Skins -3.5

[TXCowboyVol]

Vegas opened line at 5, and it immediately went dow to 3.5. It'll continue to drop in our favor as the week goes on. I suspect by game time it'll be Foreskins -1 or a pick 'em.

 

[Risen Star]

I thought it would open at Commanders -4. So a slightly more pro Commanders line than I expected.

 

[perrykemp]

Vegas opened line at 5, and it immediately went dow to 3.5. It'll continue to drop in our favor as the week goes on. I suspect by game time it'll be Foreskins -1 or a pick 'em.

Why will it continue to drop?

 

[pugilist]

Why will it continue to drop?

more and more people putting money on Dallas

 

[Section446]

Line seems pretty fair.

 

[Risen Star]

I think it will level off at Commanders -3. I doubt that much money would go on the Cowboys to make it a pickem.

 

[NOVA Cowboy]

Unless you gamble, who really cares about the spread. I am a fan, I don't care if we are 100 pt underdogs or 100 pt favorites.

 

[ufcrules1]

Unless you gamble, who really cares about the spread. I am a fan, I don't care if we are 100 pt underdogs or 100 pt favorites.

Because the odds makers have a tendency to be pretty accurate at predicting the outcomes of games. Doesn't mean they will be right, but its intriguing to see what they think.

 

[Tabascocat]

My guess it ends at Wash -2 to -2.5. I doubt it settles at -3

 

[Risen Star]

Unless you gamble, who really cares about the spread. I am a fan, I don't care if we are 100 pt underdogs or 100 pt favorites.

Because the smartest sports prognosticators set the betting lines.

 

[SkinsFan82]

I'm not a gambler but I always thought they don't set the lines to predict the outcome of the game but encourage equal betting on both sides. When money comes in heavy on one side they move the line to adjust for that betting.

The point being you shouldn't look at a line as an attempt to predict the outcome but to maximize the profit for the sportsbooks.

 

[Risen Star]

My guess it ends at Wash -2 to -2.5. I doubt it settles at -3

I'd be surprised. That would mean the Cowboys are the slight favorite on a neutral field and I doubt many people feel that way right now with the Commanders having won 6 in a row, including a win in Dallas on T-day.

By all rights it should be a 4 or 5 point line. I only said 3 because the Cowboys tend to get over bet.

 

[pugilist]

-3.5 is the default "homefield" advantage that every game gets and then they set lines from there. If it ends at -3.5 it's basically a pick 'em

 

[Tabascocat]

I'd be surprised. That would mean the Cowboys are the slight favorite on a neutral field and I doubt many people feel that way right now with the Commanders having won 6 in a row, including a win in Dallas on T-day.

By all rights it should be a 4 or 5 point line. I only said 3 because the Cowboys tend to get over bet.

That is pretty much why I think it settles less than 3. There are of a lot of dumb betters that will bet the Cowboys no matter what. Coupled with the fact the Skins are due for a loss, that will sway some also.

 

[Risen Star]

-3.5 is the default "homefield" advantage that every game gets and then they set lines from there. If it ends at -3.5 it's basically a pick 'em

You get 3 points for homefield, not 3.5

 

[Fritsch_the_cat]

One of my main rules for life is that I only bet on horses, so I couldn't care less what the spread is.

 

[Nirvana]

It won't move too much from -3.5 now, I think.