Stephen on the draft board and 1st round prospects

MonsterD said:
Ok so don't bother being prepared and ready to make trades before the draft, just wheel and deal off the cuff when you are on the clock. Gotta love that from Jerry and Stephen.
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This is all teams. And yes, most trades, nearly all, happen when a team is on the clock. As they see how the draft picks go off the board.

It is not just Jerry and Stephen.
 
MonsterD said:
Ok so don't bother being prepared and ready to make trades before the draft, just wheel and deal off the cuff when you are on the clock. Gotta love that from Jerry and Stephen.
Click to expand...
To be fair, this is common for teams.

While some of it is strategic, most of it is not knowing the options beforehand so there is no true way to justify or place valuations on trades.

Stephen is right about draft day trade being more in the moment .. while I criticize the Jones family quite often, he's not wrong.

For example, let's say there's a player a team at #18 really wants that they expect to go in the top #10, then suddenly that player is there at #12 .. that team will be heavily incentivized to trade for that #12 pick because they can rationalize it as "it will cost us #12 compensation for a player we considered top ten compensation to get".

What most teams do in the first round is break down players into ranges. Then they factor that into their pick slot.

If the 6th guy on their board is the only one left at #12 and a team calls them and offers them a #1 (#18 for example) this year and a #1 (or pick package of picks) next year, it's an easier decision to make.

On the otherhand, if at pick #12 their 1st or 2nd guy is still available, now only a well overpaid offer would justify trading the pick.

Those are not things you can plan for before the draft with pre-draft trades.

You just have to be ready and have a plan in place that allows you to make quick decisions because you may only have a couple of minutes to decide before the offering team finds another option they agree with.
 
It’s always comical when for instance you say a JRod or CJ Allen at 20, but then everyone scoffs at it saying that’s too high! When in reality all the picks after the first 15 or so are 2nd round grades and later.
 
Reality said:
To be fair, this is common for teams.

While some of it is strategic, most of it is not knowing the options beforehand so there is no true way to justify or place valuations on trades.

Stephen is right about draft day trade being more in the moment .. while I criticize the Jones family quite often, he's not wrong.

For example, let's say there's a player a team at #18 really wants that they expect to go in the top #10, then suddenly that player is there at #12 .. that team will be heavily incentivized to trade for that #12 pick because they can rationalize it as "it will cost us #12 compensation for a player we considered top ten compensation to get".

What most teams do in the first round is break down players into ranges. Then they factor that into their pick slot.

If the 6th guy on their board is the only left at #12 and a team calls them and offers them a #1 (#18 for example) this year and a #1 (or pick package0 next year, it's an easier decision to make.

On the otherhand, if at pick #12 their 1st or 2nd guy is still available, now only a well overpaid offer would justify trading the pick.

Those are not things you can plan for before the draft with pre-draft trades.

You just have to be ready and have a plan in place that allows you to make quick decisions because you may only have a couple of minutes to decide before the offering team finds another option they agree with.
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Being ready and having a plan in place just in case...
Totally confident.
 
Reality said:
while I criticize the Jones family quite often, he's not wrong.
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Yeah, they are easy targets but not everything they say or do is wrong.

Having said that, they should be evaluating possible scenarios before the draft begins & as it progresses so that they are as prepared as possible for any event. If they are doing those things, no need to criticize.
 
Translation. They're aren't as many good players this year so don't expect much when we pick:(

With the 12th pick of the draft, the Cowboys select o_O
 
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McKDaddy said:
Yeah, they are easy targets but not everything they say or do is wrong.

Having said that, they should be evaluating possible scenarios before the draft begins & as it progresses so that they are as prepared as possible for any event. If they are doing those things, no need to criticize.
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They have said before, they go through many mock drafts and scenarios including possible trade opportunities.
 
Aven8 said:
It’s always comical when for instance you say a JRod or CJ Allen at 20, but then everyone scoffs at it saying that’s too high! When in reality all the picks after the first 15 or so are 2nd round grades and later.
Click to expand...

Yup. IMO definitely a draft you just take your guy at 20 and try not to get too cute getting another future pick and miss out on who you want.
 
jazzcat22 said:
They have said before, they go through many mock drafts and scenarios including possible trade opportunities.
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Yeah, I have heard that. Just the cynical side of me (based on their past decisions) allows for the possibility they say one thing & not do it (or do with incompetence).

Thus, I'm always hesitant to give them too strong a vote of confidence!! :laugh:
 
Reality said:
You just have to be ready and have a plan in place that allows you to make quick decisions because you may only have a couple of minutes to decide before the offering team finds another option they agree with.
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That is exactly what I was talking about. The Jones' are well known across the NFL for making rash decisions in self imposed time crunches. They are often taken advantage because of that.

Moreover what I was saying is most teams will practice your scenarios in draft meetings either in mock drafts or practice evaluations for the board, like a word problem test, how do they do things in this set of guidelines etc.

Jerry and Stephen are not disciplined and proactive managers, we all know this from dozens of trades and poor decisions. No one will ever convince me they do what other teams are known to do.

One easy way to be proactive is to call another team before the draft and say we might look to trade up in this range, but we are checking on teams that level, let us know if you don't get your guy and are interested in trading down.

Again I am absolutely convinced that Jerry and Stephen are the worst at evaluating those scenarios "live" and on the clock they wait for other teams to come to them and initiate trade scenarios because they think they hold power over the others in that time crunch.

They underestimate other teams and their GMs and stick to their tried and untrue methodology when interacting on those "business levels" they are wrong, but stubbornly take pride in it.
 
Doesn't surprise me. Heard a bunch of talk the some teams (Dallas was mentioned) that only have 6 to 8 guys as true 1st round grades. If so, then should be interesting on every pick after the 1st. Quite a few have Mauigoa and Fano as true 1st round guys and Proctor moving up fast along with Freeling. Would be a surprised to see 3 OTs in first 10 to me. I see Reese, Bailey, Mauigoa, Fano, Love, Lemon, and Tate as definitely top ten with maybe Delane as one also. We know Mendoza is going 1 but don't see as top 5 in next year's class of QBs.

If teams really value the OT this year and if those needing an OT make moves than possible than 4 OT go top 11 which would make 12 an interesting pick.
 
They don't do so well with contingency plans.
They get lucky actually.

Lamb wasnt thought to be available and fell in their lap.

Then the best defensive player they've drafted since Demarcus Ware wasn't their 1st(Surtain) or 2nd(Horn) option but a whole lot of luck in falling in their lap as well.

Steven acknowledged that publicly.
So blind luck came into play.

I can't speak for anybody else but I don't feel real confident in the Jones duo entertaining what if scenarios on the clock when their 1st and 2nd choices have already been taken.

Guards and Tight Ends seem to come into play too often for my taste, lol
 
MonsterD said:
Ok so don't bother being prepared and ready to make trades before the draft, just wheel and deal off the cuff when you are on the clock. Gotta love that from Jerry and Stephen.
Click to expand...
Theres nothing to say we dont have contingencies in place. I'm with you in wanting a deal done, but theres no benefit to announcing our intentions in advance and prior to seeing who's available.

Dont get me wrong id be happy if we did, just because id know we were getting a stud.
 
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