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http://blog.washingtonpost.com/redskinsinsider/2008/04/the_numbers_dont_lie.html#more
The Numbers Don't Lie
It's been impossible not to notice the stark contrast between this off season and most every one prior under Dan Snyder/Vinny Cerrato. Even in previous years where spending was down, they were always chasing at least a few free agents from the onset, wining and dining players at the start of free agency, etc.
Sure, Snyder's other businesses are in the tank and the economy is stumbling, and the Commanders had very limited cap space, especially when compared to most other teams. But reality is, they couldn't keep doing what they we're doing forever, and, most importantly, it wasn't working. Not even close.
Since 2000, the first year Snyder really had control of the team (he took over in the summer of 1999, with the off season over and the roster largely ser), the Commanders have been the most inefficient team in the NFL, regardless of the coach, starting quarterback, or anything else.
I got my hands on some figures compiled by the NFL Management Council on dead cap, and "committed cash" - which shows what teams really spend on players in any given year (the salary cap is soft and this shows what teams really spent, in real dollars included all bonuses and incentives in that league year, not just cap dollars spent). These figures are distributed to teams and the NFLPA, and I obtained them through league sources.
Here are the top 5 spending teams, in committed cash, since 2000:
1 Commanders $747 million
2 Indy $710 million
3 Balt $708 million
4 Dallas $700 million
5 New England - $694 million
Three of those 5 teams won Super Bowls, the other two reside in the NFC East
How about the top 5 teams in dead cap space since 2000?
1 Commanders $83 million
2 San Fran $80 million
3 Denver -$80 million
4 Tennessee $78 million
5 Oakland $75 million
That's like giving away one year of payroll every 8 seasons (the 2004 NFL cap was $80 million, as a comparison).
Yikes, not the company you want to keep, eh? The 49ers and Raiders have had front offices in perpetual disarray, Denver just fired its GM and the Titans let Floyd Reese go a year ago and gutted their aging team after nearly missing on the Super Bowl a few times early this decade.
So, for all of that spending,, and binging and purging, where do the Skins rank in wins since 2000 - 23rd with 58 wins. They won 1 playoff game, no division titles and hosted no playoff games.
"This stuff right here, these numbers, this is the NFL's version of 'Moneyball,'" said one high ranking official who had studying the spreadsheets from the management council. "This is how you grade the managers. This is how you evaluate the guys paid to do the evaluating. The numbers don't lie."
Let's look more closely at the short term. Dead cap totals for the past three years:
1 Tenn - $65 million
2 Houston - $57 million
3 Commanders $55 million
4 Miami - $50 million
5 Denver - $49 million
Now, as we went over, the Titans got rid of Reese - who has had a long and distinguished career and has a strong coaching backround along with his front office work - and went with a new regime. Houston parted with Charley Casserly, who ran and put together that expansion team. Denver fired its GM a few weeks back - though much of the blame must go to the ubber-powerful head coach there as well - and Miami completely overhauled its front office a few months back, with The Tuna ushering in a new regime.
What did the Commanders do? They handed the keys to the entire kingdom to Cerrato, the only constant of the Snyder era, who has been repeatedly promoted. The same guy who, a year ago, according to league sources, the Commanders very nearly replaced or at least demoted, with Gibbs coming very close to hiring someone else to oversee the personnel department.
This, my friends, is why the rest of the league looks at the Commanders as they do when it comes to these things. This is why so many people are dubious about this Snyder/Cerrato tandem working out.
Take a look at the past 4 years, The era of the much talked about Gibbs/Cerrato/Snyder front office model, and no team spent more in committed cash - $431 million - but at least they got two playoff appearances for that. And just because the Commanders aren't signing a bunch of free agents this season does not mean they will not have high committed cash totals, as they continue to rework 10 contracts each off season and guarantee huge chunks of money to aging players. The dead cap waste has been a constant of Snyder's as well. Trust me, Joe Gibbs never claimed to be a master salary negotiator, that's not why he was there. That's Snyder and Cerrato's domain, with their cap guy, Eric Schaffer. Gibbs loved to spend but never pretended to be a cap guru.
Imagine what a force the Commanders could have been had they actually found a way to utilize those massive resources at even close to the rate of most of the NFL's top front offices? They could be a juggernaut, the NFC's Patriots, but they have been miss-managed on many fronts in terms of player acquisitions and payroll.
Four years ago, prior to Gibbs first training camp back, Snyder and Cerrato told me they had learned from their mistakes, had the salary cap figured out and were close to winning their first Super Bowl. They had learned from their mistakes, and were better for it. Won't get fooled again, they said.
Two years ago, through an outside PR firm Snyder had hired to help try to restore his image at the time, he made the same remarks via email to me: Learned from the past, older and wiser now, got things better figured out now, ready to give the city a winner.
During the Gibbs departure press conference we got more of the same - more stable now, learned from our mistakes, learned from Coach Joe, yada, yada yada, And perhaps, finally, they have. Showing some restraint in a poor free agent market with limited available cap space is a positive step no doubt.
But this is also a veteran team, particularly aging at some key spots on both sides of the line, and the years of restructured contracts has continued to push huge cap sums into the future. So this is why I cast a skeptical eye (and, oh yeah, it's also part of my job). I tend to fall back on that axiom Bush butchers - "Fool me one, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."
We'll see if they become demons at the draft table. We'll see how they fare in player development. We'll see how they manage the cap. We'll see if they make cold, calculated decisions about rebuilding and shedding high priced veterans, or if they keep redoing every contract they can, convinced that THIS is the year.
Attach the W's and L's to Snyder and Cerrato, for better or worse, and keep your fingers crossed.
By Jason La Canfora | April 4, 2008; 6:29 AM ET
The Numbers Don't Lie
It's been impossible not to notice the stark contrast between this off season and most every one prior under Dan Snyder/Vinny Cerrato. Even in previous years where spending was down, they were always chasing at least a few free agents from the onset, wining and dining players at the start of free agency, etc.
Sure, Snyder's other businesses are in the tank and the economy is stumbling, and the Commanders had very limited cap space, especially when compared to most other teams. But reality is, they couldn't keep doing what they we're doing forever, and, most importantly, it wasn't working. Not even close.
Since 2000, the first year Snyder really had control of the team (he took over in the summer of 1999, with the off season over and the roster largely ser), the Commanders have been the most inefficient team in the NFL, regardless of the coach, starting quarterback, or anything else.
I got my hands on some figures compiled by the NFL Management Council on dead cap, and "committed cash" - which shows what teams really spend on players in any given year (the salary cap is soft and this shows what teams really spent, in real dollars included all bonuses and incentives in that league year, not just cap dollars spent). These figures are distributed to teams and the NFLPA, and I obtained them through league sources.
Here are the top 5 spending teams, in committed cash, since 2000:
1 Commanders $747 million
2 Indy $710 million
3 Balt $708 million
4 Dallas $700 million
5 New England - $694 million
Three of those 5 teams won Super Bowls, the other two reside in the NFC East
How about the top 5 teams in dead cap space since 2000?
1 Commanders $83 million
2 San Fran $80 million
3 Denver -$80 million
4 Tennessee $78 million
5 Oakland $75 million
That's like giving away one year of payroll every 8 seasons (the 2004 NFL cap was $80 million, as a comparison).
Yikes, not the company you want to keep, eh? The 49ers and Raiders have had front offices in perpetual disarray, Denver just fired its GM and the Titans let Floyd Reese go a year ago and gutted their aging team after nearly missing on the Super Bowl a few times early this decade.
So, for all of that spending,, and binging and purging, where do the Skins rank in wins since 2000 - 23rd with 58 wins. They won 1 playoff game, no division titles and hosted no playoff games.
"This stuff right here, these numbers, this is the NFL's version of 'Moneyball,'" said one high ranking official who had studying the spreadsheets from the management council. "This is how you grade the managers. This is how you evaluate the guys paid to do the evaluating. The numbers don't lie."
Let's look more closely at the short term. Dead cap totals for the past three years:
1 Tenn - $65 million
2 Houston - $57 million
3 Commanders $55 million
4 Miami - $50 million
5 Denver - $49 million
Now, as we went over, the Titans got rid of Reese - who has had a long and distinguished career and has a strong coaching backround along with his front office work - and went with a new regime. Houston parted with Charley Casserly, who ran and put together that expansion team. Denver fired its GM a few weeks back - though much of the blame must go to the ubber-powerful head coach there as well - and Miami completely overhauled its front office a few months back, with The Tuna ushering in a new regime.
What did the Commanders do? They handed the keys to the entire kingdom to Cerrato, the only constant of the Snyder era, who has been repeatedly promoted. The same guy who, a year ago, according to league sources, the Commanders very nearly replaced or at least demoted, with Gibbs coming very close to hiring someone else to oversee the personnel department.
This, my friends, is why the rest of the league looks at the Commanders as they do when it comes to these things. This is why so many people are dubious about this Snyder/Cerrato tandem working out.
Take a look at the past 4 years, The era of the much talked about Gibbs/Cerrato/Snyder front office model, and no team spent more in committed cash - $431 million - but at least they got two playoff appearances for that. And just because the Commanders aren't signing a bunch of free agents this season does not mean they will not have high committed cash totals, as they continue to rework 10 contracts each off season and guarantee huge chunks of money to aging players. The dead cap waste has been a constant of Snyder's as well. Trust me, Joe Gibbs never claimed to be a master salary negotiator, that's not why he was there. That's Snyder and Cerrato's domain, with their cap guy, Eric Schaffer. Gibbs loved to spend but never pretended to be a cap guru.
Imagine what a force the Commanders could have been had they actually found a way to utilize those massive resources at even close to the rate of most of the NFL's top front offices? They could be a juggernaut, the NFC's Patriots, but they have been miss-managed on many fronts in terms of player acquisitions and payroll.
Four years ago, prior to Gibbs first training camp back, Snyder and Cerrato told me they had learned from their mistakes, had the salary cap figured out and were close to winning their first Super Bowl. They had learned from their mistakes, and were better for it. Won't get fooled again, they said.
Two years ago, through an outside PR firm Snyder had hired to help try to restore his image at the time, he made the same remarks via email to me: Learned from the past, older and wiser now, got things better figured out now, ready to give the city a winner.
During the Gibbs departure press conference we got more of the same - more stable now, learned from our mistakes, learned from Coach Joe, yada, yada yada, And perhaps, finally, they have. Showing some restraint in a poor free agent market with limited available cap space is a positive step no doubt.
But this is also a veteran team, particularly aging at some key spots on both sides of the line, and the years of restructured contracts has continued to push huge cap sums into the future. So this is why I cast a skeptical eye (and, oh yeah, it's also part of my job). I tend to fall back on that axiom Bush butchers - "Fool me one, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."
We'll see if they become demons at the draft table. We'll see how they fare in player development. We'll see how they manage the cap. We'll see if they make cold, calculated decisions about rebuilding and shedding high priced veterans, or if they keep redoing every contract they can, convinced that THIS is the year.
Attach the W's and L's to Snyder and Cerrato, for better or worse, and keep your fingers crossed.
By Jason La Canfora | April 4, 2008; 6:29 AM ET
