State of the Cowboys: epic implosion edition

[zeke21]

I don't see Dak as a top 5 QB even pre-snap. He's nowhere near Lamar, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow. I would also argue Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud, and Stafford sit on that line (5-7). He sits in the conversation of Goff, Tua, Purdy, Hurts, Cousins. Dak is definitely 6 to 10. He needs to play better in big moments to get in the top 5. He also needs more help than the top 5 to get you to the top. He's still better than the QB's on 22 other teams, but he has flaws that requires him to be helped out in order to succeed.

I posted a similar list in another thread. I think some of the issue with dak is the constant overvaluing. He is not a top 5 QB.. yes his stats are 100% top 5.. but that is not the full story. you have to account for strength of schedule, strength of team around him etc etc.

I've always maintained that you should judge a position based on the 'school yard wall' concept. If you have all 32 QBs lined up on a wall.. and healthy.. and free.. then who do you pick first, second, third etc.

I want Dak gone, I've always wanted Dak gone.. personally I don't rate him but even then I have no problem saying he is in that top 8-12 band of QBs. The problem being that he is paid like a top 5 and treated like a top 5. Also that he has remained in that band even as his career has progressed. So even when we lost some guys that were ahead of him at the start of his career (Brady, Roeths, Flacco et al) Dak didn't move up.. instead he got passed by younger guys like Purdy, Love, Stroud, Burrow etc.

I also think Stafford gets chronically undervalued. And I included Rodgers in my list because he was playing at an MVP level the last time he suited up.. we still have no idea if he can come back and have a 2-3 year cameo like Brady did.

With that in mind.. I would easily put Stafford and Rodgers ahead of Dak. I also think it is a disservice to Purdy.. I realise he seems more like a systems QB and that may be true but he beat out some highly favoured guys and has barely put a foot wrong.

100% Dak is in that group with Tue, Goff, Cousins, Hurts.. and I'd include guys like Herbert and Watson in that as well.

Ultimately Dak is that above average, middle tier guy. Good enough to win, good enough to get the job done in the regular season but hasn't got enough to get higher than that. Unless you strike lightning in a bottle, nick foles style, then it is not going to be enough to win championships. We really need to move off Dak asap.

 

[JustChip]

I posted a similar list in another thread. I think some of the issue with dak is the constant overvaluing. He is not a top 5 QB.. yes his stats are 100% top 5.. but that is not the full story. you have to account for strength of schedule, strength of team around him etc etc.

I've always maintained that you should judge a position based on the 'school yard wall' concept. If you have all 32 QBs lined up on a wall.. and healthy.. and free.. then who do you pick first, second, third etc.

I want Dak gone, I've always wanted Dak gone.. personally I don't rate him but even then I have no problem saying he is in that top 8-12 band of QBs. The problem being that he is paid like a top 5 and treated like a top 5. Also that he has remained in that band even as his career has progressed. So even when we lost some guys that were ahead of him at the start of his career (Brady, Roeths, Flacco et al) Dak didn't move up.. instead he got passed by younger guys like Purdy, Love, Stroud, Burrow etc.

I also think Stafford gets chronically undervalued. And I included Rodgers in my list because he was playing at an MVP level the last time he suited up.. we still have no idea if he can come back and have a 2-3 year cameo like Brady did.

With that in mind.. I would easily put Stafford and Rodgers ahead of Dak. I also think it is a disservice to Purdy.. I realise he seems more like a systems QB and that may be true but he beat out some highly favoured guys and has barely put a foot wrong.

100% Dak is in that group with Tue, Goff, Cousins, Hurts.. and I'd include guys like Herbert and Watson in that as well.

Ultimately Dak is that above average, middle tier guy. Good enough to win, good enough to get the job done in the regular season but hasn't got enough to get higher than that. Unless you strike lightning in a bottle, nick foles style, then it is not going to be enough to win championships. We really need to move off Dak asap.

Good analysis. Personally, I would put Dak in the Andy Dalton realm. Not the Dalton at the end of his Bengal term, but prime Dalton.

 

[zeke21]

Good analysis. Personally, I would put Dak in the Andy Dalton realm. Not the Dalton at the end of his Bengal term, but prime Dalton.

I've used that comparison before and I think it is a good one. Good, solid QBs but ultimately not enough to convert in big moments.

I think that Dak has had slightly better teams than prime Dalton and I also never rated Lewis as a coach.

But if you look at the playoff 'tape' as it were.. they are like for like. Dalton had some truly great regular season stats (he was up there with Brady in MVP conversations twice) but failed epically in playoffs including the turnovers and poor decisions.

I think the Dalton story is a prime example of why you move on from Dak. Once a loser, always a loser. It is not just losing a playoff game.. that happens.. they are hard to win. it is the manner in which you lose and how you performed within that loss. Dalton suffered for it and Dak should too. Interesting that Dalton got 9 years and then he got dropped so they could go and get Burrows.

Perhaps we can get lucky and have the same happen. It is likely Dak's career follows the same path too.. bouncing around as a backup on single season deals. I had hope that maybe we could still trade for Dak but from reading the coverage around the league.. I don't think we are fooling anyone. Dak has been found out.

 

[JustChip]

I've used that comparison before and I think it is a good one. Good, solid QBs but ultimately not enough to convert in big moments.

I think that Dak has had slightly better teams than prime Dalton and I also never rated Lewis as a coach.

But if you look at the playoff 'tape' as it were.. they are like for like. Dalton had some truly great regular season stats (he was up there with Brady in MVP conversations twice) but failed epically in playoffs including the turnovers and poor decisions.

I think the Dalton story is a prime example of why you move on from Dak. Once a loser, always a loser. It is not just losing a playoff game.. that happens.. they are hard to win. it is the manner in which you lose and how you performed within that loss. Dalton suffered for it and Dak should too. Interesting that Dalton got 9 years and then he got dropped so they could go and get Burrows.

Perhaps we can get lucky and have the same happen. It is likely Dak's career follows the same path too.. bouncing around as a backup on single season deals. I had hope that maybe we could still trade for Dak but from reading the coverage around the league.. I don't think we are fooling anyone. Dak has been found out.

The problem I see is the financial commitment the Cowboys have with Dak. I’m not a capoligist, but the general consensus is that it’s untenable to have him play out his contract next year. Otherwise, you do that and take the year to evaluate Trey Lance and let Dak walk.

 

[IrishAnto]

Wow!!!

My original post that started this conversation between you and I was simply providing an alternate reason for why Jerry maintained the status quo. Specifically, that he is more afraid of taking a risk that may result in 3 consecutive 5-11 seasons than the possibility of it resulting in success.

There’s nothing wrong with that. It’s even understandable.

Your responses, culminating with this ridiculous diatribe, wreak of defensiveness. I’ve long suspected Cowboys employees have CZ accounts just to stay aware of fan’s perceptions. But your responses go way beyond what an employee would do, but not an family member.

Is that you, Jerry, Jr.? Or John Stephen? What’s next? My daddy can beat up your daddy?

You obviously have not seen any of my posts over the years. I’m a realistic fan. I don’t pine for the good ole days. I’m definitely not in the canonize Jimmy camp.

I don’t expect Super Bowls every year and anything less is failure. I don’t even feel that way about the playoffs. Football is entertainment and that’s my expectation.

I’m a season ticket holder since 1989 and invested money, time and personal safety to go to that game. An indifferent, unprepared team is not entertaining and not acceptable, period.

Holding nobody of significance accountable by maintaining the status quo is the antithesis of showing appreciation to your paying customers. You can tell that to Jerry.

I don't know why you bother auguring with the idiot.

He can’t even construct a coherent sentence.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Plusses?
You do have a QB.

 

[jterrell]

Rough times for cowboys and Chelsea supporters

Chelsea is actually in pretty good stead.
Sure they are 9th in the table but with a bunch of 20-year-olds they have under contract for 3-4 more years.
And 1 win off 6th with a couple tourneys in play.

Can be maddening to watch but that is life with 20-year-olds.
Dallas has to re-build to even get to the young and growing stage.
Much tougher task in Dallas where you have the vet All Pros but need about 2 draft classes of young cheap guys that can all really play.

 

[jterrell]

It goes something like "blah blah, blah, ba blah... not Dak's fault... MVP... the refs fault...look at me...words".

thanks for the thread bump and reading it all the way through!!

 

[TequilaCowboy]

too long, can somebody post the cliff notes?

Yeah, LOL....my ADD just didn't make it past the first several lines and drifted into what the hell is for breakfast?

But i take it another view of everything that needs to be done IF only Jerry relinquished total control and the crap coaches he has hired.

 

[zeke21]

The problem I see is the financial commitment the Cowboys have with Dak. I’m not a capoligist, but the general consensus is that it’s untenable to have him play out his contract next year. Otherwise, you do that and take the year to evaluate Trey Lance and let Dak walk.

Well he is due 60M or 20% of the cap next year. The current deal was never written with the intent not to extend him. It was a bad contract then and it is proving worse now.

It really is now an actual decision that needs to be made. Dak will not make a team friendly deal.. he showed that last time around. So Dak is going to be put his hand out and want market setting rates. If we put him on another big contract.. he fails again and then Jerry is in an even worse position than he is now. Even Jerry has to have some doubt at this point.

If we don't cut him.. then it is a lot of salary for a guy not performing. If we cut him post June 1st then we save around 30M in the cap. That could be the difference between keeping 2-3 guys like Parsons, CeeDee, Smith et al. 30 M of cap savings isn't even to make a big move in FA.. but it is enough coin to keep some solid depth.

So.. I really think they think they are in a tough spot... for mine it is not tough because I'm clear that Dak isn't the guy.. but for JJ and MM I think they still have hope Dak is the guy.. so that is the difficulty.

 

[jterrell]

The problem I see is the financial commitment the Cowboys have with Dak. I’m not a capoligist, but the general consensus is that it’s untenable to have him play out his contract next year. Otherwise, you do that and take the year to evaluate Trey Lance and let Dak walk.

When you commit to a franchise QB you are partnering with them. It is what it is.
And this QB is likely to finish 3rd in MVP voting.

To come off a vet franchise QB future cap hits you have to have a cheap QB solution like Brock Purdy or Jalen Hurts.
And they only stay cheap for a short time.
You win with them, build their resume, then have to pay them as talent around them dissolves and it gets ugly, see Philly.

Jerry obviously doesn't want the final season of football he ever sees be a 4-13 effort.
Because of this you probably have to now make the offense Dak-friendly. I.E. build the running game and work play action.

 

[jterrell]

Well he is due 60M or 20% of the cap next year. The current deal was never written with the intent not to extend him. It was a bad contract then and it is proving worse now.

It really is now an actual decision that needs to be made. Dak will not make a team friendly deal.. he showed that last time around. So Dak is going to be put his hand out and want market setting rates. If we put him on another big contract.. he fails again and then Jerry is in an even worse position than he is now. Even Jerry has to have some doubt at this point.

If we don't cut him.. then it is a lot of salary for a guy not performing. If we cut him post June 1st then we save around 30M in the cap. That could be the difference between keeping 2-3 guys like Parsons, CeeDee, Smith et al. 30 M of cap savings isn't even to make a big move in FA.. but it is enough coin to keep some solid depth.

So.. I really think they think they are in a tough spot... for mine it is not tough because I'm clear that Dak isn't the guy.. but for JJ and MM I think they still have hope Dak is the guy.. so that is the difficulty.

You do not save 30M; you just defer 29M to the following season where you'd eat 36M. You are also not paying him 5M on 3/17 just to cut him post June 1st.
It is a bad, bad spot because you need him to work with you now.
By far the best option is a restructure he has to sign off on.

The other option is pay him to play elsewhere while you try to figure it out with Rush and Lance.

Dallas has been in this spot before and the reluctance to pay him until last minute yet refusing to move on got them here.
If you are going to keep him anyway you should have been way ahead of the deals.

Pre-paying Jaylon Smith and Zeke (yes Zeke forced their hand) while slow paying Dak is pretty insane cap mgmt.

 

[khiladi]

Me looking for that QB this poster claims we have in Dallas..

 

[VaqueroTD]

Dallas Cowboys fans are as big a part of the problem with this organization as the Owner is.

So let's start there with mass anger and blame all around.
Dallas is not entitled to Super Bowls and a SB is not the standard anywhere, but especially not here.
But ole Jerry cannot shut up about Super Bowls.
He and the fans live in a shared delusion. Both need an intervention and therapy.
What part of winning 1 playoff game every couple years spells super bowl?

But Dallas fans ARE entitled to believe you SHOULD win games when favored by 7+ points.
Dallas fans are entitled to a DC that creates a game plan instead of setting up FOUR interviews the week of a playoff game.
Quinn spent more time with his agent than his team.
So being mad? Absolutely deserved.

This was an epic meltdown.
Offense, defense and special teams all played as poorly as they had all year.
The defense was so shockingly bad it is hard to believe that it actually occurred and wasn't just some Eagles fans' fever dream.

Dak's first INT was a ref consistency nightmare. No idea how you give the Packers a first down to keep the drive alive on the first series on a holding call then allow that mugging to be an INT. But that 2nd one was Dak's kryptonite. The off-schedule play by a secondary defender. Dak expected something and didn't check with his eyes. Awful INT. Probably his worst of the entire season.
But no team can put a QB in that situation. Down 7-0 before he ever gets the ball. Backed up because ST is trash all night so you keep starting inside your 20. Fair catching at the 6, taking holding penalties inside the 20? Team never got to run regular offense in the first quarter.

The defense was just bad on a level that is hard to describe. Could not stop the run at all yet couldn't stay within 10 yards of receivers too?? HOW?!?!
Entire scheme is based on pressure but they could run double moves and complete 30 yards passes all night??!!??! That was expansion team level defense. Looked like Texas Tech defense with Mahomes at QB. Score 60 or lose.

So where does it go from here??
You did push a lot of chips to the center of the table this year.
The draft will be light on bodies and the salary cap is tight.
But this team has way too much talent to tank.

Jerry made the MM decision as I expected he would. He didn't have a better candidate already lined up so MM returns.
DQ will get a HC job in all likelihood so Dallas can part ways and very quietly point to his former assts all beating him to absolute death as reasons to believe the team will be better.
MM has to be better with time mgmt. Dak is a top 5 QB pre-snap but that also means he is focused so heavily on schematic stuff he fails to pay any attention to the clock. So the coach has to. Both guys pretending they are too important to fill that role gets us here.
Dak is still a top 6-9 QB. Nothing changes there. He was a legit MVP candidate for a reason and he fell short again for a reason. Correct what you can but live within that reality as well. You aren't making Dak a clone of Tom Brady.
BUT you do have a guy 20+ teams would kill for.

Plusses?
You do have a QB.
You have a lead pass rusher.
You have a lead WR.
You have an elite young TE.
You play in the NFC East where every other team is arguably set up worse going forward because they lack a QB.
Will McClay loves it here.

Negatives?
Basically everything else.
You have 2 Pro Bowl OL that are aging out.
The QB is on the Jeff Bezos salary plan.
The owner and fans EXPECT you to win a Super Bowl next year.
You have 18 cents in salary cap money.
You have no middle of the draft.
CeeDee and Micah want to be the highest paid at their positions even though they have fizzled in the playoffs right along with the 40M QB.

As the kids say: I hate it here.

Can it be fixed? Yes. The NFL is a parity league where almost anything is possible.
And Dallas has a young, deep team.
Flawed and requiring re-work but still young and deep.

Dallas might need to move a big name or two.
Maybe you get Dan Quinn to overpay for Micah.
Painful to do but would free up 25-30M in future cap concerns and bring back a draft saving haul of picks.
Or maybe you trade CeeDee? Again cap plus draft haul for an all-world talent?
Move Dak? That one is a lot tougher because he already costs the money. And replacement level talent is nearly impossible to find.
But you should consider everything. Unless Dak will play team friendly now after making 200M then you might have to suck it up and eat the soup sandwich to move him.

Nothing should be off the table.
Band-aids won't fix the culture.

We're only halfway through the implosion.

The more I see on these forums, the more I think Jerry is going to regret not shaking it up with a new Coach.

Already have players family posting on social media who they like and don't like.

Talking about GB disrespecting our cheerleaders and calling us frontrunning punks.

Fans are one step away from bringing in paper bag heads to the stadium. With a 12-5 record!

Based on the vibe we are seeing from the team right now, I don't think they could weather any storm next year without having a Philly-esque implosion.

Mike and Nick need to compare notes and figure out how to fix their sinking ships.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

Me looking for that QB this poster claims we have in Dallas..

He only comes out at home usually vs teams under .500 and the defense gifts him at least 2-3 T/O and a quick lead.
Against teams over .500 look in the forest for the Deer whos about to get run over by a car....or truck.

 

[zeke21]

You do not save 30M; you just defer 29M to the following season where you'd eat 36M. You are also not paying him 5M on 3/17 just to cut him post June 1st.
It is a bad, bad spot because you need him to work with you now.
By far the best option is a restructure he has to sign off on.

The other option is pay him to play elsewhere while you try to figure it out with Rush and Lance.

Dallas has been in this spot before and the reluctance to pay him until last minute yet refusing to move on got them here.
If you are going to keep him anyway you should have been way ahead of the deals.

Pre-paying Jaylon Smith and Zeke (yes Zeke forced their hand) while slow paying Dak is pretty insane cap mgmt.

Yep.. I loved Zeke but he got his deal. To be fair.. I think RBs have a short shelf life and he knew he only had one shot at the money. I also heard rumours at the time that he was aware of what they had done to Murray just two years prior and that was a factor in the hold out. The Zeke deal was a bad deal for the team.

I think we can all agree there are no easy options from here..

 

[jterrell]

I am probably echoing here. We are not entitled to a Super Bowl but it should be the goal. In the long run no one cares if you win 3 straight 12-5 seasons. Just think of the late Marty Shottenheimer and the fact that he can't get into the Hall of Fame. You have to win the post season and not fizzle out. If you get into the playoffs with a 2nd seed, a home field advantage, and being favored by 7.5 points. You should play hard and win that game and not get blown out. This team has historically played too small in big moments and at times play down to lesser opponents. That's not good at all.


I thought that was a legit INT. Refs always allow more leniency in the playoffs, and overall I didn't see much that would have changed that first INT. But overall the refs have been historically bad this year. I still don't understand why the NFL who makes billions of dollars, won't shave off a few million to keep full time refs and work on them being sharp. Will it totally fix the problem? No. But it should help from some of the crazy bad calls in a lot of games this year.


Did Jalen Hurts automatically get bad because he had one bad year in an offensive scheme in Philly that didn't help him or the whole team? Also don't sleep on Washington with that number 2 pick. We keep thinking they are still in Dan Snyder land, but the reality is they have an new owner who wants to win and has sports franchise experience and have been with winning franchises. They have some good pieces there. If they get the coaching and QB solid in the offseason they could be next years Texans.


I don't see Dak as a top 5 QB even pre-snap. He's nowhere near Lamar, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow. I would also argue Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud, and Stafford sit on that line (5-7). He sits in the conversation of Goff, Tua, Purdy, Hurts, Cousins. Dak is definitely 6 to 10. He needs to play better in big moments to get in the top 5. He also needs more help than the top 5 to get you to the top. He's still better than the QB's on 22 other teams, but he has flaws that requires him to be helped out in order to succeed.


While I agree with you, I just don't know how much culture change you will get out of McCarthy when he's used to doing it a certain way for over 16 years. IOW, I don't see McCarthy going hard core in one season if he has never done it that way before and I don't know if the players will respond to it. But you're stuck with him for one more year, so they better go all in. I think CeeDee and Micah are both in their last year. Extending them and pushing money forward will help them against the cap since they will both cost 23 million against the cap. One of them could also be traded for picks. KC would jump on CeeDee with their lack of WR depth and no clear #1. Either way, there will be big changes since as of today Dallas is 14 million over the cap and Dak is expected to make 59million. He's not worth that and you have OL issues to deal with. But they may have to eat it so they have flexibility in the future.

It's going to be messy but I agree nothing should be off the table. I just have a gut feeling next year may not go the way the Joneses or fair weather fans think it will go. Historically it never does.

This was an A+ response so thanks for that.
Can't disagree with you much here but wanted to at least acknowledge it.

Dallas can both crap the bed and also have done so because of insane, unwarranted external pressure to win a Super Bowl.
Fans will never take any responsibility for anything, but they should.
This team doesn't need to worry about more Hall of Fame spots. Just play week to week to win games and beat the teams you should.

Mina says Dak is the top pre-snap QB in the league right now and that is probably close to accurate, thus I said top 5. But that is also a weakness as he can't handle when teams defy his pre-snap reads. Peyton Manning had that in his game for a decade. He'd run the league ragged all year then hit a DC like Belichick who confused him and he'd die on the vine in a stinker. Sound familiar?

Culture is tough because the fans are a big part of it. They engage about making the Super Bowl come week 8. I mean get real.

The Cowboys goal for 20+ years under Tom Landry was to win the division.
Under Parcells it was just "make the tourney".
No idea how under Jerry it is Super Bowl or bust baby and the fans are WILLINGLY along for that ride.

If I go to a casino and play to either 10X my money or bust I am going to leave miserable 95% of the time.
If I am content winning enough to cover a high-end dinner then I'll have about 50/50 odds of being miserable or happy.
I can only remain sane in the 2nd scenario.

 

[Aven8]

Dak was awful, but the fans are not calling out this defense enough. It was one of the worst efforts I’ve ever seen on a professional football field.

 

[JustChip]

When you commit to a franchise QB you are partnering with them. It is what it is.
And this QB is likely to finish 3rd in MVP voting.

To come off a vet franchise QB future cap hits you have to have a cheap QB solution like Brock Purdy or Jalen Hurts.
And they only stay cheap for a short time.
You win with them, build their resume, then have to pay them as talent around them dissolves and it gets ugly, see Philly.

Jerry obviously doesn't want the final season of football he ever sees be a 4-13 effort.
Because of this you probably have to now make the offense Dak-friendly. I.E. build the running game and work play action.

The other alternative is follow the college model. Draft one every year, or every other year at worst, and not lock yourself into a boat anchor of a contract. Use the resources saved to build a better overall team.

 

[CCBoy]

Wow!!!

My original post that started this conversation between you and I was simply providing an alternate reason for why Jerry maintained the status quo. Specifically, that he is more afraid of taking a risk that may result in 3 consecutive 5-11 seasons than the possibility of it resulting in success.

There’s nothing wrong with that. It’s even understandable.

Your responses, culminating with this ridiculous diatribe, wreak of defensiveness. I’ve long suspected Cowboys employees have CZ accounts just to stay aware of fan’s perceptions. But your responses go way beyond what an employee would do, but not an family member.

Is that you, Jerry, Jr.? Or John Stephen? What’s next? My daddy can beat up your daddy?

You obviously have not seen any of my posts over the years. I’m a realistic fan. I don’t pine for the good ole days. I’m definitely not in the canonize Jimmy camp.

I don’t expect Super Bowls every year and anything less is failure. I don’t even feel that way about the playoffs. Football is entertainment and that’s my expectation.

I’m a season ticket holder since 1989 and invested money, time and personal safety to go to that game. An indifferent, unprepared team is not entertaining and not acceptable, period.

Holding nobody of significance accountable by maintaining the status quo is the antithesis of showing appreciation to your paying customers. You can tell that to Jerry.

No, you picked it up so it belongs to you. You picked NO concept or their discussion. As stated, your only real participation was to a not present anything beyond not being remotely a cause here and now. You discuss nothing but a concept to solely support an all failure view for a positive set of real alternatives to still arrive at success.

Don't accept for minute insult on discussion present or it's value on material or myself.



Here is your preferred Cliff Notes:

You arise no where more than an insultive antagonist.