CFZ State of the Cowboys: bye Week

jterrell

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Dallas spent the off-season finally pushing the chips to the middle.
They added Gilmore and Cooks to bolster a playoff team.

As we sit entering week 7 and the team's Bye, they are basically where they were last year.
Outside of the elites but in the next tier.

SF, KC, Buff and MIA look like elites to me. Those teams are all +59 points or better on the season. So basically, averaging a 10-point win.

PHI, DET, DAL, BALT, JAX all look like a clear next tier. Flaws but still enough talent to win most weeks. JAX is only +20 so a bit shaky on this tier but 3 straight wins and a W over Buffalo gets them the nod.
DAL is pretty firmly in this tier.

Coaching: Dan Quinn is once again tossing gems as DC. Arizona and SF found ways to challenge this defense, but injuries mid-week mentally shook the team versus ARI and SF is simply more talented when they are fully healthy.
Offensively, it has been Back to the Future. Stale scheme seems a bit of an issue versus quality opponents. WRs aren't readily open and the run blocking scheme is very dated. The offense can really use this BYE week to tweak things.
Since CeeDee can win on most routes this team should have Cooks in motion A LOT.
Run fits have to improve to the point where we aren't just giving away first downs with runs of 2 yards or less.

Groups:
QB: Dak has been fine all but the YOLO stuff after down 21 at SF was full on Monty Python. He doesn't look settled in this new offense, but he's played well enough to have Dallas on that 2nd tier and his last game was easily his best of the season. He needs to protect himself and find a few more answers in this scheme that don't require getting hit to make a play.
RB: TP is a quality back and has both blocked and caught it at elite levels. The running has just dipped down as he takes more snaps and wear.
Dowdle runs hard but occasionally looks lost. Dowdle and Vaughn each grade massively into negatives for pass pro by PFF. Could use a quality vet RB IMO. Yes, I'd be fine with trade for Zeke on his current contract. But no he isn't the best talent available. Connor or Henry would be ideal if contract and compensation can be settled.
WR: Closer to league average than anyone would have expected. Cooks was banged up early and been slow to get going. Gallup is no longer a deep threat and he isn't making tough catches. WR1, WR2, WR3 and WR4 are pretty clearly set in their roles and not outplaying those standards yet. Some help from the offense could change that.
TE: Ferguson is a good player, but Dallas has nothing behind him, and he gets pounded. Bottom 10 group easily and perhaps bottom 5. Really need Schoon to step up from awful to below average. Anyone with a pulse would help here. Wonder how mad Ertz is at Philly?
OL; Getting healthier finally but there is some age and the OC is playing hurt. Group is battling and doing fine most weeks but they are not elite. Would love 1 more starter level guy so would the rest of the league.

DL: A++. Enough said there.
LB: Very solid. Can struggle with power runners but has speed and is building depth enough to overcome LVE neck woes.
S: Mid. Been a step back season at Safety. Dono was injured and slow out of gate. Kearse was pressing trying to make miracles happen. Lots of talent here but needs to meet last year's form.
CB: Was a top 5 group with Diggs but loses a lot in his absence. Bland is capable but also beatable when playing top outside WR. Lewis is tough but he doesn't need to cover long routes. Gilmore is a savvy vet that is making plays.

ST: Turpin has to catch the ball. Kicker has been nails. Solid overall group.

Schedule: Dallas December sched looks very nasty. Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Lions is tough sledding.
But outside that stretch the games are pretty winnable. The 6 games prior to December are Rams, Eagles, Giants, Panthers, Commodes, Seahawks.
Definitely should be in good shape for a playoff spot entering that nasty December stretch.

With two weeks to go until the trade deadline and some glaring weaknesses it would be ideal to add some talent during the BYE. Send the message we are all in and plug some holes. McCarthy's offense really requires better TE and RB play than what are getting. When those positions fell off in GB they struggled even with ARod at the helm.
 

Big D

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Offense: I would like to see us use the speed we have at rb and attack the edges more than the interior of the defense. Also we need to get Tolbert , Ferguson, and Luepke more involved.
Defense: Sometimes I think we play too aggressive and teams are counting on that. Just playing with a little more discipline and patience would help IMO
ST: the kicking unit is good but we should really block better on punt returns.

We have much to work on and that's a good thing. It prevents the team from getting big heads which they are prone to do once the cheese starts flying around. Overall, not a bad start of the season in my eyes.
 

big dog cowboy

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Really need Schoon to step up from awful to below average.
Not trying to defend or make excuses. But he did miss training camp and preseason.

Not sure how you can say he is awful. Blocking is fine. Just 6 targets in 6 games as the entire offense has sputtered to start this season.

I mean, what can he do? Every WR, TE and RB has suffered in this offense.
 

noshame

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9-8 best case.
Warts re-appear against the rams. Chargers are a bad defense whose QB was, and has been, way off for a few weeks
 

jterrell

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Pretty solid piece, but I would argue you went too easy on the oline.

Dak avoided countless sacks last game and the run blocking through 6 games has been average at best.

I get they have battled injuries, but it's the NFL, every team does.
You are not at all wrong.
I split the OL blame here a bit between play design and OL itself and RB/TE blocking.
But this group isn't performing in the same universe as SF which is a huge reason that game looked the way it did.
Fair to offer them more criticism to be sure!

All that said the TE and RB have to help them block at times and the blocking grades for Dowdle and Vaughn are BELOW 20. Nearly impossible to be that bad.
And only Ferguson is above 40s at TE. Just not helping the OL.
 

jterrell

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wow ...didnt realize we wrapped with Eagles, BIlls, Dolphins and LIons...that is absolutly insane...2-2 in that stretch would be very good....
Look at the Eagles next 4-5 games.
NFCE has some tough schedules.

And yup you better take care of business the next 6 games then hope to go 2-2 there.
 

jterrell

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Offense: I would like to see us use the speed we have at rb and attack the edges more than the interior of the defense. Also we need to get Tolbert , Ferguson, and Luepke more involved.
Defense: Sometimes I think we play too aggressive and teams are counting on that. Just playing with a little more discipline and patience would help IMO
ST: the kicking unit is good but we should really block better on punt returns.

We have much to work on and that's a good thing. It prevents the team from getting big heads which they are prone to do once the cheese starts flying around. Overall, not a bad start of the season in my eyes.
Offense: Agreed, Team has had success getting to edges with Cooks, Turpin, TP.
Luepke is an HBack so situational, but he is a solid receiving option and with the lack of TE I think they need to use him.

Defense: No doubt. They seem to try to race each other to the QB to the pint of stupid penalties.
They end up having to defend 12 play drives that would have been 3 to 5 if they stayed onsides. Insane.

Definitely need to rest this week but be ready to work next week hard on these flaws.
 

jterrell

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9-8 best case.
Warts re-appear against the rams. Chargers are a bad defense whose QB was, and has been, way off for a few weeks
Vegas has them at 10.5; if you are confident that's a bet you should make.
I think it would take key injuries to fall to 9 wins but the schedule in December IS nasty.

I had them at 12 wins before the year and have them at 11 wins now with the Cards game being a bad beat and Detroit and Miami looking really good.

I wouldn't crap on the Chargers win at all. It was on the road, and you did muff a punt, had double-digit penalties and still won.
Herbert's QBR is 6th and his QB Rating is 5th. He's not a bum at all and has an arm talent in the top 3. But he does struggle on off schedule throws and his vision isn't great. LAC is still a +2 on the year and made the playoffs last year.
They are a pretty average NFL team who likely goes 8-9 wins with a chance at a tail end playoff spot.
Jets were supposedly bums when we blasted them but are now up to 3-3 with a win over a very good team.
 

jterrell

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Not trying to defend or make excuses. But he did miss training camp and preseason.

Not sure how you can say he is awful. Blocking is fine. Just 6 targets in 6 games as the entire offense has sputtered to start this season.

I mean, what can he do? Every WR, TE and RB has suffered in this offense.
Better days are obviously ahead for him but he has been insanely bad.
His PFF grade is 40.7 which ranks him 66 of 68 qualified TEs graded.
He has 6 targets with 3 drops. That is tough to do if you try.
Team stopped throwing him the ball because he cannot catch.
But maybe the bye will get him going.

I wanted Dallas to target a TE in this draft class so was very hopeful of him, but it just hasn't happened yet.

And I understand the missing camp slows things down but he has been a level of bad to where they stopped playing him at all and that is not good.
They signed McKeon back and gave him the snaps instead.
McKeon passes through waivers unclaimed.

TE is scary bad.
 

Jipper

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Look at the Eagles next 4-5 games.
NFCE has some tough schedules.

And yup you better take care of business the next 6 games then hope to go 2-2 there.
they just need to stay healthy- kinda feel like the NFC team thats going to win it all this year is going to be the team that ends up healthiest
 

JustChip

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SF, KC, Buff and MIA look like elites to me. Those teams are all +59 points or better on the season. So basically, averaging a 10-point win.
Not sure why you consider the Bills among the elite. They’re 4-2. Sure, they have a +84 point differential, but that’s on the strength of 3 blowout wins. Their other 3 games are 2 losses and a win (that frankly probably should’ve lost) while averaging 17 points and 20 max. They’re the Cowboys to me. A team that can have a blowout win one week and an underperforming loss the next week depending on how their QB performs.
 

jterrell

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Not sure why you consider the Bills among the elite. They’re 4-2. Sure, they have a +84 point differential, but that’s on the strength of 3 blowout wins. Their other 3 games are 2 losses and a win (that frankly probably should’ve lost) while averaging 17 points and 20 max. They’re the Cowboys to me. A team that can have a blowout win one week and an underperforming loss the next week depending on how their QB performs.
Largely because they beat the still healthy Dolphins by 28 which is as impressive a win as exists this year.
I do think they could fall back to good in quick order.
Point differential has historically held up in computer models where wins and losses do not.

If Dallas had Trevon to guard his brother I'd pick Dallas in that match up for sure. Without him I lean Buff right now.

Dallas has no reason to be complacent, they need to get better, not just ride this out to the playoffs.
 

noshame

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Vegas has them at 10.5; if you are confident that's a bet you should make.
I think it would take key injuries to fall to 9 wins but the schedule in December IS nasty.

I had them at 12 wins before the year and have them at 11 wins now with the Cards game being a bad beat and Detroit and Miami looking really good.

I wouldn't crap on the Chargers win at all. It was on the road, and you did muff a punt, had double-digit penalties and still won.
Herbert's QBR is 6th and his QB Rating is 5th. He's not a bum at all and has an arm talent in the top 3. But he does struggle on off schedule throws and his vision isn't great. LAC is still a +2 on the year and made the playoffs last year.
They are a pretty average NFL team who likely goes 8-9 wins with a chance at a tail end playoff spot.
Jets were supposedly bums when we blasted them but are now up to 3-3 with a win over a very good team.
Honestly, it depends on one thing, and that is moving dak out of the pocket as often as possible. If we do that, we have a shot at maybe 11 wins or better.
As far as the Chargers go, I'm not really discounting the win as much as I am discounting Herbert's performance. My son's a charger's fan. I've seen every charger's game for 20 years. I know Herbert like my back pocket. Hes off something's wrong, I don't know what. But regardless, it was a good defensive effort by Quinn and company.
 
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