin. Allen isn't a big-time hitter, but is intelligent, instinctive, and possesses the necessary "centerfielder" qualities coveted by teams in search of true free safeties.
28. San Diego Chargers - Alabama DT Terrence Cody
A ready-made NFL nose tackle coming from Nick Saban's pro-style scheme, 350-pound wide bodies like Cody are too rare for 3-4 teams to let fall too far. Running back may be a slightly bigger need for San Diego, but Spiller and Mathews are this year's only top-30 talents at the position.
29. New York Jets - TCU DE Jerry Hughes
League sources tell the NY Daily News that the Jets intend to address their defensive front seven with the 29th overall pick. Though he lacks ideal height at just under 6-foot-2, Hughes was insanely productive in college and would help the Jets' fan base forget about Vernon Gholston.
30. Minnesota Vikings - Florida C Maurkice Pouncey
The Vikings' run blocking fell apart last season, as 32-year-old Steve Hutchinson began to show his age and center John Sullivan proved a replacement-level talent. Pouncey would be a major upgrade over Sullivan in year one, and eventually succeed Hutchinson as Minnesota's long-term left guard.
31. Indianapolis Colts - Michigan DE Brandon Graham
Graham is an extremely popular player among fans because of his relentless style of play and elite production, but NFL evaluators consider him a risk due to a stocky build and short arms. Relative to most teams, the Colts are less concerned with length when it comes to edge rushers.
32. New Orleans Saints - Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham
Coming off a serious knee injury and lacking NFL-ready blocking ability, Gresham falls short of the profile for a solid first-round pick. The Saints, though, are always open to adding offensive play-makers. Starter Jeremy Shockey is injury prone, and David Thomas is in a contract year.
Just Missed: UMass OT Vladimir Ducasse, USC S Taylor Mays, Maryland OT Bruce Campbell, USC DE Everson Griffen, Florida DE Carlos Dunlap, Florida State CB Patrick Robinson, UCLA DT Brian Price, Rutgers CB Devin McCourty, Notre Dame WR Golden Tate, Virginia CB Chris Cook, Northwestern DE Corey Wootton, Cal RB Jahvid Best, TCU LB Daryl Washington, Illinois WR Arrelious Benn, Iowa CB Amari Spievey, USC WR Damian Williams, Georgia Tech RB Jonathan Dwyer, Clemson DE Ricky Sapp, Arizona TE Rob Gronkowski, LSU S Chad Jones, Cincinnati WR Mardy Gilyard, Florida TE Aaron Hernandez, Texas QB Colt McCoy
by Evan Silva
Final Mock: Spiller Goes Sixth
The 2010 NFL Draft is days away, and the rumor mill is red hot in anticipation. More trades are fully expected before the St. Louis Rams go on the clock, but this -- tentatively -- is our final mock draft before the real thing. Leading up to Thursday evening, we'll make changes here if necessary.
The draft will be covered extensively on the Rotoworld news page beginning Thursday afternoon, with Chris Wesseling and myself doing most of the updates throughout the three-day affair. For further analysis and opinions, follow me at @evansilva and Wess at @ChrisWesseling on Twitter.
Also be sure to check Profootballtalk.com for Mike Florio, Gregg Rosenthal, and Michael David Smith's valuable insight.
1. St. Louis Rams - Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford
With no pre-draft contract in place, speculation is inevitable that the Rams will trade out of the No. 1 spot while on the clock, or even move Bradford elsewhere after selecting him. The most likely scenario remains G.M. Billy Devaney hanging tightly to Bradford as St. Louis' franchise savior.
2. Detroit Lions - Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh
The latest buzz has Detroit leaning toward Russell Okung if GM Martin Mayhew executes a move for Albert Haynesworth. We're not bold enough to predict draft-day trades (and Mayhew may well balk if Washington demands the No. 66 pick), so we'll give the Lions the best available player.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy
The most crucial position in the Buccaneers' Tampa-2 defense is three-technique defensive tackle, and McCoy is perhaps the best "three-tech" prospect to emerge from the college ranks since Tommie Harris in 2004. Incumbent Ryan Sims was dreadful in the role last season.
4. Washington Commanders - Oklahoma OT Trent Williams
Okung's track record, strength, and length are more impressive, but superior athleticism makes Williams the better fit for Washington's zone-blocking scheme. With no one on the current roster capable of protecting Donovan McNabb's blind side, left tackle is the Skins' biggest need.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Oklahoma State OT Russell Okung
Oklahoma State led the Big 12 in rushing in each of Okung's four years as a starter, and he let up just one sack as a senior. Only five NFL teams surrendered more sacks than the Chiefs last year. If that keeps up, new offensive coordinator Charlie Weis' pass-first attack will be destined to fail.
6. Seattle Seahawks - Clemson RB C.J. Spiller
In his mocks for NFL.com, longtime Pete Carroll confidant and Jets co-worker Pat Kirwan has consistently predicted that Carroll will draft Spiller. The Seahawks arguably have bigger needs at left tackle, defensive end, and in the secondary, but Spiller's play-making ability is too enticing.
7. Cleveland Browns - Tennessee S Eric Berry
Those covering the team are convinced that the Browns will use their first-round pick on a defensive back, and Berry is the premier, can't-miss prospect at the position. Club president Mike Holmgren will likely wait until the second round (Colt McCoy) to draft his quarterback of the future.
8. Oakland Raiders - Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen
This match may make too much sense for such an illogically-run organization, but Clausen would present an immediate upgrade as Oakland's opening-day starter. JaMarcus Russell weighs 290 pounds, Bruce Gradkowski has a torn pectorals muscle, and Kyle Boller is a UFL-caliber passer.
9. Buffalo Bills - Iowa LT Bryan Bulaga
After years of first-round reaching, Buffalo settles for an NFL-ready player from a pro-style system at a position of glaring need. Bulaga's detractors say he lacks the arm length to succeed at left tackle long term, but he'd still be a day-one starter on the right side in a worst-case scenario.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars - Alabama LB Rolando McClain
Jacksonville has moved Justin Durant to the weak side and will keep Daryl Smith at strong-side linebacker, creating a hole in the middle. A "low-floor" prospect, McClain would give the Jags a formidable nucleus on the interior behind highly promising nose tackle Terrance Knighton.
11. Denver Broncos - Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant
Having just traded away Brandon Marshall, the Broncos are dangerously short on offensive play-makers. Coach Josh McDaniels vehemently defended Bryant's character in a press conference last Friday, and isn't going to enter the season with Jabar Gaffney as his No. 1 wide receiver.
12. Miami Dolphins - Tennessee DT Dan Williams
What good would the signing of inside linebacker Karlos Dansby be if the Dolphins can't keep blockers off their five-year, $43 million investment? A squatty and powerful nose tackle with Wilforkian size, Williams would tag team with Paul Soliai to eat up space on the inside.
13. San Francisco 49ers - Florida CB Joe Haden
Haden confirmed that he's plenty fast by running a 4.4 forty at the Gators' Pro Day, though it may still not be enough to vault him into the top 12 of a talent-rich draft. In San Francisco, Haden would make Nate Clements expendable, or allow the overpaid cornerback to slide to safety.
14. Seattle Seahawks - USC OT Charles Brown
This may be considered a reach, but Pete Carroll's familiarity with Brown and the prospect's ideal athleticism make it a sensible landing spot as Seattle installs Alex Gibbs' zone-blocking scheme. Ray Willis, who struggles in space, lined up at left tackle during the team's pre-draft minicamp.
15. New York Giants - Idaho OG Mike Iupati
Drafting Iupati would improve three positions on the Giants' offensive line, with promising William Beatty entering the lineup at left tackle, David Diehl kicking to the right side, and incumbent left guard Rich Seubert heading to the bench. Seubert was a run-blocking liability in 2009.
16. Tennessee Titans - Georgia Tech DE Derrick Morgan
A clean prospect with no concerns in terms of character, motor, or durability, Morgan projects as an immediate 8-10 sack threat and every-down player. The Titans can address their cornerback need later in a deep draft at the position. 60-snap, 4-3 defensive ends are harder to come by.
17. San Francisco 49ers - Rutgers OT Anthony Davis
Davis deserves to go earlier based on talent alone, but his history of weight fluctuation and enigmatic offseason will likely push him down the board. Acting Niners GM Trent Baalke should do cartwheels if he emerges from round one with Haden and the Scarlet Knights' offensive tackle.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers - Boise State CB Kyle Wilson
The Steelers' biggest need is at cornerback considering the failed William Gay experiment and Ike Taylor's continued maddening inconsistency. Speedy with ball skills, Wilson is versed in press-man and zone coverage, and coordinator Dick LeBeau employs both schemes.
19. Atlanta Falcons - South Florida DE Jason Pierre-Paul
A boom or bust prospect with just one year of D-I football on his resume, Pierre-Paul entered draft season with a top-ten projection, but may be available later than expected. He's failed to interview well, and is short on polish and production. JPP's upside should still keep him in the top 20.
20. Houston Texans - Fresno State RB Ryan Mathews
Dallas Morning News columnist Rick Gosselin, annually among the most accurate draft prognosticators, has projected Mathews inside the top 14 in each of his first two mocks. We don't think Mathews will go so high, but also doubt the Texans would pass on the draft's top big back.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Texas S Earl Thomas
This pick may come down to Thomas and Taylor Mays. Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer loves a thumper in the back end, but Thomas has a big edge in terms of ball skills and range. The Bengals played musical chairs at the safety positions for much of last season.
22. New England Patriots - Georgia Tech WR Demaryius Thomas
Along with linebacker and five-technique end, wideout ranks high on New England's needs list as Randy Moss enters a contract year and Wes Welker recovers from a torn ACL. Thomas would fill a hole at split end in year one, and potentially replace Moss as the Pats' long-term deep threat.
23. Green Bay Packers - Texas DE Sergio Kindle
Kindle's production was down in 2009 and he didn't exhibit ideal initial burst at the Combine, but he is NFL ready as a cover linebacker and blitzer off the edge. The latter qualities encompass exactly what Green Bay needs in a left outside linebacker to complement ROLB Clay Matthews.
24. Philadelphia Eagles - Alabama CB Kareem Jackson
A late riser because he was overshadowed by All-American Javier Arenas and many didn't expect Jackson to declare early for the draft, the Nick Saban disciple is now a consensus first-round prospect. And unlike current Eagles top corner Asante Samuel, Jackson can tackle.
25. Baltimore Ravens - Penn State DE Jared Odrick
Though Odrick lacks double-digit sack upside, he is ideally built to play end in a 3-4, a position at which the Ravens have weakened. Justin Bannan and Dwan Edwards are gone, 35-year-old Trevor Pryce is entering a contract season, and Cory Redding is an injury-prone underachiever.
26. Arizona Cardinals - Missouri LB Sean Weatherspoon
The draft's No. 2 non-rush linebacker, Weatherspoon is a tackle machine with leadership potential and a pro-ready skill set. Arizona is treading on thin ice at inside linebacker, having lost Karlos Dansby and penciled in 32-year-old journeyman Paris Lenon as the starter next to Gerald Hayes.
27. Dallas Cowboys - South Florida S Nate Allen
Better all-around talents are available at this point in the draft, but Dallas may have to reach a bit to fill a void after cutting Ken Hamlin. Allen isn't a big-time hitter, but is intelligent, instinctive, and possesses the necessary "centerfielder" qualities coveted by teams in search of true free safeties.
28. San Diego Chargers - Alabama DT Terrence Cody
A ready-made NFL nose tackle coming from Nick Saban's pro-style scheme, 350-pound wide bodies like Cody are too rare for 3-4 teams to let fall too far. Running back may be a slightly bigger need for San Diego, but Spiller and Mathews are this year's only top-30 talents at the position.
29. New York Jets - TCU DE Jerry Hughes
League sources tell the NY Daily News that the Jets intend to address their defensive front seven with the 29th overall pick. Though he lacks ideal height at just under 6-foot-2, Hughes was insanely productive in college and would help the Jets' fan base forget about Vernon Gholston.
30. Minnesota Vikings - Florida C Maurkice Pouncey
The Vikings' run blocking fell apart last season, as 32-year-old Steve Hutchinson began to show his age and center John Sullivan proved a replacement-level talent. Pouncey would be a major upgrade over Sullivan in year one, and eventually succeed Hutchinson as Minnesota's long-term left guard.
31. Indianapolis Colts - Michigan DE Brandon Graham
Graham is an extremely popular player among fans because of his relentless style of play and elite production, but NFL evaluators consider him a risk due to a stocky build and short arms. Relative to most teams, the Colts are less concerned with length when it comes to edge rushers.
32. New Orleans Saints - Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham
Coming off a serious knee injury and lacking NFL-ready blocking ability, Gresham falls short of the profile for a solid first-round pick. The Saints, though, are always open to adding offensive play-makers. Starter Jeremy Shockey is injury prone, and David Thomas is in a contract year.
Just Missed: UMass OT Vladimir Ducasse, USC S Taylor Mays, Maryland OT Bruce Campbell, USC DE Everson Griffen, Florida DE Carlos Dunlap, Florida State CB Patrick Robinson, UCLA DT Brian Price, Rutgers CB Devin McCourty, Notre Dame WR Golden Tate, Virginia CB Chris Cook, Northwestern DE Corey Wootton, Cal RB Jahvid Best, TCU LB Daryl Washington, Illinois WR Arrelious Benn, Iowa CB Amari Spievey, USC WR Damian Williams, Georgia Tech RB Jonathan Dwyer, Clemson DE Ricky Sapp, Arizona TE Rob Gronkowski, LSU S Chad Jones, Cincinnati WR Mardy Gilyard, Florida TE Aaron Hernandez, Texas QB Colt McCoy
