ST: History shows sophomore seasons can be unpredictable in NFL

[jobberone]

Robert Griffin III recorded a high completion percentage in his rookie season only to taper off in Year 2. Jeff Haynes AP

History shows sophomore seasons can be unpredictable in NFL
BY KEVIN CASAS kcasas@star-telegram.com
SEPTEMBER 09, 2017 6:04 PM

The Dallas Cowboys need quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott to be good in their second NFL seasons in many ways.

Elliott, who won a motion for a temporary restraining order against the NFL’s six-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy, led the NFL in rushing as a rookie 1,631 yards.

Prescott will be watched and measured closely as the undisputed starter heading into the season this time around.

Let’s take a historical look.

Since Earl Campbell bettered a spectacular rookie year with a better second season in 1979,about half of the top 10 rookie performances in NFL history saw a marked increased in production in the second season.

Of those, two players (Mike Anderson and George Rogers) had injury-shortened seasons.

Eric Dickerson ran for 2,105 yards and 14 touchdowns in his second season with the Los Angeles Rams after an NFL rookie record of 1,808 yards and 18 touchdowns.

Of the top five running backs, the increase in positive yardage was 15.7 percent on average, and four of the teams with those top five returned to the playoffs.

Elliott averaged 108.7 yards a game last season.

Prescott threw 23 touchdowns with four interceptions.

***SNIP***

http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/nfl/dallas-cowboys/article172323127.html

 

[jobberone]

1. Leave the Zeke and league issue out of this thread.
2. I started to change the pic but didn't because of copyright issues....ok

I actually don't expect a dropoff for either of these players although teams are likely to sell out against the run. I hope so as I think Dak can handle that and will back them out of the box and make them pay for it.

Interesting from a historical standpoint and I hope some of the board's historians tackle the thread or at least comment.

I'm not certain RG is a good example as he was never a pocket NFL passer IMO. He was a slash that lost his slash enough to matter. How many slash type QBs have made good. How many runners? I can give you the passers who had some slash starting with Roger Staubach and mentioning Steve Young. I see Dak as a passer who can run if he has to. How many guys make good the first year as genuine passers and fall off the table afterwards?

 

[links18]

Indeed...

 

[Don Corleone]

Dak is no RG3. He's put in work in the offseason to get better and better. I expect that he and Dez will have better chemistry this year. Especially on the deep ball.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

1. Leave the Zeke and league issue out of this thread.
2. I started to change the pic but didn't because of copyright issues....ok

I actually don't expect a dropoff for either of these players although teams are likely to sell out against the run. I hope so as I think Dak can handle that and will back them out of the box and make them pay for it.

Interesting from a historical standpoint and I hope some of the board's historians tackle the thread or at least comment.

I'm not certain RG is a good example as he was never a pocket NFL passer IMO. He was a slash that lost his slash enough to matter. How many slash type QBs have made good. How many runners? I can give you the passers who had some slash starting with Roger Staubach and mentioning Steve Young. I see Dak as a passer who can run if he has to. How many guys make good the first year as genuine passers and fall off the table afterwards?

It used to be a thing but when you look at the past 15 years it has not been an issue for the majority of QBs. Sure you have RG3 and one or two others but the rest did not have that issue.

I like how they cherry picked completion percentage. When you look at QB rating, the much more comprehensive stat, the issue goes away.

 

[Alexander]

The lead picture to the article told me that it was a bunch of nonsense.

 

[NorthTexan95]

Anybody who compares Dak to RG III has no knowledge of football or hasn't spent any time studying it.

 

[SDCowboy]

I stopped reading as soon as I saw RG3 mentioned.

 

[Alexander]

Dak is no RG3.

In a lot of ways. So many ways that it blows my mind that people think they are remotely the same.

Griffin was a headcase, a fact that has not been nearly documented as much as it should have.

Prescott appears squared away and on point. If he is not, he is doing one fine job of faking it.

 

[viman96]

Dak may have not been in college but last year he was a drop back QB who could run. He was not a run first QB like RG3. Not sure there is a QB like Dak. He is kind of like a combo of Big Ben and Russel Wilson but not sure that really describes him either.

 

[jobberone]

The lead picture to the article told me that it was a bunch of nonsense.

You're missing the point. The article is not about RG. It's about sophomore slumps.

 

[jobberone]

Dak may have not been in college but last year he was a drop back QB who could run. He was not a run first QB like RG3. Not sure there is a QB like Dak. He is kind of like a combo of Big Ben and Russel Wilson but not sure that really describes him either.

I agree. Not about RG but about 2nd year fall off. That's why there's more on RBs.

 

[Alexander]

You're missing the point. The article is not about RG. It's about sophomore slumps.

And the effect is spoiled by the picture.

Sorry, but that is an important part of presenting something, whether it be an article or anything else.

Get your first impression right.

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

Dak is the real deal.....period!

 

[ShiningStar]

Dak has qualities defenses cant take away. Hes a leader, doesnt get fazed by bad plays, keeps poised under pressure and the team is believing in him. I dont think a slump in just stats but i think he ll be a more rounded QB. he has accepted the mantle of being a QB and not just a guy being a qb. Huge difference.