CFZ State of the Cowboys: bye Week

[Cowboyny]

Dallas spent the off-season finally pushing the chips to the middle.
They added Gilmore and Cooks to bolster a playoff team.

As we sit entering week 7 and the team's Bye, they are basically where they were last year.
Outside of the elites but in the next tier.

SF, KC, Buff and MIA look like elites to me. Those teams are all +59 points or better on the season. So basically, averaging a 10-point win.

PHI, DET, DAL, BALT, JAX all look like a clear next tier. Flaws but still enough talent to win most weeks. JAX is only +20 so a bit shaky on this tier but 3 straight wins and a W over Buffalo gets them the nod.
DAL is pretty firmly in this tier.

Coaching: Dan Quinn is once again tossing gems as DC. Arizona and SF found ways to challenge this defense, but injuries mid-week mentally shook the team versus ARI and SF is simply more talented when they are fully healthy.
Offensively, it has been Back to the Future. Stale scheme seems a bit of an issue versus quality opponents. WRs aren't readily open and the run blocking scheme is very dated. The offense can really use this BYE week to tweak things.
Since CeeDee can win on most routes this team should have Cooks in motion A LOT.
Run fits have to improve to the point where we aren't just giving away first downs with runs of 2 yards or less.

Groups:
QB: Dak has been fine all but the YOLO stuff after down 21 at SF was full on Monty Python. He doesn't look settled in this new offense, but he's played well enough to have Dallas on that 2nd tier and his last game was easily his best of the season. He needs to protect himself and find a few more answers in this scheme that don't require getting hit to make a play.
RB: TP is a quality back and has both blocked and caught it at elite levels. The running has just dipped down as he takes more snaps and wear.
Dowdle runs hard but occasionally looks lost. Dowdle and Vaughn each grade massively into negatives for pass pro by PFF. Could use a quality vet RB IMO. Yes, I'd be fine with trade for Zeke on his current contract. But no he isn't the best talent available. Connor or Henry would be ideal if contract and compensation can be settled.
WR: Closer to league average than anyone would have expected. Cooks was banged up early and been slow to get going. Gallup is no longer a deep threat and he isn't making tough catches. WR1, WR2, WR3 and WR4 are pretty clearly set in their roles and not outplaying those standards yet. Some help from the offense could change that.
TE: Ferguson is a good player, but Dallas has nothing behind him, and he gets pounded. Bottom 10 group easily and perhaps bottom 5. Really need Schoon to step up from awful to below average. Anyone with a pulse would help here. Wonder how mad Ertz is at Philly?
OL; Getting healthier finally but there is some age and the OC is playing hurt. Group is battling and doing fine most weeks but they are not elite. Would love 1 more starter level guy so would the rest of the league.

DL: A++. Enough said there.
LB: Very solid. Can struggle with power runners but has speed and is building depth enough to overcome LVE neck woes.
S: Mid. Been a step back season at Safety. Dono was injured and slow out of gate. Kearse was pressing trying to make miracles happen. Lots of talent here but needs to meet last year's form.
CB: Was a top 5 group with Diggs but loses a lot in his absence. Bland is capable but also beatable when playing top outside WR. Lewis is tough but he doesn't need to cover long routes. Gilmore is a savvy vet that is making plays.

ST: Turpin has to catch the ball. Kicker has been nails. Solid overall group.

Schedule: Dallas December sched looks very nasty. Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Lions is tough sledding.
But outside that stretch the games are pretty winnable. The 6 games prior to December are Rams, Eagles, Giants, Panthers, Commodes, Seahawks.
Definitely should be in good shape for a playoff spot entering that nasty December stretch.

With two weeks to go until the trade deadline and some glaring weaknesses it would be ideal to add some talent during the BYE. Send the message we are all in and plug some holes. McCarthy's offense really requires better TE and RB play than what are getting. When those positions fell off in GB they struggled even with ARod at the helm.

Ertz isn't the same player, but the positional group could use a veteran presence, could really help the red zone. Think adding a veteran RB makes a lot of sense too, even if it's no Henry.

 

[JustChip]

Largely because they beat the still healthy Dolphins by 28 which is as impressive a win as exists this year.
I do think they could fall back to good in quick order.
Point differential has historically held up in computer models where wins and losses do not.

If Dallas had Trevon to guard his brother I'd pick Dallas in that match up for sure. Without him I lean Buff right now.

Dallas has no reason to be complacent, they need to get better, not just ride this out to the playoffs.

I wasn’t saying Buffalo and Dallas are equal, but I don’t think they’re that dissimilar.

I was really questioning Buffalo on the same plane as KC and SF. They’re certainly the elite of the league.

Just for what-ifs, if this year’s Buffalo and KC teams play 10 times on a neutral field, I would expect KC to win the majority. Same for SF if they and Buffalo play.

 

[CCBoy]

Dallas spent the off-season finally pushing the chips to the middle.
They added Gilmore and Cooks to bolster a playoff team.

As we sit entering week 7 and the team's Bye, they are basically where they were last year.
Outside of the elites but in the next tier.

SF, KC, Buff and MIA look like elites to me. Those teams are all +59 points or better on the season. So basically, averaging a 10-point win.

PHI, DET, DAL, BALT, JAX all look like a clear next tier. Flaws but still enough talent to win most weeks. JAX is only +20 so a bit shaky on this tier but 3 straight wins and a W over Buffalo gets them the nod.
DAL is pretty firmly in this tier.

Coaching: Dan Quinn is once again tossing gems as DC. Arizona and SF found ways to challenge this defense, but injuries mid-week mentally shook the team versus ARI and SF is simply more talented when they are fully healthy.
Offensively, it has been Back to the Future. Stale scheme seems a bit of an issue versus quality opponents. WRs aren't readily open and the run blocking scheme is very dated. The offense can really use this BYE week to tweak things.
Since CeeDee can win on most routes this team should have Cooks in motion A LOT.
Run fits have to improve to the point where we aren't just giving away first downs with runs of 2 yards or less.

Groups:
QB: Dak has been fine all but the YOLO stuff after down 21 at SF was full on Monty Python. He doesn't look settled in this new offense, but he's played well enough to have Dallas on that 2nd tier and his last game was easily his best of the season. He needs to protect himself and find a few more answers in this scheme that don't require getting hit to make a play.
RB: TP is a quality back and has both blocked and caught it at elite levels. The running has just dipped down as he takes more snaps and wear.
Dowdle runs hard but occasionally looks lost. Dowdle and Vaughn each grade massively into negatives for pass pro by PFF. Could use a quality vet RB IMO. Yes, I'd be fine with trade for Zeke on his current contract. But no he isn't the best talent available. Connor or Henry would be ideal if contract and compensation can be settled.
WR: Closer to league average than anyone would have expected. Cooks was banged up early and been slow to get going. Gallup is no longer a deep threat and he isn't making tough catches. WR1, WR2, WR3 and WR4 are pretty clearly set in their roles and not outplaying those standards yet. Some help from the offense could change that.
TE: Ferguson is a good player, but Dallas has nothing behind him, and he gets pounded. Bottom 10 group easily and perhaps bottom 5. Really need Schoon to step up from awful to below average. Anyone with a pulse would help here. Wonder how mad Ertz is at Philly?
OL; Getting healthier finally but there is some age and the OC is playing hurt. Group is battling and doing fine most weeks but they are not elite. Would love 1 more starter level guy so would the rest of the league.

DL: A++. Enough said there.
LB: Very solid. Can struggle with power runners but has speed and is building depth enough to overcome LVE neck woes.
S: Mid. Been a step back season at Safety. Dono was injured and slow out of gate. Kearse was pressing trying to make miracles happen. Lots of talent here but needs to meet last year's form.
CB: Was a top 5 group with Diggs but loses a lot in his absence. Bland is capable but also beatable when playing top outside WR. Lewis is tough but he doesn't need to cover long routes. Gilmore is a savvy vet that is making plays.

ST: Turpin has to catch the ball. Kicker has been nails. Solid overall group.

Schedule: Dallas December sched looks very nasty. Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Lions is tough sledding.
But outside that stretch the games are pretty winnable. The 6 games prior to December are Rams, Eagles, Giants, Panthers, Commodes, Seahawks.
Definitely should be in good shape for a playoff spot entering that nasty December stretch.

With two weeks to go until the trade deadline and some glaring weaknesses it would be ideal to add some talent during the BYE. Send the message we are all in and plug some holes. McCarthy's offense really requires better TE and RB play than what are getting. When those positions fell off in GB they struggled even with ARod at the helm.

If the present Middle East status actually boils down to Iran...that will be as the schedule of Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, and Lions. Both just don't allow for the alternative to lose!

Want to truly be competitive? Just as the necessity for Air Dominance...the running game needs a strong runner added. Not just someone as a fill in. The Cowboys need this to win.

 

[Bagman]

As I sit here on Thursday, I still don't know why Dallas hasn't made a trade (or two) to upgrade the offense. It would be nice to get an influx of talent AND two weeks to get them up to speed for the Rams game. They need help at RB, TE and a power blocking OLineman. They aren't winning squat with the current group. Especially the RBs.

 

[CCBoy]

As I sit here on Thursday, I still don't know why Dallas hasn't made a trade (or two) to upgrade the offense. It would be nice to get an influx of talent AND two weeks to get them up to speed for the Rams game. They need help at RB, TE and a power blocking OLineman. They aren't winning squat with the current group. Especially the RBs.

On that basis, a partridge in a pear tree was forgotten...

 

[CCBoy]

Dallas spent the off-season finally pushing the chips to the middle.
They added Gilmore and Cooks to bolster a playoff team.

As we sit entering week 7 and the team's Bye, they are basically where they were last year.
Outside of the elites but in the next tier.

SF, KC, Buff and MIA look like elites to me. Those teams are all +59 points or better on the season. So basically, averaging a 10-point win.

PHI, DET, DAL, BALT, JAX all look like a clear next tier. Flaws but still enough talent to win most weeks. JAX is only +20 so a bit shaky on this tier but 3 straight wins and a W over Buffalo gets them the nod.
DAL is pretty firmly in this tier.

Coaching: Dan Quinn is once again tossing gems as DC. Arizona and SF found ways to challenge this defense, but injuries mid-week mentally shook the team versus ARI and SF is simply more talented when they are fully healthy.
Offensively, it has been Back to the Future. Stale scheme seems a bit of an issue versus quality opponents. WRs aren't readily open and the run blocking scheme is very dated. The offense can really use this BYE week to tweak things.
Since CeeDee can win on most routes this team should have Cooks in motion A LOT.
Run fits have to improve to the point where we aren't just giving away first downs with runs of 2 yards or less.

Groups:
QB: Dak has been fine all but the YOLO stuff after down 21 at SF was full on Monty Python. He doesn't look settled in this new offense, but he's played well enough to have Dallas on that 2nd tier and his last game was easily his best of the season. He needs to protect himself and find a few more answers in this scheme that don't require getting hit to make a play.
RB: TP is a quality back and has both blocked and caught it at elite levels. The running has just dipped down as he takes more snaps and wear.
Dowdle runs hard but occasionally looks lost. Dowdle and Vaughn each grade massively into negatives for pass pro by PFF. Could use a quality vet RB IMO. Yes, I'd be fine with trade for Zeke on his current contract. But no he isn't the best talent available. Connor or Henry would be ideal if contract and compensation can be settled.
WR: Closer to league average than anyone would have expected. Cooks was banged up early and been slow to get going. Gallup is no longer a deep threat and he isn't making tough catches. WR1, WR2, WR3 and WR4 are pretty clearly set in their roles and not outplaying those standards yet. Some help from the offense could change that.
TE: Ferguson is a good player, but Dallas has nothing behind him, and he gets pounded. Bottom 10 group easily and perhaps bottom 5. Really need Schoon to step up from awful to below average. Anyone with a pulse would help here. Wonder how mad Ertz is at Philly?
OL; Getting healthier finally but there is some age and the OC is playing hurt. Group is battling and doing fine most weeks but they are not elite. Would love 1 more starter level guy so would the rest of the league.

DL: A++. Enough said there.
LB: Very solid. Can struggle with power runners but has speed and is building depth enough to overcome LVE neck woes.
S: Mid. Been a step back season at Safety. Dono was injured and slow out of gate. Kearse was pressing trying to make miracles happen. Lots of talent here but needs to meet last year's form.
CB: Was a top 5 group with Diggs but loses a lot in his absence. Bland is capable but also beatable when playing top outside WR. Lewis is tough but he doesn't need to cover long routes. Gilmore is a savvy vet that is making plays.

ST: Turpin has to catch the ball. Kicker has been nails. Solid overall group.

Schedule: Dallas December sched looks very nasty. Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Lions is tough sledding.
But outside that stretch the games are pretty winnable. The 6 games prior to December are Rams, Eagles, Giants, Panthers, Commodes, Seahawks.
Definitely should be in good shape for a playoff spot entering that nasty December stretch.

With two weeks to go until the trade deadline and some glaring weaknesses it would be ideal to add some talent during the BYE. Send the message we are all in and plug some holes. McCarthy's offense really requires better TE and RB play than what are getting. When those positions fell off in GB they struggled even with ARod at the helm.

The Cowboys need a strong running back addition...

Sometimes blunt is best, and in regard to the Cowboys’ running game, blunt is also a little mean. Dallas’ success rate on the ground was just 29 percent on the night. In other words, 71% of the time they were in worse shape after the run, than they were before the run.

All three of the Cowboys’ RBs logged negative EPAs (expected points added) and only nontraditional rushers like Dak Prescott and Brandin Cooks scored a positive EPA on the ground.

The only circumstances in which Dallas logged positive rushing scores were late-down attempts. On those three rushing attempts, the Cowboys averaged 0.02 EPA/play with a 66.7% success rate.

The Cowboys were at their worst in the red zone. They rushed four times against an average of 8.25 men in the box. They were only successful one time and averaged -0.49 EPA/play.

The Cowboys have consistently struggled running into heavy boxes and in the red zone. Unless they change something here, red zone rushing attempts will be wasted plays more often than not.

https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/lists/cowboys-what-we-learned-week-6-chargers/

 

[America's Cowboy]

Not trying to defend or make excuses. But he did miss training camp and preseason.

Not sure how you can say he is awful. Blocking is fine. Just 6 targets in 6 games as the entire offense has sputtered to start this season.

I mean, what can he do? Every WR, TE and RB has suffered in this offense.

WRs have struggled to get open so far. Same for the TEs. RBs are simply not getting any holes opened up for them by this Oline.

 

[CCBoy]

WRs have struggled to get open so far. Same for the TEs. RBs are simply not getting any holes opened up for them by this Oline.

Running on first downs and getting their 2 yards just puts them farther behind to make first downs.

As to passing, they haven't yet used the entire field to throw at during games.

This still leaves the question open on play selections or execution inconsistencies.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Running on first downs and getting their 2 yards just puts them farther behind to make first downs.

As to passing, they haven't yet used the entire field to throw at during games.

This still leaves the question open on play selections or execution inconsistencies.

100% agreed. Cowboys should be passing more than running. Use the pass to open up the run. The issue, besides playcalling, is this Oline's inability to get the running game going while struggling to protect Dak consistently via the pass.

 

[LysleE]

Dallas’ offense is in a state of flux; OL is unable to run or pass block consistently; MM is not stretching the field or stressing defenses…the mantra at the beginning of the season was that the Dallas offense was going to make “defenses defend the entire field”..:that has yet to happen. Running game has been unable to get on-track and WRs are unable to consistently win 1 v 1 match-ups. Red zone offense still problematic. It is disheartening to see other offenses using motion to create mis-matches to exploit, while Cowboys expects WRs and TEs to beat their defenders.

Defense is still not able to stop the run consistently; poor gap discipline as defenders are playing pass first. How many times have we seen a DL stunt open up a lane for a RB? The secondary is also struggling to replace Diggs and is having difficulty containing opponents’ offensive playmakers in the passing game. His absence also weakens the run defense.

Still having issues with penalties and poor OL depth; both of which apparently were not addressed adequately during the off-season.

Tough games upcoming with Rams, Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Lions and Seahawks. I think the Commodores could play a spoiler role in determining Dallas’ chances to win a playoff spot…also hoping the Arizona loss ends up not impacting Cowboys’ playoff chances.

Given their consistently inconsistent play, I think it’s difficult to definitively state one way or another the Cowboys chances of making the playoffs.

 

[jterrell]

Thanks to all for the thread interactions.
All are very real football topics.

I fell a bit behind yesterday so will try to just sum up a group of takes.

Tiers: Any ranking is debatable. And all the points made have been very fair. My Buffalo versus Dallas take would be that Buff beat the SB fave (MIA) by a lot while Dallas lost in that match up to SF by a lot.
I discount Buff losing on the road in London to a Jags team that is essentially home there and had been for a week prior.
I also discount Dallas losing to Arizona when they had serious injuries mid-week that freaked out everyone and crushed the mood.
But I do concede these are very similar teams. And Buff lost to the Jets while Dallas dog walked them.

Offensively, Dallas can spread the field but it will take better blocking and better RB/TE play to do so.
As is, they are better off max protecting and letting CeeDee/Cooks win eventually.
They definitely need to add some motion to get guys free releases. I'd move Cooks, Turpin, TP and Ferguson a few times each game and especially in the Red Zone.

Dallas defense has been solid versus the run after being abysmal much of last year. We actually run it more yards than we allow and we cannot run it well really at all.
With all the speed on this defense I don't ever expect it to be some aces run stuff unit but the additional of Maxi has been low key impactful. We are good in short yardage and overall.
We are not good versus the SF run but that is an insanely good unit for SF that backs up if CMC is out.
I am rather hopeful they run CMC into the ground before the playoffs as they were doing versus us.

With so much season left a lot can happen.
Dallas needs to recognize they have to improve in many areas but they should also take heart in that they could be as good as anyone and have been dominant some weeks.
In a buyer/seller market Dallas should be buying and going for it.

 

[J-man]

Honestly, it depends on one thing, and that is moving dak out of the pocket as often as possible. If we do that, we have a shot at maybe 11 wins or better.
As far as the Chargers go, I'm not really discounting the win as much as I am discounting Herbert's performance. My son's a charger's fan. I've seen every charger's game for 20 years. I know Herbert like my back pocket. Hes off something's wrong, I don't know what. But regardless, it was a good defensive effort by Quinn and company.

Kellen Moore's offense