Sturm: Decoding Linehan - Week 4

[Sturm1310]

I hear the phrase "it has only been ___ weeks" over and over again from the pundits this time of year. Yes, it is early, and yes, early September excellence is no promise of similar results in December. We get it. But, we also know that we can only collect and analyze evidence that exists. And in 2014, we have 4 weeks of material to dissect and sort through. The findings are quite interesting from a Dallas Cowboys standpoint.

As we mentioned yesterday, the Cowboys have run the ball more than anyone (130), they have more yards than anyone (660), which in turn equates to the most yards per game by anyone (165 per).

http://sturminator.blogspot.com/2014/09/decoding-linehan-week-4-new-orleans.html

Thanks!

Bob

 

[onetrickpony]

Always interesting. Thanks, Bob!

 

[LandryFan]

http://sturminator.blogspot.com/2014/09/decoding-linehan-week-4-new-orleans.html

Thanks!

Bob

Thanks so much for the superb analysis! Well done!

 

[Carolina Cowboy]

Great write-up as usual Bob. Said it yesterday to a co-worker - Feeling much the same way and haven't felt that way in a long, long time

 

[Wolfpack]

Great stuff!!

 

[Staubacher]

I like Decoding Linehan much more than Decoding Garrett!

 

[Idgit]

Re: play action...is it really the case that more effective running teams are more effective using play action than less effective ones? I know it seems intuitively that that would be the case, but I've never seen it supported, one way or another. It's not like the LB isn't going to be as aggressive diagnosing a run from a weaker running team than he is a good running team, after all.

Now, I can see how a defense would study tendencies and bet more prepared for play action against one offense than they would another. But that's more a function of play calling than it is rushing effectiveness. Just something I've always been curious about.

Also, Bob, for the 2014 league data in your (great) 10-yard-rushing chart, am I reading that wrong, or should that number be an average number that's a lot lower at this point than the Cowboys' 22 early 10-yard-+ rushes? Because the chart makes us look like we're below average again this year, which is not really the intention...

 

[Doomsday101]

Re: play action...is it really the case that more effective running teams are more effective using play action than less effective ones? I know it seems intuitively that that would be the case, but I've never seen it supported, one way or another. It's not like the LB isn't going to be as aggressive diagnosing a run from a weaker running team than he is a good running team, after all.

Now, I can see how a defense would study tendencies and bet more prepared for play action against one offense than they would another. But that's more a function of play calling than it is rushing effectiveness. Just something I've always been curious about.

Also, Bob, for the 2014 league data in your (great) 10-yard-rushing chart, am I reading that wrong, or should that number be an average number that's a lot lower at this point than the Cowboys' 22 early 10-yard-+ rushes? Because the chart makes us look like we're below average again this year, which is not really the intention...

Let me say on a 3rd and 15 the defense is not buying play action they are coming with ears pinned back to the QB even if it is a hand off they expect to stop the runner before he can pick up the 1st down. That play action is not slowing anyone up. Yet I see many times a QB in that situation will use play action but all it did was give the defense a tick more to get to the QB

 

[Future]

But, we did not mention that the Cowboys are 7th in 1st half runs, 2nd in 1st and 10 runs, and 3rd in overall run percentage with 51%. Yes, their run/pass balance is actually 51/49. There is no way that is sustainable, but who ever thought we would see this for even 4 weeks?

Why is that not sustainable?

Pretty much everyone on our schedule has a poor run defense, and the only two who defend it well - Sea and ARZ - will be close enough games that we aren't just going to air it out. The only teams we'd have to worry about throwing to keep up with are Chicago and Philly, but I'd assume our approach will be to play ball control and keep those offenses off the field, just like the Saints.

Edit: Washington's run defense might not be that terrible, they're giving up just 3.3 YPA, but the Giants killed them on the ground. Everyone other than SEA and ARZ that Dallas will face is giving up more than 4 YPA.

 

[pancakeman]

Also, Bob, for the 2014 league data in your (great) 10-yard-rushing chart, am I reading that wrong, or should that number be an average number that's a lot lower at this point than the Cowboys' 22 early 10-yard-+ rushes? Because the chart makes us look like we're below average again this year, which is not really the intention...

He addresses that in the post--he wanted to show that just a quarter into the season the Cowboys are already almost matching 2012 and over halfway to besting 2011 & '13.

 

[Idgit]

Let me say on a 3rd and 15 the defense is not buying play action they are coming with ears pinned back to the QB even if it is a hand off they expect to stop the runner before he can pick up the 1st down. That play action is not slowing anyone up. Yet I see many times a QB in that situation will use play action but all it did was give the defense a tick more to get to the QB

Yeah. That make sense, too. Obviously the down and distance factor into what the defense expects. But my real question is: does the ability of the team to run the ball effectively factor into how the defense reacts to the play action. Or do they just key off of tendencies and diagnose the play and try to defend it regardless how effecting you are at running it. Ineffective rushing teams are ineffective for a reason. It's because the opposing defense sniffs out what they're doing and stops them. That's less likely to happen if you're not biting on the run when the offense shows run, right?

 

[Doomsday101]

Yeah. That make sense, too. Obviously the down and distance factor into what the defense expects. But my real question is: does the ability of the team to run the ball effectively factor into how the defense reacts to the play action. Or do they just key off of tendencies and diagnose the play and try to defend it regardless how effecting you are at running it. Ineffective rushing teams are ineffective for a reason. It's because the opposing defense sniffs out what they're doing and stops them. That's less likely to happen if you're not biting on the run when the offense shows run, right?

I think it does I think when teams respect the run the tend to bite harder on the play action that is not to say they do not react to a lesser running team but they know poor running teams more times than not will be throwing it and will just go after the QB with an eye on the RB. Do that with this OL and Murray he is going to run over you. I also think as you continue to hammer on DL it slows them up. Run blocking it attacking while pass block the OL is defending you want to take the wind out of a defense pound on them

 

[Idgit]

He addresses that in the post--he wanted to show that just a quarter into the season the Cowboys are already almost matching 2012 and over halfway to besting 2011 & '13.

I get that, but the chart is still performance relative to the rest of the league, over time. The 2014 line can dip, since we're only a quarter of the way through the games and nearing the number of 10+ games from previous seasons, but this year's performance relative to the league still shows us below-average for this season, which obviously isn't the case. That league-wide number for this season should be below our line. Or the data point should just not exist at all if the data is not good or readily available, making it clear that our performance is above average in this regard this season.
That, or I'm reading the graph wrong.

 

[Idgit]

I think it does I think when teams respect the run the tend to bite harder on the play action that is not to say they do not react to a lesser running team but they know poor running teams more times than not will be throwing it and will just go after the QB with an eye on the RB. Do that with this OL and Murray he is going to run over you. I also think as you continue to hammer on DL it slows them up. Run blocking it attacking while pass block the OL is defending you want to take the wind out of a defense pound on them

My guess is that the thought process goes 'this team runs a lot of play action (whether they're good at running the ball or not), so I'd better not bite to hard here,' rather than 'this running back is better than other running backs, so I'd better respect play action.' But I agree that that sounds counterintuitive. I'm just curious what ends up being the case, statistically.

 

[jazzcat22]

Thanks Bob, great stuff as usual. Always learn something from this.

 

[Doomsday101]

My guess is that the thought process goes 'this team runs a lot of play action (whether they're good at running the ball or not), so I'd better not bite to hard here,' rather than 'this running back is better than other running backs, so I'd better respect play action.' But I agree that that sounds counterintuitive. I'm just curious what ends up being the case, statistically.

But defense looks at tape they do have a sense of what a team will do. There are some back that will cause a defense to stand up and take notice, they know this RB has the ability to hurt them. Other backs don't they are not hard to bring down and you are more willing to not bite on the play action as much. When Dallas faced Tenn, Tenn did not think Dallas would run it as they did they never slowed their rush even on play action they just attacked and got 4 sacks in the game but in the end that cost them

 

[Idgit]

But defense looks at tape they do have a sense of what a team will do. There are some back that will cause a defense to stand up and take notice, they know this RB has the ability to hurt them. Other backs don't they are not hard to bring down and you are more willing to not bite on the play action as much. When Dallas faced Tenn, Tenn did not think Dallas would run it as they did they never slowed their rush even on play action they just attacked and got 4 sacks in the game but in the end that cost them

There's tendencies, and then there's the ability of the team to be effective rushing the ball. Tendencies, we agree, teams are going to key off of that. But if you think a bad back is going to be running the ball, do you really hesitate an extra second to check for the pass? Because if you do, if enough teams do, it stands to reason that that bad back's numbers are not going to look so bad over time, since he's getting the benefit of teams not biting on his rushing threat as quickly.
It makes more sense to assume teams key off of tendencies without regard for how effective your team is at running or passing. Now, of course, you're unlikely to have a lot of tendencies that you're not effective with, but, for something like play action where the fake is enough to help even a predominant passing team, it doesn't really hurt you much to threaten the run even if you're not particularly good at it. Right?

 

[Sturm1310]

Re: play action...is it really the case that more effective running teams are more effective using play action than less effective ones? I know it seems intuitively that that would be the case, but I've never seen it supported, one way or another. It's not like the LB isn't going to be as aggressive diagnosing a run from a weaker running team than he is a good running team, after all.

Now, I can see how a defense would study tendencies and bet more prepared for play action against one offense than they would another. But that's more a function of play calling than it is rushing effectiveness. Just something I've always been curious about.

Also, Bob, for the 2014 league data in your (great) 10-yard-rushing chart, am I reading that wrong, or should that number be an average number that's a lot lower at this point than the Cowboys' 22 early 10-yard-+ rushes? Because the chart makes us look like we're below average again this year, which is not really the intention...

First, I agree. There is very little supportive data that says PA works better with a better running game. But, it is more deployment of troops. They all still bite on a good run fake. But against a strong running team, those troops might be deployed more in the box.

And yes, on the chart, the NFL average line is for full seasons. The Cowboys have the most in 2014, so the league average is actually 11, but I am pointing out how close they are to the full season league average ALREADY.

thanks-

Bob

 

[Idgit]

First, I agree. There is very little supportive data that says PA works better with a better running game. But, it is more deployment of troops. They all still bite on a good run fake. But against a strong running team, those troops might be deployed more in the box.

And yes, on the chart, the NFL average line is for full seasons. The Cowboys have the most in 2014, so the league average is actually 11, but I am pointing out how close they are to the full season league average ALREADY.

thanks-

Bob

Thanks, Bob, on both counts. I know the play action effectiveness data isn't readily available; I'm just always curious about what the numbers would say if it were.

Good stuff, all around. In particular, the explanation how to evaluate the average-to-go data is great detail for what's already a content-rich post.

 

[Sturm1310]

Thanks, Bob, on both counts. I know the play action effectiveness data isn't readily available; I'm just always curious about what the numbers would say if it were.

Good stuff, all around. In particular, the explanation how to evaluate the average-to-go data is great detail for what's already a content-rich post.

Of course, it should be noted that the Cowboys have been very effective on play action when they were horrid at running the ball. They just elected to never run it - partly because they were almost never under center. Shotgun playaction exists, but more of a read option which relies more on a run-threat QB.