Some Math to Play with for the Next Game

rwalters31

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Looking at the NFL Team Stats you see what the Cowboys are up against:
Cowboys are:
23th in points/game on Offense
3th in fewest points/game allowed on Defense

Saints are:
1st in points/game on Offense
15th in fewest points/game allowed on Defense

Average points/game on Offense and Defense:
Cowboys = (23+3)/2 = 13
Saints = (1+15)/2 = 8

The lower the number the greater the power ranking to win.
Isn't math fun?
 
Last edited:
Saints offense : 37.2 ppg
Saints defense : 23.3ppg
Difference : +13.9ppg

Cowboys offense : 21.3ppg
Cowboys defense : 19.4ppg
Difference : +1.9ppg

I think this is a bigger tell.

If you only look at common opponents, the gap is even wider.
 
Stats are fun, and they can be used as an indicator but quite honestly they never tell the whole story. If you look solely at stats the Saints should beat us handily.

The Cowboys need this game worse than the Saints do. In that sort of situation, generally you see a better game (relative to talent level) from the team that needs to win the game more.

I think the Cowboys will bring their A game. In fact I think we have a really good chance to win this game. If we win this game it's the "letdown" the against the Eagles the following week that has me concerned.
 
Saints Offensive DVOA: 3rd
Cowbiys Offensive DVOA: 24th

Saints Defensive DVOA: 24th
Cowboys Defensive DVOA: 21st

Who ya got?
 
I would be happier about this matchup if our DL was healthy. The real question is who has the better matchup? In years past our defensive ranking has been helped by a huge TOP advantage, but that is not true this year. Our defense is allowing very few points despite a mediocre at best offense.

The Saints will get their points but unless we have a defensive meltdown they shouldn't put 40 up against us. The real question will which Dak shows up? If we get good Dak then we can put up 30 points and if we get bad Dak we will be lucky to break 17. So to me Dak is the biggest question mark between a game that comes down to the end and the Saints winning by 3 scores.
 
Looking at the NFL Team Stats you see what the Cowboys are up against:
Cowboys are:
23th in points/game on Offense
3th in fewest points/game allowed on Defense

Saints are:
1st in points/game on Offense
15th in fewest points/game allowed on Defense

Average points/game on Offense and Defense:
Cowboys = (23+3)/2 = 13
Saints = (1+15)/2 = 8

The lower the number the greater the power ranking to win.
Isn't math fun?

I hate math.

In short......all I want is a cowboys win.
 
Saints offense : 37.2 ppg
Saints defense : 23.3ppg
Difference : +13.9ppg

Cowboys offense : 21.3ppg
Cowboys defense : 19.4ppg
Difference : +1.9ppg

I think this is a bigger tell.

The Saints offense vs. Dallas defense averages 28.2
The Dallas offense vs. Saints defense averages 22.0

This says the Saints are on average 6.2 points better. But since this game is a Saints road game, what are the averages for Saints on the road and Cowboys at home? That's probably more telling.

Averages are just that - some data points higher and some lower. Regardless of what the stats and averages say, Dallas can win this game. We won't be favored and shouldn't be, but if we execute on both offense and defense, and don't turn the ball over, we have a reasonable chance.
 
The last 3 games, the Saints have the No. 1 defense in the NFL.
 
I'd be happier if this game was Sunday at noon Dallas time. Being a night game, the Saints will be looking to show the national TV audience just how good they are. It doesn't always work out that way though.

Looking at the Saints prior games, they have played 5 road games and won all with two blowouts against the Giants and Bengals. The Cowboys are better than both of those teams by a lot, especially on defense. The other 3 road games, they won by a total of 17 points. That's still pretty good. They beat the Falcons, Vikings and Ravens. The Ravens lost by 1 point. I think the Saints are not as good on the road as at home but they are still really good. Hopefully the Cowboys fans can make a lot of noise to disrupt the Saints signals a bit and slow the pass rush down.

My head tells me the Cowboys offense is not good enough to play with the Saints offense. The Saints are going to score 30 points or more because that's what they do every week. The Cowboys have scored more than 30 points only 2 times all year. Dak is going to have to use his feet to get first downs and keep the ball away from the Saints. The more success the Cowboys have running the football and eating up the clock the closer this game will be. If they keep it close, maybe they can eke out a win.

One word on the refs. The Cowboys caught a few breaks last week with the refs. That was unusual. The refs usually stiff the Cowboys big time. But my theory is the refs subconsciously favor certain teams, like the Saints. The Cowboys will have to play a really clean game Thursday because they will get called for every holding, block in the back, hands to the face and pass interference no matter how ticky-tack. We may even see one of those weird penalties they only call once every 100 years.
 
The only numbers that really matter is final score
On paper the saints should be undefeated
But they lost to the bucs
Matchups are always important
Sometimes a lesser team is a tougher matchup
If we can run the ball and convert 3rd downs while turning those drives into 7, we have a good chance
 
Looking at the NFL Team Stats you see what the Cowboys are up against:
Cowboys are:
23th in points/game on Offense
3th in fewest points/game allowed on Defense

Saints are:
1st in points/game on Offense
15th in fewest points/game allowed on Defense

Average points/game on Offense and Defense:
Cowboys = (23+3)/2 = 13
Saints = (1+15)/2 = 8

The lower the number the greater the power ranking to win.
Isn't math fun?

I wrote a program years ago, late 80's, early 90's on my computer at the time. When Basic and Fortran were popular. Did this same thing.
Plug in the points and yards averages, come up with a prediction.

I now have that in a spreadsheet somewhere. But never use it.
Maybe I need to find it.

Did the same thing with the QBR formula.
 
The last 3 games, the Saints have the No. 1 defense in the NFL.

That and $1 will get you a cup of coffee at McDonalds
That and $4 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks

$3 difference, Give me the underdog. Besides McD's coffee is much better too.
 
I'd be happier if this game was Sunday at noon Dallas time. Being a night game, the Saints will be looking to show the national TV audience just how good they are. It doesn't always work out that way though.

Looking at the Saints prior games, they have played 5 road games and won all with two blowouts against the Giants and Bengals. The Cowboys are better than both of those teams by a lot, especially on defense. The other 3 road games, they won by a total of 17 points. That's still pretty good. They beat the Falcons, Vikings and Ravens. The Ravens lost by 1 point. I think the Saints are not as good on the road as at home but they are still really good. Hopefully the Cowboys fans can make a lot of noise to disrupt the Saints signals a bit and slow the pass rush down.

My head tells me the Cowboys offense is not good enough to play with the Saints offense. The Saints are going to score 30 points or more because that's what they do every week. The Cowboys have scored more than 30 points only 2 times all year. Dak is going to have to use his feet to get first downs and keep the ball away from the Saints. The more success the Cowboys have running the football and eating up the clock the closer this game will be. If they keep it close, maybe they can eke out a win.

One word on the refs. The Cowboys caught a few breaks last week with the refs. That was unusual. The refs usually stiff the Cowboys big time. But my theory is the refs subconsciously favor certain teams, like the Saints. The Cowboys will have to play a really clean game Thursday because they will get called for every holding, block in the back, hands to the face and pass interference no matter how ticky-tack. We may even see one of those weird penalties they only call once every 100 years.

Zeke runs for over 120 in his 13 national televised games. Saints has not really faced a running attack or a more balanced offense. Not that our offense is great, but the have been playing better. But only the Rams you could say was the best offense, maybe the Falcons. Possibly the vikings, but all other teams sucked, or were injured.

Saints offense faced defenses, maybe the toughest the Ravens and the Redksins. Heck even throw in the Brown the way they can play, and Browns should have won that game. They almost lost to the Ravens as well.

Yes the have played better lately, but so has Dallas.
This will be the best D they faced yet. And as I mentioned, the best running game as well.

Should be interesting.
 
Zeke runs for over 120 in his 13 national televised games. Saints has not really faced a running attack or a more balanced offense. Not that our offense is great, but the have been playing better. But only the Rams you could say was the best offense, maybe the Falcons. Possibly the vikings, but all other teams sucked, or were injured.

Saints offense faced defenses, maybe the toughest the Ravens and the Redksins. Heck even throw in the Brown the way they can play, and Browns should have won that game. They almost lost to the Ravens as well.

Yes the have played better lately, but so has Dallas.
This will be the best D they faced yet. And as I mentioned, the best running game as well.

Should be interesting.

The Cowboys are one of the least balanced offenses in the league.
The Rams run game is better than Dallas'
The Saints have played the #1 and #3 defenses (The rest however have not been very good).

The Saints have played the following offensive ranks:
1
2
7
7
11
14
18
19
20
26
27

Compared to Dallas:
7
12
13
16
19
20
22
23
27
27
30
 

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