Stock Market

[Rockport]

Fortunately after the largest single day downturn in American history they are rebounding today.

The day is still young unfortunately.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

There are several points worth reiterating:

The stock market was due some sort of structural adjustment; many economists believed a 10%+ downward move was not only likely, but necessary.

Beyond the 10% adjustment, most of what we are seeing is panic movement. An announced vaccine for the coronavirus and/or some agreement on OPEC output will result in a rather sharp uptick in the market.

Having spent my career in the oil and gas industry, I worry about even a short-term fall in oil prices. The shale oil production which has contributed significantly to the US economy, job growth and production output has a break-even price around $50/bbl is underwater. My experience suggests the oil industry is quick to turn down spending (with a corresponding drop in production), but much slower to rebound when prices move upward sharply.

The reasons for this are understandable: employees leave the industry in bad times and a significant percentage of experienced employees never return; the drilsame oncegoes lingfor the small independent producer. Once rigs are stacked and facilities placed in cold storage, the return to "normal" business is typically slow - classic hysteresis effect.

Bottom line, the market will recovery, some industries faster than others. Ride it out if you can

Yep.

I was cut loose from the industry during the 1986 downturn and never went back.

I know one billionaire/sports team owner that profited mightily during that oil-price collapse...

The majors were leaving the northeast oil play in droves with the result being they were virtually giving away assets (still producing stripper well/water flood fields), undeveloped leases and equipment.

This person got unbelievably sweet deals and when prices started edging up again (as they always do eventually) he was sitting pretty and able to leverage those assets towards even larger plays (like massive amount of shale-play acreage).

The rest is history.

I wish I had been a little older with a little more business savvy at the time to take advantage of a little of that myself.

But make no mistake there are big opportunities in this market across a variety of niches for those with the courage to take advantage of the "don't wanters" and there are going to be many before this is over with.

 

[Diehardblues]

The day is still young unfortunately.

It’s trying to stay in the green today. I’m pleased though and feel it’s a positive sign it’s not continuing to free fall.

 

[YosemiteSam]

Fortunately after the largest single day downturn in American history they are rebounding today.

The rebound has so far shrunk to 150 points. Seems logical to me. I would be in no hurry to buy at this point. Until something real happens, you're standing on a ledge with your cash in hand. You can back away, or you can jump.

 

[morasp]

From a technical standpoint the markets are in bear territory. I read when the market first went down over $3 trillion was lost and it's probably more now. It's going to take some time for this to get sorted out. Buying right now would be like trying to catch a falling knife as they say.

 

[YosemiteSam]

All the markets are cratering, but hey. At least the VIX is up!

 

[DanteEXT]

Has it lost all of yesterday's gains?

 

[YosemiteSam]

Has it lost all of yesterday's gains?

As of right now, yes it has. I believe the opening yesterday (for the DOW anyhow) was right around 23,800 and we are currently at 23,650. (down 1,367.75 for the day)

As @Rockport noted in earlier about the other day. This day isn't quite over yet. So it could go lower or go back above yesterday's low.

 

[Sarek]

Most people expecting big losses tomorrow morning?

 

[GMO415]

The US is economically stable. This is all panic driven. This is tactical moves and not strategic

 

[YosemiteSam]

We are officially in a bear market boys!

 

[DanteEXT]

Not a big following of the stock market but that looks, presently, like a big drop on the Dow.

 

[DFWJC]

Nice opportunity here.
Once SPY tagged 250, we were golden.

Just set up a chart of 5-10 year duration w/ Bollinger bands and a moving average even a large as 50 day
At least at these levels, we are good.

Now if we think this is 2008-2009 market crash, well, we have more room still.

 

[CyberB0b]

The US is economically stable. This is all panic driven. This is tactical moves and not strategic

For now. Lots of companies are too leveraged to make it through even a few months of limited income. American Airlines comes to mind.

 

[shabazz]

If you are retiring this year or even next year it will suck. The market is tanking because of a lack of trust in those things that influence the markets. Panic selling was the first day it went down 4%. The last 2 weeks is not panic selling.

If one is retiring this year or next, they shouldn't be invested in any funds that are subject to volatility. This move should have been made years ago.

Diversifying and strategic investing nearing retirement age is not a last minute move. Those that planned accordingly ahead of retirement wont be affected in the least.

 

[Rockport]

The US is economically stable. This is all panic driven. This is tactical moves and not strategic

The big boys that rule the market don't panic. Those are just arm chair traders. A tiny % of what moves the market. This crash is all about lack of confidence in how the virus is being handled around the world. Just think of all the things that are being cancelled. Jobs are being lost. It's a cascading tidal wave. If countries act quickly and are able to control the spread (some have like China, S. Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong) then this thing can be controlled. But some countries have barely tested as many patients since it started as S. Korea does in 1 day. Therefore, more and more people are walking around spreading the disease.

 

[Rockport]

If one is retiring this year or next, they shouldn't be invested in any funds that are subject to volatility. This move should have been made years ago.

Diversifying and strategic investing nearing retirement age is not a last minute move. Those that planned accordingly ahead of retirement wont be affected in the least.

BS. Have you seen what bonds are doing?

 

[kskboys]

It's almost time to buy.

 

[shabazz]

BS. Have you seen what bonds are doing?

Bonds aren't the only option. Conservative Low risk funds, annuities ( that has never yielded less than 3%), etc.....and is there anyone who is invested in the stock market Not see it going back up

The market will rebound.........as it always has. I just bought 10k worth of light sweet crude at 30.2 per Barrel. (WTI).

I'm not alarmed one bit

 

[Reality]

Usually the people who panic and sell when stocks decline (even severely) are the people who cannot afford to lose their investment rather than the seasoned investors.

Seasoned investors wait out declines and/or take advantage of panic sellers.

People who cannot afford to lose their investment are people who should not be investing in the stock market to begin with.