Spencer another high pick

[jr40usa]

Does anyone feel Spencer will play up to his new Franchise Tag Salary?
I really thought we had a gem of a player when this guy was drafted.
Now I'm not sure.

 

[baj1dallas]

every guy is a steal or a bust that's what people like.

 

[Eskimo]

Spencer is okay.

He is an average starter that we are grossly overpaying and overvaluing.

Our ongoing inability to properly manage the salary cap is a major hindrance to our success on the field.

I know some will laud Jerry for winning the SB eons ago but we are regularly schooled by other teams with better managers and scouts. There is no way the Eagles, Patriots or Giants would get stuck franchising an underachiever like Spencer.

 

[Paniolo22]

Spencer was a late first round pick. For his draft position, he's been fine.

 

[lane]

Spencer is okay.

He is an average starter that we are grossly overpaying and overvaluing.

Our ongoing inability to properly manage the salary cap is a major hindrance to our success on the field.

I know some will laud Jerry for winning the SB eons ago but we are regularly schooled by other teams with better managers and scouts. There is no way the Eagles, Patriots or Giants would get stuck franchising an underachiever like Spencer.

preach brother!!!

 

[D29Murray]

Spencer is okay.

He is an average starter that we are grossly overpaying and overvaluing.

Our ongoing inability to properly manage the salary cap is a major hindrance to our success on the field.

I know some will laud Jerry for winning the SB eons ago but we are regularly schooled by other teams with better managers and scouts. There is no way the Eagles, Patriots or Giants would get stuck franchising an underachiever like Spencer.

:laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2:

 

[Rogerthat12]

I think we let him walk after this year and probably draft his replacement if say Wilber can not handle the gig.

I am not sure if they think Bulter is the next in line but we have to see what he does this year.

 

[Eskimo]

:laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2: :laugh2:

Do you think he is a top 10 OLB in a 3-4 defense?

If he isn't, he is basically in the middle which is average.

Off the top of my head I'd put him behind:

Ware
Kerrigan
Orakpo
Clay Matthews
Aldon Smith
Ahmad Brooks
Lemarr Woodley
James Harrison
Von Miller
Shaun Phillips
Ahmad Brooks
Connor Barwin
Tamba Hali
Cameron Wake

So there are 14 OLBs from 3-4 defenses I'd take ahead of Spencer. I can't remember how many teams play 3-4 but it's probably no more than half the league. Let's argue there are 20 teams that means 40 starters. Well being #16 out of 40 is average.

We all want more than average starters out of first rounders. However, for a late first rounder becoming an average type starter isn't necessarily a bad outcome but it certainly isn't a good outcome. We usually hope for top 10 players at their position in the league with first rounders.

We need to move on from him for this team to make the next step. He just isn't the catalytic player we need at that position.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Do you think he is a top 10 OLB in a 3-4 defense?

If he isn't, he is basically in the middle which is average.

Off the top of my head I'd put him behind:

Ware
Kerrigan
Orakpo
Clay Matthews
Aldon Smith
Ahmad Brooks
Lemarr Woodley
James Harrison
Von Miller
Shaun Phillips
Ahmad Brooks
Connor Barwin
Tamba Hali
Cameron Wake

So there are 14 OLBs from 3-4 defenses I'd take ahead of Spencer. I can't remember how many teams play 3-4 but it's probably no more than half the league. Let's argue there are 20 teams that means 40 starters. Well being #16 out of 40 is average.

We all want more than average starters out of first rounders. However, for a late first rounder becoming an average type starter isn't necessarily a bad outcome but it certainly isn't a good outcome. We usually hope for top 10 players at their position in the league with first rounders.

We need to move on from him for this team to make the next step. He just isn't the catalytic player we need at that position.

Yea when you're picking late 1st round I think you want a starter at the max. You hope he's a star but all you want is a starter. Spencer has been what his draft position suggests. He's a good starter. He's reliable. I don't worry about Spencer on Sunday's. I know he isn't going to grab 10 sacks a season but he's going to play the run well and be pretty good in coverage.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

every guy is a steal or a bust that's what people like.

if spencer was a 3rd round pick, everyone would be in love with him. because he is a first round pick. he is a bum, dump him. cut him. get rid of him. same guy same performance.

 

[Bluestang]

Do you think he is a top 10 OLB in a 3-4 defense?

If he isn't, he is basically in the middle which is average.

Off the top of my head I'd put him behind:

Ware
Kerrigan
Orakpo
Clay Matthews
Aldon Smith
Ahmad Brooks
Lemarr Woodley
James Harrison
Von Miller
Shaun Phillips
Ahmad Brooks
Connor Barwin
Tamba Hali
Cameron Wake

So there are 14 OLBs from 3-4 defenses I'd take ahead of Spencer. I can't remember how many teams play 3-4 but it's probably no more than half the league. Let's argue there are 20 teams that means 40 starters. Well being #16 out of 40 is average.

We all want more than average starters out of first rounders. However, for a late first rounder becoming an average type starter isn't necessarily a bad outcome but it certainly isn't a good outcome. We usually hope for top 10 players at their position in the league with first rounders.

We need to move on from him for this team to make the next step. He just isn't the catalytic player we need at that position.

According to Bob Sturm Spencer was second on the team when he charted 29 "splash plays" on his 2011 performance.

What is a splash play?

In a short answer, a splash play is a term used in some franchises to describe a defensive big play. For our purposes, it is an interception, a sack, a tackle for loss, a strip of a fumble, a recovery of a fumble, a stuffed run, a defended pass, a batted ball at the line of scrimmage, or a hit that disrupts a play or a player. Essentially, a play that matters from the defense.

http://sturminator.blogspot.com/2012/08/splash-plays-part-4.html

And what was his conclusion?

So, what did this project show us? Ware is who we thought he was. Lee and Ratliff are terrific, but so is Spencer. But, then the drop off is substantial. For the Cowboys to be great, they need those 4 impact defenders to be joined by 3 or 4 more. Can Hatcher, Carr, Claiborne, and Lissemore or Church or Crawford join those ranks who make 20 plays of substance every season?

 

[theogt]

Spencer is okay.

He is an average starter that we are grossly overpaying and overvaluing.

Our ongoing inability to properly manage the salary cap is a major hindrance to our success on the field.

I know some will laud Jerry for winning the SB eons ago but we are regularly schooled by other teams with better managers and scouts. There is no way the Eagles, Patriots or Giants would get stuck franchising an underachiever like Spencer.

How so? The only player we know that we've coveted and lost out on would have been Nnamdi. But we managed to turn that into getting a cheaper, younger (who I think will be a better) player in Carr, precisely because we weren't willing to overpay for Nnamdi.

So what is the evidence of our cap mismanagement? Where has it hurt us? I mean, the very evidence you're using (Spencer) is vastly over paying for someone with a one year contract in the same year we signed 3 new free agent starters, one of whom was blockbuster contract. Did we need more cap space this year that we lost out on because of Spencer? Clearly his current contract does not count against next year, so we're not losing anything in the future either.

 

[Hoofbite]

How so? The only player we know that we've coveted and lost out on would have been Nnamdi. But we managed to turn that into getting a cheaper, younger (who I think will be a better) player in Carr, precisely because we weren't willing to overpay for Nnamdi.

So what is the evidence of our cap mismanagement? Where has it hurt us? I mean, the very evidence you're using (Spencer) is vastly over paying for someone with a one year contract in the same year we signed 3 new free agent starters, one of whom was blockbuster contract. Did we need more cap space this year that we lost out on because of Spencer? Clearly his current contract does not count against next year, so we're not losing anything in the future either.

I would like to see better cap management from the team.

I'd rather they push money down the line by choice rather than by necessity. As is, they pretty much write some contracts to be renegotiated a year later in order to free up space. Brandon Carr's contract will be renegotiated next season. 16M cap hit combined with some of the other cap figure jumps that are going to set in, no doubt.

I don't think the fact that Spencer didn't prevent Dallas from being active means that they haven't managed the cap poorly in regards to him. I think Spencer is a prime example actually, for a couple of reasons.


1. Had they not kept him they could have written just Brandon Carr's contract so as to free up more money next year. Give him a bigger base salary this year and his cap number doesn't jump 13M next season. But they'll renegotiate that so just for illustrative purposes lets say that they do renegotiate. Just a quick disclaimer, I am not a cap guru so don't get too worked up if I'm wrong on any part of it.

14.3M Base renegotiated to 1.3M (his base is 1.2M this year so I'm just shooting for close to that to get a nice round "millions" of moved money) making 13M guaranteed and spreading out across the remainder. Over 4 years, we're adding 3.25M to every additional years cap hit.

That now puts his final 3 years of his contract at 12.75, 13.25M, and 14.35M and gives them little ability to do anything with him should his play start to decline or God forbid he gets severely hurt. There isn't a single CB who will have a cap hit of 12M this year and even Nnamdi's contract won't break 12M for as many seasons as Carr's AND the Eagles can cut him whenever they want and not carry any dead money.

Cortland Finnegan essentially got the exact same contract. His cap hit peaks next year at 15M and then is 10M or less for the remainder of his contract. They'll likely renegotiate that number but even if you look at what that would do to his cap number, he still peaks at a cap number 500K less than Carr's lowest cap number over the remainder of each's contract (post 2013).

Now, this isn't an anti-Carr post. I love how he's played so far. He's earned the money but cap allocation is so flexible when writing contracts that it's hard to suggest that they couldn't done better in that regard.

2. The pigeonhole'd themselves. They cannot tag him again, he is going to hit the market. I don't think they can reasonably offer him what his demands will be after having received the tag this year. And quite honestly, I don't think he'll play well enough to even earn the cap space he's eating this year.

Now, look at Ahmad Brooks' contract. Depending on who you ask, some think Spencer is better and some go with Brooks. Whatever. They're equal enough to where the example will fit. If the 49ers cut him after this season, having him play only one year of his new contract they will only be forced to take a total cap hit of 9.1M. (I took the numbers from a breakdown I saw a little bit after the deal happened so I'm not sure if the post I saw had all the fine details in order. It seemed to be a good breakdown and the numbers look pretty on par with what spotrac has).

That's 300K more than what Dallas will pay Spencer for this year alone. So in a worst case scenario they get 1 year out of him, cut him and pay only 300K more than had they franchised him.

But what if Brooks plays well? What if they are happy with his performance and he improves a little bit just as he has done up until now. If that's the case, his 2012 cap hit and his 2013 cap hit combined will equal 9.5M. So if they keep him, they pay 700K more to get that 2nd year out of him as opposed to franchising him and watching him walk next season. And so long as he continues to play well he'll get more money (which is how it should be) because he has a heft chunk of incentives thrown in there. I'm not sure what they are exactly but they're there. At the same time, should his play decline in a couple years, they can cut bait and have little to carry in dead money.

They wrote a contract entirely beneficial to both parties. He plays well and earns his pay, he'll get it. He doesn't play well, the team can just move on. All the while, his cap hit maxes (with incentives) at 8.85M and that is in the 5th year. At that point though, he'll either be worth the cap hit or the team will cut him and save 7M in space.

3. They could have went after solid and proven OL. This one's easy. They could have had either of the prime Centers and Ben Grubbs at a cap hit less than Spencer's.

I will admit that Mack has looked better than I had anticipated. I'm actually pleased with what I have seen, although I didn't get to watch the last two games so it's basically based solely on the Charger game.

That said, I think the combo above would be a hell of a lot better for the team than the combo they have at those positions now. And just for the sake of answering a question that will probably be asked in "who plays OLB", they could have thrown on Wimbley. Take out one of the guards they did sign because they'd have been getting Grubbs and it's a dead wash in terms of combined cap hit this year versus Spencer's cap hit.

Or maybe they could have had as much confidence in the defensive's coaches ability to develop a player as they do in Callahan's ability to develop a player.


However you slice it, I think the handling of Spencer has been downright awful. If not for the cap space they could have created next year or the players they could have gotten then definitely because they are going to be in a worse position next year in terms of having an OLB. God forbid they offer him a new contract after this year. I don't see how they could. If he plays lights out, he's too expensive for a guy who couldn't earn an extension in the previous 5 seasons he had. If he plays like complete crap, why would they want to offer a new deal? If he plays as he has, why would they want to offer a guy a new deal when they basically paid him upfront to show them his best because what he had shown up until that point wasn't worth a long term commitment just 12 months prior?

Then again, just my opinion.

 

[Hoofbite]

According to Bob Sturm Spencer was second on the team when he charted 29 "splash plays" on his 2011 performance.

What is a splash play?

http://sturminator.blogspot.com/2012/08/splash-plays-part-4.html

And what was his conclusion?

Interesting read.

Not sure I would agree with all of it because I don't think stopping a guy at the line of scrimmage on a run play is every bit as valuable as a sack or an interception.

The bottom of the page has some interesting numbers.

Splashes/Snap

Bradie James: 1/207.5 Snaps
Mike Jenkins: 1/121.4 Snaps
Elam: 1/116.6 Snaps

 

[burmafrd]

Interesting read.

Not sure I would agree with all of it because I don't think stopping a guy at the line of scrimmage on a run play is every bit as valuable as a sack or an interception.

The bottom of the page has some interesting numbers.

Splashes/Snap

Bradie James: 1/207.5 Snaps
Mike Jenkins: 1/121.4 Snaps
Elam: 1/116.6 Snaps

that is another place that PFF screws up; they consider a TFL on first down for 1 yard the same as a Sack on third down for 1 yard. To them that is just as valuable for their 'rating system'

now spencer might get more sacks this year if the secondary plays better and forces the QB to hold the ball longer. But does not mean he is PLAYING better.

He had all last year as his contract year and got nothing more from him then the previous year for all intents and purposes

those saying that since he is a late round pick he is doing what is expected are full of it. We traded up to get him so we expected more.

 

[jaybird]

Spencer was a late first round pick. For his draft position, he's been fine.

for his draft status, a slight dissapointment. He's forever just a spit second late at getting to the QB, but stout against the run. I anticipate him getting 3-4 more sacks this year with an improved secondary. Unless they limit his snaps.

 

[DavidAK]

Does anyone feel Spencer will play up to his new Franchise Tag Salary?
I really thought we had a gem of a player when this guy was drafted.
Now I'm not sure.

After the finish of 09 where he even outplayed Ware from time to time. You better believe I thought he was worth every penny.

Now not so much.

 

[Hoofbite]

that is another place that PFF screws up; they consider a TFL on first down for 1 yard the same as a Sack on third down for 1 yard. To them that is just as valuable for their 'rating system'

now spencer might get more sacks this year if the secondary plays better and forces the QB to hold the ball longer. But does not mean he is PLAYING better.

He had all last year as his contract year and got nothing more from him then the previous year for all intents and purposes

those saying that since he is a late round pick he is doing what is expected are full of it. We traded up to get him so we expected more.

I agree with your point but I think it was Sturm who came up with those numbers.

He classified certain plays as "crash plays" and has a whole long list of qualifying plays.

I think he only used PFF to get a snap count.

I saw in one of the lists he credited Spencer with a "Strong Stop" which I'm not really sure is a "major difference maker" in a game.

A splash play is a play that makes a major difference in the game. And by keeping it all season long, we will see which defenders are play makers and which are simply warm bodies. We already have our thoughts on both categories, but let's see if we can dig a bit deeper and actually have numbers to back up our claims.

When's the last time a single tackle for loss or no gain made a major difference? If he wants to argue that situational stops for no gain or a loss are major difference makers, for example a stop on 4th & 1 late in a close game, I might buy into it. But just a tackle for loss or no gain on any down at any point in a game.......that's a major difference maker?

 

[Hoofbite]

After the finish of 09 where he even outplayed Ware from time to time. You better believe I thought he was worth every penny.

Now not so much.

That's a frustrating part too. He has been better.

 

[Eskimo]

What I mean by poor cap management is this:

1. We routinely extend declining vets. The latest egregious example of this is Rat's extension last year at $8M per year and I think $16M guaranteed. If we had left things be Rat would be in his contract year this year. Now do you think you could get Rat for less than $16M guaranteed next season with his mounting injury issues? He had PF all offseason, gets in a quarter and gets a high ankle sprain. This looks a lot like Kyle Kosier II here. I'd sure like to have that money to pursue a premium DL next season.

2. Anthony Spencer isn't anywhere close to being worth his contract. We could have let him hit FA an pursued a replacement in this draft. Now some will say they really like Claiborne but he doesn't look anywhere close to Deion Jr. to me. This was an incredibly deep draft and we went to bat only once in the first 80 picks and that was a big mistake. Had we managed the draft better we could have gotten a good CB an OLB replacement and still have 8M left to use elsewhere.

This is just one example where I feel we do not maximize our resources between cap space, draft space and FA.

3. We routinely do not extend promising players early in their careers and instead wait until they are about to hit FA before we extend them. This causes

These are the 3 main issues I have with how we operate under the cap. I don't think it is mere coincidence that we have won all of one playoff game since the salary cap was instituted. We couldn't even win more than one with a franchise QB and the best defensive player in the league.