So the new 2007 DVOA projections were released today ('boys ranked 26th)

[thekavorka]

I think you mean indicator (same season as the stats used), not predictor (the next season).


According to one blogger's research, DVOA is no better at predicting each team's wins in the following season than are the Las Vegas over/unders -- and are even worse than simply expecting every team to win the same number of games as the previous season, as well as worse than simply expecting each team to go 8-8.

I mean predictor.

According to http://footballoutsiders.com/faq.php, table 2, DVOA has a higher correlation coefficient in predicting next year's wins than either the previous year's wins, points scored/allowed, or yards gained/yards allowed. Granted, it's not by much, but the difference in the correlation coefficients is probably significant (i can't say for sure since i don't know how many events they used).

Vegas bookies may very well be better than Football Outsiders, but if you're judging solely by the previous season's wins, yards gained/allowed, or points scored/allowed, DVOA is a better predictor. Vegas bookies of course have their own method and don't simply use the above mentioned stats.