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http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/11561331
Why did wide receiver Marques Colston last until the seventh round -- going to the Saints at pick No. 252, the fourth-to-last selection -- in the 2006 NFL Draft?
Marques Colston had 1,000 receiving yards in his first two NFL seasons. (US Presswire) Colston was pretty clearly a fourth- or fifth-round value based on his size, speed and playmaking ability. His pro success is documented; only injuries prevented him from putting up a third straight 1,000-yard season in 2008.
Why was Coltson still there for the Saints? To paraphrase one scout: "Our folks did not want to draft a receiver from Hofstra."
That antiquated viewpoint, given the success of many prospects from outside major conferences or even the Football Bowl Subdivision, has hindered many franchises.
FBS schools playing outside of the Bowl Championship Series or in the Football Championship Subdivision, D II, D III or NAIA undoubtedly face lesser competition on Saturdays, as well as on their own practice field. But as another scout once told me, "If a guy can play, he can play ... even if you don't recognize his helmet."
So which school of thought is correct? Are players from outside the FBS able to handle the transition to the NFL? Do prospects produced by FCS programs or non-BCS schools fare better in the NFL than many with a BCS background?
Separate but equal
History tells us that players from so-called "small schools" more than stack up with those from programs within the power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, SEC). When looking at prospects of similar value, few differences exist -- at least in tangible numbers such as average games played, started or even Pro Bowl appearances -- between prospects from the three levels of schools.
The data below underlines this point. An asterisk denotes where either non-BCS FBS or non-FBS schools beat BCS prospects in a particular statistical grouping.
Data comes from 1994-2008 draft picks by college category (BCS, Non-BCS FBS, Non-FBS):
Picks 1-20 (Early-mid first round):
Games played (86.9, 92.8*, 94.5*)
Games started (72.4, 82.3*, 76.7*)
Career Pro Bowls (1.14, 1.32*, 1.00)
Randy Moss was a star at Marshall before becoming a record-setting receiver as a pro. (US Presswire) Picks 21-50 (Late first to mid-second):
Games played (73.5, 72.2, 79.2*)
Games started (51.7, 54.4*, 54.3*)
Career Pro Bowls (0.43, 0.37, 0.59*)
Picks 51-80 (Mid-second to mid-third):
Games played (63.1, 59.0, 60.9)
Games started (35.8, 36.1*, 35.3)
Career Pro Bowls (0.22, 0.24*, 0.33*)
Picks 81-120 (Mid-third to mid-fourth):
Games played (48.9, 48.4, 60.5*)
Games started (22.9, 18.1, 31.5*)
Career Pro Bowls (0.05, 0.10*, 0.22*)
Picks 121-160 (Mid-fourth to late fifth):
Games played (38.8, 43.4*, 40.3*)
Games started (16.1, 15.7, 16.4*)
Career Pro Bowls (0.07, 0.04, 0.12*)
Picks 160+ (Late fifth through seventh):
Games played (26.7, 28.4, 24.3)
Games started (8.8, 10.9, 8.2)
Career Pro Bowls (0.04, 0.04, 0.09*)
There were 36 spots where asterisks denote small-school players' statistical production being greater than those of BCS prospects; 21 times (58.3 percent) the non-BCS FBS or non-FBS data were highlighted. And in several instances where this is not the case, the difference between higher BCS prospects figures and those of lower-level prospects was too small to be considered significant.
When analyzing players of similar value in previous articles, picks were compared by the round in which they were selected. But the length of rounds are based on the number of teams in the league and any free-agent compensatory selections, neither of which have anything to do with a player's actual value.
In other words, not all first-round picks are created equal.
Through previous studies, findings show that those selected at the top of the first round tend to perform, on average, much better than those picked at the bottom of the first round. This is generally true for the second, third, fourth and fifth rounds, as well. After the late fifth, the average success (or lack thereof) is pretty similar throughout the rest of the draft. The downward trending statistics as pick numbers increase uphold this theory.
Note that 71 percent of players drafted from 1994-2008 come from BCS schools, versus 17 percent from non-BCS FBS schools and 12 percent from non-FBS schools. Only six of the 300 top 20 picks since 1994 came from non-FBS schools. These discrepancies require caution when making grand statements about one set of prospects being better than another.
The differential also shows how much more talent there is, on the whole, in power conferences. However, it is safe to say that there is no evidence that small-school prospects of similar value to prospects from major programs have significantly less NFL success.
Just a little patience
Two-time Super Bowl champion Ben Roethlisberger led Miami's RedHawks to a 13-1 record in 2003. (US Presswire) Another potential concern about players from smaller schools is that they need an extra year of seasoning before they are ready to contribute at the NFL level. The argument goes that the lesser competition these players face most weeks does not prepare them for the rigors and speed of the professional ranks.
Examining the same 1994-2008 draftees, there is a bit of evidence that players from non-FBS programs do take a bit longer to be productive than those from the FBS. Only non-FBS players selected in the 51-80 tier started more games than BCS prospects with the same value during their first year (3.33 vs. 3.21). In all other cases, BCS prospects won out.
Interestingly, prospects from FBS programs outside of the BCS met or exceeded the "average rookie starts" and Pro Bowl appearances of players from BCS schools in almost every selection tier listed above. So that leap from the MAC or WAC to the NFL should not be considered a steeper incline than the one other prospects are making.
As expected, the differences in playing time for these three prospect types lessen in Years 2 and 3. Top 80 prospects from BCS schools start 5 percent more games than non-FBS players as rookies and 7 percent more in Year 2, but the top small-school prospects start 2 percent more games in Year 3.
The differences in initial participation are minimal, so even though it might take a little bit longer for small-school prospects to flourish, teams shouldn't shy away from them. Once a player has proven himself (or not) at the next level, it appears the school they attended becomes a moot point.
Non-BCS prospects to watch in '09
Non-BCS prospects are not expected to crack the top half of the draft, unlike last spring where offensive tackle Ryan Clady (Boise State, 12th overall to Denver) and cornerbacks Leodis McKelvin (Troy, No. 11 to Buffalo) and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Tennessee State, 16th to Arizona) were all top selections.
Southern Miss tight end Shawn Nelson could be chosen in the first 50 picks of the '09 draft. (US Presswire) Of course, that doesn't mean there are no potential impact players from outside the power conferences. Potential top 50 picks S Louis Delmas (Western Michigan), DE-OLB Larry English (Northern Illinois), DT-DE Jarron Gilbert (San Jose State), TE Shawn Nelson (Southern Miss) and CB Sean Smith (Utah) will represent the MAC, WAC, Mountain West and Conference USA. Rising DE-OLB prospect Lawrence Sidbury Jr. (Richmond) is a likely non-FBS player sneaking into the top half of the second round.
Rounds 2 and 3 typically include about a dozen non-BCS prospects. The following players are expected to fall into that category: WR Ramses Barden (Cal Poly), QB Rhett Bomar (Sam Houston State), TE James Casey (Rice), CB Coye Francies (San Jose State), RB Rashad Jennings (Liberty), OT Troy Kropog (Tulane), DE-OLB Paul Kruger (Utah), CB Sherrod Martin (Troy), LB Gerald McRath (Southern Miss), DE David Veikune (Hawaii) and LB Jason Williams (Western Illinois).
Lesser-known prospects like WR Dominique Edison (Stephen F. Austin), OG/C T.J. Lang (Eastern Michigan), CB Christopher Owens (San Jose State), OLB Lee Robinson (Alcorn State) and OT Sebastian Vollmer (Houston) will litter the middle rounds, but fans will know their names soon enough as they compete for playing time as rookies. Non-FBS stars WR Johnny Knox (Abilene Christian) and CB/FS Lardarius Webb (Nicholls State) will also be picked in Rounds 4 and 5, if not before, after burning up the scouting combine track last month.
The late rounds are where most non-BCS picks are selected. Most do not turn out to be longtime NFL players, but occasionally there will be a success story like C Matt Birk (Harvard, 1998, sixth round), Colston, WR Donald Driver (Alcorn State, 1999, seventh round), DT La'Roi Glover (San Diego State, 1996, fifth round), CB Al Harris (Texas A&M-Kingsville, 1997, sixth round), DT Grady Jackson (Knoxville, 1997, sixth round) or LB Adalius Thomas (Southern Miss, 2000, sixth round).
One of these prospects could be the next late-Sunday bargain: OG Roger Allen (Missouri Western), QB Nathan Brown (Central Arkansas), CB Joe Burnett (Central Florida), CB Don Carey (Norfolk State), CB Domonique Johnson (Jackson State), OT/OG Cornelius Lewis (Tennessee State), DT/DE Clinton McDonald (Memphis), RB/WR Devin Moore (Wyoming), C Cecil Newton (Tennessee State), DE/DT Everette Pedescleaux (Northern Iowa), DE Pierre Walters (Eastern Illinois).
Chad Reuter is a Senior Analyst for NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange.
Why did wide receiver Marques Colston last until the seventh round -- going to the Saints at pick No. 252, the fourth-to-last selection -- in the 2006 NFL Draft?
Why was Coltson still there for the Saints? To paraphrase one scout: "Our folks did not want to draft a receiver from Hofstra."
That antiquated viewpoint, given the success of many prospects from outside major conferences or even the Football Bowl Subdivision, has hindered many franchises.
FBS schools playing outside of the Bowl Championship Series or in the Football Championship Subdivision, D II, D III or NAIA undoubtedly face lesser competition on Saturdays, as well as on their own practice field. But as another scout once told me, "If a guy can play, he can play ... even if you don't recognize his helmet."
So which school of thought is correct? Are players from outside the FBS able to handle the transition to the NFL? Do prospects produced by FCS programs or non-BCS schools fare better in the NFL than many with a BCS background?
Separate but equal
History tells us that players from so-called "small schools" more than stack up with those from programs within the power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, SEC). When looking at prospects of similar value, few differences exist -- at least in tangible numbers such as average games played, started or even Pro Bowl appearances -- between prospects from the three levels of schools.
The data below underlines this point. An asterisk denotes where either non-BCS FBS or non-FBS schools beat BCS prospects in a particular statistical grouping.
Data comes from 1994-2008 draft picks by college category (BCS, Non-BCS FBS, Non-FBS):
Picks 1-20 (Early-mid first round):
Games played (86.9, 92.8*, 94.5*)
Games started (72.4, 82.3*, 76.7*)
Career Pro Bowls (1.14, 1.32*, 1.00)
Games played (73.5, 72.2, 79.2*)
Games started (51.7, 54.4*, 54.3*)
Career Pro Bowls (0.43, 0.37, 0.59*)
Picks 51-80 (Mid-second to mid-third):
Games played (63.1, 59.0, 60.9)
Games started (35.8, 36.1*, 35.3)
Career Pro Bowls (0.22, 0.24*, 0.33*)
Picks 81-120 (Mid-third to mid-fourth):
Games played (48.9, 48.4, 60.5*)
Games started (22.9, 18.1, 31.5*)
Career Pro Bowls (0.05, 0.10*, 0.22*)
Picks 121-160 (Mid-fourth to late fifth):
Games played (38.8, 43.4*, 40.3*)
Games started (16.1, 15.7, 16.4*)
Career Pro Bowls (0.07, 0.04, 0.12*)
Picks 160+ (Late fifth through seventh):
Games played (26.7, 28.4, 24.3)
Games started (8.8, 10.9, 8.2)
Career Pro Bowls (0.04, 0.04, 0.09*)
There were 36 spots where asterisks denote small-school players' statistical production being greater than those of BCS prospects; 21 times (58.3 percent) the non-BCS FBS or non-FBS data were highlighted. And in several instances where this is not the case, the difference between higher BCS prospects figures and those of lower-level prospects was too small to be considered significant.
When analyzing players of similar value in previous articles, picks were compared by the round in which they were selected. But the length of rounds are based on the number of teams in the league and any free-agent compensatory selections, neither of which have anything to do with a player's actual value.
In other words, not all first-round picks are created equal.
Through previous studies, findings show that those selected at the top of the first round tend to perform, on average, much better than those picked at the bottom of the first round. This is generally true for the second, third, fourth and fifth rounds, as well. After the late fifth, the average success (or lack thereof) is pretty similar throughout the rest of the draft. The downward trending statistics as pick numbers increase uphold this theory.
Note that 71 percent of players drafted from 1994-2008 come from BCS schools, versus 17 percent from non-BCS FBS schools and 12 percent from non-FBS schools. Only six of the 300 top 20 picks since 1994 came from non-FBS schools. These discrepancies require caution when making grand statements about one set of prospects being better than another.
The differential also shows how much more talent there is, on the whole, in power conferences. However, it is safe to say that there is no evidence that small-school prospects of similar value to prospects from major programs have significantly less NFL success.
Just a little patience
Examining the same 1994-2008 draftees, there is a bit of evidence that players from non-FBS programs do take a bit longer to be productive than those from the FBS. Only non-FBS players selected in the 51-80 tier started more games than BCS prospects with the same value during their first year (3.33 vs. 3.21). In all other cases, BCS prospects won out.
Interestingly, prospects from FBS programs outside of the BCS met or exceeded the "average rookie starts" and Pro Bowl appearances of players from BCS schools in almost every selection tier listed above. So that leap from the MAC or WAC to the NFL should not be considered a steeper incline than the one other prospects are making.
As expected, the differences in playing time for these three prospect types lessen in Years 2 and 3. Top 80 prospects from BCS schools start 5 percent more games than non-FBS players as rookies and 7 percent more in Year 2, but the top small-school prospects start 2 percent more games in Year 3.
The differences in initial participation are minimal, so even though it might take a little bit longer for small-school prospects to flourish, teams shouldn't shy away from them. Once a player has proven himself (or not) at the next level, it appears the school they attended becomes a moot point.
Non-BCS prospects to watch in '09
Non-BCS prospects are not expected to crack the top half of the draft, unlike last spring where offensive tackle Ryan Clady (Boise State, 12th overall to Denver) and cornerbacks Leodis McKelvin (Troy, No. 11 to Buffalo) and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Tennessee State, 16th to Arizona) were all top selections.
Rounds 2 and 3 typically include about a dozen non-BCS prospects. The following players are expected to fall into that category: WR Ramses Barden (Cal Poly), QB Rhett Bomar (Sam Houston State), TE James Casey (Rice), CB Coye Francies (San Jose State), RB Rashad Jennings (Liberty), OT Troy Kropog (Tulane), DE-OLB Paul Kruger (Utah), CB Sherrod Martin (Troy), LB Gerald McRath (Southern Miss), DE David Veikune (Hawaii) and LB Jason Williams (Western Illinois).
Lesser-known prospects like WR Dominique Edison (Stephen F. Austin), OG/C T.J. Lang (Eastern Michigan), CB Christopher Owens (San Jose State), OLB Lee Robinson (Alcorn State) and OT Sebastian Vollmer (Houston) will litter the middle rounds, but fans will know their names soon enough as they compete for playing time as rookies. Non-FBS stars WR Johnny Knox (Abilene Christian) and CB/FS Lardarius Webb (Nicholls State) will also be picked in Rounds 4 and 5, if not before, after burning up the scouting combine track last month.
The late rounds are where most non-BCS picks are selected. Most do not turn out to be longtime NFL players, but occasionally there will be a success story like C Matt Birk (Harvard, 1998, sixth round), Colston, WR Donald Driver (Alcorn State, 1999, seventh round), DT La'Roi Glover (San Diego State, 1996, fifth round), CB Al Harris (Texas A&M-Kingsville, 1997, sixth round), DT Grady Jackson (Knoxville, 1997, sixth round) or LB Adalius Thomas (Southern Miss, 2000, sixth round).
One of these prospects could be the next late-Sunday bargain: OG Roger Allen (Missouri Western), QB Nathan Brown (Central Arkansas), CB Joe Burnett (Central Florida), CB Don Carey (Norfolk State), CB Domonique Johnson (Jackson State), OT/OG Cornelius Lewis (Tennessee State), DT/DE Clinton McDonald (Memphis), RB/WR Devin Moore (Wyoming), C Cecil Newton (Tennessee State), DE/DT Everette Pedescleaux (Northern Iowa), DE Pierre Walters (Eastern Illinois).
Chad Reuter is a Senior Analyst for NFLDraftScout.com, distributed by The Sports Xchange.