Something to debate

[LeonDixson]

The defense hasn't been getting it done in the situation where we are leading by a touchdown or less with 2 or 3 minutes on the clock and the opponents having the ball. That situation has been described as the opponent basically being in a 3rd and long situation every play and the Cowboys have been playing their nickle defense every time.

The Cowboys have only given up 3rd and long conversions at the rate of a little over 31% of the time so the team is surprised that they haven't been able to come up with stops to prevent the other team from winning or tying the game.

Here's my take on it. IF this situation is basically played like 3rd and long by the other offense why should we be surprised that they move the ball right down the field? We allow success in that situation almost 1/3 of three times and the other team gets 4 tries to make it. They are always going to go for it on 4th down because they either score or lose.

So if they get 4 tries to succeed when we are allowing success almost every 3rd time, why would we expect to stop them?

I'm sure there is some flaw in my logic because surely the team would be smart enough to figure this out, but I can't put my finger on it.

I'm interested in hearing everyone else's take on this, but please don't make it a "Wade thread". Debate the logic of my reasoning.

IMHO, and not being an X's and O's guy I think we have to bring more heat in that situation and not play our normal nickle defense.

 

[HoosierCowboy]

too many variables to be too neat with the stats but you have to keep separate stats for different game situations

 

[Aven8]

This is my theory on why we can't top the 2 minute at the end of close games.

We are worn out!

We have NO backups at either outside position in the LB core. Both Ware and Spencer are playing the entire game. For some reason we do not trust Octavien or Butler.

This depth on defense will be our undoing for the year IMO. We just don't have the depth. They were hoping for Brandon Williams and Butler to spell these guys...key word (hoping) but it hasn't panned out. Now we are paying for it and will continue to pay for it throughout the season.

I have noticed we also only rush 4 the majority of the time, in fear of getting beat deep. Grand logic Wade!

 

[LeonDixson]

too many variables to be too neat with the stats but you have to keep separate stats for different game situations

I should have gone with my initial impulse and left the stats out. In fact I'm going to edit the post and take them out.

The real question is wouldn't our players have to be extra lucky to stop a team than has four tries to do what we allow basically every three tries?

 

[LeonDixson]

This is my theory on why we can't top the 2 minute at the end of close games.

We are worn out!

We have NO backups at either outside position in the LB core. Both Ware and Spencer are playing the entire game. For some reason we do not trust Octavien or Butler.

This depth on defense will be our undoing for the year IMO. We just don't have the depth. They were hoping for Brandon Williams and Butler to spell these guys...key word (hoping) but it hasn't panned out. Now we are paying for it and will continue to pay for it throughout the season.

I have noticed we also only rush 4 the majority of the time, in fear of getting beat deep. Grand logic Wade!

The bold part is exactly my point. That is our normal nickle defense. Isn't it almost guaranteed to get us beat unless the other team makes a mistake or we get lucky?

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Your point seems to be valid according to my layman's understanding of the game, but I would like to offer a comment:

Given the type of your situation you're describing (the defense on the field with a 7 point lead or less and fewer than three minutes remaining), defensive stops are becoming progressively rarer league-wide -- at least based on my observations.

Perhaps it's due to rules being so favorable to offenses, or perhaps my observation is flawed.

 

[SLATEmosphere]

Ware and Spencer are completely gassed at the end of games because Wade is a moron and doesn't sub Octavien and Butler in to keep them fresh. It pisses me off. It's not that hard Wade!!!!

 

[RS12]

This is my theory on why we can't top the 2 minute at the end of close games.

We are worn out!

We have NO backups at either outside position in the LB core. Both Ware and Spencer are playing the entire game. For some reason we do not trust Octavien or Butler.

This depth on defense will be our undoing for the year IMO. We just don't have the depth. They were hoping for Brandon Williams and Butler to spell these guys...key word (hoping) but it hasn't panned out. Now we are paying for it and will continue to pay for it throughout the season.

I have noticed we also only rush 4 the majority of the time, in fear of getting beat deep. Grand logic Wade!

Denver didnt look worn out when they suffocated SD end of game last night. I love defenses that swarm, blitz, and press all the time. The soft coverages the Cowboys play are killing them. Of course the fact that they arent getting enough pressure isnt helping either.

 

[jobberone]

Great defenses make stops when they need to.

 

[LeonDixson]

Your point seems to be valid according to my layman's understanding of the game, but I would like to offer a comment:

Given the type of your situation you're describing (the defense on the field with a 7 point lead or less and fewer than three minutes remaining), defensive stops are becoming progressively rarer league-wide -- at least based on my observations.

Perhaps it's due to rules being so favorable to offenses, or perhaps my observation is flawed.

Very good point, ScipioCowboy. I believe it is due to most teams employing the same strategy that Dallas employs, ie going to the nickle or prevent defense. I think it's a losing strategy. Last night the Broncos continued to bring the heat at the end of the game. In fact, I think they actually brought it with more urgency.

Now, I know the were leading by 2 scores at the time, but the point is they brought the heat and shut down the Chargers.

 

[LeonDixson]

Denver didnt look worn out when they suffocated SD end of game last night. I love defenses that swarm, blitz, and press all the time. The soft coverages the Cowboys play are killing them. Of course the fact that they arent getting enough pressure isnt helping either.

Agreed. You can't rush just four and let the QB just sit back there and wait for someone to come open.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Very good point, ScipioCowboy. I believe it is due to most teams employing the same strategy that Dallas employs, ie going to the nickle or prevent defense. I think it's a losing strategy. Last night the Broncos continued to bring the heat at the end of the game. In fact, I think they actually brought it with more urgency.

Now, I know the were leading by 2 scores at the time, but the point is they brought the heat and shut down the Chargers.

I'm almost of the opinion that, when protecting a single score lead late in the game, defenses should play aggressively. This way, if the team surrenders a score, it does so quickly.

 

[LeonDixson]

I'm almost of the opinion that, when protecting a single score lead late in the game, defenses should play aggressively. This way, if the team surrenders a score, it does so quickly.

Leaving more time on the clock for Romo to work with. Plus, you are forcing the other team to make a good play instead of letting them make a bunch of average plays while you hope they make a mistake or two.

 

[jobberone]

Denver didnt look worn out when they suffocated SD end of game last night. I love defenses that swarm, blitz, and press all the time. The soft coverages the Cowboys play are killing them. Of course the fact that they arent getting enough pressure isnt helping either.

Yep. And we swarmed more last year when Wade let the dogs loose. But if you don't get to the QB in time then you pay for it. And we haven't been getting to the QB. Ware looks slower than usual and I think he's still injured.

 

[LeonDixson]

Yep. And we swarmed more last year when Wade let the dogs loose. But if you don't get to the QB in time then you pay for it. And we haven't been getting to the QB. Ware looks slower than usual and I think he's still injured.

I agree that Ware hasn't looked like his old self so far. Hopefully he will get healthy and back on track. As to paying for it if we don't get to the QB, well, we're paying for it anyway so why not bring the heat.